|
playtowin
Restricted User
Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8329
|
World Series Game 1***2013
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Playing Game 1 @ H:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team playing Game 1 @ home (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 819-400 (.672)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 162-83 (.661)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 89-71 (.556)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 60-44 (.577)
Game 1 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 820-399 (.673)
Game 1 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 165-80 (.673)
Game 1 record, MLB only, all rounds: 91-69 (.569)
Game 1 record, MLB only, Finals round: 62-42 (.596)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
SERIES NOTES:
Pre-series assessment: In the 2013 MLB regular season, Boston finished tied with St. Louis in terms of regular season record (97-65 each). From 1905 through the 2013 MLB Semifinals round, inclusive, the MLB team with home field advantage in such a situation (Boston) posted a 4-1 (.800) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1220 is the 30th best-of-7 MLB playoff series for St. Louis, and the 20th for Boston. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, St. Louis has a 17-12 series record, an 11-7 Finals-round series record, and a 12-17 Game 1 record (with an active three-Game 1 winning streak), while Boston has a 10-9 series record, a 6-4 Finals-round record, and an 11-8 Game 1 record. Series 1220 is the fourth best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between St. Louis and Boston: St. Louis won series 59 (the 1946 MLB Finals) and 186 (the 1967 MLB Finals); Boston won series 938 (the 2004 MLB Finals).
|
10-23-13 07:41 PM |
|
|
| |
|
playtowin
Restricted User
Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8329
|
ADDING
St. Louis Cardinals 97-65 (60%) @ Boston Red Sox 97-65 (60%)
A. Wainwright, my #5 ranked SP, starting for St. Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 2.55 (#4 in MLB), xFIP of 2.8 (#4 in MLB), tERA of 3.22 (#10 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.01 (#7 in MLB), with a BABIP of .305, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of 0.39. He has a K/BB ratio of 6.26, with a WHIP of 1.07, and opponent BA of .244. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 49%, FB%: 28% for a 1.78 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
J. Lester, my #62 ranked SP, starting for Boston Red Sox, has a FIP of 3.59 (#56 in MLB), xFIP of 3.9 (#79 in MLB), tERA of 4.03 (#49 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.97 (#75 in MLB), with a BABIP of .3, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.17. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.64, with a WHIP of 1.29, and opponent BA of .252. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 35% for a 1.27 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
St. Louis Cardinals have the #3 bullpen, #10 offense (#6 vs Righties / #20 vs Lefties), and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a road record of 43-38 (53%), ranked #6 in MLB and have Won 6 in a row.
Boston Red Sox have the #11 bullpen, #1 offense (#1 vs Righties / #8 vs Lefties), and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a home record of 53-28 (65%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Odds: STL +114 (47%) BOS -123 (55%) O/U = 7
|
10-23-13 11:38 PM |
|
|
| |
|