What the MLB handicapping world needs now is another system to rate starting pitchers, right? No? Well, I've come up with one anyway.

Jeff Sagarin maintains a very useful site for free stats. But rankings are according to a computation that claims to quantify "what the pitcher's ERA 'should be' (NPERA) given his raw statistics 'normalized' to composite major league play of 1946-1999." It's supposed to be "the best real-life measure of the pitcher's true pitching value."

Thus, Mariano Rivera---with 30 saves and 1.83 ERA over 34.1 innings pitched so far this season---is ranked 36th in the "B Group" (31-93 IP) with a 2.92 NPERA. Nonsense.

The Sagarin stats also include a "Rickey" rating ((IP-H) + (SO-(W+HBP)) = ((IP+SO) - (H+W+HBP)). This number seems to have more realistic comparative value---but I can't figure out exactly how it's calculated.

So...I've landed on my own version of the Rickey approach. I call it the BUZZ. It averages plus or minus points in each of five current-season stat categories relative to a "competency mean" (in parentheses):

1. ERA (4.00)
2. Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched (6.00)
3. MOB, or walks+hits+hit batters per 9 innings (12.00)
4. OPS, or opponents on-base+slugging percentages (.700)
5. K:BB, or strikeouts-to-walks ratio (3.00:1)

For both leagues, starters with 90+ innings pitched are marked with two asterisks (**). One star (*) denotes starters with 50-90 IP in the AL and 40-90 IP in the NL. In cases of BUZZ number ties, the pitcher with more innings pitched gets the higher ranking.

American League Team Buzz
1. Scherzer, Max** DET 2.26
2. Darvish, Yu** TEX 2.16
3. Sale, Chris** CHW 2.01
4. Iwakuma, Hisashi** SEA 1.94
5. Hernandez, Felix** SEA 1.90
6. Buchholz, Clay* BOS 1.84
7. Sanchez, Anibal** DET 1.79
8. Lackey, John** BOS 1.24
9. Cobb, Alex* TBR 1.08
10. Kuroda, Hiroki** NYY 1.06

11. Peavy, Jake* CHW 1.04
12. Santana, Ervin** KCR 0.92
13. Colon, Bartolo** OAK 0.89
14. Kluber, Corey** CLE 0.88
15. Holland, Derek** TEX 0.87
16. Price, David* TBR 0.79
17. Masterson, Justin** CLE 0.77
18. Griffin, A.J.** OAK 0.75
19. Nova, Ivan* NYY 0.75
20. Danks, John* CHW 0.72

21. Shields, James** KCR 0.69
22. Santiago, Hector* CHW 0.67
23. Quintana, Jose** CHW 0.65
24. Moore, Matt** TBR 0.63
25. Verlander, Justin** DET 0.60
26. Sabathia, CC** NYY 0.59
27. Straily, Dan* OAK 0.58
28. Feldman, Scott** BAL 0.50
29. Archer, Chris* TBR 0.47
30. Hellickson, Jeremy** TBR 0.46

31. Wilson, C.J.** LAA 0.43
32. Porcello, Rick** DET 0.42
33. Fister, Doug** DET 0.38
34. Gonzalez, Miguel** BAL 0.38
35. Ogando, Alexi* TEX 0.34
36. Chen, Wei-Yin* BAL 0.29
37. Weaver, Jered* LAA 0.27
38. Hughes, Phil** NYY 0.17
39. Milone, Tommy** OAK 0.13
40. Doubront, Felix** BOS 0.10

41. Parker, Jarrod** OAK -0.01
42. Kazmir, Scott* CLE -0.01
43. Tepesch, Nick* TEX -0.03
44. Harang, Aaron* SEA -0.04
45. Johnson, Josh* TOR -0.10
46. Dempster, Ryan** BOS -0.12
47. Tillman, Chris** BAL -0.13
48. Lester, Jon** BOS -0.18
49. Rogers, Esmil* TOR -0.18
50. Hernandez, Roberto** TBR -0.19

51. Jimenez, Ubaldo** CLE -0.24
52. Vargas, Jason** LAA -0.24
53. Norris, Bud** HOU -0.26
54. McAllister, Zach* CLE -0.28
55. Phelps, David* NYY -0.29
56. Richards, Garrett* LAA -0.29
57. Pettitte, Andy** NYY -0.30
58. Dickey, R.A.** TOR -0.39
59. Lyles, Jordan* HOU -0.39
60. Buehrle, Mark** TOR -0.57

61. Deduno, Samuel* MIN -0.59
62. Williams, Jerome** LAA -0.60
63. Keuchel, Dallas* HOU -0.64
64. Bedard, Erik** HOU -0.67
65. Correia, Kevin** MIN -0.73
66. Blanton, Joe** LAA -0.80
67. Hammel, Jason** BAL -0.92
68. Morrow, Brandon* TOR -0.94
69. Saunders, Joe** SEA -1.06
70. Guthrie, Jeremy** KCR -1.07

71. Mendoza, Luis* KCR -1.10
72. Davis, Wade** KCR -1.25
73. Grimm, Justin* TEX -1.42
74. Pelfrey, Mike* MIN -1.46
75. Axelrod, Dylan** CHW -1.50
76. Diamond, Scott** MIN -1.55
77. Harrell, Lucas** HOU -1.76

National League Team Buzz
1. Harvey, Matt** NYM 2.71
2. Wainwright, Adam** STL 2.53
3. Kershaw, Clayton** LAD 2.26
4. Lee, Cliff** PHI 2.00
5. Bumgarner, Madison** SFG 1.77
6. Zimmermann, Jordan**WSN 1.66
7. Miller, Shelby** STL 1.59
8. Liriano, Francisco* PIT 1.56
9. Minor, Mike** ATL 1.48
10. Gorzelanny, Tom* MIL 1.48

11. Corbin, Patrick** ARI 1.42
12. Cingrani, Tony* CIN 1.42
13. Fernandez, Jose** MIA 1.40
14. Burnett, A.J.** PIT 1.29
15. Strasburg, Stephen** WSN 1.19
16. Bailey, Homer** CIN 1.15
17. Gonzalez, Gio** WSN 1.06
18. Gaudin, Chad* SFG 1.06
19. Cueto, Johnny* CIN 1.03
20. Latos, Mat** CIN 0.97

21. Wood, Travis** CHC 0.92
22. Garza, Matt* CHC 0.88
23. Turner, Jacob* MIA 0.69
24. Rodriguez, Wandy* PIT 0.63
25. Lynn, Lance** STL 0.61
26. Locke, Jeff** PIT 0.61
27. Samardzija, Jeff** CHC 0.60
28. Teheran, Julio** ATL 0.60
29. Lincecum, Tim** SFG 0.58
30. Hefner, Jeremy** NYM 0.58

31. Hamels, Cole** PHI 0.54
32. Ryu, Hyun-Jin** LAD 0.51
33. Nolasco, Ricky** LAD 0.50
34. Leake, Mike** CIN 0.48
35. Cain, Matt** SFG 0.42
36. Stults, Eric** SDP 0.43
37. Lohse, Kyle** MIL 0.38
38. Fife, Stephen* LAD 0.30
39. Hudson, Tim** ATL 0.27
40. Villanueva, Carlos* CHC 0.27

41. Garcia, Jaime* STL 0.27
42. Greinke, Zack* LAD 0.26
43. Gomez, Jeanmar* PIT 0.26
44. Arroyo, Bronson** CIN 0.22
45. Chatwood, Tyler* COL 0.17
46. Slowey, Kevin** MIA 0.12
47. De La Rosa, Jorge** COL 0.07
48. Chacin, Jhoulys** COL -0.01
49. Cashner, Andrew** SDP -0.01
50. Capuano, Chris* LAD -0.06

51. Kendrick, Kyle** PHI -0.07
52. Figaro, Alfredo* MIL -0.07
53. Estrada, Marco* MIL -0.10
54. Kelly, Joe* STL -0.11
55. Cole, Gerrit* PIT -0.14
56. Medlen, Kris** ATL -0.15
57. Haren, Dan** WSN -0.16
58. Maholm, Paul** ATL -0.29
59. Gee, Dillon** NYM -0.30
60. Miley, Wade** ARI -0.31

61. Marcum, Shaun* NYM -0.34
62. Jackson, Edwin** CHC -0.35
63. Lannan, John* PHI -0.40
64. Beckett, Josh* LAD -0.42
65. Gallardo, Yovani** MIL -0.45
66. Pettibone, Jonathan** PHI -0.52
67. McCarthy, Brandon* ARI -0.56
68. Kennedy, Ian** ARI -0.58
69. Cahill, Trevor** ARI -0.67
70. Nicasio, Juan* COL -0.68

71. Westbrook, Jake* STL -0.88
72. Marquis, Jason** SDP -0.89
73. Detwiler, Ross* WSN -0.89
74. Peralta, Wily** MIL -0.90
75. Volquez, Edinson** SDP -1.02
76. Niese, Jonathon* NYM -1.10
77. Francis, Jeff* COL -1.17
78. Zito, Barry** SFG -1.39
79. Vogelsong, Ryan* SFG -1.72

These lists include some pitchers currently on the DL (and maybe a few who might not be back this year). Not included are several now slated for starting jobs but not with enough experience to compare with anyone---yet.

My objective has been to quantify matchup edges using a scale that relates more realistically to betting lines. The +/- threshholds (competency means) were chosen with that in mind.

are captivating, and I always have had to take a close look at Andy Iskoe's and needless to say in times gone by at the Buzzard Edge Values, so I'm intrigued by the new "Buzz" rankings. Always frustrating however to translate the pitcher ranking into a betting strategy. What weight to give a superior pitching competence, for instance, against a certain offensive number. The old question, "How much does a good defense count against a good offense" The same in every sport.

I am eager to follow your rankings, hope you will put them out daily or at least frequently.

Regards,

Lem

Love this Buzz, will make good use of it in the 2nd half. Thanks for sharing!