Allen Moody
Sports Gambling Guide

The second round of the playoffs obviously has fewer games to analyze than the first, but there definitely have been some noticeable betting trends that have stood out in the second round, often in direct contrast to the first round and what has taken place there.

Using my Stat Attack NBA 2012-13 program, I discovered that the home teams were definitely getting the best of the visiting teams, going 74-36 straight up and a solid 66-42-2 ATS.

Breaking it down, home favorites were an impressive 60-30-1 against the spread, while home underdogs were a poor 6-12-1. Common sense would appear to dictate that underdogs in the second round should perform better--as most of the weaker teams should have been eliminated in the first round--but that hasn't been the way things have panned out and it's one of the reasons that makes sports betting such a fascinating endeavor.

Looking at our customary breakdown:
Home Favorite of 2.5 or less points: 15-5
Home Favorite of 3 to 5.5 points: 12-9-1
Home Favorite of 6 to 9.5 points: 26-16
Home Favorite of 10 to 14.5 points: 7-0

Home favorites performed well in all categories, especially as extremely small or larger favorites. It was a bit surprising to see double-digit favorites doing so well, as you would think large underdogs in the second round would put up a better fight, but they've lost by an average of more than 20 points.

Home Underdog of 2.5 or less points: 2-8
Home Underdog of 3 to 5.5 points: 1-3
Home Underdog of 6 to 9.5 points: 3-1
Home Underdog of 10 to 14.5 points: 0-0-1

The larger home underdogs, of six or more points did well, although the sample size is just five games, but the smaller home dogs were pretty bad, going just 3-11.

Totals
Switching over to totals, we'll see that all games have gone 57-51-2, which is a direct contrast to the first round, where games fell under the number more often than not.

Moving ahead to our totals breakdown:
Total of 170 to 179.5: 13-7
Total of 180 to 184.5: 7-11
Total of 185 to 189.5: 10-10
Total of 190 to 194.5: 11-9
Total of 195 to 199.5: 3-10
Total of 200 to 204.5: 3-1
Total of 205 to 209.5: 5-1-1
Total of 210 to 214.5: 5-1-1
Total of 215 to 219.5: 0-1

There are definitely two clusters that jump out and grab your attention; the totals less than 179.5, as well as the group of games that had a posted total of at least 200, which are a combined 13-4-2. The interesting aspect of 180 to 184.5 grouping is that games with a total of 183 to 184.5 were 1-6, meaning that all games with a total of 182.5 or less were 19-12, a bit more than 60% over.

NBA playoff betting: Round 2 trends and stats
By MARC LAWRENCE

With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s on to Round 2 where a series upset is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout the second round playoff action, along with a few tempting team trends.

All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise.

No. 1 for a reason

One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds: Never lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 16-27-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss, lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS.

And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS.

Tripped out favorites

Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not fare well when laying points in Round 2.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams laying points off three consecutive losses that are 3-13 ATS in these games.

Worse, if they dropped their last game straight up as a favorite, these teams generally fall off the map and out of the playoffs, going 3-7 SU and 0-10 ATS.

Role reversals

You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs certainly are.

Round 2 dogs (or picks) off a straight-up loss as a favorite are a 58 percent ATS proposition, going 32-23 ATS.

When changing roles off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, these pick-of-the-litter plays bark to the tune of 12-6 ATS, including 11-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of less than .675 on the season.

Running on empty

Home favorites that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 21-9-1 ATS mark by Round 2 favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 16-3 ATS, including 13-1 when laying four or more points.

Tantalizing playoff trends

Chicago: 5-1-1 ATS in second round versus .696 greater opponent
Golden State: 0-3-1 ATS in second round off a win
Indiana: 0-5 ATS as second-round favorite off ATS win 18 or more points
Memphis: 0-3 ATS in second round vs. opponent off loss
Miami: 7-0 ATS second round off double-digit loss
New York: 5-1 ATS as second-round double-digit dog
Oklahoma City: 0-5 ATS in second round off win 20 or more points
San Antonio: 8-1 ATS as second-round home favorite more than 8 points

NBA Playoff Betting: Beware of the two seeds in the second round
Saturday, April 16, 2011 12:00 AM ET

The NBA Playoffs are here, and in the second round over the last 10 years, the two seeds have performed much better than the one seeds on a game by game basis against the spread. Also, going against lower seeds coming off of first round upsets has worked great over the last decade, as teams that are seeded fifth or lower that have made it to this round have been 65 percent fades.

The NBA Playoffs are here, so we are continuing out analysis of the last 10 playoff seasons to seek our trends that are specific to each round. We gave you our first round playoff trends last time, and this week we are moving on to the second round, or the conference semifinals. All results discussed in this article are based on the closing betting odds from Pinnacle Sports for every NBA Playoff games since the 2000-01 Season.

Favorites have not fares as well in the second round as they did in the first, going only 115-105-8, 52.3 percent against the NBA odds, which is right at the breakeven point betting wise. However, home favorite have remained profitable at 104-88-5, 54.2 percent against the spread in this round. That said however, second round home favorites slipped to just 7-8 ATS last year, so perhaps the pendulum is starting to shift toward the road underdogs.

All home teams regardless of the line are 121-100-8, 54.8 percent in NBA betting in the second round over the last 10 years, but the home teams were only 8-10 ATS last season.

The ever popular Zigzag Theory, which says to bet on the team that lost the previous game since that team should play with a greater sense of desperation, has been a bust the last 10 years in the second round, going just 88-95-7, 48.1 percent against the NBA betting odds after working so well in the first round. In case you were wondering, no it is not worthwhile to blindly play that team that won its last game either, as the 51.9 percent won rate is not goof enough.

That said, the latter counter Zigzag mentality did work well last season in these conference semifinals, as betting on the teams that won the previous game yielded a sparkling 11-3, 78.6 percent mark. Then again, keep in mind that the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic all swept their second round series, so that anomaly certainly skewed the results.

Now let us take a look at specific trends for each individual seed in the second round since 2001.

1 seed: You would not have made any money blindly betting all games involving one seeds in the second the last 10 years, as they are a nondescript 54-53-4, 50.5 percent ATS overall. Furthermore, that record does not improve much when they have been at home, an just 31-28-1 ATS. However, the top seeds have been goof bets as underdogs in this round, at 19-14-3, 57.6 percent. Surprisingly, top seeds have been great fades coming off of a loss, which one would think would be a great spot to bet on them. Instead, one seeds are 13-22-1 ATS off of a loss in the second round for a great 62.9 percent fade.

2 seed: Unlike the top seeds, the two seeds have been solid bets in this conference semifinal round, going 60-46-3, 56.6 percent ATS in all games. They have been fantastic at home in this round, going 33-19-3, 63.5 percent, but they are only 27-27 vs. the number on the road. The two seeds have been at their best as favorites, going 39-23-1, 63.9 percent in that role including 33-18-3 as home favorites. They have also bounced back very well off of losses, going 25-14-1, 64.2 percent in Zigzag spots overall including going a blistering 14-4 ATS in home Zigzag spots.

3 seed: The three seeds are only 37-38-1 ATS overall in the second round, although the smart play has been to simply play the home team in all games involving the three seeds. This is because they are a solid 23-17, 57.5 percent ATS at home, but just 14-21-3 ATS on the road for a prime 60.0 percent fade. It should be noted that all but two of those road games have been against two seeds, and since they are 2-0 ATS when visiting seven seeds, that means that the threes re 12-21-3 for a 83.6 percent fade when visiting two seeds. Three seeds are a solid 20-13-2, 60.6 percent as favorites, and they were at home on all but one of those occasions.

4 seed: The four seeds have also been good bets in the second round, going 41-31-5, 56.9 percent ATS overall, a feat made more impressive by the fact that all bit one of their second round series has come vs. top seeds, with the lone exception being a matchup with the eighth seeded Golden State Warriors in 2007. The four seeds are a great 20-12-4, 62.5 percent at home, and they are even over .500 on the road at 21-18-1 ATS. They have been at their best as underdogs, going 28-19-1, 59.6 percent in that role including a phenomenal 7-1-1, 87.5 percent ATS as home underdogs.

Now that we have gotten past the top four seeds, the remaining seeds pulled off first round upset to advance to this conference semifinal round. Apparently, those first round upsets took a lot out of these teams, as all clubs seeded fifth or higher are a collective 29-53-1, 35.4 percent in this round! And now back to out study of each individual seed.

5 seed: The five seeds had to upset the four seeds in the first round to get to this point, and they have gone just 15-24 ATS in the second round for a 61.5 percent fade. The five seeds have been favored 10 times in this round, obviously all at home, and they are just 3-7 on those occasions.

6 seed; The six seeds had to upset the three seeds in the first round to advance to this round, and these often emotionally sapped teams have gone 13-22 ATS for a 62.9 percent fade. These sic seeds have been favored 13 times in the second round, and they went 5-8 ATS in those games, which is right in line with the overall ATS rate. The fade percentage is a bit better on the rare occasions when the six seeds are coming off of a win, as they are 3-8 ATS in those games for a 72.7 percent fade.

7 seed: Believe it or not, the seventh seeded San Antonio Spurs last season became the only seven seeds to advance to the second round in the last 10 years after they knocked off the second seeded Dallas Mavericks in the opening round. The Spurs then proved that fading teams coming off of first round upsets even works for veteran teams too, as they were promptly swept away by the Phoenix Suns while also going 0-4 ATS.

8 seed: One of the nicest stories of the past decade in the NBA Playoffs came in 2007, when the eighth seeded Golden State Warriors became the first and still only eight seed to knock off a one seed in the first round. The poor Dallas Mavericks were the victims that year also, earning them the dubious distinction of being the only NBA team to lose to a seventh seed in the last decade and the only NBA team to even lose to an eighth seed. Well, just as with the other lower seeds, the Warriors could not stand the prosperity that season as they went 1-3-1 ATS in this second round while getting knocked out by the Utah Jazz.