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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Cnotes College Basketball Best Bets Thru March Madess !
Early Tournament Previews
March 1, 2013
It's time to get acquainted with some new teams!
While we have made reference to the much-publicized "Selection Sunday" looming on the horizon (Mar. 17) for the fast-approaching NCAA Tournament, that's also the day the other postseason tourneys announce their fields as well. And, as we know, all of the surviving "off" conference teams suddenly become "on the board" teams in those various events.
A handful of these leagues have had numbers posted this season in the "added games" at most Las Vegas sports books, so a decent number of teams are already somewhat familiar. Still, some leagues will be making their debuts on the "big board" in the next few weeks, and it makes sense to familiarize ourselves with the best of this lower-echelon lot, which will be getting more exposure in coming days. Last year, the likes of Mercer, Fairfield, Oakland, and a few others provided multiple wagering opportunities as they progressed in the various postseason competitions.
The rather recent introduction of two new events (the CollegeInsider.com Tourney, or CIT, and the College Basketball Invitational, or CBI) has provided more non-Big Dance opportunities for entries from the low-major conferences. Many of these loops are now sending multiple entries to the postseason, so it behooves handicappers to begin paying attention to these sides before they enter either the Big Dance, NIT, CBI, or CIT.
We've already gotten a look at several of these teams in last weekend's BracketBusters, and many of the upcoming conference tournaments will be televised (the introduction of ESPN-3, which streams on computers, has added countless more college hoops viewing opportunities and will be providing added coverage for many of the lower-rung D-I conference tourneys). Many Las Vegas sports books will also be offering prices on these lower-echelon conference tourney matchups, and will most assuredly be posting prices whenever teams from those leagues are involved in NIT, CBI, or CIT action.
We've listed below, by conference alphabetical order, upcoming tournament specifics for those lower-profile Division I leagues. Also included are any teams that enjoy homecourt tourney edges; the top contenders in each loop, noted by italics, with any clear-cut favorite or co-favorite accompanied by an *; a quick preview of the tourneys; and last season's conference results in the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT. Before Selection Sunday, we'll also review how these leagues have fared in recent Big Dance action.
March Mayhem has arrived!
AMERICA EAST...First round, quarterfinals, and semis March 7, 9-10 at SEFCU Arena, Albany, NY (home court of Albany); final March 12 at home of highest remaining seed. Top contenders--Stony Brook, Boston U, Vermont. Steve Pikiell's Stony Brook Seawolves have assumed command of the league race in recent weeks and will almost assuredly enter the conference tourney as the top seed. Though down three starters from last year's NIT qualifier, Pikiell nonetheless added the AE's Newcomer of the Year, battering ram 6-8 frosh PF Jameel Warney, who leads all Seawolves scorers at 12.1 ppg while hitting better than 62% of his FG attempts (mostly from short range). In a league without many quality bigs, the 255-lb. Warney has become the loop's most feared interior scoring threat. Over the last five games, Warney is hitting an even more eye-opening 73.1% from the floor. The backcourt has an upperclassmen look to it with jr. Gs Dave Coley (top-notch defender) and Anthony Jackson, while 6-5 sr. F Tommy Brenton was the AE's Defender of the Year last season. Keep an eye, however, on the Boston U Terriers, who entered Thursday's showdown with Stony Brook having won six in a row, with frosh G Maurice Watson, Jr. posting some big numbers in recent games. We also wouldn't sleep on Vermont, which beat CAA leader Northeastern and Ivy leader Harvard in pre-league play and just dispatched dangerous Canisius in the BracketBusters. Four starters returned for the Catamounts from last year's conference tourney winner and NCAA qualifier, joined by Illinois State transfer G Trey Blue, who broke into the starting lineup in early February and has scored in double digits in four of his last five games. Last year...NCAA-Vermont lost vs. North Carolina, 77-58; NIT-Stony Brook lost vs. Seton Hall, 63-61; CIT-Albany lost vs. Manhattan, 89-79.
ATLANTIC SUN...Tourney March 6-9 at University Center, Macon, GA (home court of Mercer). Top contenders-Mercer, Florida Gulf Coast, Stetson. By winning eight straight prior to a showdown on Thursday vs. FGCU, Mercer has guaranteed itself the top seed in next week's conference tourney, contested on its own home floor. Better yet for the Bears, there's no Belmont to worry about in this year's A-Sun, with the Bruins having moved their act to the Ohio Valley. Remember, Mercer ran the table to a surprise win in the CIT last year and returns much of that team for HC Bob Hoffman, including Gs Langston Hall (a lanky 6-4 and a good defensive stopper as well) and Travis Smith, both scoring in double digits. Fort Myers-based FGCU made some headlines way back in November when upsetting Miami-Florida, and the Eagles were not embarrassed in other non-league games at Duke and Iowa State. Sherwood Brown, a powerful 6-4 sr. G, has emerged as a compelling force (scoring 15.8 ppg) for the Eagles, who appear to have the best chance vs. Mercer. Last year...NCAA-Belmont lost vs. Georgetown, 74-59; CIT-Mercer won vs. Tennessee State, 68-60; won vs. Georgia State, 64-59; won at Old Dominion, 79-73; won at Fairfield, 64-59; won at Utah State in title game, 70-67; USC-Upstate won vs. Kent State, 73-58; lost at Old Dominion, 65-56.
BIG SKY...Tourney March 14-16 at home of regular-season champion (Montana or Weber State). Top contenders-Montana, Weber State. They've been anticipating another Big Sky Tourney showdown between the Grizzlies and Wildcats since prior to Thanksgiving. The teams split their two regular-season meetings, the home side winning each, which could mean advantage Montana in the tourney as the Grizzlies hold a one-game lead over Weber in the conference table entering the weekend. The Grizzlies really hit stride in mid-December when leading returning scorer G Will Cherry overcame an early-season foot injury; Montana quickly embarked upon a 14-game SU win streak when Cherry (13.2 ppg) returned to the starting lineup. There could be problems, however; Cherry re-injured his foot in the BracketBusters OT loss at Davidson, and sr. F Mathias Ward (leading scorer this season at 14.8 ppg) looks to be out for a longer duration with his own foot injury suffered last week. Weber State is now the in-form side with seven wins on the trot (including an 87-63 romp at Ogden vs. Montana on Valentine's Day night) entering Thursday's game vs. Sac State. Vet HC Randy Rahe has an athletic squad bolstered by Cal State Monterey Bay Sea Otter transfer Davion Berry, an explosive 6-4 G scoring 15 ppg and shooting 50% from the floor. Note that this tourney has changed its format slightly from last season, with the entire event scheduled at the regular-season winner, even if it isn't involved in the title game. Last year...NCAA-Montana lost vs. Wisconsin, 73-49; CIT-Weber State won vs. Utah Valley State, 72-69; lost in OT at Loyola-Marymount, 84-78.
BIG SOUTH...Tourney March 5, 7, 9-10 at HTC Center, Conway, SC (home court of Coastal Carolina); Top contenders-High Point, Charleston Southern, Gardner-Webb. Regional sources are alerting to the recent uptick from Gardner-Webb, the only Big South contender to win its BracketBuster last week (vs. College of Charleston) and carrying a six-game SU win streak into Saturday's reg.-season finale vs. the Presbyterian Blue Hose. The Runnin' Bulldogs from Boiling Springs, NC also just knocked off contender Charleston Southern at midweek, though high scorer and former Mississippi Valley State transfer G, explosive Tashan Newsome (14.1 ppg), has been in a recent shooting slump (just 11 of 45 FGs and 8 ppg last four). Newsome had previously posted four straight 20+-point efforts. High Point, coached by former North Carolina player and George Mason (during the Final Four year) assistant Scott Cherry, might be flattening out a bit with two straight losses following a 7-game win streak. But Panther 6-7 frosh F G John Brown (17 ppg) has clearly been the league's top newcomer. As for Charleston Southern, note that the Buccaneers were competitive vs. a variety of high-profile foes (Charlotte, Arizona, Alabama, Wichita State) in pre-league play. Last year...NCAA-UNC-Asheville lost vs. Syracuse, 72-65; CIT-Coastal Carolina lost at Old Dominion, 68-66.
METRO ATLANTIC...Tourney March 7-11 at MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA. First round pits seeds 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9; winners advance to quarterfinals, and so forth. Top contenders-Niagara, Iona, Loyola-Maryland, Canisius, Rider, Fairfield. Absolutely wide-open conference tourney in Springfield, where more than half of the loop believes it has a legit shot to win the event. Several star performers in league, mostly guards, led by Niagara soph G Antoine Mason (18.9 ppg; 23.3 ppg last three), Iona's dynamite backcourt due of Momo Jones (23 ppg) and Sean Armand (17.4 ppg), Loyola-Maryland's Dylan Cormier (17.1 ppg), and Canisius' Billy Baron (formerly Virginia & Rhode Island and son of HC Jim Baron; 16.9 ppg), Harold "The Mayor" Washington (13.4 ppg), and another transfer, ex-UCF G Issac Sosa (12.1 ppg). Well-regarded coaches as well, including Loyola's entertaining Jimmy Patsos (he of the wild sideline gyrations) and the aforementioned Jim Baron, a longtime Digger Phelps aide at Notre Dame and an accomplished mentor at St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island before landing the Canisius gig. Last year...NCAA-Loyola-Maryland lost vs. Ohio State, 78-59; CIT-Fairfield won vs. Yale, 68-56; won vs. Manhattan, 69-57; won vs. Robert Morris, 67-61; lost vs. Mercer, 64-59; Manhattan won at Albany, 89-79; lost vs. Fairfield, 67-57; Rider lost at Northern Iowa, 84-50.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-02-13 12:19 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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MEAC...Tourney March 11-16 at the Scope, Norfolk, VA (not the home court of Norfolk State, which plays its games at Echols Hall); First round pits seed 4 vs. 13, 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, and 8 vs. 9; winners advance to quarterfinals, and so forth, Top contenders-Norfolk State, NC-Central, Savannah State. Fans of the old ABA might recall the venue for this year's MEAC Tourney, the Norfolk Scope, then a rather new facility when one of the "regional" homes (along with the nearby Hampton-Roads Coliseum in the Tidewater area, the Roanoke Civic Center, and the Richmond Coliseum) in the early 1970s for the old Virginia Squires, Julius Erving's first pro team. Norfolk State, which stunned Missouri in last year's Big Dance, no longer can count upon frontliner Kyle O'Quinn (now with the NBA Orlando Magic), but the Spartans are unbeaten in league play entering this weekend. A truly top-heavy league, with Norfolk, NC-Central, and Savannah State head and shoulders above the rest of the loop (and the only teams above .500 for the season in the alliance). Last year...NCAA-Norfolk State won vs. Missouri, 86-84; lost vs. Florida, 84-50; NIT-Savannah State lost vs. Tennessee, 65-51.
NORTHEAST...Quarterfinals March 6, semis March 9, final March 12, all at home of highest seed. Top contenders-Robert Morris, Bryant, Wagner, Long Island, Quinnipiac. Another wide-open-looking conference tourney, although Robert Morris, the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport, has moved to the lead in the conference race with wins in six of its last seven games. A well-balanced squad featuring four DD scorers (including all-name F Lucky Jones), the Colonials advanced the quarterfinals of the CIT last season and opened some eyes with a couple of impressive pre-league efforts, including a home upset of Ohio U, another home win over Cleveland State when the Vikings were healthy and had F Anton Grady in the lineup, and a near-miss at Arkansas. Bryant, led by Columbia transfer F Dyami Starks (17.9 ppg), has been one of the nation's best storylines after winning just twice last season. Bob Beckel's alma mater Wagner is the deepest team in the league (bench goes 10 deep) and features rugged PF Jonathon Williams (15 ppg). Last year...NCAA-Long Island lost vs. Michigan State, 89-67; CIT-Robert Morris won at Indiana State, 67-60; won at Toledo, 69-51; lost at Fairfield, 67-61; CBI-Quinnipiac lost at Penn, 74-63.
OHIO VALLEY...Tourney March 6-9 at Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, TN (not the home court of Nashville-based Tennessee State, which plays its games at the Gentry Complex, or Nashville-based Belmont, which plays its games at the Mike Curb Events Center). Top contenders-Belmont, Murray State, Eastern Kentucky. Belmont's move from the Atlantic Sun has strengthened the OVC, and the Bruins' recent whip job of Ohio in the BracketBusters suggests that Rick Byrd's team also has a decent Big Dance at-large argument (especially with its RPI in the low 20s) should it lose in this event. And having the tourney conducted across town from campus at the old Nashville Municipal Auditorium should be a plus. Star G Ian Clark (18.4 ppg) could be a breakout performer in March. Keep an eye, however, on defending loop champ Murray State and star G Isaiah Canaan (21.2 ppg), familiar to many for his exploits a year ago when the Racers won a game in the Big Dance before pushing Marquette in the Round of 32. Murray also won the only regular-season matchup (79-74) vs. Belmont. Last Year...NCAA-Murray State won vs. Colorado State, 58-41; lost vs. Marquette, 62-53; CIT-Tennessee Tech lost at Georgia State, 74-43; Tennessee State lost at Mercer, 68-60.
PATRIOT...Quarterfinals March 6, semifinals March 9, final March 13, all at home of higher seed. Top contenders-Bucknell, Lehigh, Lafayette. With eight wins in its last nine games prior to the regular-season finale vs. Navy, Bucknell has taken command of the race in the past few weeks and will have homecourt edge in the conference tourney. Interestingly, the road team won both regular-season meetings involving the Bison and top contender Lehigh, which is hopeful that star G C.J. McCollum (23.9 ppg, but out since early January with a foot injury) might return in time for the conference tourney. The Mountain Hawks (last year's surprise package, which upset Duke in the NCAA sub-regionals) could use McCollum, too, as they had lost three of their last four entering Saturday's game vs. Army. Last Year...NCAA-Lehigh won vs. Duke, 75-70; lost vs. Xavier, 70-58; NIT-Bucknell won at Arizona, 65-54; lost at Nevada, 75-67; CIT-American U. lost vs. Buffalo, 78-61.
SOUTHERN...Tourney March 8-11 at ExploreAsheville.com Arena, Asheville, NC. Top contenders-Davidson*, Elon, College of Charleston. Regional observers are suggesting the SoCon isn't quite as deep this season, as only Davidson, Elon, and Charleston have above-.500 SU records entering March. Still, Davidson has all of its starters back from last year's SoCon championship side that pushed Louisville to the limit in the NCAA sub-regional at Portland. The Wildcats boast of one of the nation's unique weapons, 6-10 F Jake Cohen, a Euro-style performer who likes to float to the perimeter and shoot 3s and is hitting 50% of his FG tries. Also, do not fall behind the Wildcats and expect them to give away their game at the FT line; Davidson leads the country at a staggering 81.8% FTs. We'd be surprised if Bob McKillop's side doesn't make a return trip to the NCAAs. Last year...NCAA-Davidson lost vs. Louisville, 69-62; CBI-Wofford lost at Pittsburgh, 81-63.
SOUTHLAND...Tourney March 13-16 at Merrell Center, Katy, TX. Top contenders-Stephen F. Austin, Northwestern State, Oral Roberts. SFA will be the favorite in the conference tourney for good reason, as some believe the Lumberjacks might have an NCAA at-large case if they lose in Katy, thanks in part to an RPI that was ranked in the top 20 before league play commenced and notable road wins at Oklahoma and in the BracketBuster at Long Beach State. Disciplined and well-balanced for mustachioed HC Danny Kaspar, with only one DD scorer, F Taylor Smith (15.7 ppg), shooting an astounding 70% from the floor. The Jacks just don't take many bad shots and are snarling on the stop end, leading the nation in scoring defense (50.1 ppg). But Northwestern State, with four DD scorers and a winner over WAC leader La Tech in pre-Southland play as well as a conqueror of SFA on Jan. 26, and Oral Roberts, which moved to the Southland this season from the Summit and features sr. G Warren Niles (18.9 ppg), don't figure to roll over for the Lumberjacks. Last Year...NCAA-Lamar lost play-in game vs. Vermont, 71-59; NIT-UT-Arlington lost at Washington, 82-72; CIT-McNeese State lost at Toledo, 76-63.
SWAC...Tourney March 8-11 at Garland Special Events Center, Garland, TX. Top contenders-Southern U, Texas Southern, Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Southern U was the only league rep not below .500 in pre-league play (the Jags were 6-6), which included a 53-51 win at Texas A&M. The backcourt combo of instant-offense G Malcolm Miller (16.3 ppg and 47% beyond the arc, where he takes more than half of his shots, all from off the bench as the league's best sixth man, if not top player overall) and Derick Beltran (16.1 ppg) paces Southern. Houston-based Texas Southern, however, had won nine in a row SU prior to Thursday's showdown vs. the Jags, while Bowling Green transfer PF DaVon Hayes (12 ppg) has added some frontline presence to pesky UA-Pine Bluff, as the Golden Lions had won 7 of their last 8 (including a 55-52 home win over Southern) prior to their regular-season finale vs. Jerry Rice's alma mater, the Delta Devils of Mississippi Valley State. Last year...NCAA-Mississippi Valley State lost play-in game vs. Western Kentucky, 59-58.
SUMMIT...Tourney March 9-12 at Sioux Falls Arena, Sioux Falls, SD (not the home court of nearby, Brookings-based South Dakota State, which plays its home games at Frost Arena, or nearby, Vermillion-based South Dakota, which plays its home games at the Dakota Dome). The Summit League was formerly known as Mid-Continent Conference. Top contenders-South Dakota State, North Dakota State, Western Illinois. Although the top contenders all lost their BracketBusters games last weekend, the league still intrigues with its varied styles and well-coached outfits. Both SDSU and NDSU have made Big Dance appearances recently; the SDSU Jackrabbits have much the same look as they did a year ago when advancing to the Dance, led by G Nate Wolters, who scored 53 points in one game this year and spearheaded a rousing upset win at New Mexico in another game in December. As for the NDSU Bison, the good news is that star 6-7 jr. G Taylor Braun (on NBA radar screens) has returned from a six-week absence due to a foot injury, although he was a bit rusty (0 for 4 from the floor in 18 minutes of court time) in his first game back on Wednesday vs. Utah Valley State. Needless to say, NDSU's chances increase in the conference tourney if Braun can get back to near 100%. Keep an eye, too, on rugged and functional Western Illinois, where Lou Saban once coached the football team that spawned some other old AFL names such as Larry Garron and Booker Edgerson. Coached by ex-Bradley mentor Jim Molinari, the Leathernecks play nasty defense (allow mere 52.5 ppg, 2nd in nation behind only SFA), have a post game with 6-8, 250-lb. C Terell Parks (14 ppg & 57% from floor), and a savvy sixth-year sr. PG in Ceola Clark. Last year...NCAA-South Dakota State lost vs. Baylor, 68-60; CBI-North Dakota State lost at Wyoming, 76-75; CIT-Oakland won vs. Bowling Green, 86-69; won vs. Buffalo, 84-76; won vs. Rice, 77-70; lost at Utah State, 105-81.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-02-13 12:21 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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System Plays - Home at Last
February 28, 2013
College Basketball's Last Home Games
With the Ides of March now upon us, and within the blink of an eye, the 2013 NCAA Basketball Tournament will begin its annual pulse-pounding extravaganza. In all likelihood hearts will be broken, a new champion crowned, and memories of upsets and game-winning shots will leave the court in assured dramatic fashion when the 'Big Dance' takes center stage in all of its glory on Thursday, March 21st.
Before we take in all the excitement 'Big Dance' has to offer there remains the final portion of the regular season as teams jockey for position prior to conference seeding tournament action. As you know, the higher the finish in the regular season standings the better the slotting a team gains in conference tourney play. And with it comes my favorite time of the regular season, namely College Basketball’s Last Home Games.
Last Home Game efforts often times finds a team putting its best foot forward. This happens primarily because teams choose to honor outgoing seniors in their final home game. It is 'their day', a game played in recognition of the sweat and toil laid on the line by seniors on the squad in their four years at the university. These games also carry added significance from other emotional angles as well.
Most teams look to leave a favorable impression in their final home game of the season. Adding fuel to the fire, revenge is a great performance enhancer in Last Home Game scenarios. Playing off a loss (or a string of defeats) tends to bring out the best in these finales. So, too, does playing in the role of an underdog, especially when it involves winning teams. In fact, a search of my database shows double digit (+10 or more points) conference underdogs in their final home game of the season are a rather nifty 74-55-3 ATS since 1990 heading into this season. Bring these guys in off either a double-digit spread win or a double-digit spread loss and they zoom to 17-5-1 ATS and 20-6-1 ATS respectively.
Think about that. As bad as they are, even double-digit home underdogs get up for their Last Home Game of the season, beating the spread over 57% of the time on the blind.
From this theory I have developed the most powerful Last Home Game Super System in College Basketball handicapping – bar none.
These plays produced a documented overall winning percentage of 70% ATS overall since 1980! Best of all you can get in on these fully Qualified Last Home Game Super System plays right here on VegasInsider.com from now until the end of the season. Be sure to check in daily for word on any and all qualifying plays as they happen.
As the final stretch run of the 2012-13 college basketball regular season is suddenly upon us, let me leave you with this list of 100% PERFECT ATS performers in Last Home Games. A minimum of five years of results was necessary to qualify...
COLORADO 6-0
PITTSBURGH 6-0
RICHMOND 5-0-1
ST. BONAVENTURE 5-0
SYRACUSE 6-0
TOWSON ST 5-0
WISCONSIN 5-0
ARKANSAS 0-4-1
BALL ST 0-7
RICE 0-7
RUTGERS 0-5
FYI: Ohio University leads all teams long-term in Last Home Games, going 14-1 ATS. On the flip side, the biggest long-term loser is currently Duquesne at 1-11-1 ATS.
There you have it, my take on teams to watch in their Last Home Games of the season this year.
By 'Playing On' and 'Playing Against' each of the perfect performers on this list I'm certain you'll put yourself into position for the best time of the year, the upcoming NCAA Tournament. And by utilizing my famous Last Home Game Super System plays I guarantee you will!
Enjoy the games...
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-02-13 12:22 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Armadillo: Friday's six-pack
-- Joakim Noah had 23 points, 21 rebounds, 11 blocks at the Bulls beat up on Philly; triple-doubles like that include blocks are very rare.
-- Virginia 73, Duke 68-- Blue Devils are 0-4 in true road games against top 100 teams this season.
-- Gonzaga 70, BYU 65-- Zags are looking like a #1 seed in NCAAs.
-- Tenn-Martin 69, Murray 68-- Skyhawks were a 20-point underdog!!!
-- Louisiana Tech 84, Utah State 61-- Bulldogs are 15-0 in the WAC, might still have to win conference tourney to make NCAAs.
-- Oregon 85, Oregon State 75-- Ducks were down seven at half.
*****
Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for in March........
March is one of the best months of the year; tons of college basketball, spring training, the weather around here usually gets better, lot of good stuff going on. We’re approaching this March with as sense of optimism….here are some things I’m looking for this month.
13) Just the sound of ball meeting bat means winter is almost over; so what if #98 is pitching to #87, in a matchup of two prospects destined to spend the summer in the California Penal League? Its baseball, and its always good when spring training starts up.
12) College basketball is our favorite sport, which makes March one of our favorite months; Championship Week is almost as much fun as the NCAA tournament itself, since for some teams, just getting in is the main thing. Love to see teams celebrate when they win their conference tournaments.
11) Teams that will be very, very nervous until they win their conference tournament: Northeastern-Louisiana Tech-Belmont-Long Beach.
These teams won their regular season in their leagues, but won’t be going to the NCAAs unless they win the league tournament, too. Tech is unbeaten in the WAC; would be a shame if they got upset out west.
10) VCU’s old league, the CAA, will only have seven teams in its conference tournament, as four of its 11 schools are ineligible for the tourney this year. Northeastern gets the #1 seed and a bye, so they’ll have to win two pressure-packed games to make the NCAAs.
9) With the NCAA field expanded to 68 teams, no one who is excluded has that much of a gripe, but whomever #69/#70 are will whimper for a while, then limp off to the NIT. Question is, can any of the First Four teams make a run through the brackets, the way VCU did two years ago? VCU’s run was a God-send for the NCAA, silencing any complaints about those first four games in Dayton. Can it happen again?
8) No #1 seed has ever lost to a #16 seed; is this the year? Who will those four #1 seeds be? This season, #1 teams have been getting bounced left and right, so it figures that this could be a year where a #16 seed pulls a shocker, but the talent different between those teams is so big, a lot of things will have to fall into place for the big upset to happen.
7) This time of year, I don’t want to see the name of any the guys on my fantasy baseball team in the news; its almost always bad news. No injuries this year, please? I'm looking at you, Carl Crawford.
6) They’re selling hats from World Baseball Classic teams for $35 a pop; not good. Do people watch the WBC? I’m not sure if I’ll watch it or not, I guess I will if its on when basketball isn’t. Just hope Jose Reyes doesn’t pop a hammy running out a grounder.
5) Speaking of which, Dodgers can’t be real happy that Hanley Ramirez is playing 3B at the WBC so Reyes can play short; LA needs Ramirez to gets used to playing a solid shortstop. Tom Gordon killed them with sloppy defense at short LY.
4) Pac-12 tourney is in Las Vegas for first time, at MGM Arena; with Bill Walton calling games on ESPN, this could replace Big East as the premiere conference tournament on TV.
Walton is capable of saying anything at any time; he really is fun to listen to, especially if it’s a good game- conference tournaments produce good games.
3) First major league baseball game that counts is March 31, Astros-Rangers, Houston’s first game as an AL team.
Opening Day is the next day. Interleague play will be every day now, with 15 teams in each league for the first time.
2) For every winner there is a loser, and in big-time college sports, losers get fired. The coaching carousel will start spinning faster in March; right now USC is the #1 job that could be open, but Old Dominion has a strong history too and that job is already open. By the time the Final Four rolls around, a lot more jobs will be open.
1) Common wisdom I’ve heard on TV is that around 20 teams have a legit chance to make the Final Four; that’s a lot. People’s brackets are going to have some diversity to them this year. Enjoy your March and good luck with your brackets!!!
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-02-13 12:25 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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NCAAB
Long Sheet
Friday, March 1
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DARTMOUTH (6 - 18) at PENNSYLVANIA (7 - 19) - 3/1/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENNSYLVANIA is 72-102 ATS (-40.2 Units) in all home games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 72-102 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 30-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
PENNSYLVANIA is 3-2 against the spread versus DARTMOUTH over the last 3 seasons
PENNSYLVANIA is 5-0 straight up against DARTMOUTH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BROWN (10 - 14) at CORNELL (13 - 14) - 3/1/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CORNELL is 61-31 ATS (+26.9 Units) after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
CORNELL is 4-1 against the spread versus BROWN over the last 3 seasons
CORNELL is 5-0 straight up against BROWN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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YALE (11 - 16) at COLUMBIA (11 - 13) - 3/1/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
YALE is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.
YALE is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
YALE is 5-0 against the spread versus COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
YALE is 5-0 straight up against COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HARVARD (17 - 7) at PRINCETON (14 - 9) - 3/1/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in March games since 1997.
HARVARD is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
PRINCETON is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PRINCETON is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PRINCETON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.
PRINCETON is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
PRINCETON is 91-63 ATS (+21.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
PRINCETON is 4-2 against the spread versus HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
PRINCETON is 3-3 straight up against HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MARIST (8 - 20) at SIENA (7 - 21) - 3/1/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARIST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MARIST is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
SIENA is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MARIST is 3-2 against the spread versus SIENA over the last 3 seasons
SIENA is 4-1 straight up against MARIST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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FAIRFIELD (17 - 12) at MANHATTAN (11 - 16) - 3/1/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MANHATTAN is 34-23 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 34-23 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FAIRFIELD is 77-54 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
MANHATTAN is 4-2 against the spread versus FAIRFIELD over the last 3 seasons
FAIRFIELD is 4-2 straight up against MANHATTAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LOYOLA-MD (20 - 9) at IONA (15 - 13) - 3/1/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOYOLA-MD is 24-5 ATS (+18.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 104-55 ATS (+43.5 Units) in road games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 104-55 ATS (+43.5 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 88-43 ATS (+40.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
IONA is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
IONA is 3-2 against the spread versus LOYOLA-MD over the last 3 seasons
IONA is 3-2 straight up against LOYOLA-MD over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-02-13 12:27 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Friday, March 1
-- Dartmouth lost its last five games, all by 9+ points; they lost 67-57 at home to Penn Feb 16, after leading by 12 at half. Big Green shot 35.6% for game; Quakers shot 64% inside arc. Ivy league home favorites of 7+ points are 7-8 vs spread. Penn split its four Ivy home games, winning by 4-23 points; they're 3-2 in last five games overall. Dartmouth is 1-4 on Ivy road, losing by 5-23-9-11 points.
-- Brown lost five of last seven games, losing last three road games, by 7-17-23 points; they turned ball over 16 times (-7) in 69-66 home loss to Cornell Jan 16, when both sides were 8-20 from arc. Bruins are 1-4 on Ivy road, losing by 12-7-17-23 points, with two of those losses in OT. Ivy League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-5 vs spread. Cornell is 1-4 at home in Ivy, with only win by 23 over Dartmouth.
-- Yale won four of last six games, winning at Princeton/Penn in last two on road; Bulldogs shot 70% (28-40) inside arc in 75-56 home win over Columbia Jan 16, game Yale led 43-21 at half. Ivy League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-5 vs spread. Lions lost seven of last nine games, but they upset first-place Harvard here; five of Columbia's seven losses in conference play are by six or less points.
-- Harvard won eight of last nine games; they lead Princeton by game in Ivy standings; since there is no tournament in Ivy, Harvard win here will pretty much put them in NCAAs. Crimson beat Princeton 69-57 Jan 16 at home, game they led by 4 at half. Ivy League home favorites of 7 or less points are 5-7 vs spread. Harvard's only Ivy loss was at Columbia by 15. Princeton is 4-1 at home in Ivy, with only loss to Yale.
-- Siena won 79-75 at Marist Jan 27, after trailing by 13 in first 9:00 of game; Saints lost five of last six games, with five losses by 10+ points. Six of seven Siena wins this season were by 4 or less points, or in OT. Seven of last eight Marist games were decided by 6 or less points; they are 1-7 on MAAC road, with only win in double OT at Iona. MAAC home underdogs of 3 or less points are 5-3 against the spread.
-- Fairfield won seven of its last nine games, winning last two on road, by 7-10 points, but one of losses was awful 62-40 loss to Manhattan at home, when Stags shot 25.4% from floor, 7-18 from foul line. MAAC home teams are 9-6 if spread is 3 or less points. Jaspers won five of last six games after starting season 6-15; they've won three of last four home games, with only loss in that span to Niagara by four.
-- Loyola won five of last six games, with three of five wins by 4 or less points; Greyhounds were outscored 20-8 on line in 79-71 home loss to Iona Jan 27, when Gaels shot 58% inside arc. Snakebit Iona lost six of its last seven games, with three losses in OT, and other three all by 3 or less points, including one loss where team hit 65-footer at buzzer to force an OT. MAAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-15 vs spread.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-02-13 12:29 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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NCAAB
Friday, March 1
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Are dog-dominated conferences primed for postseason upsets?
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Heading into Thursday’s college basketball schedule, underdogs have gone 1573-1533-55 against the spread (50.64 percent) this season, which sits par for the course as far as oddsmakers are concerned.
Some conferences have followed suit, like the Mountain West, which enters Thursday’s slate with a 28-28-2 ATS record for underdogs in conference play. But other leagues, like the Pac-12, have – for lack of a better term – gone to the dogs.
As of Thursday, Pac-12 underdogs have produced a 54-31-2 ATS record – covering the spread at a profitable 63 percent.
While pups have posted just a 32-55 SU mark in those games, the ATS numbers show just how volatile the Pac-12 can be. Southern California’s 89-78 win over No. 11 Arizona as a 7.5-point home underdog Wednesday is a prime example.
Knowing which conferences have been bountiful to underdog bettors is not only useful in the final weeks of the schedule but shines light on which leagues have the most upset potential come conference tournament time.
Here are the best conferences for underdog bettors and how their tournaments are shaping up:
Pac-12 – 63 percent (Underdogs are 54-31-2 ATS, 32-55 SU)
Four teams are fighting it out for the top seed in the Pac-12 tournament – Oregon, UCLA, Arizona, Cal – but as Wednesday’s schedule proved (all three underdogs covered, two won SU), no team is safe no matter where they sit in the standings. Betting the Pac-12 postseason could be as easy as blindly siding with the underdogs each game.
Southern Conference – 59 percent (Underdogs are 57-39-2 ATS, 31-67 SU)
Davidson is the class of the Southern once again at 16-1 SU in conference play. However, the Wildcats are just 8-9 ATS and have been favorites in each of those conference clashes. Finding value in the Southern tournament will come from those teams below Davidson, like Samford, which is 9-7 SU but 13-3 ATS in conference play - nine of those paydays coming as an underdog.
Missouri Valley Conference – 58 percent (Underdogs are 47-33-3 ATS, 30-53 SU)
The MVC is one of the best little conferences in the land and the postseason race is hot and heavy with Wichita State and Creighton tied atop the standings heading into a showdown this Saturday. Both of those programs are in the conversation for an at-large NCAA bid but have also fallen at the hands of lesser MVC foes. Evansville could be the wildcard in the bunch, with two wins over WSU and six of their nine ATS conference wins coming as an underdog.
Colonial Athletic Association – 57 percent (Underdogs are 52-39-0 ATs, 37-54 SU)
Northeastern has already clinched the CAA regular season title, with one game remaining on the schedule, and there is a nice battle for second in the conference between Delaware and Towson. George Mason, Georgia State and James Madison all finished with double-digit conference wins. The Panthers took one win over Northeastern this season and nearly knocked off the Huskies in overtime Wednesday. The CAA tournament could very well pop a NCAA bubble for one of the major-conference program if there's an upset winner.
Summit League – 55 percent (Underdogs are 36-29-0 ATS, 21-44 SU)
Heading into the final string of schedule, just two games separate No. 1 South Dakota State and No. 4 Oakland in the Summit standings. The Jackrabbits have the makings of a Cinderella team come March Madness but the league tournament could snuff out that shocker before Selection Sunday, especially if star Nate Wolters is slowed by a back injury. The fourth-place Golden Grizzlies have wins over South Dakota State and Western Illinois this year and could be a dog to watch in the postseason.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-02-13 12:31 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Saturday's Slate
March 1, 2013
**Miami at Duke**
--The Cameron Crazies will undoubtedly be in rare form Saturday night when Duke (24-4 straight up, 15-13 against the spread) seeks to avenge an embarrassing loss at Miami from earlier this season. The Blue Devils will also be in bounce-back mode after going down Thursday night in Charlottesville.
--Virginia stayed perfect at home by beating Duke 73-68 as a one-point home favorite. In defeat, Seth Curry and Quinn Cook both drained four 3-pointers apiece and finished with 28 and 22 points, respectively.
--When these schools met in Coral Gables on Jan. 23, Miami ran Duke out of the gym early and often en route to a 90-63 win as a 2.5-point home underdog. The 153 combined points soared ‘over’ the 133.5-point total. Duran Scott was sensational with 25 points, six rebounds, four assists and two steals, while Kenny Kadji finished with 22 points on 9-of-11 shooting from the floor. Mason Plumlee had 15 points and 11 boards in the losing effort.
--Miami (23-4 SU, 16-7-1 ATS) has already locked up a share of its first ACC regular-season title and can clinch the outright championship with a win in this spot. The Hurricanes, who are 14-1 against ACC foes, are coming off Wednesday’s 76-58 win over Va. Tech as 16-point home ‘chalk.’ Shane Larkin enjoyed another stellar performance, scoring 22 points while dishing out six assists compared to only one turnover. Larking made 8-of-12 shots from the field, including 3-of-5 from deep. Kadji finished with 20 points, six rebounds and two blocked shots.
--Larkin is on his way to earning first-team All-ACC honors. The sophomore guard, who is the son of MLB great Barry Larkin, is averaging 13.4 points per game and has a 117/59 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Scott and Kadji are averaging 13.1 and 13.0 PPG, respectively, for UM’s balanced offensive attack.
--Duke is undefeated in 14 home games with a 7-7 spread record. The Blue Devils have been single-digit home favorite just once, failing to cover the number in a 73-68 win over Ohio St. as 5.5-point favorites back on Nov. 28.
--Duke is No. 1 in the RPI Rankings thanks to a 4-1 record against the RPI Top 25, an 8-2 ledger against the RPI Top 50 and a 12-4 mark against the RPI Top 100. The Blue Devils’ profile includes wins over the likes of Minnesota, Louisville, VCU, Kentucky and Temple.
--Miami is third in the RPI Rankings, going 4-1 against the RPI Top 25, 6-1 versus RPI Top 50 opponents and 13-2 against RPI Top 100 foes.
--Miami has been a road underdog twice, winning outright at North Carolina (68-59) and at UMass (75-62). In four underdog situations, the ‘Canes are 3-1 both SU and ATS with their loss coming to Arizona on a neutral court.
--Most books opened Duke as a 6.5-point home favorite.
--The ‘over’ has cashed at an incredibly lucrative 11-1 clip in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries. In the last nine Miami-Duke encounters, the ‘Canes own a 6-1-2 spread record.
--The ‘under’ is 14-7-1 overall for UM, 7-4 in its 11 road assignments.
--The ‘over’ is 15-12 overall for Duke, but the ‘under’ is 7-6 in its home games with a total. Regardless of venue, the ‘over’ is on a 9-4 run in the Blue Devils’ last 13 games.
--ESPN will have the telecast at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Arizona at UCLA**
--SportsBetting.com opened this game as a pick ‘em.
--Arizona (23-5 SU, 12-14 ATS) saw its three-game winning streak halted in Wednesday’s 89-78 loss at Southern Cal as a 7.5-point road favorite. The Wildcats got beaten 33-24 on the boards and shot just 40.0 percent from the field. They got a team-high 21 points, six assists and five steals from Solomon Hill.
--UCLA (21-7 SU, 11-16 ATS) has won 14 of its 17 home games while posting a 7-9 spread record.
--Ben Howland’s club has won three in a row and five of its last six, including Wednesday’s 79-74 win over Arizona St. in overtime. However, the Bruins failed to cover the spread as 7.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Kyle Anderson was the catalyst in the victory, tallying 21 points, 15 rebounds and four blocked shots. Jordan Adams had a team-high 22 points and Shabazz Muhammad finished with 21 points.
--Muhammad, the Las Vegas product who most recruitniks dubbed as the nation’s No. 1 prep player, has averaged a team-high 18.3 PPG for the Bruins. Larry Drew II, the point guard who transferred to Westwood from North Carolina, is fourth in the nation in assists with 7.8 APG. Drew has a 218/63 assists-to-turnovers ratio.
--Mark Lyons, the transfer guard from Xavier, leads the Wildcats in scoring with a 15.2 PPG average.
--When these Pac-12 rivals squared off in Tucson on Jan. 24, UCLA went into the McKale Center and won an 84-73 decision as an 8.5-point underdog. Muhammad scored a game-high 23 points, while David Wear had 15 points and eight rebounds. Drew dished out nine assists. For Arizona, Nick Johnson scored 23 points before fouling out. Lyons had 16 points but made only 6-of-17 from the field and had zero assists and five turnovers.
--UCLA is No. 39 in the RPI Rankings, compiling a 4-4 record against the RPI Top 50 and a 10-6 mark against the RPI Top 100.
--Sean Miller’s squad is 14th in the RPI Rankings, going 5-4 against RPI Top 50 opponents and 11-5 versus Top 100 foes.
--The ‘under’ is 14-8 for Arizona, 6-4 in its 10 true road assignments.
--The ‘under’ is 11-10 overall for UCLA, 5-5 in its home outings.
--The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between UCLA and Arizona.
--Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Georgia is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games going into Saturday’s home game vs. Tennessee at Stegeman Coliseum. The Volunteers have won six in a row both SU and ATS. Most books opened Tennessee as a 1.5-point road favorite.
--With the Gators back at full strength for just the eighth game this season, most spots opened them as 17-point favorites Saturday vs. Alabama. ESPN will have television coverage at noon Eastern.
--Florida 2013 signee Chris Walker led Holmes County High School (in FL.) to a win over West Gadsden County in Wednesday’s state title game. Walker, a six-foot-10-inch center, averaged 25 points, 14 rebounds and 10 blocked shots in the state semifinals in Lakeland. The future Gator beat up on a former Gator’s team, as West Gadsden is coached by Andrew Moten, who led UF to its first NCAA Tournament bid (and the Sweet 16 before losing to eventual runner-up Syracuse in the Meadowlands) in 1987.
--St. John’s has suspended D’Angelo Harrison for the rest of the season. Harrison was third in the Big East in scoring, averaging 17.8 points and 4.3 rebounds per game.
--Auburn head coach Tony Barbee is a goner.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-02-13 06:14 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Saturday, March 2
-- Syracuse (+7) won 70-68 at Louisville Jan 19, its third straight series win, despite turning ball over 16 times (-7); Cardinals won two of last three visits here, losing 52-51 LY- they've won seven of last eight games overall, winning last four, all by 14+ points. Syracuse is 4-5 in last nine games after an 18-1 start, losing last two games by 11-3 points. Big East home teams are 12-19 in games with spread of 4 or less points.
-- VCU won six of last seven games, but covered only three of last 12; they're 5-1 SU at home, 3-3 as home favorites, with four wins by 12 or more points. Butler split its last four games; they're 4-2 on A-16 road, with all four wins by six or less points. Bulldogs are 2-1 as an A-16 dog; four of their last five games were decided by 5 or less points. A-16 home favorites of 7 or less points are 27-14 against the spread.
-- Notre Dame lost four of last five visits to Marquette, losing by 13-2-26-22 points; home side is 8-3 in last 11 series games. Irish won seven of last nine games, allowing 42-41 points in last two; they're 4-3 on road in Big East, losing by 4-16-17. Marquette is 8-0 at home in Big East, 3-3 as home favorite, with four of last five home wins by 10+ points. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 8-23 against the spread.
-- Delaware's last six games (5-1) were all decided by 1 or 2 points; Hens (+6.5) won 79-72 at George Mason Feb 9, outscoring Patriots 25-9 on foul line, in second straight win over Mason, after losing 13 of previous 14 meetings. Delaware won three in row, nine of last 11 games; they are 2-5-1 as CAA home favorite. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 10-20 vs spread. Mason won/covered its last four road games.
-- Valparaiso won 13 of last 15 games; they're 6-1 on Horizon road, with only loss by 12 at Youngstown; Crusaders (-8.5) beat Green Bay 73-61 at home Jan 23, forcing 16 (+8) turnovers, outscoring Green Bay 27-17 on foul line. Underdogs are 11-7 in Horizon games where spread is 3 or less points. Green Bay won four of last five games; they're 6-1 at home in Horizon, with only loss to Wright State, in double OT.
-- Kentucky won eight of last nine games vs Arkansas, losing 77-76 last visit here in OT; Wildcats won three in row, 8 of last 10 games, but they are 0-2 on road since Noel got hurt, losing by 17-30 points. Arkansas is 7-0 at home in SEC, with wins vs Florida/Mizzou; three of its last four games were decided by 5 or less points. SEC home favorites of 4 or less points are 9-10 vs spread. Kentucky is 2-3 as an underdog this season.
-- Miami (+3) shot 62% inside arc, held Duke to 4-23 outside arc- they crushed Blue Devils 90-63 Jan 23, 'canes' 2nd straight series win, after losing 11 of previous 12 series games. Miami won in OT at Cameron in LY's meeting. Quick turnaround for Duke club that lost Thursday nite at Virginia; they're 7-0 at home in ACC, with six of seven wins by 13+. ACC home favorites of 6+ points are 25-11 against the spread.
-- Denver won 14 of last 15 games, with lone loss 53-42 (+2) Jan 23 at New Mexico State; Pioneers made just 3-18 from arc, were outscored on foul line, 12-3. Aggies won 13 of last 14 games, losing last away game, at Utah State; they're 3-6 vs spread as an underdog this year. Denver is 5-1 as a WAC home favorite, winning home games by 11+ points. WAC home favorites are 16-31 against the spread, 9-16 if laying 8+ points.
-- Kansas State (-4.5) beat Baylor 81-61 two weeks ago, holding Jackson to 7 points while forcing 19 turnovers (+13), making 11-25 from arc in its fifth series win in last seven tries. Wildcats won eight of last nine, are 5-2 on Big X road, losing at Iowa State/Kansas. Favorites are 11-7 in Big X games with spread of 4 or less points. Baylor lost six of last nine, but is 5-2 at home in Big X, losing only to Oklahoma/Iowa State.
-- Boise PG Marks played only 9 minutes, Eliorraga didn't play at all in 77-57 (+9.5) loss at Colorado State Jan 30; Rams shot 55.6% inside arc, but missed 16-35 foul shots, or it would've been worse. Boise won four of last five games, covered six of last seven; they've won last five home games, but are just 1-4 vs top four in MWC. Rams won eight of last nine games. Dogs are 8-3 in MWC games with spread of 3 or less points.
-- Wichita State (-2.5) beat Creighton 67-64 Jan 19, its fourth series win in last five tries, holding Bluejays other than McDermott to 36.1% from floor. Shockers won last two visits here, by 14-21 points. Wichita is 4-4 in last eight games, Creighton 3-3 in last six, so at-large bid not lock for either side. Wichita's last four road games were all decided by 5 or less points. MVC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-5 vs spread.
-- UCLA (+8.5) raced to 21-5 lead, won 84-73 at Arizona Jan 24, ending 6-game skid in Tucson; Wildcats lost six of last seven visits here, losing by 22-7 points last two years- they're 3-3 in last six games overall, 5-3 on Pac-12 road, allowing 76.7 ppg in losses, 66 or less in wins. Bruins won five of last six games, are 3-4 as home favorites (5-2 SU), with four wins at home by 8+. Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-20.
-- Canisius (+1) shot 58% inside arc, won 67-50 at Rider Jan 25, second Griffin win in last seven series games; Broncs won seven of last nine in this gym, won last four games overall- they're 4-1 as MAAC road dog this year. MAAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 9-15 vs spread. Canisius won six of last seven home games; they're 3-5 against spread as home favorites. 11 of last 15 Canisius games stayed under the total.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-02-13 04:43 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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NCAAB
Saturday, March 2
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Study group: Saturday’s Top 25 NCB betting notes
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(21) Butler at (25) VCU (-7.5)
Butler and Virginia Commonwealth look to keep their Atlantic 10 title chances alive when they meet Saturday. The Bulldogs have been held under 70 points in five straight games but are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.
(9) Louisville at (12) Syracuse (-1.5)
The Cardinals will try to remain within striking distance of first place when they play their final road game of the season against the Orange. Locked in a second-place tie with Marquette, Louisville suffered its last loss two weeks ago in the five-overtime thriller at Notre Dame, but has won four straight by double digits since. Syracuse fell from first place in the Big East into a tie for fourth with a loss last Saturday to Georgetown – snapping the nation’s longest home winning streak at 38. Syracuse has won three straight in the series, including a 70-68 victory at Louisville on Jan. 19
Alabama at (6) Florida (-17)
First place in the Southeastern Conference is on the line when Florida hosts Alabama Saturday. Alabama trails the Gators by a game and it can win the regular-season championship by winning its last three regular-season games. Florida expects to at full strength for the stretch run. Key reserves Will Yeguete (knee), Michael Frazier (concussion) and Casey Prather (head gash) are all expected to play Saturday. The Crimson Tide are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
(17) Memphis at Central Florida (+6)
Perhaps content with its 18-game winning streak and comfortable lead in Conference USA, No. 17 Memphis suffered its first setback in over three months earlier this week. Memphis entered Tuesday’s non-conference tilt against Xavier tied with Akron for the country’s longest active winning streak, but a listless first half caught up to the Tigers in a 64-62 loss. The Tigers will try to avoid two straight road losses against a Golden Knights team they defeated 93-71 on Feb. 13. Memphis is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
West Virginia at (5) Kansas (-16)
Kansas is locked in a first-place tie with Kansas State in the Big 12 race and on the short list of schools in contention for a No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament. The Jayhawks have posted five straight victories and coach Bill Self became the ninth-fastest coach to reach 500 career wins with an overtime victory at Iowa State on Monday. West Virginia has lost three straight games and is 1-4 ATS in its last five overall.
(20) Notre Dame at (22) Marquette (-6)
The race for one of the four double-byes in the Big East Tournament is wide open, making the Golden Eagles’ home tilt against the Fighting Irish a critical matchup. Marquette extended the country’s second-longest home winning streak to 24 games in Monday’s 74-71 victory over Syracuse. Notre Dame has won four of five after clubbing Cincinnati 62-41 on Sunday and is 4-1 against ranked opponents this season.
Texas at (18) Oklahoma State (-12.5)
Oklahoma State looks to complete a regular-season sweep of Texas when the Cowboys host the Longhorns. Oklahoma State won the first meeting 72-59 on Feb. 9 behind 23 points from freshman point guard Marcus Smart. The Cowboys have won nine of their last 10 games and are 13-2 at home. Texas is 3-2 since star point guard Myck Kabongo returned to the squad but is just 1-7 on the road. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six Saturday games.
(19) Saint Louis at George Washington (+5)
The Billikens have won 10 straight, the longest active streak in the A-10 and the first double-digit win streak for the program since the 1993-94 team won its first 14 games. George Washington, meanwhile, has dropped two straight and four of five. During Saint Louis' 10-game win streak, the Billikens have led by at least 17 points in eight of those 10 contests. The Billikens are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
Wyoming at (14) New Mexico (-11.5)
New Mexico hopes to add a regular-season Mountain West title to its impressive resume when the Lobos host Wyoming. The Lobos can guarantee at least a share of the title with a win at The Pit, where they are 13-1 this season. The Cowboys, who have lost three straight, haven’t won at New Mexico since 2003. Wyoming is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.
Portland at (2) Gonzaga (-26)
Gonzaga, which is 14-1 at home, has an 11-game win streak and is coming off a 70-65 victory at BYU on Thursday that gave the Bulldogs their 10th outright West Coast Conference regular-season title. The Bulldogs have taken the last 19 meetings and lead the conference in scoring with 77 points per game and are tops in scoring defense (58.2). Portland lost 71-49 at home to Gonzaga on Jan. 17.
(24) Akron at Buffalo (+6.5)
Akron has the nation's longest win streak but Buffalo has beaten the Zips three straight times at home. The Zips, playing as a ranked team for the first time in program history, survived an overtime game at Ohio to extend their streak to 19 games and build a two-game in the Mid-American East Division standings. The Bulls, who have lost back-to-back games by a combined three points, have never beaten a ranked opponent. The Zips are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.
(7) Miami-Florida at (3) Duke (-6.5)
Miami can clinch its first outright conference title in program history on Saturday with a win at Duke, which is looking to avenge a 27-point loss to the Hurricanes on Jan. 23. The Hurricanes have won nine of their last 10 games since handing Duke its worst regular-season defeat in nearly 30 years. Duke senior forward Ryan Kelly remains out with a foot injury, and he’s not expected to return until next week. The Hurricanes are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings at Duke.
(13) Kansas State at Baylor (-2)
Kansas State will try to inch closer to its first conference title since 1977 when it travels to Baylor for a Big 12 game. The Wildcats have won four straight since their latest loss to the Jayhawks on Feb. 11. While Baylor ended a three-game losing streak with a 65-62 victory Wednesday against West Virginia. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four Saturday games.
Iowa at (1) Indiana (-14.5)
Indiana wasn’t overly concerned after being upset by Minnesota on Tuesday, but the loss likely guaranteed the top-ranked Hoosiers won’t overlook visiting Iowa. The Hoosiers have won two of their last three games against Iowa, including a 69-65 victory in Iowa City on Dec. 31 in the Big Ten opener for both teams. Indiana has held its last five opponents to less than 43 percent shooting from the floor and is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
Rutgers at (8) Georgetown (-14.5)
Rutgers will try to win a road game against a top 10 opponent for the first time in school history when it travels to Georgetown. The Scarlet Knights have lost nine of 10, including back-to-back games since leading scorer Eli Carter was lost for the season. The Hoyas rallied to beat Connecticut in double overtime last time out to extend their win streak to 10 games. Georgetown is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
(11) Arizona at UCLA (PICK)
UCLA and Arizona will try to remain in the hunt for a piece of the Pac-12 crown when they meet Saturday in Los Angeles. The Wildcats suffered a painful loss Wednesday at USC and sit tied for third with California, one-half game behind UCLA and a game behind Oregon. Across town Wednesday, the Bruins took care of business in overtime against visiting Arizona State for their third straight victory. UCLA last won a regular-season conference championship in 2007-08. UCLA’s leading scorer Shabazz Muhammad, who averages a team-high 18.3 points and leads the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting percentage at 44.9, has been dealing with pink eye recently, but is expected to play against Arizona. The Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
Santa Clara at (23) St. Mary’s (-11.5)
Santa Clara will travel to Saint Mary’s in the regular-season finale for both teams. The Gaels locked up second place in the West Coast Conference when No. 2 Gonzaga held on to beat BYU on Thursday. Santa Clara can still finish third with a victory against Saint Mary’s and a loss by BYU on Saturday at Loyola Marymount, though either result would be a major upset. Saint Mary’s leading scorer Matthew Dellavedova might have something to prove after matching his season-low with four points and committing six turnovers when these teams met Feb. 7(84-63 St. Mary’s win) at Santa Clara. The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-02-13 04:45 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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NCAAB
Saturday, March 2
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In low-scoring season, high-scoring conferences the best under bets
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College basketball scores are down all over the country, with NCAA Div. 1 programs averaging just under 67.5 points per game.
According to a recent story in USA Today, this NCAAB season is on pace to become the lowest-scoring since 1952. The biggest culprits are conferences like the Mid-Eastern Athletic (62.04) and Southwestern Athletic (62.84) while leagues like the ACC (69.9) and West Coast Conference (70.1) are at the high end of the scale.
Oddsmakers have done a good job balancing the daily totals, with all lined games going 1,164-1,184 over/under as of Friday. However, there are a few conferences which have been very kind to fans of the under during this low-scoring season.
Scoring average is for all games involving teams from that conference as of Feb. 27. Over/under total from all lined games involving a team from that conference.
Pac-12
Scoring average: 69.49 points per game
Over/under: 87-138-2 over/under (61 percent)
The Pac-12 is among the highest-scoring conferences in the land but has constantly stayed under the number. The Pac-12 has a smaller sample size than some of the other major conferences due to the fact that many of its non-conference games were without totals. But the proof has been in the pudding during conference play, with the league boasting a collecting 33-55-1 over/under mark against each other heading into the weekend.
West Coast Conference
Scoring average: 70.09 points per game
Over/under: 66-93-1 (58 percent)
The WCC is the highest-scoring conference in college basketball, but much like the Pac-12, finds most of its games finishing below the total. The under is 39-26 in conference play (60 percent) with teams like Gonzaga and St. Mary’s staying below the number most nights. In fact, following Thursday’s non-conference win over BYU, which played under the 145-point total, the Bulldogs are 1-9 over/under in their last 10 games.
SEC
Scoring average: 69.08 points per game
Over/under: 125-148-3 (54 percent)
The SEC has some high-scoring members, like Ole Miss (79.3), but also some programs, like Mississippi State (59.2), which have struggled to put the ball in the basket. The Southeastern Conference boasts a 44-54-1 over/under count in league play heading into the weekend. Programs like Alabama (5-17 over/under) and South Carolina (6-12 over/under) have kept under bettors happy in the SEC.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Scoring average: 66.61 points per game
Over/under: 77-92-1 (54 percent)
The MAAC has been a quiet gold mine for under bettors. The league’s overall betting stats are smaller than the major conferences because many of its games don't have lines available. The MAAC has gone 32-42 over/under in conference clashes with teams like Rider (4-14 over/under) and Canisius (5-12 over/under) among the best under plays in college basketball.
Note: The lowest-scoring conferences – Mid-Eastern Athletic (62.04), Southwestern Athletic (62.84), America East (63.28) – have a combined over/under record of 15-17-2 in lined games this season.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-02-13 04:47 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Sunday Hoops Action
March 3, 2013
The Big Ten kicks-off the final week of college basketball's regular season with two big matchups on Sunday's slate. At the top of the list is No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Michigan, but to get you warmed up for that long standing rivalry, Purdue will head to Madison to face No. 17 Wisconsin. The Big East also gets in the act this Sunday with Villanova on the road against No. 23 Pittsburgh in a high noon start. The following is a handicapping guide for all three conference showdowns starting with an in-depth look at our game of the day.
Vegas Insider's Game of the Day
No. 9 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (4 p.m. CBS)
The Spartans come into this matchup with back-to-back losses both straight-up and against the spread to Indiana and Ohio State that put a major crimp in their chances to win the Big Ten regular season title. They are 22-6 SU overall and 11-4 in conference play. Michigan State is 5-4 ATS in its last nine games but under .500 on the year at 10-13-2 ATS. The total has gone OVER in three of its last five games.
Behind a 17-point night by Gary Harris, the Spartans rolled over Michigan 75-52 as 1 ˝-point home underdogs the first time they met this season with the total staying UNDER the 127-point line. Both Harris and Keith Appling are averaging over 13 points a game and Michigan State as a whole is scoring 70 points a game while shooting 46.8 percent from the field and 34.7 percent from three-point range.
The Wolverines need to quickly regroup for this contest after a stunning collapse against Penn State is this past Wednesday in an 84-78 loss as 13-point road favorites. It was the Nittany Lions first conference victory this season and Michigan's fifth loss against 10 wins in the Big Ten. The Wolverines are now 23-5 SU and 13-12-1 ATS after failing to cover in six of their last seven games. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven games.
Trey Burke could be a big factor in this game after scoring a game-high 18 points the first time these two teams met, but also look for Tim Hardaway Jr. and Glenn Robinson III to play a significant role for the Wolverines as well. Michigan has the edge in scoring with 76 points-per-game and is shooting 49.5 percent from the floor. Defensively, it is allowing an average of 62.1 points a game verse Michigan State's 59.9-point average.
The home team in this series has covered the spread in the last four meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last eight games between the two. Michigan State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Michigan.
Best of the Rest
Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 23 Pittsburgh Panthers (12 p.m. ESPN3)
ESPN bracketology expert Joe Lunardi had Villanova listed as one of the last four-in when it comes to this year's NCAA Tournament but it probably needs a victory on Sunday to stay on this list after losing to Seton Hall 66-65 this past Monday as a four-point road favorite. Overall, the Wildcats are 18-11 SU and 16-9-1 ATS. They have failed to cover in three of their last four games and the total has stayed UNDER in six of their last nine outings.
Pittsburgh is 10-6 SU in the Big East this season including a 58-43 rout over Villanova as a 4 ˝-point road favorite on Jan.16. It is just 2-2 SU and ATS in its last four games after losing to Marquette and Notre Dame before knocking-off St. Johns and South Florida its last two time out. The Panthers are 11-11 ATS overall this season but just 4-7 ATS at home. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 17 Wisconsin Badgers (1 p.m. ESPN)
Purdue has been relegated to playing the role of spoiler in this contest after losing seven of its last 10 games to fall to 13-15 SU on the year and 6-9 in Big Ten Play. It has failed to cover in six of its last eight games and is a costly 10-16-1 ATS overall. The Boilermakers have really struggled on the road this season with just three SU victories in 10 games and a 3-6-1 road record ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six games.
The surging Badgers will win the Big Ten regular season title if they win their final three games and Indiana loses one more time as a result of a 64-59 victory over the Hoosiers as 10 ˝-point road underdogs earlier in the year. They are now 11-4 SU in conference play and 22-6 overall with a 6-1 record in their last seven games. ATS, Wisconsin has covered in seven of its last nine games but is still below .500 on the year at 11-14. It has gone 15-2 SU at home this season and 8-7 ATS. The total has gone OVER in five of its last seven contests
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-03-13 05:32 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack
With smaller conference tournaments on the horizon, here are some trends with regards to how teams perform in these end-of-season events.......
-- Either #1 or #2 seed has won CAA tourney ten years in a row; UNCW was last non-Virginia winner, back in 2006.
-- Same thing in MAAC; nine of last ten winners were either #1/#2 seed; '11 St Peter's (11-7, #4 seed) being the exception.
-- Wichita State hasn't won MVC tourney since 1987; over last six years, they are only 5-6 in Arch Madness games. This could be their year.
-- Montana has severe injury issues, so Weber State will be favored to win the Big Sky, but Wildcats have won it only once in last seven years-- they blew a 20-point halftime lead in the '10 final, haven't won it since. Top seed has won Big Sky last two years, after winning it only once in previous six tournaments.
-- Last four times top seed won OVC tourney, that team won by 2+ games in regular season; this year's #1 seed? 12-4 Belmont, two games better than Eastern Kentucky, which lost at Tennessee State last night.
-- Davidson won SoCon tourney four of last seven years, but lost in first tournament game two of other three years.
*****
Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday........
13) Ryan Kelly was stellar with 36 points as Duke held off Miami 79-76, but if Kelly is just coming back from a foot injury, how smart was it to play him 32 stressful minutes in what was basically a meaninglesss game?
I'll chart his minutes played the rest of the way and keep you posted.
12) As much as Dick Vitale gushes over Duke, my lasting impression of this interesting, high-level game was this:
Sometimes the better team doesn't win. Miami is better than Duke.
11) VCU 84, Butler 52-- Bulldogs' first conference loss by 30+ points since 1986, against Oral Roberts. Lot of water under the bridge since then.
10) Angels renewed Mike Trout's contract at $510,000 for this season, $20,000 over the major league minimum, which annoyed agent Craig Landis, as it should have. Don't the Angels want to keep Trout long-term, or does it not matter in the long run? Trout will clean up later on no matter what.
As for Landis, will be interesting to see if Trout fires him. Scott Boras goes to most of the Angel home games, sits right behind the plate.
9) Creighton coach Greg McDermott said he has no voice in whether his Bluejays bolt the Missouri Valley Conference for the Big East; its going to be a basketball-driven league and you don't ask the coach, whose star player is also his son? Just seems odd.
In an unrelated rant, does the Big East need a team in Nebraska?
8) Oklahoma 86, Iowa State 69-- Sooners went 34-34 from foul line, tying all-time record for most FTs without a miss, a mark also held by Cal-Irvine ('81) and Samford ('90).
7) Virginia Cavaliers are doing well at 20-8, 10-5 in ACC, but they're 0-3 vs CAA teams, including a loss to a dreadful Old Dominion squad that fired its coach already. Trap game for Cavaliers against Boston College Sunday.
6) They have pitch counts in the World Baseball Classic, just like Little League; if you throw 50+ pitches, think you have to sit the next three days, but you do get a free freeze pop at the concession stand.
5) Not only do the Miami Marlins have a rookie manager, they've got 73 players in camp; seeing as only 25 make a big league roster, they've got their major league team, AAA team and AA team in major league camp. Sometimes you wonder if they know what they're doing.
A local kid named Mahoney from over the river in Troy homered twice for the Marlins Saturday; he's a first baseman who is a .274 career hitter in his 619 minor league games-- he had four ABs with Baltimore LY.
4) Watching Arizona-UCLA Saturday night, and one thing was very clear; Wildcats' coach Sean Miller has very little faith in his guards. He called one timeout when his point guard had ball in transition going full-tilt towards the basket. Arizona is 3-4 in its last seven games after a 20-2 start.
3) Three years ago, Erick Green scored 2.6 ppg in 12.6 mpg as a freshman at Virginia Tech; this year, Green is leading the country in scoring at 24.9 ppg. The lesson: Work on your game, improve your skills, and it'll pay off.
I'm convinced kids play too many games in the summer and do not work as much as they should on improving their skills. I sound old, I know.....
2) Saturday was the 51st anniversary of Wilt Chamberlain scoring 100 points in an NBA game, which for some reason, was played in Hershey, PA. How much money would the Big Dipper be getting paid in today's game?
1) Gonzaga has a certain amount of pressure on them this month; over last 11 years, Zags are just 2-6 in NCAA second round games, with one of those wins against a #12 seed that had posted a big first round upset. If you like to invest in basketball, know that Gonzaga covered only twice in its last nine games as an NCAA tournament favorite.
Sometimes its easier to be the hunter rather than the hunted; Gonzaga will be the hunted later this month, thats for sure.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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03-03-13 05:37 PM |
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