villanova has been great in the 1st half this year. villanova (1H) 13-3 ATS in the 1st half last 16 games.

cincinnati has not been great in the 1st half this year. cincinnati 5-10 (1H) ATS in the 1st half last 15 games.

nova coming off two blowout wins, cincinnati coming off two losses.

nova is 8-2 ats away. cincinnati is 2-9 ats at home.

going with villanova +4.5 @ -110, 330 for 300.

full game line has moved from cincinnati -6 to cincinnati -8 with only 26% of the action on cincinnati, so i'm holding off on the game. I might chase at halftime if i lose the 1H though. Anybody have any thoughts on this strange line movement?

Ytd 14-8-2 +1770

that is probably 26% of the bettors. NOt 26% of the money.

right, but that was my point, if only 26% of the bets made are on cincinnati and they are favored by 2 more points than before, all of the large $ bets must be going on cincinnati right?

seems very fishy

Correct. Ever go to a sports book in vegas and stand in line for guys making $20.00 bets while you get shut out trying to make a large play. I always look at reverse line movement.

Pete

yeah, kinda worried about my 1h play now, but gonna ride it out.

at least if i'm wrong, i held out on +8 for the game and will have the option of chasing the 2nd half with a bigger game spread (> than +8)

already on it
GL

+300

15-8-2 +2070