ATL +4 risk 5 units
ATL ML +170 risk 1/2 unit

-> Since 2007, PST teams are 15 – 44 when playing in the Eastern time zone.

-> The SF defense has allowed 28 PPG in their last 4 road games and is in the bottom 6 RZ defenses on the road.

-> Playoff teams scoring 40 or > are 3-20 ATS the following game.

An in-depth look at how overreaction inflated the 49ers-Falcons point spread.
JANUARY 16, 2013
Beyond The Bets

If the San Francisco 49ers were hosting the Seattle Seahawks in this week’s NFC Championship Game, there’s not a chance the spread would be in double digits.

And yet, based on the 49ers-Falcons point spread, that should be the case.

When the two teams met at Candlestick Park in Week 7, the Niners were favored by 7.5, and that was before the Seahawks became such a popular late-season team amongst the betting community. Given that Seattle was a 2.5-point home favorite in the Week 16 rematch, we can reasonably assume that San Francisco would be no more than a 4- or 5-point favorite if these rivals met this week in the NFC title game.

For argument’s sake, let’s assume the number would be 49ers -6.

Now, using that spread along with the fact that the Atlanta Falcons were 2.5-point home favorites over the Seahawks in last week’s NFC Divisional Round, let’s work backwards to see if this point spread adds up.

Seahawks at 49ers: San Francisco -6
Seahawks vs. 49ers, neutral field: San Francisco -3
Seahawks at Falcons: Atlanta -2.5
Seahawks vs. Falcons, neutral field: Seattle -1

So, if we can assume the 49ers are considered 3 points better than the Seahawks on a neutral field, and the Seahawks are 1 point better than the Falcons on a neutral field, that’d mean the 49ers are 4 points better than the Falcons on a neutral field.

It’s as if Atlanta’s home-field advantage isn’t even factored into the line.

We’ve reached the point in the season where bettors—more than ever—go entirely off what they saw most recently. And here’s what we saw last week.

Colin Kaepernick ran wild on the Green Bay defense.
The Falcons had a second-half collapse against Seattle that nearly cost them the game.
Is that all that matters? Hell no. But when it comes to public betting, apparently so. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution says that 75 percent of bets at Bovada are on the Niners. SportsInsights tells us the number is more around 70 percent. We have trolls like this from the San Francisco Chronicle saying Sunday’s game is a “mere formality” and that the Falcons will get “exposed.”

Atlanta is catching more points in a conference championship game than any No. 1 seed in known point spread history, but are we forgetting the fact that the Falcons are, ya know, a pretty good team in the Georgia Dome?

Combining regular season and the playoffs, Matt Ryan is 34-6 in home starts in his career. His .850 winning percentage currently ranks second best among quarterbacks whose careers began in the Super Bowl era.

The only quarterback better: Tom Brady of the Patriots (86-15, .851).

You’re giving a guy with an .850 career winning percentage at home more than a field goal in a conference championship game.

It might not work out for you if you bet Atlanta +4. If Kaepernick gets loose like he did against the Packers, shoot, the game could get ugly in a hurry against a suspect Falcons’ defense.

But the evidence seems to say that there’s all kinds of line value on the home underdog in this spot.

not biting, still taking the 49ers. good luck though............

Home dogs are 8-7 in Champ games since 1976.
The only #1 seed to be a home dog and win in Conf Title game
was the Raiders ( 1976 ) as a 4.5 pt HD.
Road Favorites in Title games are 6-3 ATS overall. Their were a
few times the #1 seed was not involved in the game.
........................................................................................................
Since 2008 ( Matt Ryan ) Atlanta has been a HD 7 times & they
are 5-2 ATS ( 71% ) 4 of 5 of those covers have been SU wins.
Last time Atlanta was a HD , 9-20-2011 a 6 pt HD vs G.B., they
lost 14-25.
Atlanta is the bigest HD of any #1 seed in any round of the
playoffs since 1978.
........................................................................................................
Atlanta has edge in Red Zone Off & Defense:
Atl OFF 37 TD & 20 FG 58% TD rate.......317 pts
Atl Def 19 TD & 15 FG 45.2% TD rate.....178 pts.
.........................................................................................................
S.F. OFF 28 TD & 20 FG 50.9% TD rate....256 pts.
S.F. Def 22 TD & 12 FG 61.1% TD rate....190 pts.

Frank Gore is 1-9 SU in his last 10 starts as an AF (Away Favorite) after choosing Wheaties at his breakfast of choice. Better hope it's Alex Smith, and a nice big bowl of Wheaties.


Good Luck RDTrains. Woot Woot!

1. Terry McAulay is the referee for the Atlanta-San Francisco game. The debate is always whether the officials will call a tight game or let the players play. McAulay's games tend to see more penalties than average. His crews ranked second with seven illegal contact calls but only 11 pass interferences were called during his games. The Falcons were the least penalized team in the NFL -- 55 penalties called against them for 415 yards. The 49ers need to be on guard because they had 109 penalties, seventh most in the league. Offensive linemen also need to be careful because his crews watch blockers closely. McAulay's 52 holding calls tied with Ron Winter for the most among the officials. As a result, McAulay's games average 44 points a game, 1.7 below the league average.

2. I realize this is a very small sample but still could be something important that applies to this game.

The quarterbacks with the fewest regular-season starts entering an NFC-AFC Championship:

A) Jeff Hostetler
N.Y. Giants
1990
4
Won 15-13 at San Francisco

B) Shaun King
Tampa Bay
1999
5
Lost 11-6 at St. Louis

C) Vince Ferragamo
L.A. Rams
1979
5
Won 9-0 at Tampa Bay

D) Pat Haden
L.A. Rams
1976
7
Lost 24-13

E) Colin Kaepernick
SF 49ers
2013
7
?

In the other four instances where QBs with 7 or less games of reg season experience played in the Championship Game their teams scored 15, 6, 9 & 13 points.