say i have numbers that give winners at this rate in cbb, not ats, that would be a no brainer and a miracle, but SU game winners.

line %win SU
7-9.5 87%
10-13.5 88%
14+ 97%

also
moneyline %win
over -800 97%

how can these be used to profit?
i am thinking teasers/parlays somehow but not sure. I want to know mathematically. Anyone have a clue. What is the best strategy. These are over 1000's of games so the confidence level is very high.

My early thought is special teasers that would get these lines pretty much even.

So 4 teams at 13 pts at let us say 92% win rate. Is this profitable?

Or 3 teams at 10 pts at say 88% win rate. Is this profitable? I think is becomes -130 on that.

Or 3 team parlay of over -800 teams winning 97% each team. Would pay 30% profit if wins.

Maybe these are really tough math problems.

Anyone know?

on the ml i found this

-800 to -850 89%
-850 to -950 90%
-950 to -1000 91%

those are the percents that have to hit to break even. so with the percents above it is possible to make a small profit betting the ml's su. I hate to do that though. I wont. I am guessing with the parlay the profits would increase but not sure how much.

with a 90% chance of hitting one team the chance of hitting a 3 team ml parlay is 72.9.

hmm, how did they get the 72.9?

Required win percentage = Amount risked / (Amount risked + Amount of win)

the formula for finding what percent you have to win to make ml profit.

how do you work this into a formula for multiple teams?

.90x.90x.90= .7290

Two-team parlays: First figure out the winning percentage of the two-teamer – 55% (win percentage on each game of the parlay) x 55% = 30.25%. So our formula is now 30.25% x 13/5 (return on a win) then subtract 69.75% (chance of losing the parlay) x 1 (loss on a losing parlay) to get a profit expectation of 8.9%.

Three-team parlays: Odds of winning the three-teamer: 55% x 55% x 55% = 16.6375%. The formula is thus 16.6375% x 6 (return on winning parlay) subtract 83.3625% x 1 to get a profit expectation of 16.463%.

so, how the hell do i use this now for ml parlays? I think this is the formula?

How about just posting some test and see the results.

Also you have to consider what a three team parlay with that high of moneyline pays..

Trust me, the big boys have done the math and its in their favor..

Would be interesting to follow up though

Thanks Tex, kinda tricky with all the moving parts.

I would think that with a winning percentage that would be profitable betting the ml's su it could be just turned over into ml parlays and become more profitable.

Same thing with special teasers of 3 or 4 getting them down to even or very close.

It would be nice to have the math though, telling me which is the more profitable way to go at this. I may work on it more later. Brain kinda just froze up for now.

My point is the payout for 3 teams at ml of -800 is only 42 on 100. So, for everyone you lose you have to hit 2.5.

they know all this, so there are no easy winners.