I played each of the bowl games 20 times with the following results:

Arizona 14-6 over Nevada (29.9-25.5)
Utah State 17-3 over Toledo (32.5-15.1)
BYU 13-7 over San Diego State (20.5-14.1)
UCF 15-5 over Ball State (29.3-21.2)
La-Lafayette 12-8 over East Carolina (30.4-23.0)
Boise State 16-4 over Washington (21.8-9.8)
Fresno State 17-3 over SMU (27.1-10.3)
Western Kentucky 12-8 over Central Michigan (28.7-24.3)
San Jose State 14-6 over Bowling Green (24.0-17.2)
Cincinnati 18-2 over Duke (37.3-23.0)
Baylor 12-8 over UCLA (33.0-27.5)
La-Monroe 16-4 over Ohio (31.9-19.5)
Virginia Tech 18-2 over Rutgers (26.5-14.6)
Texas Tech 17-3 over Minnesota (34.5-15.6)
Air Force 11-9 over Rice (32.5-27.6)
Arizona State 15-5 over Navy (25.3-16.6)
West Virginia 12-8 over Syracuse (34.2-29.8)
Texas 14-6 over Oregon State (31.8-29.1)
TCU 12-8 over Michigan State (16.9-14.9)
Vanderbilt 18-2 over NC State (31.2-11.6)
USC 12-8 over Georgia Tech (31.1-27.8)
Tulsa 14-6 over Iowa State (22.0-15.9)
LSU 13-7 over Clemson (30.0-22.5)
Oklahoma State 17-3 over Purdue (33.0-19.8)
Northwestern 15-5 over Mississippi State (23.4-18.5)
Nebraska 12-8 over Georgia (28.4-28.4)
South Carolina 11-9 over Michigan (26.4-22.9)
Texas A&M 11-9 over Oklahoma (32.2-30.0)
Pittsburgh 16-4 over Mississippi (32.0-23.4)
Arkansas State 12-8 over Kent State (28.4-22.8)
Stanford 11-9 over Wisconsin (18.4-16.1)
Florida State 17-3 over Northern Illinois (31.0-21.0)
Florida 19-1 over Louisville (28.0-11.9)
Kansas State 12-8 over Oregon (29.4-23.9)
Alabama 20-0 over Notre Dame (26.6-13.4)

What exactly are the best bets according to the current spreads with these simulations?

Working on that now....

Good work man!

Nevada +9.5 vs Arizona (14-6)
Utah State -10 vs Toledo (12-8)
BYU -2.5 vs San Diego State (12-8)
UCF -7.5 vs Ball State (11-9)
East Carolina +6 vs La-Lafayette (11-8-1)
Boise State -5 vs Washington (14-6)
Fresno State -12.5 vs SMU (11-9)
Central Michigan +5 vs Western Kentucky (11-9)
Bowling Green +7.5 vs San Jose State (12-8)
Cincinnati -7.5 vs Duke (11-9)
Baylor Pk vs UCLA (12-8)
La-Monroe -7.5 vs Ohio (13-7)
Virginia Tech -2.5 vs Rutgers (15-5)
Texas Tech -12.5 vs Minnesota (13-7)
Air Force -1 vs Rice (11-9)
Arizona State/Navy NO LINE
West Virginia -4 vs Syracuse (10-9-1)
Texas +2 vs Oregon State (14-5-1)
TCU -2.5 vs Michigan State (11-9)
Vanderbilt -7 vs NC State (15-5)
Georgia Tech +10 vs USC (14-5-1)
Tulsa Pk vs Iowa State (14-6)
LSU -4 vs Clemson (11-8-1)
Purdue +16.5 vs Oklahoma State (13-7)
Northwestern +2.5 vs Mississippi State (15-5)
Nebraska +10 vs Georgia (16-4)
South Carolina -5.5 vs Michigan (10-10)
Oklahoma +4.5 vs Texas A&M (11-9)
Pittsburgh +3.5 vs Mississippi (17-3)
Arkansas State -4 vs Kent State (11-9)
Wisconsin +7 vs Stanford (10-7-3)
Florida State -13 vs Northern Illinois (10-10)
Florida -13.5 vs Louisville (11-9)
Kansas State +9.5 vs Oregon (17-3)
Alabama -10 vs Notre Dame (10-6-4)

Pittsburgh +3.5 vs Mississippi (17-3)
Kansas State +9.5 vs Oregon (17-3)
Nebraska +10 vs Georgia (16-4)
Virginia Tech -2.5 vs Rutgers (15-5)
Vanderbilt -7 vs NC State (15-5)
Northwestern +2.5 vs Mississippi State (15-5)

For those of you that are fairly new, his simulations last year were absolutely flaming. Obviously things can change, but I'm in win, lose or draw!! Thanks again!!

I'm also loving Boise -5. (14-6) close one

even the 13-7 last year was hot.

Great stuff, it will help me fill out my pool sheet.

12/31 Vanderbilt at -9.5 or less
1/1 Northwestern as Pk or + anything
1/5 Pittsburgh at Pk or + anything
1/1 Nebraska at +7.5 or more
1/3 Kansas State at +7.5 or more
12/28 Virginia Tech only at -2.5 or less

These are not at 15-5 with the current lines, but will be if the lines move to:

12/29 Texas at +2.5 or more
12/31 Georgia Tech at +10.5 or more
Nevada at +10.5 or more (doubt it)
La-Monroe at -5.5 or less (doubt it)
Texas Tech at -10.5 or less (doubt it)


Any not listed would have to move in excess of 3 points + to get to 15-5.

Love this!

I took some notes from another site

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/weekly_picks.html

It might be worth looking at to give 2 computer models. Maybe weed out some things?

Either way, great info, just what I needed.

I will say they have

Bowling Green
Texas
Clemson
Oklahoma
Pittsburgh

as dogs that can win SU.

Looks like you have
Texas
Pittsburgh

that match up with them as dogs.

They are also their highest rated dogs. Looks like ML play?

do you have the record for those plays that didnt reach the 15-5 criteria? a poster mentioned that those plays were hot as well........thanks for sharing the system>>>GL :)

Nevada +8.5 vs Arizona (14-6) -- WINNER
Utah State -10.5 vs Toledo (12-8) -- WINNER

Are these done with some kind of software program?-thanks

Lance Haffner Games

do you have any records for those plays that did not reach the 15-5 criteria?thanks again.

FINAL RESULTS FOR SIMULATIONS
10-0 ATS in games from New Year's Day to the championship

SU Winner 28-7
ATS Winner 19-11
13-7 or better 12-5

Wyoming +7 vs Temple (13-6-1) -- LOSER
Utah State -1 vs Ohio (10-8-2) -- LOSER
San Diego State -6 vs La-Lafayette (12-8) -- LOSER
Fla International -4 vs Marshall (11-8-1) -- LOSER
TCU -10 vs Louisiana Tech (10-9-1) -- LOSER
Arizona State +14.5 vs Boise State (15-5) -- LOSER
Nevada +7.5 vs Southern Miss (13-7) -- WINNER
Missouri -4.5 vs North Carolina (12-8) -- WINNER
Purdue -1.5 vs Western Michigan (15-5) -- WINNER
Notre Dame +3 vs Florida State (12-7-1) -- LOSER
Washington +8 vs Baylor (12-8) -- LOSER
Tulsa -2.5 vs BYU (15-5) -- LOSER
Rutgers +1.5 vs Iowa State (14-6) -- WINNER
Wake Forest +7 vs Mississippi State (10-9-1) -- WINNER
Oklahoma -14 vs Iowa (10-9-1) -- WINNER
Texas A&M -9.5 vs Northwestern (11-9) -- WINNER
Georgia Tech -1.5 vs Utah (13-7) -- LOSER
Illinois -3 vs UCLA (15-5) -- WINNER
Cincinnati +2 vs Vanderbilt (13-7) -- WINNER
Virginia +3 vs Auburn (16-4) -- LOSER
Houston -6.5 vs Penn State (13-7) -- WINNER
South Carolina -3 vs Nebraska (11-9) -- WINNER
Florida -3 vs Ohio State (13-7) -- WINNER
Michigan State +2.5 vs Georgia (13-7) -- WINNER
Stanford +5 vs Oklahoma State (11-7-2) -- WINNER
West Virginia +3 vs Clemson (15-5) -- WINNER
Arkansas -9.5 vs Kansas State (12-8) -- WINNER
SMU +3.5 vs Pittsburgh (17-3) -- WINNER
Northern Illinois +1.5 vs Arkansas State (13-7) -- WINNER
Alabama -1.5 vs LSU (15-5) -- WINNER

2009-2010 (13-7 or better was 11-5)
Clemson (-6.5) 19-1 over Kentucky -- WINNER
Missouri (-6.5) 16-4 over Navy -- LOSER
Air Force (+4.5) 16-4 over Houston -- WINNER
Central Michigan (-2.5) 16-4 over Troy -- WINNER
Pittsburgh (-1) 14-4-2 over North Carolina -- WINNER
Fresno State (-10) 15-5 over Wyoming -- LOSER
Northern Illinois (+6.5) 15-5 over South Florida -- LOSER
Michigan State (+9.5) 15-5 over Texas Tech -- LOSER
Middle Tennessee (+3.5) 14-6 over Southern Miss -- WINNER
Penn State (+2) 14-6 over LSU -- WINNER
UCLA (-4) 12-6-2 over Temple -- WINNER
Wisconsin (+3.5) 13-7 over Miami-FL -- WINNER
Stanford (+10) 13-7 over Oklahoma -- WINNER
Auburn (-9) 13-7 over Northwestern -- LOSER
Boise State (+7) 11-6-3 over TCU -- WINNER
Connecticut (+4) 12-7-1 over South Carolina -- WINNER

2008-09 (15-5 or better was 4-2)
Iowa -3.5 vs South Carolina (16-4) -- WINNER
Penn State +10 vs USC (15-4-1) -- LOSER
Florida -3 vs Oklahoma (15-4-1) -- WINNER
Arizona -3 vs BYU (14-4-2) -- WINNER
Notre Dame +1.5 vs Hawaii (15-5) -- WINNER
East Carolina -1.5 vs Kentucky (15-5) -- LOSER