The second half of the “Sunshine Double” is the Miami Open, which takes place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida over the next two weeks. This tournament, much like the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, is one of the biggest non-majors of the year. So, even though Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal aren’t in the Miami Open field, this is still a loaded event for both the men and the women.

Andy Murray vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Murray scored a big win over Matteo Berrettini in his first Miami Open match. The three-time Grand Slam champion served at a very high level, which is something he has now done in each of his last few matches. The Brit is just playing some good tennis right now, which is why I’m looking for him to snap a two-match losing streak to Etcheverry. The Argentine hasn’t played in over a month, as he suffered a hamstring injury against Nicolas Jarry at the Argentina Open. With that in mind, I don’t see him coming into this event and instantly finding his form. And his edge over Murray comes from his aggressive play along the baseline. If he’s just a little off from back there, Murray will take advantage of it.

Jack Draper vs. Nicolas Jarry

Draper is probably a better all-around player than Jarry, but these odds seem a bit off. Jarry hasn’t had a great season thus far, but he has a booming serve and the ability to really dictate play from the baseline. If he’s playing at anything close to his best level, this is a match that should be extremely competitive. On top of that, Draper is a player with serious conditioning concerns. As an overweight individual, I won’t sit here and tell you he’s out of shape. Draper is actually extremely chiseled and looks like he can star in a Marvel movie. But he has had problems battling humidity throughout his career. So, if this ends up being a physical match, Jarry should outlast him. That’s why I’m playing Jarry to win a set and also sprinkling the moneyline. I don’t think it’s a guarantee that Draper even finishes this match.

Jack Draper vs. Nicolas Jarry

Draper is probably a better all-around player than Jarry, but these odds seem a bit off. Jarry hasn’t had a great season thus far, but he has a booming serve and the ability to really dictate play from the baseline. If he’s playing at anything close to his best level, this is a match that should be extremely competitive. On top of that, Draper is a player with serious conditioning concerns. As an overweight individual, I won’t sit here and tell you he’s out of shape. Draper is actually extremely chiseled and looks like he can star in a Marvel movie. But he has had problems battling humidity throughout his career. So, if this ends up being a physical match, Jarry should outlast him. That’s why I’m playing Jarry to win a set and also sprinkling the moneyline. I don’t think it’s a guarantee that Draper even finishes this match.

Bet: Jarry +1.5 Sets (-128 – 1.5 units) & Jarry ML (+240 – 0.5 units)

Alex Michelsen vs. Tallon Griekspoor

This is a match between two players with a ton of power, but Griekspoor just has more experience and polish to his game. That should help him overcome the crowd support Michelsen will have. Griekspoor has had some tough losses this year, but those were against far better players than Michelsen. Honestly, these odds feel a little disrespectful considering what Griekspoor has accomplished on tour in the last two years. That will matter when we get to big points and Michelsen doesn’t know how to handle himself. He hasn’t quite been there before.

Bet: Griekspoor ML (-122 – 1.5 units)

Dan Evans vs. Christopher Eubanks

Evans has a much better all-around game than Eubanks. Sure, the American has an absolute missile of a serve, but Evans should be able to put pressure on him by blocking the ball back. The Brit is a much better baseline player, so most long rallies should go his way. Evans also snapped out of his funk with a win over Lorenzo Sonego. He had never beaten Sonego before and went into that match in poor form. But he came bursting out of it by dominating the second and third sets. Look for Evans to build on that now.

Bet: Evans ML (-155)

Tomas Machac vs. Matteo Arnaldi

Machac and Arnaldi played one another in Dubai qualifiers last year, when the Czech earned a 6-0, 6-1 win in under an hour. The interesting thing about that is that Machac’s game has gone to a whole other level since. The Czech is 9-6 in his first full season at the ATP level, and he has scored wins over some great players. In fact, he already has victories over Andrey Rublev and Andy Murray this week. Now, Machac is going to feel very good about his chances of moving to 2-0 against Arnaldi.

Both of these players have complete baseline games, so this match should be pretty pleasing on the eye. But Machac has a bit more firepower from both wings. When he’s dialed in, he can hit his opponents off the court. Machac is also a bit better as both a server and a returner, according to Tennis Abstract’s hold and break percentages. With that in mind, I’m not overthinking this match. I’m taking the better all-around player that wiped the floor with this same opponent a year ago.

Bet: Machac ML (-120 – 1.5 units)

Yulia Putintseva vs. Victoria Azarenka

Maria Sakkari vs. Elena Rybakina

I do like both Azarenka and Rybakina to win their matches, but I couldn’t figure out how to play them with the game or set spreads.

It’s just hard to see how Putintseva is going to find a way to beat Azarenka here. Azarenka is 2-0 against Putintseva in her career, and she might just have too much power for her. That isn’t always a deciding factor in Azarenka’s matches, as she can occasionally be erratic from the baseline. But she really enjoys playing in Miami, and she also has a significant advantage on her serve.

As for Rybakina, she isn’t playing her best tennis right now, but she’s still a tough matchup for Sakkari. She’s one of the best servers on the planet, while Sakkari can occasionally struggle to win easy service games. And Rybakina’s power from the baseline could be a little overwhelming for Sakkari on low-bouncing courts.

Parlay: Azarenka ML + Rybakina ML (-120)

Danielle Collins vs. Caroline Garcia

Collins grew up in St. Petersburg and later trained at IMG Academy. She is at home when playing in Florida, so she absolutely loves these conditions. She also has the full crowd cheering her on, and that’s only amplified by the fact that this is her last season. Collins also happens to be 3-0 in three meetings with Garcia, and all three of those matches were decided in straight sets. Collins has just dominated Garcia and that’s because of her elite return game. Garcia is one of the most dangerous servers on tour, but Collins is capable of getting balls back and flipping the script in her favor. And she has a big edge over Garcia when it comes to baseline play. That said, I’m playing the American to cover a small game spread. I don’t buy what we have seen from Garcia in the last week. She has scored massive wins over Coco Gauff and Naomi Osaka, but her form has been inconsistent for the better part of two years.

Bet: Collins -2.5 Games (-136)

only game spread i can find for Danielle Collins vs. Caroline Garcia is my local at -3.5 -117

Grigor Dimitrov vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Dimitrov beat Alcaraz when the two met in Shanghai last year. However, that match came during a stretch in which Alcaraz wasn’t himself. The Spaniard really struggled to find consistency after Wimbledon last year, and it seemed like he was completely worn out. But he’s refreshed now, and he’s actually playing the best tennis of his career. Alcaraz won Indian Wells last week and currently has career-highs in both hold percentage and break percentage. He has also displayed more patience from the baseline. All of that will make him extremely difficult to beat moving forward.

Alcaraz had also beaten Dimitrov in straight sets in their previous three matches, so this matchup has mostly been very kind to the Spaniard. And Dimitrov comes into this match after having played a physical three-set match against Hubert Hurkacz last round. If he is dealing with any sort of fatigue, Alcaraz will run him off the court. But even at full strength, it’s going to be hard for Dimitrov to make Alcaraz sweat here. The best thing Dimitrov can do is pepper Alcaraz with slice shots to try and draw some mistakes out of him. But Alcaraz has been avoiding those errors lately.

Bet: Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (-150)

msu, what site are you seeing game sets being offered?

Scottie Scheffler shots a 5-under 65.

Scottie +140 to win Houston Open.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner

Sinner has won four matches in a row against Medvedev. But the Russian really had Sinner on the ropes in the Australian Open final. Medvedev raced out to a two-set lead in that match, but he completely ran out of steam. Medvedev had played a bunch of marathon matches before that meeting with Sinner, including back-to-back matches that lasted four hours against Hubert Hurkacz and Alexander Zverev. Both of those matches were extremely physical, so Medvedev had nothing left. But he did show that he had a game plan to rattle Sinner early in the match, and I expect him to go back to it here.

Medvedev is normally a player that relies solely on defense, but he put his front foot forward and tried to be the aggressor in those first two sets. So, I’d expect Medvedev to try to end rallies earlier by going for winners, and I can also see him approaching the net a little. That’s not to say that Medvedev will completely get away from grinding from the baseline. But he can do a better job of mixing it up.

These conditions also suit Medvedev a little better. Sinner’s powerful baseline game isn’t quite as dangerous in the heat and humidity. And Sinner has also had some conditioning issues in the past. The same can’t be said for Medvedev, who is the most fit player on tour.

Grigor Dimitrov vs. Alexander Zverev

Not only is Zverev 7-1 in eight career meetings with Dimitrov, but he has won seven in a row. So, Dimitrov hasn’t beaten Zverev since 2014. And that was when Zverev was just a teenager. This is just a matchup that has given Dimitrov a lot of trouble, and I’m not sure anything is changing here. I know Dimitrov is coming off an impressive win over Carlos Alcaraz, but that was the Bulgarian playing A+ tennis against a guy that was really off his game. And I have a hard time believing Dimitrov will find that level again.

The reality here is that Zverev might just have a little too big of a game for Dimitrov. Zverev is one of the most dominant servers on tour, and Dimitrov hasn’t had an answer for it in the past. If he’s getting the serve back in play, it’s usually just a block back for an easy serve-plus-one. And Zverev has used his length well in the return game to get to Dimitrov’s serve. Also, Zverev’s two-handed backhand is masterful, so he gets the better of Dimitrov in backhand-to-backhand exchanges. That means that Dimitrov’s best chance here will be attacking the Zverev forehand. But that thing was a serious weapon in Zverev’s win over Karen Khachanov two rounds ago. And it held up nicely against Fabian Marozsan.

It would just take a very bad performance from Zverev for Dimitrov to find a way here. I’d rather lean on the history between these two, as I think it paints a good picture of this matchup.

Bet: Zverev ML (-149 – 2 units)

Miami Open Women’s Final: Danielle Collins vs. Elena Rybakina

Rybakina has gotten the better of Collins in each of their last three matches, but there’s something different about this version of the American. With this being her final time playing the Miami Open, Collins is soaking in the atmosphere and playing some of the best tennis of her career. Collins has been especially dominant as a returner in this tournament, breaking her opponent at least twice in 10 of the 13 sets she has played thus far. That’s an absurd number and should do her well against one of the best servers on the planet. And Collins has also been rock-solid when it’s her turn to serve, which has allowed her to win four matches in a row in straight sets.

Collins’ work as a returner is going to put a lot of pressure on Rybakina, who will already have to deal with a very rowdy crowd. That’s going to be rough for Rybakina, especially considering Colins is the better baseline player between these two. Rybakina is one of the best players in the world, so it’s not like she’s lousy from back there. But she doesn’t move around the court very well, and that’s a problem against a player like Collins. The American is going to be in attack mode all throughout this match, and she’ll do everything she can to move Rybakina around.

Overall, Rybakina probably wins this match more often than not, but Collins is in rare form right now. And it just feels like this story ends with her winning the biggest title of her career — and doing so in her home state. That said, I’d rather take the plus-money odds on Collins than lay the juice with Rybakina.

Bet: Collins ML (+152)

Miami Open Men’s Final: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Jannik Sinner

Sinner absolutely dominated Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals, earning a 6-1, 6-2 win in a little over an hour. That was a match that many expected to be close, and I was on the Russian in that spot. But Sinner just didn’t give him an inch. Medvedev, who is one of the best returners in the world, looked lost when it was Sinner’s turn to serve. And the Italian was relentless in putting pressure on Medvedev when he was returning. It was just a flawless performance from Sinner, who is in the midst of a historic season. But I have a hard time not backing Dimitrov to at least make a run at this.

Dimitrov has played some of the best tennis of his career in Miami, as he earned a straightforward 6-2, 6-4 win over Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals and backed it up with a 6-4, 6-7 (4), 6-4 win over Alexander Zverev in the semifinals. The latter was a little harder for Dimitrov, but it still felt like he was in control the whole time. He has just had such a clear vision for how he wants to play this week, and that has brought out the best in him. Dimitrov has been on the attack for most of the tournament, moving his opponents around and then coming up to execute at the net. The Bulgarian has also been as sturdy as they come as both a server and returner. If he continues to do that, he can make Sinner sweat.

I just think we’ll see some close sets in this match, and I think a determined Dimitrov will lean on his experience in big moments. I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. The reality is that the version of Dimitrov that beat Alcaraz and Zverev can beat anyone.

Bet: Dimitrov +1.5 Sets (-120 – 2 units) & Dimitrov ML (+250 – 0.5 units)

Miami Open Men’s Final: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Jannik Sinner

Sinner absolutely dominated Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals, earning a 6-1, 6-2 win in a little over an hour. That was a match that many expected to be close, and I was on the Russian in that spot. But Sinner just didn’t give him an inch. Medvedev, who is one of the best returners in the world, looked lost when it was Sinner’s turn to serve. And the Italian was relentless in putting pressure on Medvedev when he was returning. It was just a flawless performance from Sinner, who is in the midst of a historic season. But I have a hard time not backing Dimitrov to at least make a run at this.

Dimitrov has played some of the best tennis of his career in Miami, as he earned a straightforward 6-2, 6-4 win over Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals and backed it up with a 6-4, 6-7 (4), 6-4 win over Alexander Zverev in the semifinals. The latter was a little harder for Dimitrov, but it still felt like he was in control the whole time. He has just had such a clear vision for how he wants to play this week, and that has brought out the best in him. Dimitrov has been on the attack for most of the tournament, moving his opponents around and then coming up to execute at the net. The Bulgarian has also been as sturdy as they come as both a server and returner. If he continues to do that, he can make Sinner sweat.

I just think we’ll see some close sets in this match, and I think a determined Dimitrov will lean on his experience in big moments. I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. The reality is that the version of Dimitrov that beat Alcaraz and Zverev can beat anyone.

Bet: Dimitrov +1.5 Sets (+110 – 2 units) & Dimitrov ML (+325 – 0.5 units)