Last seven years, favorites are 18-9-1 ATS in these play-in games; 8-6 in the 16-seed games, 10-3-1 in the 11-seed games.

Wagner vs Howard (-3.5)
Wagner (16-15)
KenPom rating: 293
Tempo: 361
Experience: 320
Continuity: 254
Wagner went 7-9 in NEC, 2nd-worst league in country.
Seahawks are in NCAAs for first time since 2003.
Wagner is shooting 42.8% inside arc (#358)
Seahawks are 13-10 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
Wagner is 4-6 in its D-I non-league games.
NEC teams are 5-5 in play-in games.

Howard (18-16)
KenPom rating: 276
Tempo: 163
Experience: 299
Continuity: 225
Howard won seven of its last eight games.
Bison is 4-10 in its D-I non-league games.
Howard is turning ball over 21.7% of time (#354)
Bison is shooting 37.5% on the arc (#19).
Howard is 15-10 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
MEAC teams are 4-4 in play-in games.

Colorado State (-1.5) vs Virginia
Colorado State (24-10)
KenPom rating: 38
Tempo: 270
Experience: 67
Continuity: 127
Colorado State won four of its last five games.
Rams are 10-1 in their D-I non-league games.
CSU is shooting 57.6% inside arc (#9).
Rams are 11-9 vs top 100 teams.
CSU is in NCAA’s for 2nd time in last 10 years.
Rams (+1.5) lost 75-63 to Michigan in ’22, as a #6-seed.

Virginia (26-7)
KenPom rating: 69
Tempo: 362
Experience: 102
Continuity: 223
Virginia is 4-5 in its last nine games.
Both their games in ACC Tournament went to overtime.
Cavaliers are shooting 46.8% inside arc (#310)
Virginia has #14 eFG% defense in country.
Cavaliers are 4-5 vs top 50 teams.
Virginia lost 3 of its last 4 first round games; the other year, they won the national championship.

ACC teams are 3-2 SU/ATS against Mountain West opponents this year.
Favorites covered all five games.

Grambling vs Montana State (-3.5) (@ Dayton, OH)
Grambling (20-14)
KenPom rating: 267
Tempo: 314
Experience: 210
Continuity: 188
Grambling won SWAC regular season, going 14-4.
Tigers are 0-10 SU in their D-I non-conference games.
Grambling did play the #4 non-conference schedule.
Grambling is turning ball over 20.6% of time (#341)
Tigers are #334 team on defensive boards.
Grambling is 17-6 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
This is Grambling’s first-ever NCAA tourney game.
SWAC teams are 4-10 in play-in games.

Montana State (17-17)
KenPom rating: 213
Tempo: 96
Experience: 208
Continuity: 257
Montana State is in NCAA’s for 3rd year in a row.
TY, they went 9-9 in Big Sky; last two years, Bobcats were 31-7 in Big Sky.
Bobcats are 3-7 SU in their D-I non-conference games.
Opponents are shooting 54.1% inside arc (#333)
Montana State has #45 eFG% in country.
Bobcats are 9-7 vs teams ranked outside top 200.

Colorado (-2.5) vs Boise State
Colorado (24-10)
KenPom rating: 26
Tempo: 165
Experience: 178
Continuity: 61
Colorado won eight of its last nine games.
Buffs are 9-2 in non-conference games TY.
Colorado has #18 eFG% in the country.
Buffs are #15 team in country on defensive boards.
Colorado is 11-8 vs teams in top 100.
Colorado is in NCAA’s for 2nd time in four years.

Boise State (22-10)
KenPom rating: 39
Tempo: 221
Experience: 128
Continuity: 66
Boise State won six of its last eight games.
Broncos are 7-4 SU in their D-I non-conference games.
Opponents are shooting 52.1% inside arc (#258)
Boise State is #5 team in country on defensive boards.
Boise State is 6-7 vs top 50 teams.
All-time, Boise State is 0-9 in NCAA Tournament games.

Mountain West teams are 6-1 vs Pac-12 this season.
Only loss was Colorado’s 88-83 loss at Colorado State.

In First Four games, UNDERs are 29-19 (60%) since 2011


Tuesday's First Four:

61% of bets are on Howard-Wagner OVER 128.5

57% of bets are on Colorado State-Virginia OVER 120.5

In First Four games, teams getting +50% of bets have gone 19-28 (40%) ATS

Tuesday's First Four:

65% of bets on Howard -3.5
52% of bets on Colorado State -2.5

Updated Colorado State-Virginia betting at BetMGM

Colorado St open -1.5, now -2.5
▪️ 52% of bets, 59% of money on Colorado State

Total open 118.5, now 120.5
▪️ 57% of bets, 56% of money on Over

Virginia open +110, now +125
▪️ 77% of bets, 76% of money on Virginia

Updated Howard-Wagner betting at BetMGM

Howard open -3.5, no movement
▪️ 65% of bets, 64% of money on Howard

Total open 127.5, now 128.5
▪️ 61% of bets, 62% of money on Over

Wagner open +135, now +145
▪️ 52% of bets, 39% of money on Wagner

Mike thank you for the hard work you put in doing this day in a day out. I for one greatly appreciate what you do.
I hope you have a great run in the tourney.

Pete

I second that Mike !!

3rds. The man is a machine.

Colorado spread vs. Boise State at BetMGM

-1.5: Open

-2.5: This morning

-3.5: Now

84% of money is on Colorado to cover