Thursday, 01/25/2024 (549) DENVER vs. (550) NEW YORK
Favoring: NEW YORK against the spread.
Play On - Home teams (NEW YORK) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), dominant rebounding team (>=+5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game)
(38-12 since 1996.) (76.0%, +24.8 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (555) CHICAGO vs. (556) LA LAKERS
Favoring: LA LAKERS against the spread.
Play On - Favorites (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a loss by 10 points or more
(75-34 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%, +37.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (545) PHILADELPHIA vs. (546) INDIANA
Favoring: PHILADELPHIA against the spread.
Play Against - Home underdogs (INDIANA) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game)
(43-16 since 1996.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (545) PHILADELPHIA vs. (546) INDIANA
Favoring: PHILADELPHIA against the spread.
Play Against - Home underdogs (INDIANA) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games
(43-16 since 1996.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (553) SACRAMENTO vs. (554) GOLDEN STATE
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
(75-31 since 1996.) (70.8%, +40.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2 -1.2 units).

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (553) SACRAMENTO vs. (554) GOLDEN STATE
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season
(36-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (543) UTAH vs. (544) WASHINGTON
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games
(43-15 since 1996.) (74.1%, +26.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1 -0.1 units).

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (547) BOSTON vs. (548) MIAMI
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games
(56-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +30.7 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-5 +0.5 units).

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (555) CHICAGO vs. (556) LA LAKERS
Favoring: LA LAKERS on the first half line.
Play On - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (LA LAKERS) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher
(42-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +26.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (545) PHILADELPHIA vs. (546) INDIANA
Favoring: INDIANA on the first half line.
Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
(391-261 since 1996.) (60.0%, +103.9 units. Rating=2*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-5 +3.5 units).

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (545) PHILADELPHIA vs. (546) INDIANA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 116 (INDIANA) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (543) UTAH vs. (544) WASHINGTON
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 116 (WASHINGTON) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more 2 straight games
(98-50 since 1996.) (66.2%, +43 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (29-15 +12.5 units).

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (549) DENVER vs. (550) NEW YORK
Favoring: NEW YORK against the spread.
NEW YORK is 10-0 ATS (+10 Units) in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.
The average score was NEW YORK 117.8, OPPONENT 102 - (Rating = 4*)

Friday, 01/26/2024 (557) DALLAS vs. (558) ATLANTA
Favoring: DALLAS against the spread.
ATLANTA is 5-20 ATS (-17 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 121.2, OPPONENT 124.6 - (Rating = 4*)

Friday, 01/26/2024 (557) DALLAS vs. (558) ATLANTA
Favoring: DALLAS against the spread.
ATLANTA is 5-23 ATS (-20.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 119.1, OPPONENT 123.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Friday, 01/26/2024 (557) DALLAS vs. (558) ATLANTA
Favoring: DALLAS against the spread.
ATLANTA is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 118.9, OPPONENT 131 - (Rating = 4*)

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (553) SACRAMENTO vs. (554) GOLDEN STATE
Favoring: Under on the total.
GOLDEN STATE is 11-0 UNDER (+11 Units) in home games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 112.7, OPPONENT 109.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (549) DENVER vs. (550) NEW YORK
Favoring: Under on the total.
DENVER is 15-1 UNDER (+13.9 Units) after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 108.8, OPPONENT 107.6 - (Rating = 4*)

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (551) MINNESOTA vs. (552) BROOKLYN
Favoring: Over on the total.
BROOKLYN is 32-11 OVER (+19.9 Units) when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BROOKLYN 110.3, OPPONENT 110 - (Rating = 3*)

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (553) SACRAMENTO vs. (554) GOLDEN STATE
Favoring: Over on the total.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-7 OVER (+13.3 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 118.7, OPPONENT 121.5 - (Rating = 3*)

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (553) SACRAMENTO vs. (554) GOLDEN STATE
Favoring: SACRAMENTO on the first half line.
GOLDEN STATE is 4-17 (-14.7 Units) against the 1rst half line in a home game where the first half total >= 111 this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 57, OPPONENT 59.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (547) BOSTON vs. (548) MIAMI
Favoring: BOSTON on the first half line.
BOSTON is 96-49 (+42.1 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 57.8, OPPONENT 52.9 - (Rating = 3*)

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (547) BOSTON vs. (548) MIAMI
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
MIAMI is 26-5 OVER (+20.5 Units) the 1rst half total after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 58.8, OPPONENT 55.7 - (Rating = 5*)

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (555) CHICAGO vs. (556) LA LAKERS
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
LA LAKERS are 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.6, OPPONENT 54.9 - (Rating = 4*)

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (543) UTAH vs. (544) WASHINGTON
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
UTAH is 310-132 UNDER (+164.8 Units) the 1rst half total as a road favorite vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 49.3, OPPONENT 47.3 - (Rating = 4*)

Thursday, 01/25/2024 (551) MINNESOTA vs. (552) BROOKLYN
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
BROOKLYN is 32-11 OVER (+19.9 Units) the 1rst half total when the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BROOKLYN 56.8, OPPONENT 56.1 - (Rating = 3*)

Checking up on you

Philadelphia 76ers (-4, 236.5) at Indiana Pacers

There is no one in the NBA that is stopping Joel Embiid right now, and by extension the 76ers’ offense is an unstoppable machine. In the win on Monday night the 76ers put up 1.357 points per possession on the Spurs. It was the third time in four games that they had averaged at least 1.3 points per possession. Philadelphia is now sixth in non-garbage time offensive efficiency (120.9), and it gets to feast on one of the worst defenses in the league tonight.

Indiana owns the fourth-worst non-garbage time defensive rating in the NBA (120.9). In terms of defensive shooting categories, the Pacers rank no higher than 15th in the areas of the floor that Cleaning The Glass tracks. They are also 29th in opponent free throw rate (24.5 made free throws per 100 field goal attempts). That might be an issue against the team that leads the league in free throw rate (26.1).

However, Philadelphia is not the only one that can have offensive success in this contest, and that is why this is a perfect game to go over the total on.

The 76ers rank fifth in non-garbage time defensive rating, but they are weakest when being forced to defend in transition. Philadelphia is 20th in opponent points added per 100 possessions through transition offense (3.0) and 14th in defensive efficiency off live rebounds (121.1). The Pacers obviously love to run, and even without Haliburton they can be effective on the break.

This is why this game should get over the total of 237.5 which is the current consensus number. Indiana will have no answer for Embiid and this offense, but it should also be able to carry its weight by having success in transition.

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 41-36 SU and 40-36-1 ATS (52.6%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/25: WASHINGTON vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs UTA)

* Over the total was 68-43 (61.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/25: Over the total in MIAMI-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)

1/25: Over the total in WASHINGTON-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 245.5)

* Under the total was 40-36 (52.6%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/25: Under the total in UTAH-WASHINGTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 245.5)