The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3183
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DaKid's bowl pix 12.27
I'm back y'all with a quick hitter for all you junkies who need a pick on a Tuesday before New Years.
I'm going with North Texas +11. I like the over 49 but not nearly as much.
First, we have the rare college football rematch-NT won 35-18 as +17.5 underdog a month ago. Since then, Army has won 2 huge games and is riding all types of momentum.
This just feels like one of those games where everyone will be on Army and might miss a huge story that is going to be one of those eureka moments for us contrarians.
Senior North Texas QB Alec Morris was benched in game 1 for a freshman. Mason Fine got hurt and now you have Alec Morris starting in what is easily the biggest game of his career. He only has 3 starts but this one matters alot to him.
In one start, he put up more yards against So. Miss than anyone but LSU and Kentucky. So he is not terrible. But again, this one is a unique set up for a guy to have the game of his life.
He transferred from Alabama after 2 national championships to NT-the Heart of Saxby bowl is 30 minutes from his childhood home. I can't imagine he will be intimidated by Army's rush, having practiced at Alabama for 2 years and I really feel like he will carve them up and stand tall on 3rd down, frustrating the hell out of Army's D.
And when you get a 5-7 team a bowl because of academics, the coach has a huge rallying cry.
Take the Mean Green for some easy green(I hope!)
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12-27-16 05:20 PM |
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htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3183
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on the next one...
Temple -11
Wake Forest...is simply awful. Unbelievably so. They literally avoided the 5 best teams in the ACC East or Coastal or whatever the hell they call it now.
Their highest output-38 against Delaware. They didn't get pummeled often but they were really bad. They broke 200 yards in passing twice all year-that's like Army/Navy numbers. Which means they aren't coming back once they are down. The contrarian in me says take WF-no way Vegas is making it easy for Temple to go 12-1 ATS this year. While Temple has not been a big favorite this year and I'm wondering why this isn't a -14 or more.
But I have a rule-take the more athletic team with more motivation and Temple will be jacked up to play an ACC team-they played PSU tough and they will be looking to romp today.
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12-27-16 09:20 PM |
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htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3183
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Running a cannabis infrastructure fund doesn't leave much time for handicapping these days my friend...but I thought this would be a great week to show my face.
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12-27-16 09:50 PM |
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htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3183
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Minnesota is an interesting case. Anyone who has played athletics at a high level(I have) knows that what happens off the field can really affect your performance. You might have energy for a quarter but when you get punched in the mouth, do you have the will to stay there and battle? And I'm not sure where Minny will fall here. Their defense is actually much better than I expected when i looked through the numbers. But they did avoid Michigan, Indiana and Ohio St. this year so let's not get crazy just yet.
And with diminished depth on defense, I worry about Minn's defense to stop WSU in the second half after 55 passes.
Give me the over 62.
UNT-W
Temple
Minn over 62
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12-27-16 10:12 PM |
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