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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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NCAA betting trends by seed
• Over the last 25 years, there has been a clear benchmark for when heavily favored #1 seeds struggle to win ATS, and it comes at the 12-point line. In fact, in that span, #1 seeds favored by 12 or more are 23-1 SU but 9-15 ATS (37.5%). (AGAINST CONNECTICUT -14)
• #1 seeds are currently on a 4-12 ATS (25%) skid versus #8 seeds in the second round but are 9-7 ATS versus #9 seeds in that same 10-year window (AGAINST PURDUE -10.5).
• Second-round #2 seeds have felt the upset pressure, going just 14-23-2 ATS (37.8%) in their last 39 games. Those favored by 5 points or less are just 13-19 SU and 10-20-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2002. (AGAINST ARIZONA -9, IOWA ST -6.5, TENNESSEE -6.5, MARQUETTE -3.5)
• It’s been a struggle lately in the second round for the top 3 seeds overall, as here are the current ATS slides they are on: #1 seeds 12-18 ATS, #2 seeds 14-23-1 ATS, #3 seeds 9-17 ATS. (AGAINST ALL TOP 3 SEEDS)
• Seeds #4-#6 have been stellar lately in the second round, with these spread runs entering 2020: #4 seeds 18-11 ATS, #5 seeds 20-9 ATS, #6 seeds 20-10 ATS. Surviving the first-round upset attempt has seemingly propelled these teams to solid round two performances. (ON ALABAMA -6, DUKE -6.5, SAN DIEGO STATE -5, CLEMSON +4.5)
• Second round #10 seeds are on a 4-13 SU but 10-5-2 ATS (66.7%) run since 2011 (ON COLORADO +3.5)
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03-23-24 05:18 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Big Ten
Overall, Big Ten teams and top 6 seeds haven’t meshed well since 2015, as they are 43-31 SU but 29-44-1 ATS (39.7%) in that scenario. (AGAINST ILLINOIS -10, PURDUE -10.5)
Big Ten teams have been relatively strong in the double-digit chalk role in the tournament, 51-5 SU and 31-21-4 ATS (59.6%) since 1998, (ON ILLINOIS -10, PURDUE -10.5)
For as good as Big Ten teams have been in the big favorite role, they have been brutal as underdogs of 5.5 points or more in the tournament, 6-50 SU and 21-35 ATS (37.5%) since 1998. (AGAINST NORTHWESTERN +14)
In tourney games of the second round and later, Big Ten teams are just 16-31 SU and 17-28-2 ATS (37.8%) since 2017. (AGAINST ILLINOIS -10, MICHIGAN STATE +4, NORTHWESTERN +14, PURDUE -10.5)
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03-23-24 05:22 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Pac-12
Pac-12 teams are on an 18-4 ATS (81.8%) run versus Big 12 and Big East teams in NCAA tourney play since 2013. (ON COLORADO +3.5, OREGON +4.5, WASHINGTON STATE +6.5)
Pac-12 teams are on a run of 21-8 ATS (72.4%) in second-round NCAA tournament games. (ON ARIZONA -9, COLORADO +3.5, OREGON +4.5, WASHINGTON STATE +6.5)
Pac-12 teams have performed extremely well as underdogs lately in NCAA tourney games, 38-17 ATS (69.1%) since 2011. (ON COLORADO +3.5, OREGON +4.5, WASHINGTON STATE +6.5)
Double-digit seeded Pac-12 teams in the NCAAs have been hard to knock out, as they are 29-21 SU and 37-13 ATS (74%) since ’09. (ON COLORADO +3.5, OREGON +4.5)
Alternatively, Pac-12 teams in the #7-#9 seeds are on a 9-22 SU and 12-19 ATS (38.7%) skid in the NCAAs. (AGAINST WASHINGTON STATE +6.5)
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03-23-24 05:24 PM |
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