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jkaul
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2005
Posts: 3658

Dog Series Chase (20-1 +19.45 units)

This weekend looks like a couple of opportunities to pad the bankroll.

stl/cub - cards on 4 game loss streak, cubs favored, NO PLAY
atl/nym - atl favored, mets favored game 3 (glavine vs smoltz) NO PLAY
phi/cin - phi 3-7 last 10, reds favored, NO PLAY
hou/mil - hou 8-2 last 10, mil 7-3 last 10, NO PLAY
az/sf - giants favored games 2/3, az 20-36 vs sf last 3 yrs, 9-19 at sf last 3 yrs NO PLAY
pit/lad - pit 3-7 last 10, dodgers favored, NO PLAY
tor/bal - bal 7-3 last 10, orioles favored, NO PLAY
nyy/bos - yankees 3 game win streak, boston 7-3 last 10, NO PLAY
min/kc - twins favored, kc 2-8 last 10 NO PLAY
sea/laa - sea 3 game loss streak, laa 6 game loss streak, NO PLAY

WAS/fla - washington will be dogs for all 3 games, no streaks, last 10 OK, 24-28 vs fla last 3 yrs, 12-13 at fla last 3 yrs.
PLAY ON WASHINGTON

SD/col - padres slight dog for game 1, will be dogs for game 2, but game 3 I am not sure. Maddux (2-1 3.86) vs Hirsh (2-1 3.37). Maddux was favored in an earlier meeting in SD at -165, but Hirsh was only +125 in his next outing at the Dodgers against ace Penny. Typical line movement so far this season has seen 40-50 dollars from one site to another in games with same pitchers facing each other again. So, I will pass on this series based on Maddux will be favored in Sunday's game. NO PLAY

CWS/det - white sox should be dogs for all 3 games, only question mark was game 1 and they are dogs. White Sox are 34-23 over the last 3 yrs vs Detroit including a 16-13 mark at Comerica. No streaks, last 10 games filters apply. PLAY ON WHITE SOX

cle/TB - Devil Rays will be home dogs for all 3 games. D-Rays 10-13 vs Cleveland over the last 3 yrs but are 5-5 at home vs the Tribe. No streaks, last 10 games filters apply. PLAY ON TAMPA BAY

OAK/tex - Rangers favored in game 1, questionable for game 2. Oakland 27-25 vs Texas last 3 yrs, including 15-11 at Texas. Need to wait to see the odds for Saturday before playing this one. Sunday with Gaudin vs Tejeda is also close, but I think Texas will be slightly favored.

Summary
NATIONALS +158 at Marlins - Game 1 (1 unit to win 1.58 units)
WHITE SOX +102 at Tigers - Game 1 (1 unit to win 1.02 units)
DEVIL RAYS +176 vs Indians - Game 1 (1 unit to win 1.76 units)
ATHLETICS +102 at Rangers - Game 1 (1 unit to win 1.02 units)

*Check Oakland's Saturday odds before playing Friday's game.

GLTA

Old Post 04-20-07 04:47 AM
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AgainstThePub23


Registered: Jan 2007
Posts: 75

I have Pads as the favorite in the first game

Old Post 04-20-07 05:32 AM
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undersNdogs
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Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 1046

great work, i will be chasing with you this weekend

Old Post 04-20-07 05:34 AM
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RogieKingsFan


Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 44

JKaul

Sweet Stuff. Can you continue to post games at the beginning of the series I would like to tail you on this.

Also, can you post the original thread, I am interested in understanding your filters for the chase. Thanks

And Awesome work, this is pure A++ stuff.


K

Old Post 04-20-07 05:46 AM
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Strizzles
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Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 2959

Will be on these as well including Philly although they filter out using your criteria I believe they get a win here. Keep an eye on 1st game dog winners as all but one have lost one of the next 2 games and several losing the next game. gl and thanks for the posts; lets get em

Old Post 04-20-07 05:49 AM
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jkaul
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Registered: Jan 2005
Posts: 3658

strizzles - I have been watching for the dog sweep and have noticed that it has only happened the one time so far, good luck with chasing the fav after a game 1 loss. Keep me posted on that.

Old Post 04-20-07 05:53 AM
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jkaul
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Registered: Jan 2005
Posts: 3658

soccer flip

http://forums.statfox.com/forum/showthread.php?threadid=26528&highlight=underdog+master

This is the original post

Old Post 04-20-07 05:55 AM
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Strizzles
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Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 2959

I have played all of the dog series you have posted thus far except one that I missed out on. I play dogs primarily or faves less than 150. Very rarely do I play larger faves just due to the fact I hate to lay the juice if a loss does occur so this dog chase system caught my attention. I have chased the fav on 3 or 4 of these series where dog won game one. The games I have chased the fav were not very high juice wise so it has worked out nicely and have not had to lay high juice. I will not chase a fav after a dog win if they are going to be laying high juice more than likely. The system you have posted has been time tested and I like the filters as well to aid in making the chase a profitable one. gl and thanks for the posts once again

Old Post 04-20-07 06:11 AM
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austintx05


Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 188

How does this work at the beginning of the season? Do you wait for every team to play 10 games?

Thanks

Old Post 04-20-07 06:51 AM
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tmc771
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Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 3527

will tail on all these thanks for the hard work and thorough explanations!

Old Post 04-20-07 07:17 AM
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PhilliePhan


Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 297

Random question...

...about the system.

Team A fits the system but has dropped 2 in row. Lose game 1. Now dropped 3 in row. BUT we keep playing because they fit it going into the series, right?

Old Post 04-20-07 07:45 AM
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Dark Horse
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Registered: May 2005
Posts: 3765

Once a dog meets the qualifications for the series, it's in for the series.

Old Post 04-20-07 09:47 AM
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sunnyisle
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Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 547

Thanks

for the work you put in to post these plays

Old Post 04-20-07 02:20 PM
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jkaul
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Registered: Jan 2005
Posts: 3658

austin

At the beginning of the season, the only filters that I apply are the head to head performance filters over the last 3 yrs. Once a team has played 3 games, the streaks can come into play and once a team has played 10 games, the last 10 filter can be applied.

Old Post 04-20-07 04:28 PM
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austintx05


Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 188

Easy enough. Thanks.

Old Post 04-20-07 05:32 PM
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Curdawg
StatFox Legend

Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 7463

jkaul

your a winner SU and ATS....best of luck and will follow..thanks




Always bet AP's number 11 who will be trying hard to get into Top 10...

Old Post 04-20-07 05:48 PM
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jkaul
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Registered: Jan 2005
Posts: 3658

looks like all plays are a go

Texas opened -110 for tomorrow, so it looks like Oakland will be a play.

Summary (current lines)
NATIONALS +145 at Marlins - Game 1 (1 unit to win 1.45 units)
WHITE SOX +100 at Tigers - Game 1 (1 unit to win 1.00 units)
DEVIL RAYS +162 vs Indians - Game 1 (1 unit to win 1.62 units)
ATHLETICS +104 at Rangers - Game 1 (1 unit to win 1.04 units)

GLTA

Old Post 04-20-07 08:00 PM
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AngryBeavers
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Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 1555

Thanks for posting

Look forward to playing these this weekend.

Old Post 04-20-07 08:38 PM
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austintx05


Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 188

on em as well...good luck to us!

Old Post 04-20-07 10:18 PM
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dr.huxtable


Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 373

Looking good.. Thanks Jkaul =)

Old Post 04-20-07 10:59 PM
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