1 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (-3, 38.5) at New England Patriots

The Seahawks (1-0) just outlasted the Broncos 26-20 in their season opener but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Patriots (1-0) just shocked the Bengals 16-10, winning outright as 8-point road dogs. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is leaning toward Seattle, with 58% of spread bets laying the short chalk with the road favorite. Throughout the week, we’ve seen the Seahawks creep up from -3 to -3.5. However, over the past 24-hours or so we’ve seen sharp buyback on New England plus the hook, dropping most shops back down from Patriots +3.5 to +3. Essentially, all late movement is breaking back down toward the contrarian home dog Pats. Week 2 home dogs getting 3.5-points or less are 14-6 ATS (70%) with a 30% ROI since 2018. New England has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (38.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number. The Seahawks are in a “fade” schedule spot, as they are a West Coast team going East for an early 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Sharps have also targeted the under, dropping the total from 41 to 38.5. The under is receiving 56% of bets but 74% of dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected smart money on a lower scoring game.

1 p.m. ET: New York Jets (-4, 41) at Tennessee Titans

The Jets (0-1) just got rolled by the 49ers 32-19 on Monday Night Football, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Titans (0-1) lost their season opener to the Bears 24-17, failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with New York listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back the Jets in a bounce-back spot. However, despite receiving 76% of spread bets we’ve seen New York remain stagnant at -4. At times throughout the week we’ve even seen the Jets fall to -3.5. This line has never risen to Jets -4.5 despite receiving overwhelming public support. This indicates a sharp line freeze on the Titans, with pros buying low on Tennessee plus the points as an unpopular home dog. Week 2 home dogs getting 4-points or less are 15-6 ATS (71%) with a 33% ROI since 2018. Conference home dogs getting 4-points or less are 136-105 ATS (56%) with a 9% ROI since 2018. The Titans also have correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (41), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number. Alex Eck, the lead ref, is 24-19 ATS (56%) to the home team historically. The Titans enjoy a rest vs tired advantage, as Tennessee played on Sunday while the Jets played on Monday and now must travel on a short week.

1 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 46.5) at Minnesota Vikings

The 49ers (1-0) just brushed aside the Jets 32-19 in their season opener, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Vikings (1-0) just crushed the Giants 28-6, easily covering as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for the mighty 49ers. However, despite receiving 86% of spread bets we’ve seen San Francisco fall from -6.5 to -4.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Vikings, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Minnesota is only receiving 14% of spread bets, making them one of the top contrarian plays of the week. Week 2 home dogs getting 4.5-points or less are 17-6 ATS (74%) with a 37% ROI since 2018. Those looking to follow the sharp Vikings move but also gain some wiggle room could instead elect to play Minnesota in a Wong Teaser (+4.5 to +10.5), which passes through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7. Minnesota enjoys a rest vs tired advantage, as the Vikings played on Sunday while the 49ers played on Monday and now must travel on a short week. Brad Allen, the lead ref, is 84-70 ATS (55%) to the home team historically.

4:25 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 36.5) at Denver Broncos

The Steelers (1-0) just took down the Falcons 18-10, winning outright as 4-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Broncos (0-1) just fell to the Seahawks 26-20 but managed to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the short chalk with the Steelers. However, despite receiving 74% of spread bets we’ve seen Pittsburgh fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Broncos, as the line is moving in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Denver is only receiving 26% of spread bets but 37% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Those looking to follow the sharp Broncos line move but looking to add some additional security could also took at teasing Denver up from +2.5 to +8.5, which passes through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7 and offers added value in a low total game. Conference home dogs +4 or less are 136-105 ATS (56%) with a 9% ROI since 2018. Week 2 home dogs coming off a loss playing a team coming off a win are 21-12 ATS (64%) with a 24% ROI since 2010. Wiseguys are also expecting a lower scoring game, as the total has plummeted from 40.5 to 36.5. The under is receiving 50% of bets but 64% of dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy.