MLB faves 10-5 w/ upsets by BOS +170 at NYY, CHW +152 vs. OAK, MIL +135 at AZ, CIN +133 at MIN & COL +129 vs. CHC; home teams 8-7; Overs 8-6-1 w/ push in CHC-COL (11); faves 1,218-922 w/ 46 PK; home teams 1,140-1,039 w/ 7 neutrals; Overs 1,057-1,042-85 w/ 2 N/A

Zac Gallen is listed for Over/Under 6.5 strikeouts versus the Milwaukee Brewers

Gallen has gone Over this total in four consecutive games against some fairly easy targets for strikeouts, such as Boston and San Francisco. However, just before that, the Arizona right-hander was Under in nine consecutive outings.

Milwaukee could prove to be a slightly more difficult task having posted the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball versus right-handers in the last 14 days and the sixth-lowest chase rate.

In addition, only two of the last 17 right-handed starters to face the Brewers have gone Over 6.5 strikeouts. Is that number cherry-picked? Yes. But it still proves my point.

The bottom line is that Gallen’s strikeout prop seems a bit high. At current pricing, the Under seems like a solid value.

Trend: Favorites are 15-4 (78.9%, +8.25 units) in the last 19 games in the BAL-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 43.4%
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-118 at DET)

Trend: SEA is 7-0 (+7.15 units) vs. Texas with starter George Kirby in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-162 vs. TEX)

(951) MIAMI (55-94) at (952) WASHINGTON (67-81)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 5-12 (-9.77 units) in home games vs teams with losing records in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-185 vs MIA)

(953) NEW YORK-NL (81-67) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (89-59)
Trend: PHI is 9-17 (-11.58 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-130 vs NYM)

(955) LOS ANGELES-NL (87-61) at (956) ATLANTA (81-67)
Trend: Charlie Morton is 1-7 (-6.60 units) in the last six seasons against LA Dodgers
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-112 vs LAD)

(965) BOSTON (75-74) at (966) NEW YORK-AL (86-63)
Trend: BOS is 6-20 (-16.32 units) in the months of August/September by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+145 at NYY)

(969) OAKLAND (65-84) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (34-115)
Trend: OAK is 9-21 (-8.10 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last three years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (-180 at CWS)

(973) TEXAS (71-78) at (974) SEATTLE (76-73)
Trend: SEA is 7-0 (+7.15 units) vs. Texas with starter George Kirby in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-162 vs TEX)