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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The Atlanta Braves (79-66) will take on the Washington Nationals (64-80) in an NL East matchup on Wednesday.
Atlanta dominated game one of this two-game set, winning 12-0.
The Braves are eight games out of the NL East lead but are tied with the Mets for the final remaining wild-card spot in the National League.
The Mets are 8-2 in their last five games and have been playing great ball, so Atlanta will need to keep winning to have a chance of playing in October.
Washington is just playing for pride at this point. The Nationals are 22.5 games out of the NL East lead and 14.5 games out of a wild-card spot. There were some signs of promise for this team in 2024, but overall, this year has been disappointing.
Max Fried will take the mound for Atlanta on Wednesday. The 30-year-old lefty has a 3.35 ERA on the season with a 3.72 xERA and a 3.45 xFIP over 147 2/3 innings. Among qualified pitchers, Freid ranks in the 48th percentile in strikeout rate and 42nd percentile in walk rate.
However, Fried excels at forcing weak ground-ball contact, ranking above the 80th percentile of pitchers in ground-ball rate (59%), hard-hit rate allowed, barrel rate allowed and average exit velocity allowed.
Atlanta ranks 18th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA this year. The Braves also rank 12th in SLG, 20th in OBP, and seventh in ISO, as they hit for quite a bit of power. The Braves rank 20th in walk rate and have the eighth-highest strikeout rate, as they could use some work on their plate discipline.
After seeing where their power numbers are concerning their overall numbers, it should be no surprise that Atlanta hits the ball hard. The Braves rank first in hard-hit rate, second in barrel rate and second in average exit velocity.
Their offense has faded a bit down the stretch, as they rank 21st in wRC+ over the last 30 days. They are still in the top ten in most Statcast metrics, but their power has trailed off, and they are no longer at the top of these leaderboards.
Jake Irvin will be the Nationals’ starter on Wednesday. In his second season in the big leagues, Irvin has pitched 166 innings with a 4.28 ERA, 4.28 xERA, and a 3.99 xFIP. Irvin has struck out 140 batters this season, ranking in the 32nd percentile in strikeout rate and 29th percentile in whiff rate.
Irvin has above-average control, posting a walk rate in the 76th percentile. He also generates ground balls at a slightly above-average rate, ranking in the 60th percentile.
One area where Irvin has had issues is allowing a moderate amount of quality contact. He ranks in the 50th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed but in the 31st percentile in barrel rate allowed.
The Nationals rank 23rd in wRC+ this season with a mark of 94, meaning they are 6% worse than the league average. Washington also ranks 22nd in wOBA, 23rd in SLG, and 28th in ISO.
Washington doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard, ranking 27th in hard-hit rate, 30th in barrel rate, and 27th in average exit velocity. The Nationals also rank 29th in launch angle and have the third-highest ground-ball rate, which won’t be good for today’s matchup against Max Fried.
The Nationals have not hit left-handers well, ranking 25th in the league in wRC+ (88). They also rank 26th in SLG and 24th in wOBA against the side while still generating an extraordinarily high 48.6% ground ball rate against lefties.
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09-11-24 10:30 PM |
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