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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Arizona State Sun Devils (-1.5, 59.5) at Texas State Bobcats
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Texas State joined FBS in 2012 and just made their first bowl game appearance last season. In fact, it was their first winning season and first season with more than four wins. Kinne is very likely to level up to a bigger job after this season, so every win is a feather in his cap and one for the program as well.
Arizona State has fallen on some pretty hard times. Second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham led a 3-9 season last year, which means that the Sun Devils have back-to-back three-win campaigns. Recruiting violations under former head coach Herm Edwards took away some wins from the program ledger and the 10-win Todd Graham seasons in 2013 and 2014 feel like an eternity ago.
So, that sets the stage for the broader picture in this game, but this specific matchup is a very intriguing one. Arizona State pummeled Wyoming in the opener and got 262 rushing yards from Cam Skattebo for a win over Mississippi State in Week 2. After having 33 carries, the quick turnaround might be a tough one for the team’s leading rusher and best playmaker.
QB Sam Leavitt was strong against Wyoming, going 14-of-22 for 258 yards and two touchdowns with some big plays. He was less effective against Mississippi State, finishing 10-of-20 for 69 yards. He wasn’t asked to do much, but didn’t really excel with what he was asked to do. Will the Sun Devils find the same rushing success against Texas State or will Leavitt’s passing game be in the crosshairs?
The Bobcats defense definitely improved last season compared to the pre-Kinne era. But, this is still an offense-first type of club. James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud is 39-of-57 for 547 yards with a 5/2 TD/INT ratio. He’s completed 68% of his tosses against Lamar and UTSA. This is definitely a step up in class against ASU, so we’ll see how he fares in this one.
Texas State has 6.47 yards per play thus far after averaging 6.21 last season. Arizona State was 122nd in the nation last year with 4.75 YPP, but the early returns have been good to this point with over six yards per play. Dillingham has historically been an offensive guy and maybe we’re seeing the impact of a recruiting and portal cycle.
This is one of the biggest games in Texas State recent history with a Power Four team at home in a standalone spotlight and I think they show up in a big way.
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09-10-24 10:02 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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UNLV @ Kansas (-7)
UNLV (2-0)
Rebels outgained Houston 308-259 in 27-7 (+3.5) road win
UNLV has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 79 starts returning on offensive line.
Senior QB Sluka started 37 games at I-AA Holy Cross.
Last year was UNLV’s first bowl game since 2013.
In his career, Odom is 7-7 ATS as a road dog, 4-0 at UNLV.
Last 3+ years, Rebels are 12-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2018, UNLV is 17-5 ATS in non-league games.
Kansas (1-1)
Kansas (-5.5) was minus-3 in TO’s, lost 23-17 at Illinois LW.
Jayhawks have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Kansas has 130 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Daniels has 20 career starts.
In his career, Leipold is 8-9 ATS as road favorite, 1-2 at Kansas.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 6-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Leipold is 16-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 2+ years, Kansas is 7-2 ATS in non-league games.
Kansas (-11) beat UNLV 49-36 in a bowl game last year.
That was teams’ first meeting since 2003.
Mountain West teams are 7-2 ATS in last nine games vs Big X opponents.
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09-13-24 08:16 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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In a rematch of last season’s Guaranteed Rate Bowl, Kansas and UNLV meet on Friday night at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City.
The Jayhawks fell out of the Top 25 on Monday after getting upset on the road at Illinois in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Rebels have had an impressive start to the campaign, securing blowout wins over Houston and Utah Tech.
Not many coaches have a debut season with their new program quite like Barry Odom did with UNLV last year. He guided the school to its first bowl game since 2013 and to nine wins for the first time since 1984.
The 2023 Mountain West Conference Coach of the Year matched his defensive expertise with a young, up-and-coming offensive coordinator, Brennan Marion, to bring an exciting style to Las Vegas.
However, there was a big question coming into this season. How were the Rebels going to replace quarterback Jayden Maiava?
Odom hit the transfer portal to bring in two quality signal callers from the FCS level — Matthew Sluka (Holy Cross) and Hajj-Malik Williams (Campbell). Sluka earned the start in both victories and showed his ability both as a passer and with his legs.
If his fine play continues, this could be another special season at UNLV.
When coach Lance Leipold was hired, he knew it was going to take time to build Kansas into a respectable football program. However, he has everyone believing the Jayhawks can be more than a basketball school.
KU is fresh off its first winning season since 2007, and Leipold has led the program to its first back-to-back bowl trips since the 2006-07 teams.
The key to the success has been the offense, which has been led by great quarterback play. Whether that has been Jalon Daniels or Jason Bean, both have had success under Leipold.
The pressure is now all on Daniels after Bean departed in the offseason. He hasn't had great injury luck over the past two seasons, but there is no doubting his talent in Leipold’s offense.
In the bowl game, the total closed at 65 points. I don’t see what has changed enough to cause this total to be over a full touchdown lower.
If we start with the Jayhawks, they bring back a veteran roster, but their main losses are along the defensive line. Five players who started last year departed, leaving a big hole for a team that already struggled to stop the run.
Kansas ranked last among Power 4 programs in defensive stuff rate. This is the same squad that ranked in the bottom 20 of P4 teams in line yards, rush success and rush explosiveness on defense.
This will be an area UNLV looks to attack, especially as the Rebels rank 20th in the country in yards per carry (6.29).
I’m also not buying the Mountain West squad’s improvement on defense after playing Houston and Utah Tech. Against the better teams in the MWC in 2023, UNLV allowed 31 points at Fresno State, 37 to San Jose State and 44 to Boise State.
Away from home last season, the Rebels’ games would have gone over this same total in five of seven. Meanwhile, only two Kansas home games finished with fewer than 57.5 points in 2023.
You do want to ensure you catch this before the key number of 59, which had the fourth-highest hit rate from Collin Wilson’s research last summer.
This was a shootout in the bowl game and I expect that to happen again.
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09-13-24 08:18 AM |
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