Taylor Fritz was able to outlast Frances Tiafoe in a tight five-set match in the semifinals, but world No. 1 Jannik Sinner awaits in the US Open final. This is the furthest Fritz has ever been in a Grand Slam, and the American is playing some of the best tennis of his life. If he keeps it up, he’ll like his chances of keeping things competitive against the Italian. However, nerves could easily come into play here, and beating Sinner on a hard court is one of the most difficult tasks in tennis right now. Sinner is 34-2 on this surface in 2024, and he won his maiden Grand Slam title in January’s Australian Open. With all of that in mind, this battle should be extremely interesting at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Taylor Fritz vs. Jannik Sinner Odds


Moneyline: Sinner -330, Fritz +250

Spread: Sinner -4.5 Games (-143), Fritz +4.5 Games (+100)

Total: Over 38.5 Games (-125), Under 38.5 Games (-111)

Fritz has been absolutely awesome since arriving in New York. The American has earned wins over Matteo Berrettini, Casper Ruud, Alexander Zverev and Frances Tiafoe. That most recent battle with Big Foe ended up being a 4-6, 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 victory, helping me miraculously cover a 3.5-game spread in the decider. That was my biggest individual play of the season, so I’m thrilled the California native was able to pull it out. However, Fritz is now playing the best hard-court player in tennis, and he’s going to need to play a flawless match in order to even keep this thing close. So, while I do think Fritz is capable of getting on the board, I like Sinner to cover a 1.5-set spread in the final.

It’s just a little hard to figure out what Fritz will be able to do to give himself an edge against Sinner. Fritz’s game is based around a big serve and powerful strokes from the baseline. But Sinner is a better server and a much better baseliner. This season, Sinner is first in the world in hold percentage, as the Italian is holding at a 92.0% rate in 2024. Fritz’s number is impressive, but it’s a little further down at 88.3%. But it’s the returning that really separates these two. Sinner’s 26.5% break percentage in 2024 is a lot higher than Fritz’s 20.7%. When you combine that with Sinner’s advantages on the forehand and backhand wings, as well as in the court coverage department, you’d have to think that the Italian will find his way here.

All throughout this tournament, we have watched players try to match Sinner’s power from the baseline. The problem is that it’s effortless for the Italian to pummel the ball. When his opponents try to do it, they generally open themselves up to high unforced error counts.

It should help Fritz that he’ll have a clear home-court advantage in this match. The crowd is going to be going absolutely insane as it tries to get an American across the finish line. No American man has won a major since Andy Roddick won the US Open in 2003. But even if Sinner does struggle with his nerves a bit, he’ll eventually settle in and his supreme talent will win out. We actually saw it in Sinner’s match against Tommy Paul, as he went down a double-break in the first set. Sinner looked like he was on his way to a shaky match, but he quickly got himself back in it and won the opening set. He then won the match in straights.

Sinner also happens to beat Fritz in their most recent encounter, earning a 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 win over the American at Indian Wells in 2024. That was a little before Sinner truly broke out and became one of the top players in the world, and it was also a match played at Fritz’s favorite venue — where he won his only Masters 1000 title. If Fritz couldn’t get the job done on a slower court, which neutralizes Sinner’s power, he’s unlikely to do it here.

All in all, it’s hard to blame anybody for wanting to jump on Fritz as a spread or moneyline play. This is the last tournament of the year that most bettors will have action on, so grabbing an American and rooting for the underdog could be the fun move.