|
timande
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 1876
|
I liked Tenn before, Like even better now, took a stab with them +4
|
09-08-24 01:35 AM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Minnesota Vikings: Josh Oliver +2500, Justin Jefferson +650, (Jordan Addison +1300)*
The Vikings were around 60% for the first TD of the game and relied on the pass to get them there. Addison led the team with four first team TDs, while TJ Hockenson, Jefferson, and Oliver had two each. With Addison very doubtful to play this week with an ankle injury, that increases the likelihood that Jefferson gets more red-zone targets.
Oliver had a couple, including one in Week 3 last season. The first seven first team TDs of the year for the Vikings came from receivers or tight ends. Even though it’s Sam Darnold and not Kirk Cousins, O’Connell is still a pass-first kind of guy.
If Addison looks like he’s going to play, I don’t think we’ll get 13/1, but wait it out and see where the injury report takes him.
This is also a fade of the Giants, who only scored the first TD in 4/17 games last year and zero of the first six games.
|
|
09-08-24 01:42 PM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Arizona at Buffalo
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Surely, there will be a lot of people willing to fade the Cardinals here and, more so, back the Bills laying the points and in Survivor Pools. Still, how many times can a team keep coming up short of its overall goals each season and continue coming back with the same fight? That will be a big question for the Bills this year as they once again try to bounce back from postseason disappointment.
For 2024, the Bills have seen the departure of several key players, including starting wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Those roles will, of course, be filled, but will the new talent have the same sync with QB Josh Allen? This team was one of four last year that enjoyed a positive turnover differential yet finished less than .500 against the spread. This is typically a sign of a team that declines the next year. They also won six games by 8 points or fewer, another potentially negative sign of things turning quickly.
Concerning the point spread, which has sat at 6.5 points for most of the offseason, Laying big points is rarely a good idea in a Week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5-points or more might be just 10-30-1 SU, but they are 27-13-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2013. In addition, NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 52-21-5 ATS since 2004. The Cardinals play with a clean slate and are excited to have QB Kyler Murray healthy and WR Marvin Harrison looks poised for stardom.
|
|
09-08-24 03:38 PM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Houston at Indianapolis
Sunday, 1:00 pm. ET (CBS)
Boy, the changes for these two teams in the offseason must have been significant. When they last met in Week 18 in January to decide the AFC South title, the Colts opened as 1-point home favorites. The Texans won that game. Here we are eight months later, with a line favoring them by 3 points. That is noteworthy at this time of the year, as divisional home underdogs are 18-9-2 SU and 23-6 ATS (79.3%) in Week 1 since 2009.
There are also two nice DK betting splits systems that indicate the bettors’ love for the Texans is misguided. First, in NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors. Second, since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). This is a very public play after Houston’s success last year. I hate public plays.
|
|
09-08-24 03:54 PM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Games this week: CAR-NO(-4), NE-CIN(-7.5), TEN-CHI(-4), DEN-SEA(-6)
– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 152-167-8 ATS (47.6%). Road/Neutral games – 172-149-7 ATS (55.3%).
System Matches: PLAY ROAD TEAMS– CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE
FADE HOME TEAMS– SEATTLE
– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 29-118 SU (19.7%) and 71-74-2 ATS (49%) when catching 7 points or more since 2013.
System Match: FADE – NEW ENGLAND
– Ironically, it’s in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+6.5 to -6.5 lines) where rookie head coaches enjoy better point spread success rates. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 235-230-2 SU and 237-219-11 ATS (52%).
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, SEATTLE
– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2013: Divisional games 112-121-6 ATS (48.1%), Conference games 122-116-4 ATS (51.3%), Non-conference games 90-78-5 ATS (53.5%). These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Matches: PLAY – NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, SEATTLE
FADE DIVISIONAL GAME – CAROLINA
– Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #1-#4 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 81-75-6 ATS, good for 51.9%. In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 152-159-9 ATS (48.9%). To close the season in games #13-#17, the record has been 91-82-2 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, SEATTLE, NEW ENGLAND
|
|
09-08-24 04:48 PM |
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
