NRFI -132 (Play to -140)

Starting Pitchers: Clarke Schmidt vs. Javier Assad

I can't tell you the last time I took a Yankees NRFI, but my model likes it today.

Despite the Yankees offensive strength, this game has a low total of over/under 7, largely due to fairly extreme pitching weather.

The other reason my model likes this one is the extreme splits of both pitchers. Clarke Schmidt has a 1.44 first time through the order ERA, while Javer Assad is at 2.70.

All things considered, that makes for a decent projection edge even at the steep price.

YRFI +105 (Play to -105)

Starting Pitchers: Bailey Ober vs. Alec Marsh

This game features an 8-run total, which is supported by Kauffman Stadium being a top-three scoring ballpark in baseball.

On top of that, Alec Marsh features an ERA with underlying numbers in the upper-fours, while Bailey Ober's ERA is a mediocre 3.95.

Neither pitcher is especially strong early in games either, which makes this one worth taking at a pick'em price even without powerhouse offenses on either side.

NRFI -135 (Play to -145)

Starting Pitchers: Logan Webb vs. Dylan Cease

This is another game with a low 7-run total, and also features slightly worse offenses than Cubs-Yankees.

The NRFI is a similar price, but projecting even better. That's due to a combination of worse/less top-heavy lineups, and even better pitching.

Both Logan Webb and Dylan Cease have first time through the order xFIP marks in the mid-twos, plus strong numbers overall. This one is widely available at -135.