Aryna Sabalenka has dominated hard-court tennis for the last 12 months, and she’ll now be looking to win her first US Open title. Sabalenka just beat Emma Navarro in an exciting semi-final match in Arthur Ashe Stadium, but she’ll now have to take on a red-hot Jessica Pegula in the final. Pegula is coming off wins over Iga Swiatek and Karolina Muchova, and the American is easily playing the best tennis of her career. Will Pegula’s recent form, combined with home-court advantage, be enough for her to upset Sabalenka?

Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds


Moneyline: Sabalenka -330, Pegula +250

Spread: Sabalenka -4.5 Games (+100), Pegula +4.5 Games (-125)

Total: Over 21.5 Games (-105), Under 21.5 Games (-125)

Sabalenka recently earned a straight-set win over Pegula in the final in Cincinnati, but the American had just won a 1000-level event in Toronto the week prior. She also had to play two grueling three-set matches in the quarterfinals and semifinals in Cincinnati. So, it’s very likely that the American was a little fatigued. But with Pegula having had a full day of rest in between her matches at the US Open, she should be fresh and ready to go for this one. She’s also playing even better than she was in Toronto and Cincinnati, with her straight-set win over Swiatek telling you everything you need to know about her form.

Sabalenka has also struggled with the crowd in Flushing Meadows. Last year, she fell apart in her match against Coco Gauff in the final. Gauff just had to focus on putting the ball in play, and Sabalenka did the rest in making sure her opponent lifted the trophy. The scary thing about that is that Sabalenka had also played extremely poorly against Madison Keys in the match before. However, Keys was going through it mentally as well, and Sabalenka was ultimately able to outlast her.

Those struggles with Americans weren’t just limited to last year either. Sabalenka nearly collapsed in her semi-final match against Navarro, but she was able to pull it together and win a second-set tiebreaker after having attempted to serve for the match at 5-3. But after the match, Sabalenka noted in her post-match interview that this crowd does occasionally get to her. She did say that she thinks she has passed the test and knows how to overcome it. But we’ll just have to see about that when she takes on a player that is playing as well as Pegula.

Pegula has done a lot of damage in this tournament by playing attacking tennis, and she’s going to try that against Sabalenka here. But she’s also very capable of shifting to a more defensive strategy, which is what won her the match against Muchova in the last round. She sensed her opponent was starting to struggle, so she did a little more to force some errors out of her. Pegula will probably come to this match with the same exact strategy. If Sabalenka starts to melt down, Pegula isn’t going to stand in her way.

This also feels like a match in which Pegula will be free of nerves. While it is her first final, she also had never been to the semifinals of a major before beating Swiatek. In that match, Pegula was a big underdog. That allowed her to come out and play with nothing to lose. This match is very similar. Nobody is expecting Pegula to win, so all of the pressure is on Sabalenka.

There’s just a lot working in Pegula’s favor here, with another thing being that it’s very difficult to beat the same player twice in a span of a few weeks. Considering all of it, I’d be surprised if Pegula loses in straight sets. And I genuinely believe she has a good shot at winning.