College Football Week 2 total betting at BetMGM

Most bet OVERs

1. Colorado-Nebraska 56.5
2. Texas-Michigan 42.5
3. Arkansas-Oklahoma State 62.5

Most bet UNDERs

1. Iowa State-Iowa 35
2. Georgia Tech-Syracuse 60.5
3. Kansas State-Tulane 47.5

Popular (+60% of bets) College Football Week 2 plays at BetMGM

88% on Ole Miss -42.5
83% on Mizzou -34.5
83% on Louisville -28.5
78% on N. Illinois +28
74% on Tenn -10
70% on Alabama -31
66% on Iowa -3
65% on K-State -9.5

College Football Week 2 betting at BetMGM

Most bet games
1. Texas-Michigan
2. Tennessee-NC State
3. Colorado-Nebraska

Most bet teams
1. Texas -7.5
2. Tennessee -10
3. Iowa -3

Most bet teams $
1. Texas -7.5
2. Alabama -31
3. Tennessee -10

Kansas State (-10.5) @ Tulane
Kansas State (1-0)
Last three years, K-State was 8-5/10-4/9-4 SU.
Wildcats have 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Wildcats have 73 returning starts on OL, only 36 at I-A level.
LY’s QB bolted to Ohio State; soph QB started one game LY.

Since 2016, K-State is 4-7 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Klieman, Wildcats are 20-11 ATS as a favorite.
Since 2018, K-State is 18-9 ATS in non-league games.
Last week, Wildcats beat up on a I-AA team, 41-6.

Tulane (1-0)
Last two years, Tulane was 12-2/11-3 SU.
Green Wave has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Green Wave has 143 returning starts on offensive line.
Redshirt frosh QB Mensah threw for 206 yards LW.

Last four years, Tulane is 9-6-1 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2016, Green Wave is 22-14 ATS in non-league games.
New coach Sumrall was 6-1 ATS as an underdog at Troy.
Last week, Tulane beat up on a I-AA team, 52-0.

Tulane (+14) upset K-State 14-10 in Manhattan, two years ago.
AAC teams are 12-7 ATS in last 19 games vs Big X opponents.

Texas (-7.5) @ Michigan
Texas (1-0)
Texas was 12-2 LY, after going 13-12 previous two years.
Longhorns have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Longhorns have 123 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Ewers has 22 career starts (22 TDs, 6 INTs LY).

Under Sarkisian, Texas is 5-5 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 6-5 ATS in non-league games.
Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in last seven true road games.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 12-12 ATS coming off a win.

Michigan (1-0)
Last three years, Michigan was 40-3 SU, 26-14-3 ATS.
Wolverines have 2 starters back on offense, 5 on defense, a new head coach.
New defensive coordinator Martindale has a significant NFL resume.
Michigan has 53 returning starts on offensive line (none at Michigan).
Walk-on junior QB Warren was 15-25/118 passing last week

Last three years, Michigan was 3-0 ATS as an underdog.
Wolverines beat Fresno State 30-10 LW, but gained only 269 yards.
Michigan is 10-16 ATS in its last 26 non-conference games.
Last three years, Michigan is 21-13-3 ATS coming off a win.

These teams haven’t met since ’05 Rose Bowl (Texas 38-37).

Arkansas @ Oklahoma State (-7.5)
Arkansas (1-0)
Arkansas was 4-8 LY, their fifth losing season in seven years.
Razorbacks have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Razorbacks have 67 returning starts on the offensive line;
Junior QB Green started 22 games at Boise State.

Under Pittman, Arkansas is 16-7 ATS as an underdog.
Arkansas is 9-3 ATS in last 12 games as a road underdog.
Last five years, Arkansas is 8-10 ATS in non-SEC games.
Last week, Arkansas beat up on a I-AA stiff, 70-0.

Oklahoma State (1-0)
OSU was 10-4 last year, their 18th consecutive winning year.
Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Cowboys have 214 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Bowman is in his 7th college season (13 starts LY)

LW, OSU outgained a I-AA team 394-388 in a 44-20 win.
Under Gundy, OSU is 51-36-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2016, Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in non-SEC games.
Cowboys are 18-9 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.

These teams haven’t met since 1980.
Last four years, Big X teams are 10-3 ATS vs SEC opponents.

South Carolina vs Kentucky (-10)
South Carolina (1-0)
Gamecocks beat Old Dominion 23-19 LW (were outgained 305-288)
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Gamecocks have 118 returning starts on the offensive line.
Freshman QB Sellers threw four passes in three games LY.

Since 2019, Gamecocks are 7-11 ATS coming as a road underdog.
Last four years, Carolina is 15-19 ATS in SEC games.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 9-10 ATS coming off a win.
South Carolina completed only 10-23 passes in last week’s home win.

Kentucky (1-0)
Kentucky had winning seasons the last 3 years, and 7 of last 8 years.
Wildcats have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Wildcats have 156 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Vandagriff was a backup at Georgia.

Last five years, Kentucky is 22-12 ATS in home games.
Kentucky is 13-11 ATS in last 24 SEC games.
Last three years, Wildcats are 14-9 ATS coming off a win.
Last week, Kentucky pounded Southern Miss, 31-0.

South Carolina beat Kentucky last two years, 17-14/24-14
Gamecocks are 1-5-1 ATS in last seven visits to Lexington.
Under is 8-1 in last nine meetings.

Iowa State @ Iowa (-2.5)
Iowa State (1-0)
ISU was 7-6 LY, their sixth winning season in seven years.
Cyclones have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Cyclones have 90 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Becht started 13 games last season.

Under Campbell, ISU is 24-14-2 ATS as an underdog.
Cyclones are 8-13 ATS in last 21 non-conference games.
Last three years, ISU is 5-13 ATS coming off a win.
Cyclones beat a I-AA team 21-3 last week.

Iowa (1-0)
Last nine years, Iowa is 81-34 SU (42-30-2 ATS since 2018).
Hawkeyes have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Hawkeyes have 154 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB McNamara has 21 career starts.
Iowa’s new OC was head coach at Western Michigan (2017-22).

Since 2018, Hawkeyes are 18-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Ferentz is 55-46-1 ATS in non-league games.
Since 2015, Iowa is 44-30-2 ATS coming off a win.
Hawkeyes beat a I-AA team 40-0 last week.

Iowa won seven of last eight games in this rivalry.
Cyclones are 9-3 ATS in last dozen visits to Iowa City.
Under is 17-2 in last 19 series games.
Big 18 teams are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games vs Big X opponents.

Michigan State @ Maryland (-8.5)
Michigan State (1-0)
Last two years, Spartans went 5-7/4-8, then fired the coach.
New coach Smith comes from Oregon State, his alma mater.
MSU has 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Spartans have 31 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Chiles was a sub at Oregon State LY, playing every third series.

Last three years, MSU is 6-5-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Last two years, Spartans are 6-10-2 ATS in league games.
Spartans beat FAU 16-10 LW, gaining only 293 yards (114 PY).
Last two years, Michigan State is 3-6 ATS coming off a win

Maryland (1-0)
Terps have had three straight winning years (7-6/8-5/8-5).
Maryland has 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Terps have 21 returning starts on OL.
Soph QB Morris started six games at NC State.

Since 2018, Maryland is 13-9 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2016, Maryland is 25-43 ATS in league games.
Last two years, Terms are 9-5 ATS coming off a win.
Terps pounded UConn 50-7 LW, gaining 629 yards.

Last two years, Maryland beat Spartans, 31-9/27-13
Teams split their last four meetings at Maryland.
Last nine series games stayed under the total.

Virginia @ Wake Forest (-2)
Virginia (1-0)
Last two years, Virginia was 3-7/3-9 SU, 12-10 ATS.
Cavaliers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Cavaliers have 81 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Colandrea started six games last year.

Under Elliott, Virginia is 11-5 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2015, Virginia is 24-16 ATS as a road underdog.
Last four years, Cavaliers are 21-11 ATS in ACC games.
Virginia beat I-AA Richmond 34-13 last week.

Wake Forest (1-0)
Wake had gone to 7 bowls in a row, before LY’s 4-8 season.
Deacons have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Wake Forest has 69 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Bachmeier had 37 starts at Boise State/Louisiana Tech.

Under Clawson, Wake is 22-16 ATS as home favorites.
Deacons are 9-12 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
Since 2020, Deacons are 17-15 ATS in conference games.
Wake Forest beat a I-AA team 45-13 last week.

Wake Forest won/covered last five series games.
Virginia is 0-3 ATS in last three visits to Winston Salem.

Michigan has been home underdogs of 7 or more points five times since 2005.

Michigan went 0-5 in those games

70% of money is on Texas -7.5 at BETMGM

In its biggest CFB decisions entering the weekend, Primesportsbook (Ohio/New Jersey) needs:

Iowa State +3 (vs. Iowa)
Maryland-Michigan State under 44.5

Kansas (-5) @ Illinois
Kansas (1-0)
Kansas was 9-4 LY, their first winning season since 2008.
Jayhawks have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Kansas has 130 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Daniels has 20 career starts.

In his career, Leipold is 8-9 ATS as road favorite, 1-2 at Kansas.
Under Leipold is 9-6-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last two years, Kansas was 7-1 ATS in non-league games.
Jayhawks pummeled a I-AA team 40-3 last week.

Illinois (1-0)
Last three years under Bielema, Illinois was 5-7/8-5/5-7.
Illinois has 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Illini has 77 returning starts on OL.
Junior QB Altmyer has 10 career starts.

Under Bielema, Illinois is 3-4 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Bielema is 14-14 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 3-7 ATS in non-league games.
Illinois pummeled a I-AA team 45-0 last week.

Last year, Kansas (-3.5) beat Illinois 34-23 at home.
Jayhawks outgained Illinois, 539-341.
Big 18 teams are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games vs Big X opponents.

Tennessee (-7.5) vs NC State (@ Charlotte)
Tennessee (1-0)
Last two years, Vols are 20-6 SU/17-9 ATS
Tennessee has 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Vols have 112 returning starts on the offensive line;
Frosh QB Iamaleava had one start, was MVP of Citrus Bowl.

Under Heupel, Tennessee is 16-8 ATS as a favorite.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 13-12 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 12-4 ATS in non-league games.
Vols whacked a I-AA team 69-3 last week.

NC State (1-0)
Wolfpack was 9-4 LY, their 9th winning season in ten years.
NC State has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Wolfpack has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB McCall started 41 games at Coastal Carolina.

Wolfpack is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as an underdog.
In his career, Doeren is 24-29-2 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2019, Wolfpack is 7-13 ATS in non-league games.
NC State beat a I-AA team 38-21 last week.

These teams haven’t met since 2012.
Since start of LY, ACC teams are 8-5 ATS against SEC opponents.

Colorado @ Nebraska (-7.5)
Colorado (1-0)
Last three years, Colorado was 9-27 SU/15-21 ATS
Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 100 returning starts on offensive line, and a new OL coach.
QB Sanders started 11 games LY, after playing multiple years at I-AA Jackson State.

Under Sanders, Colorado is 6-3 ATS as an underdog (3-2 LY).
Since 2017, Buffs are 10-20-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Colorado was 4-8 SU last year, despite a +9 turnover ratio.
LW, Colorado trailed I-AA ND State at half, beat them 31-26.

Nebraska (1-0)
Nebraska hasn’t had a winning season since 2016.
Cornhuskers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Nebraska has 152 returning starts on OL, mostly from transfers.
Freshman QB Raiola is be the starter.

Since 2017, Nebraska is 9-18 ATS as a home favorite.
As college coach, Rhule is 13-16 ATS as home favorite, 2-3 at Nebraska.
Last five years, Cornhuskers are 5-12-1 ATS coming off a win.
Last week, Nebraska ran for 223 yards, pounded UTEP 40-7.

Colorado won/covered last three series games.
Buffs (-2.5) threw for 396 yards in LY’s 36-14 win.
Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.

Boise State @ Oregon (-19.5)
Boise State (1-0)
Broncos fired their coach LY after a 5-5 start, won 4 of last 5 games.
Boise has 6 starters back on offense, all 11 on defense.
Broncos have 66 starts returning on the offensive line.
Soph QB Madsen (132 pass attempts LY) is the ‘QB.

LW, Broncos ran for 371 yards, won 56-45 (-13) at Georgia Southern.
Last ten years, Boise is 8-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Broncos are 7-13-1 ATS in last 21 non-conference games.
Boise is 11-22-1 ATS in last 34 games coming off a win.

Oregon (1-0)
Last three years, Oregon is 32-9 SU, 23-16-2 ATS.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Ducks have 144 returning starts on the offensive line.
Ducks poached senior QB Gabriel (49 starts at UCF/Oklahoma).

Under Lanning, Oregon is 16-5 ATS as a favorite.
LW, Oregon outgained Idaho 487-217, but won only 24-14.
Since 2015, Ducks are 18-25 ATS in non-league games.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 15-5 ATS coming off a win.

These teams haven’t met since 2017.
For the record, Boise State won/covered last three meetings.

Mississippi State @ Arizona State (-6)
Mississippi State (1-0)
Jeff Lebby is Miss State’s 5th head coach the last eight seasons.
Lebby was offensive coordinator at Oklahoma the last 2 years.
Bulldogs have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Bulldogs have 67 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Shapen started 23 games at Baylor.

Since 2020, MSU is 8-6 ATS as a road underdog.
MSU is 19-10-1 ATS in its last 30 non-SEC games.
Since 2020, Bulldogs are 12-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
Bulldogs beat up on a I-AA team 56-7 last week.

Arizona State (1-0)
Last two years, Sun Devils went 3-9/3-9 SU, 5-7/6-6 ATS
ASU has 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Sun Devils have 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Bourguet started 6 games; they added a transfer QB from Michigan State and another QB who started 25 games at Georgia Tech/Nebraska.

Since 2017, ASU is 8-15 ATS as an home favorite.
LW, ASU pounded Wyoming 48-7, outgaining them 499-118
Since 2017, Sun Devils are 5-16-1 ATS in non-league games.
Under is 11-1-1 in ASU’s last 13 non-league home games.

These teams have never met.

Oregon State (-6.5) @ San Diego State
Oregon State (1-0)
Last two years, Beavers were 18-8 SU, but they’ve been gutted.
Oregon State has 4 starters back on offense, 1 on defense.
Beavers have 93 returning starts on OL, from various places.
Junior QB McCoy started 23 games at I-AA Idaho.

Last ten years, Oregon State is 2-10 ATS as a road favorite.
Beavers are 12-6 ATS in last 18 non-league games.
LW, Beavers ran ball for 362 yards in 38-15 win over I-AA Idaho State.
Oregon State has new coach, new QB, no league to play in; the former coach is a Beaver alum, and he bolted. I’m guessing they have a chip on their shoulders.

San Diego State (1-0)
Aztecs were 4-8 last year, their worst season since 2009.
San Diego State has 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Aztecs have 67 starts returning on offensive line.
Soph QB is a transfer from Florida State.

New coach Lewis was 24-31 at Kent State (2018-22), making two bowls.
At Kent State, Lewis was 6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Last 10 years, San Diego State is 10-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Aztecs beat up on a I-AA team 45-14 last week.

Oregon State (-24) beat Aztecs 26-9 LY, outgaining them 475-326
Beavers won last four meetings (2-2 ATS)

Old Dominion vs East Carolina (-2.5, 55)
Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

After opening at Circa with a line of Old Dominion -3, we’ve seen a 5.5-point swing through zero to ECU -2.5, which is about a 17% (!) swing in implied probability in this game. TSI projects Old Dominion as a 4-point favorite, so I technically would’ve leaned ODU out of the gate, but I certainly will take the additional 17% edge here. The just-for-fun-2024-data-only projection said ODU -10.5, FWIW. We’ve actually also seen the Over get steamed from 49.5 to 55, with a TSI projection of just 44 (and a 2024-only projection of 38).

Texas Longhorns at Michigan Wolverines
Michigan has some massive questions to answer at the quarterback position. Davis Warren looked average in the win over Fresno State. The senior averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt and threw one touchdown to one interception. As a result, the offense struggled and the Wolverines averaged 4.2 yards per play. Those issues led to the market severely downgrading Michigan, so bettors must now decide if that adjustment is warranted.

As a handicapper I tend to be hesitant to downgrade a team severely after a single result. I believe that the market has gone too far in one direction on this line, and that the home team presents some value catching over a touchdown at home. Having said that, the offense scares me enough that instead of back the Wolverines from the side, I will do so in a different way.

Michigan is legitimate on defense. It limited Fresno State to just nine yards rushing and 6.5 yards per attempt through the air. The unit also forced two turnovers, one of which was a pick-six that put the team up 13 points late in the fourth quarter. I believe this group can put up an extremely strong effort at home against Texas.

Remember, the Longhorns have been dealt two big injury blows in the backfield. They ran the ball well against Colorado State, but it was not dominant. Texas averaged just 4.6 yards per carry. It will be a much stiffer test for this offensive line on Saturday. If Michigan can make their opponent one-dimensional, I believe it could lead to a long day for the road team.