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msudogs
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NCAAF Betting Splits

One key concept readers need to consider when utilizing the systems is that not all rely on fading the public majorities. Some of them are built on the premise of getting behind the masses, as some of these angles prove there are some spots in which the public has thrived with college football, note #6 specifically.

Here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2024 season. Note that these systems only include games matching two FBS opponents against one another

Old Post 08-18-24 01:32 PM
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DK College Football Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 82-97 ATS (45.8%). This angle has consistently produced at around 46% since it was first discovered.

Old Post 08-18-24 01:32 PM
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DK College Football Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 164-188 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%; in 2023, it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency.

Old Post 08-18-24 01:34 PM
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DK College Football Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 164-190 ATS (46.3%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2023, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.

Old Post 08-18-24 01:34 PM
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DK College Football Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 142-132 ATS (51.8%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off.

Old Post 08-18-24 01:34 PM
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DK College Football Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 126-111 ATS (53.2%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and though it was down a bit for 2023, it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.

Old Post 08-18-24 01:34 PM
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DK College Football Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)! This shows that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.

Old Post 08-18-24 01:34 PM
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DK College Football Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 313-354 ATS (46.9%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer.

Old Post 08-18-24 01:38 PM
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DK College Football Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the 2022 season, where the totals reached 57 or higher, and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 51-38 (57.3%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 89 of 1567 games.

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DK College Football Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 25-13 (63.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.

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DK College Football Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%). This system improved its win percentage in 2023. Again, not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.

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A few lopsided Week 1 college football sides at
DKSportsbook


88% of bets on Oklahoma State -9.5
87% on Alabama -32
86% on Western Illinois +35
83% on LSU -4 (opened -6)
83% on Bucknell +33
82% on Georgia -13.5
82% on Michigan -21
81% on Miami (FL) -2.5

Old Post 08-28-24 03:38 PM
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here we go

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 51-38 (57.3%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 89 of 1567 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NORTH TEXAS-SOUTH ALABAMA

Old Post 08-31-24 09:44 PM
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CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 25-13 (63.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NEVADA-TROY

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CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 51-38 (57.3%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 89 of 1567 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NORTH TEXAS-SOUTH ALABAMA

Old Post 08-31-24 11:02 PM
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CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #3 -FCS foes not adequate prep for conference play: Teams that are double-digit conference favorites in Game 2 after having just an FCS opening game under their belt have gone just 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS (12.5%) over the last 12 seasons.
System Match (FADE ALL): NAVY (-12.5 vs. Temple), UTAH (-14 vs. Baylor), LIBERTY (-21.5 at New Mexico State)

ARKANSAS is 0-12 (0.0%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2020
System Match: FADE ARKANSAS (+7 at Oklahoma State)

TROY is 16-3 (84.2%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2021
System Match: PLAY TROY (+18 at Memphis)

MICHIGAN STATE at MARYLAND
*Under the total is 8-0-1 in MSU-Maryland rivalry since 2014
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 44)

Old Post 09-07-24 01:46 PM
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CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the 2022 season, where the totals reached 57 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 51-38 (57.3%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 89 of 1567 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): SAM HOUSTON ST-UCF

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to Makinen POWER RATINGS projections: MISSISSIPPI STATE +6.5 at Arizona State (+8.3 diff)

Old Post 09-07-24 01:46 PM
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CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 164-190 ATS (46.3%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2023, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.

System Matches (FADE ALL): GEORGIA TECH, KANSAS STATE, TEXAS, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, EAST CAROLINA, SOUTH ALABAMA, KANSAS, UAB, LIBERTY

Old Post 09-07-24 01:48 PM
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CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 126-111 ATS (53.2%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and though it was down a bit for 2023, it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.

System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, MARSHALL, TULSA, MISSISSIPPI STATE

Old Post 09-07-24 01:48 PM
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CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 51-38 (57.3%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 89 of 1567 games.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): SAM HOUSTON ST-UCF

Old Post 09-07-24 01:48 PM
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