KANSAS STATE is 40-21-2 ATS since 2019

Head coach Chris Kleiman has a good pulse on his team, as it has performed consistently in his six-year tenure. This year could prove to be a challenge with QB Will Howard now at Ohio State, but until there is a reason otherwise, don’t feel bad about backing the Wildcats.

Potential 2024 spots: All games, starting 8/31 vs. UT-Martin

PITTSBURGH is 33-16 Over the total since 2020

Pittsburgh has been an underrated offensive program in recent years under head coach Pat Narduzzi, as well as a consistently below-average defensive team. Oddsmakers seemingly have not picked up on the lengthy trend either. With nine offensive starters and four defensive starters back for 2024, the trend of higher-scoring games figures to continue.

Potential 2024 spots: All games, starting 8/31 vs. Kent State

ALABAMA is on a 20-7 ATS surge at home

If you need any more evidence to convince yourself that Alabama boasts one of, if not the best home-field advantages in all of college football, this point spread record should prove it. The Tide are 26-1 outright in these games.

Potential 2024 spots: Seven home games, starting 8/31 vs. Western Kentucky

OREGON STATE is 25-5 ATS in home games over the last five seasons

The Pac-12 folded around Oregon State over the last year, leaving what looks to be a much less formidable home schedule in 2024. The Beavers are a team rebuilding under first-time head coach Trent Bray, but more success at home should keep the program in good shape.

Potential 2024 spots: Seven home games, starting 8/31 vs. Idaho State

UNLV is on a 17-4 ATS run in non-conference games and 12-4 ATS run following a straight-up win

The Runnin’ Rebels have become a trendy team in recent years, some very good, some very bad. Head coach Barry Odom’s team went 10-4 ATS for bettors last year and continued building on some angles that began even before he arrived.

Potential 2024 spots: Five non-conference games, starting 8/31 at Houston

LIBERTY is on a 12-3 ATS run as an underdog

Although this trend didn’t play out well for Liberty in last year’s Fiesta Bowl, the Flames have played well recently when underrated by oddsmakers. Unfortunately, as head coach Jamey Chadwell’s team has become the class of Conference USA and always plays one of the country’s easiest schedules, the angle doesn’t come up all that often.

Potential 2024 spots: Only one realistic underdog scenario on the schedule, 9/28 at Appalachian State

BOISE STATE has rebounded from its last 13 outright losses by going 11-2 ATS in the follow-up contest

One of the signs of a strong and well-coached college football program is the ability to bounce back immediately after losses. Boise State is always among the front runners in the Mountain West because it responds well after setbacks.

Potential 2024 spots: First realistic post-loss opportunity, 9/21 vs. Portland State

NEW MEXICO STATE has gone 26-14 ATS overall over the last three seasons, including 11-3 ATS as a favorite

If any trend to this point faces a challenge in continuing, it is this one. This will be a true rebuilding season in Las Cruces, as NMSU has just seven starters back and a brand-new coaching staff. My numbers call for the Aggies to be favored in five games.

Potential 2024 spots: First favorite opportunity, the 8/31 opener versus SE Missouri State

KANSAS has been on a huge totals run, going 32-15 Over the total since 2019

Kansas has thrilled college football fans and bettors recently with its explosive play and high-scoring, thrilling games. Last year, the Jayhawks averaged over 10 yards per pass attempt, second only to LSU. And that was even with QB Jalon Daniels missing much of the season. He’s back, and the explosiveness should be as well.

Potential 2024 spots: All games, starting 8/29 vs. Lindenwood

WEST VIRGINIA has enjoyed a strong home-field advantage over the last four seasons, going 16-6 ATS

Being the furthest program east in the Big 12 in recent years has not hurt West Virginia’s ability to perform well at home in games. WVU has a passionate fan base, and Mountaineer Field has a long history of being a tough place to play. Under head coach Neal Brown, that trend has continued.

Potential 2024 spots: Seven home games in all, and the first is a big one, 8/31 vs. Penn State

GEORGIA STATE has done its best work away from home in recent seasons, 19-6 ATS in the last 25 road/neutral contests

Georgia State is one of the top five performing point spread teams in the country over the last four years. The Panthers’ best success has come away from home, and this includes three straight convincing bowl victories.

Potential 2024 spots: GSU plays six road games, including four straight in October/November. The first one is the opener at Georgia Tech on 8/31

RUTGERS has gone 11-3 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games

I’m not sure anyone could ever convince me that Rutgers’ move to the Big Ten ever made geographical or competitive sense for the program. That said, I’m not surprised to see a trend indicating that the Scarlet Knights’ best success in recent years has come in non-Big Ten games.

Potential 2024 spots: Rutgers plays three non-conference games , starting 8/29 vs. Howard

SAM HOUSTON STATE boasts a 14-3 ATS mark in its last 17 lined games as an underdog

It’s not surprising to see recently promoted FBS teams faring well as underdogs, as these programs have a natural built-in chip on their shoulder to prove they can compete at the highest level. However, this trend started prior to last year, so it’s pretty clear that head coach KC Keeler uses the underdog role to motivate his team to play well.

Potential 2024 spots: My numbers show SHSU as an underdog in seven games this season, starting first at Rice on 8/31

MICHIGAN is 29-13-1 ATS overall in the last three seasons, including 16-5 ATS in road/neutral games

With all of the change that has occurred at Michigan since the national title game win in January, there are a lot of analysts, including myself, who have written off the Wolverines’ chances for 2024. However, this is a team on a massive run of point-spread success, particularly on the road, and won’t go down without a fight.

Potential 2024 spots: Michigan doesn’t play a road game till an October 5th title game rematch at Washington

LOUISIANA TECH totals have gone 31-15-1 Over since 2019

Louisiana Tech has allowed over 33 PPG in four straight seasons. If you’re looking for any primary reasons why the Bulldogs tend to go Over on most totals, that would be the place to start. Only five starters are back on the defensive side of the ball for 2024, don’t expect a ton of improvement.

Potential 2024 spots: LTU’s opener is at home versus Nicholls State on 8/31, first FBS game is 9/14 at NC State

SOUTH CAROLINA owns an impressive 11-4 ATS mark as a favorite over the last four seasons

You have to give some credit to head coach Shane Beamer at South Carolina. His team generally wins the games it is supposed to win. The problem is that in the SEC, there aren’t many times per season that the Gamecocks are “supposed” to win.

Potential 2024 spots: I have South Carolina expected to be favored four times, starting 8/31 at home versus Old Dominion

TULSA is 22-8-1 ATS in road/neutral games over the last four seasons

Head coach Kevin Wilson’s first Tulsa team didn’t do a whole lot well last year. However, it did continue a long running trend of bringing back profits for backers in road games. The Golden Hurricane were 4-1-1 ATS on the road and are now a 73%+ cover in road games over the last five seasons.

Potential 2024 spots: Tulsa plays six road games, including 9/7 at Arkansas State

LSU is 20-7 Over the total in the two-year head coach Brian Kelly era

Points have been plenty in the two-year tenure of head coach Brian Kelly at LSU, so much so that oddsmakers seemingly can’t keep up. Last year, the Tigers led the country with 45.5 PPG. However, they also allowed 28 PPG. Even with Heisman Trophy-winning QB Jayden Daniels off to the NFL, I wouldn’t expect an overhaul in how they play.

Potential 2024 spots: LSU’s opener versus USC has fireworks written all over it

MARYLAND has gone 15-6 ATS in its last 21 non-Big Ten games

Like fellow East Coaster Rutgers, Maryland has also found the going much tougher in the Big Ten than out of conference. Head coach Mike Locksley’s team is rebuilding somewhat in 2024 but has three very winnable non-conference tilts to beef up the record.

Potential 2024 spots: Maryland hosts Connecticut in the season opener on 8/31

TENNESSEE has throttled non-conference opponents in the last three seasons, 11-1 ATS in the last 12

Like many SEC teams, Tennessee fattens its stats and builds confidence in non-league games against overmatched opponents. The Vols are in a current 11-1 ATS surge in non-SEC games and play four such opponents in 2024

Potential 2024 spots: Tennessee’s non-conference slate starts 8/31 vs. FCS Chattanooga