Arsenal vs. Chelsea (12:30 p.m. ET on NBC)

In the marquee match of the weekend, Arsenal host Chelsea in a battle of North London vs. West London. The Gunners have been slumping and continue to look vulnerable on defense, a recurring theme over the last 10-plus seasons. If this match is anything like the first meeting back in August (Chelsea won 3-2), we should be in for a good one.

Chelsea have the advantage once again, even on the road, yet public bettors are hammering Arsenal (+180) at home. At the time of publication, Arsenal have received 63% of moneyline wagers, but their odds have shifted from +185 to +205

Arsenal have only lost 4 of their last 13 games when hosting Big Six opposition, scoring 2+ goals in 8/14 fixtures at The Emirates.

Chelsea have W3-D4-L2 against top-half teams despite 6/9 taking place at Stamford Bridge.

Tottenham face a difficult test on Sunday as they take the short journey to take on Fulham with a depleted squad. Although the home side find themselves in the relegation zone, they will be looking to approach the game with positivity as they will realise this is a good opportunity to get something from one of the better sides in the division. Mauricio Pochettino will be without both Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, who are the main source of goals in the Spurs’ squad. The focus will be on the likes of Erik Lamela, Lucas Moura and Dele Alli to step up in their absence.

Claudio Ranieri hasn’t had the desired impact on the Fulham squad, as they remain languishing in the bottom three facing a real possibility of relegation back to the Championship. This would be a disaster considering the money that was spent on the playing staff during the summer. In hindsight, their business was very scattergun in its approach and it could be looked back on as a very costly transfer window for the club in the long-term. They have already moved to bring in Ryan Babel this month to add attacking flair to the squad, but supporters will be concerned that the deal doesn’t address the real flaws at the club.

Although a title challenge looks to be beyond Spurs, they will be keen to keep as close as possible to the two teams above them. The loss to Manchester United was a huge blow considering the chances that they did have in the final third. It was a reminder to supporters that their team remains some distance from being able to challenge for the title and the lack of transfer business conducted over the last 12 months is a major reason for that. This week has seen Mousa Dembele depart the club on a permanent basis. If reinforcements aren’t signed this month, those concerns over recruitment will grow.

Interesting stats

Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored in all three of his previous matches against Tottenham, including in the first meeting of the two clubs this season.

Tottenham have won the four most recent fixtures between the two clubs across all competitions.

Key men

Mitrovic


The Serbian looks to be the main hope that Fulham supporters have when it comes to Premier League survival. Mitrovic has scored eight times in the league this season and his goals will be vital if the Cottagers are to beat the odds to survive. There were doubts about his ability to do it in the top-flight, but he has proven the critics wrong and he will know that he has a long term future at this level even if his current side are relegated in May. Tottenham are a club that he has fared well against in the past and that will give him confidence going into this weekend. Despite their poor defence, Fulham will be hoping that the visitors can be kept out on Sunday due to the absence of Kane and Son. If the home side manages to do that, the platform will be there for Mitrovic to play a starring role. He will relish the opportunity to prove his quality against a top-four side and move closer to the ten-goal mark for the season. Spurs will be worried about him this weekend.

Alli

The England international was a revelation during his early seasons in the Premier League, but his devastating form in front of goal has declined somewhat over the last 18 months. There have been several reasons for that, including a change in role. When Kane and Son both play, Alli is played in a deeper role and he isn’t able to get into goal-scoring positions as much as he would like. At this stage, he has four goals and one assist in the Premier League. The midfielder and Pochettino alike will be hoping for a much improved second half of the season in terms of productivity. The forced absences of Kane and Son mean that there is a chance for the 22-year-old to step up to take the mantle. He could be used as a striker, false nine or a number ten, all of which will mean more attacking license. It will be interesting to see what role he is used in and his level of performance against Fulham.

Team news

Ryan Babel could make his debut for the home side after joining the club this week. Alfie Mawson won’t feature as he remains on the sidelines. André-Frank Zambo Anguissa is a doubt with an ankle injury.

Harry Kane has been ruled out after suffering an injury against Manchester United, while Son Heung-min is away on international duty. Fernando Llorente will be hoping that this gives him a chance to start in the Premier League. Eric Dier and Lucas Moura could both return to the match-day squad, while Moussa Sissoko is unlikely to be fit to feature.

Verdict

This is going to be a test for Tottenham as they have to show that they have strength in depth to deal with major injuries. Their problems lie in attack and central midfield and it will be interesting to see how Pochettino lines up. Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli both have to step up as key players for the visiting side. Fulham have shown some signs of life under Ranieri, but they are a side that Pochettino will be expecting to beat despite the players set to miss out. I would expect an open game with both sides getting on the score-sheet. The home team’s defence or lack of it means that Spurs should manage to return to winning ways.

Fulham 1-2 Tottenham

Huddersfield v Manchester City | Sunday 20th January 2019, 13:30 | Sky Sports
This is another ‘must win’ match for Manchester City and Pep Guardiola as they face a tricky trip to Huddersfield on Super Sunday.

League position puts the Terriers rock-bottom of the Premier League on 11 points and the hosts have recently parted company with David Wagne – for this reason, it may make this match a little more difficult for the champions. Mark Hudson has taken the driving seat as caretaker manager for Town.

City’s recent form has been questionable, and away from The Etihad their Expected Goals numbers have dropped from over 2.00 to 1.89. The Citizens still hold a decent defensive metric of 0.77 xG against on their travels which, when you’re not playing at your best, comes in handy.

Two questions I ask myself when looking at games involving the Big Six versus the bottom-six are, 1) can the bottom-six score? and 2) how many can the Big Six side score?

Any team can score a goal as football is full of luck and randomness, as we know, but to give ourselves a better chance of predicting the outcome of this type of match, I find those two questions are a decent starting point.

How many can City score?
We have seen over the last few weeks that City can score at will, though that was against lesser opposition; Guardiola’s group have aggregated 24 goals in last five games across all competitions, conceding just two. The games against Rotherham (7-0) and Burton (9-0) make up the bulk of that figure.

In the Premier League and away from home they have score 19 conceded seven. They are currently outperforming xG metrics by 11 goals over the 22 games played (0.50 xG for) averaging 2.21 per-game.

The win against Wolves was distorted by the early red card but I still think the result would have been the same. They know that a loss at this pinnacle point of the season will see them fight an uphill battle to retain the title.

I can only see one result in this match, especially with star players returning to full fitness (Kevin De Bruyne) and Sergio Aguero rested for the win against Wolves. City do have the second leg of the EFL Cup three days after this match but that is already sewn up.

Can Huddersfield grab a goal?
No, I don’t think so, is the answer to this one. They have played Chelsea (0-3) Tottenham (0-2) and Liverpool (0-1) so far this season at the John Smiths Stadium without scoring.

If we go back into the calendar year, we can see losses to Arsenal (0-1) and Liverpool (0-3) – even though that is a small sample size, we can see that they do struggle to put the ball in the net against top opposition at home.

City have conceded three times in their last five away games in the Premier League, which is a slight concern for my preferred selection, but only slight.

Expected Goals home and away against the Big Six this season, Huddersfield average 0.73 and concede 1.75, which doesn’t bode well. With the manager leaving also, I think the Terriers will try and show some bite but end up all bark as City’s aggressive press both defensively and offensively will be too much.

The betting angle
As expected, the champions are massively odds-on at 1/6 and the Asian Handicap line set at 2.75, so a 0-3 scoreline would see profit. As usual with a match involving Manchester City, the goalline is set high at 3.25 so four goals are needed to make money.

As I am not expecting Huddersfield to contribute to the goals tally, that leaves us with the first question and I think the answer is over three.

My selection here is to go with the Manchester City -2 in the straight handicap (11/10 Bet365), meaning that we need them to win by three or more goals to profit, which I think considering it was 6-1 in the reverse fixture, and off the pitch affairs for Huddersfield, City are capable of producing.

Huddersfield vs. Manchester City (8:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)

Manchester City appear to be themselves again after a blip in December, and oddsmakers and bettors are expecting at blowout at Huddersfield.

After opening at -575, Man City are already up to -700 and could keep increasing. They’re also -2.5 on the goal-line, so an exact scoreline of 3-0 or 4-0 could be potential bets to make here.

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Tottenham v Fulham FC Over 2.5 -123

glta

Fulham vs. Tottenham (11 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)

Tottenham just lost star striker Harry Kane for 6-8 weeks, which is terrible timing considering the EFL Cup and Champions League matches coming up. They’re already without Heung-min Son due to Asian Cup duty, and Sunday’s match could prove a tricky one at Craven Cottage.

There are two profitable system matches involving this game: Fulham (+450) and Over (2.5). Public bettors have been avoiding Fulham, yet their odds have improved from +550 to +450. Look for Fulham to pull off a 2-1 upset in the final match of the weekend.

great match, on cue here, nice W
GL