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NFC West Outlook
June 13, 2013
The Hall of Fame Game to open the NFL preseason is just around the corner, less than two months away. The NFL draft, free agency, and injury reports from mini-camps steal the spotlight in the summer but the April release of 2013 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC West this season, a division that made a lot of noise in the NFC last season with the 49ers and Seahawks both among the final four in the conference.
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals were 4-0 to start the 2012 season including wins over Seattle and New England. Arizona won just once the rest of the way, finishing 5-11 and featuring the second worst point production in the NFL. The collapse led to a coaching change with Bruce Arians taking over for Ken Whisenhunt despite Whisenhunt taking the Cardinals to their first ever Super Bowl just a few years prior. The quarterback situation has been a huge problem for the Cardinals in recent years and veteran Carson Palmer was acquired to address that need but there are still many question marks for this team.
Arizona will be the clear 4th place team in this division in most predictions with a lot of stability with the three other franchises. Arizona will face daunting travel this season with a 750 mile trip to San Francisco as the shortest journey of the season and the Cardinals will play four games in the Eastern Time zone including two of those games on the second of back-to-back road game sets. Drawing Philadelphia and Detroit with the 4th place schedule does not appear to be a great advantage for Arizona and with all four NFC South teams on the slate it will not be easy to improve on a 3-9 NFC mark from last season given how tough this division will be. The Cardinals along with the rest of the NFC West will face the four AFC South teams and even though that includes two 2012 playoff teams that is a relatively favorable draw and will present games with Jacksonville and Tennessee, though the Cardinals have the misfortune of both of those games being on the road. Arizona was just 1-7 on the road last season and this year the road schedule will provide the easier opportunities for wins as none of the five out of division road games will come against a team that had a winning record last season.
That means a challenging home slate however with Carolina, Atlanta, Indianapolis, and Houston visiting Glendale. Arizona will open with three of the first four games of the season on the road and even through none of the first five opponents made the playoffs last season it will be a tough way to start the season for a team in transition. There are some positive pieces left behind on this roster but overall it does not appear that a quick turnaround season will be possible for the Cardinals through this schedule unless this team is ready for day 1 and can take advantage of a somewhat softer September slate on the road.
Arizona Cardinals 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .520
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (five home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 13,691
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 1 (one Thursday)
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers made it to the Super Bowl last season and this team should be one of the favorites in the NFC in 2013. The 49ers will face an unbelievable amount of travel miles but they do face only seven true road games with a game in London. San Francisco will also play the key division road games with Seattle and St. Louis early in the year, getting the home games in the second time around which is generally considered more favorable. There are tough games ahead with both Green Bay and Washington as part of the 1st place schedule along with all four NFC South teams on the slate but the Falcons and Packers both have to travel to San Francisco. Five of the seven games against 2012 playoff teams will be at home so while there are some very tough games ahead for this team, most of the toughest games are at home.
The schedule will open with a bang however with four of the first five opponents being playoff teams from last year and the one foe that was not is a short week Thursday night road game against St. Louis, a team that handled the 49ers well last season. San Francisco could definitely face a rough start to the season including games with Green Bay and Seattle in the first two weeks and with a still young quarterback that has never opened the season as a starter, there could be some early trouble. San Francisco does have a softer slate in the middle of the season but there are three games in the Eastern Time zone and the final three home games of the season will be challenging with division games with St. Louis and Seattle and then a big NFC Championship rematch with Atlanta in the second to last game of the regular season.
Overall the road schedule is favorable in terms of the caliber of opponents and even though the travel to London is substantial, the 49ers will face a Jacksonville team that they will be heavily favored over. It will not be shocking to see the 49ers take a few early losses but this is a team that could provide value in the middle of the season and still deserves to be considered among the elite teams in the league, though matching the records of the past two seasons is not a given and this will not be an easy division to win.
San Francisco 49ers 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .520
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (five home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 19,428 (includes 5,354 miles for a game in London)
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2 (includes a neutral site game in London)
Primetime Games: 5 (one Thursday, two Sunday night, two Monday)
Seattle Seahawks: Seattle ended up as one of the top statistical teams in the NFL last season and the Seahawks were very close to making it to the NFC Championship game led by rookie quarterback Russell Wilson. The race in this division is expected to come down to Seattle and San Francisco and while the Seahawks snag a schedule with a slightly lower 2012 win percentage than San Francisco, it is likely a tougher overall slate. Seattle will play a very difficult set of road games and historically the Seahawks are not the same team on the road, including going just 3-5 last season while a perfect 8-0 at home. Seattle faces four 2012 playoff teams on the road but also draws tough road games against the Panthers, Rams, and Giants and the toughest games from the NFC South and AFC South draws will be on the road. Seattle also has to play three separate sets of back-to-back road games which can be especially daunting considering there are no short trips from Seattle. In each of those three instances the second of the two games is the longer trip and could be a spot to fade the Seahawks.
Seattle opens the home schedule with its biggest game, hosting the 49ers and the home slate from there on is pretty favorable with Minnesota as the only winning team from 2012 faced in the final seven home games of the season. Another perfect record at home is very possible for this squad but even matching the 3-5 mark on the road from last season would be a solid accomplishment. Seattle certainly has the potential to meet last year’s 11-5 mark and considering this team was +167 in point differential last year the sky is the limit. The road slate is challenging however and if San Francisco can withstand its first month gauntlet the 49ers may be in a better position to take the division title again, forcing Seattle to another road-heavy path in the playoffs should they get there.
Seattle Seahawks 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .516
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 17,548
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 4 (one Thursday, one Sunday night, two Monday)
St. Louis Rams: While the Rams face long travel for all three division venues their central location does provide an edge in this division, facing far less travel overall than the other three foes. St. Louis was a bit of a surprise team last season with a 7-8-1 mark following up a league-worst 2-14 mark in 2011. One thing most forget that in this division that produced two of the final four teams left standing in the NFC, the Rams featured the best division record going 4-1-1, getting wins against both Seattle and San Francisco at home. The Rams were much less impressive statistically and incredibly this team won four times without scoring 20 points last season as the defense was sharp at times but overall not consistent.
St. Louis is a team that some will view as a possible breakthrough team in 2013 but the schedule is not overly favorable, particularly with a very tough road slate. Five of eight road games are against 2012 playoff teams and games at Dallas and at Carolina are not exactly cupcakes. Drawing Dallas and Chicago in the 3rd place draw illustrates how tough and deep the NFC is right now and the Rams have not displayed an overly tough home field edge, going just 4-4 last year. The big home game with San Francisco will come on a short week after two marquee road games and the home game with Seattle also comes after back-to-back road games which will make it tough to deliver a division sweep at home again this season. The Rams play three sets of back-to-back road games this season which will be a great challenge and they also play the top two AFC South teams Houston and Indianapolis on the road.
St. Louis does have a few favorable early season home games with Arizona, Jacksonville, and Tennessee visiting but overall this is a very tough schedule that is tied for the second toughest in the NFL according to 2012 win percentage. The Rams look like a competitive team that is capable of a few upsets but it will not be easy to take another step forward this season and finishing around .500 is likely the destination for the Rams. The early season schedule with four brutal road games and home contests with the 49ers and Seahawks in the first eight weeks may make a slow start likely and a step back season certainly a possibility if there are any unforeseen setbacks with injuries.
St. Louis Rams 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .539
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (two home, five away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,698
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 2 (one Thursday, one Monday)
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-20-13 08:20 AM |
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CNOTES
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AFC West Outlook
June 5, 2013
The Hall of Fame Game to open the NFL preseason is just two months away! The NFL draft and injury reports from mini-camps steal the spotlight in the summer, but the April release of 2013 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC West this season. This division appears to be Denver's to lose, but there always seems to be a few surprises in the NFL each season.
Denver Broncos: After starting the 2012 season at 2-3, Denver rattled off 11 consecutive wins to close the regular season, tying Atlanta for the best record in the NFL. The only record that mattered was 0-1 however, as Denver was knocked out of the playoffs at home in a wild overtime game at home against the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens. Usually first-place teams are dealt a difficult schedule the following year, but Denver has the lowest 2012 win percentage for its 2013 opponents in the entire NFL. That simplified approach to determining strength of schedule has many faults, but Denver certainly resides in a division that presents a great advantage over most of the other contenders in the NFL. San Diego and Kansas City are both going through coaching changes, while the Raiders are still a young team in flux with a second-year head coach. None of those three teams has had a winning record in either of the past two seasons. Denver went 6-0 last season in its division games with an average margin of victory of 17.5 points and the Broncos will likely be heavy favorites in each matchup again, as five of those six games will be in the second half of the season.
Denver again opens with a couple of big games right off the bat, opening the NFL season by hosting Baltimore and then traveling to New York in Week 2, facing the last two Super Bowl champions in the first two weeks of the season. Things soften considerably from there with early season meetings against two more teams in transition, Philadelphia and Jacksonville, with both of those games at home. In drawing the NFC East and the AFC South teams, there is significant travel ahead for the Broncos and two huge games with Indianapolis and New England will both be on the road. The Broncos close the season with four of the final six games of the season on the road, but it seems unlikely that Denver will be stuck in a tight division race barring a serious injury issues. It might make it tough to wrap up a protected top-2 seed if the Broncos should be caught in a tight race as games late in the year on the road might be difficult, even in this division. Overall, Denver fans should be thrilled with this slate, but a lot of things still have to go right to have back-to-back 13-3 seasons.
Denver Broncos 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .430
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,849
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 5 (two Thursday, Two Sunday night, One Monday)
Kansas City Chiefs: It was a disastrous and tragic season for the Chiefs on and off the field last season, but with veteran coach Andy Reid taking over and still plenty of holdover talent, Kansas City will be a candidate for a significant improvement. After going just 2-14 last season, there is nowhere to go but up and the Chiefs have a schedule that will afford many opportunities to find wins. In only one of the first nine games of the season will the Chiefs face a 2012 playoff team and they will face fellow teams in coaching transitions in two of the first three weeks. Kansas City also has five of the first eight games at home, which could afford an opportunity for a promising start to the season. Kansas City incredibly went 0-12 against the AFC last season and 0-6 within this division and had a bevy of other unflattering numbers including not leading in regulation at any point in the first eight games of last season. The Chiefs also had 37 turnovers last season, a simply astounding number and with the Chiefs losing five games by 10 points or less, it was a big factor that greatly impacted the season.
Adding Alex Smith and improving the offensive line should help in that regard and the schedule will present opportunities especially early in the year. The late-season schedule is much more difficult with two games against Denver in the span of three weeks as well as both games with San Diego late in the year. The Chiefs also must face Washington and Indianapolis in December, so Kansas City will likely need to get its wins early in the year to make a big leap in the standings. Ultimately the results for the Chiefs will depend on improving within the division and being able to get wins against Oakland and San Diego after going 0-4 in those games last season. With a reasonable slate, it is hard not to imaging the Chiefs showing an improved record this season, but a potential promising start could likely fade late in the year.
Kansas City Chiefs 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .473
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,977
Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
Primetime Games: 1 (one Thursday)
Oakland Raiders: Oakland has significant travel ahead with two trips across the country to New York as well as trips to the Midwest. The Raiders will also face two sets of back-to-back road games with long travel in the span of five weeks. Oakland will only face five games against 2012 playoff teams all season and only three of those games are out of the division. Being the third-place team from this division last season features the disadvantage of playing the Steelers and Jets, perhaps a less favorable duo than second-place San Diego will face and the long travel particularly in the second half of the season could take a toll on this squad.
Oakland opens up with very tough games early in the season with 2012 playoff teams in three of the first four weeks of the season, although with home games with Jacksonville and San Diego as well as a trip to Kansas City in the first six weeks of the season, it would not be a shock to see the Raiders at 3-3 entering an early Week 7 bye week. If the Raiders do not have that kind of a start, it could be another rough season as the schedule is challenging in the middle before closing with five of the final six games of the season against teams that did not make the playoffs last season. The home meeting with Denver in Week 17 could also be an opportunity for a win as the Broncos have a good chance to be locked into a playoff spot and potentially resting players at that point in the season. Oakland won just four games last season, but this was an 8-8 team in both 2010 and 2011 and getting back into that range might be a possibility especially with two teams in this division going through a coaching transition, leaving the Raiders as one of the more stable teams in the group, though that may not last.
Oakland Raiders 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .469
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (three away, two home)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 15,298
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 2 (one Thursday, one Monday)
San Diego Chargers: After several years in a row of seemingly underachieving, the Chargers finally pulled the plug on the Norv Turner era. San Diego will go through a major transition this season, but in this division, the opportunity may be there to avoid a big step back. San Diego was even in point differential last season despite finishing just 7-9 and the Chargers had very good defensive numbers last season. Five of the nine losses came by seven points or less and the Chargers played two close games with division champion Denver despite losing both of those games. The Chargers went just 3-5 at home last season so that is a big area of concern and an easy way to find improvement, through San Diego will have a challenging home slate this season featuring four 2012 playoff teams plus the Cowboys and Giants. That does mean that San Diego will also have a very weak road schedule and the Chargers will get to play six of the first seven road games of the season against teams that had losing records last season before a Thursday night road finale late in the season at Denver.
San Diego does play two sets of back-to-back road games and those games could be made trickier by the first leg being in the east coast in both instances, making for taxing travel. San Diego will open the season Monday night at home against Houston and then face a short week with a long trip to Philadelphia so a slow start would not be a surprise for this team, even if the schedule grades out favorably on paper. San Diego will have the potential to close the year strong with four of the final five games of the season at home although several teams will be thrilled to visit San Diego in December to escape cold conditions at home. San Diego has not been that far from being a playoff caliber team in recent seasons, but the big changes coupled with a schedule that starts out tougher than it finishes could spell more disappointment in Southern California.
San Diego Chargers 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .457
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,477
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 3 (one Thursday, two Monday)
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-20-13 08:22 AM |
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CNOTES
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AFC South Outlook
May 18, 2013
The NFL draft is still the focus this time of the year but the recently released 2013 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC South this season. This division will likely be considered the weakest in the NFL by many but with fairly favorable schedules all around the records may not reflect that. These teams will all face a lot of travel miles which could take a toll on the results as Houston looks for a third straight division title.
Houston Texans: Based on win percentage from last season the Texans have the sixth weakest schedule in the NFL and the second weakest of any division champion from 2012. Houston faces long travel with every road game being at least 795 miles away but that is a problem for Houston every year given how far spread out this division is. Houston will play all three division road games in the final four weeks of the season and the final two home games are hosting New England and Denver for a very tough finish to the season. Houston will also have a tough start to the season with a brutal early set of games with Baltimore, Seattle, and San Francisco consecutively starting in week 3. Houston will play seven games against teams that won at least 10 games last season as the overall strength of schedule is brought down with two games against Jacksonville, a team that went 2-14 last season.
Houston also draws all four AFC West teams along with the rest of the division. Houston will play two games in the Pacific Time zone and four games in the Eastern Time zone so there are some challenges with this slate and the travel. While there are several games where the Texans will play as heavy favorites it will likely be a more difficult slate than the team faced last season even with the division as a whole looking like one of the lighter groups in the league. Houston still should be considered the favorite in this division and they have a schedule that is very similar to what Indianapolis faces but the difference between those two teams last season was much greater than the one-game difference in the standings indicated. Houston was 115 points superior in point-differential compared with the Colts last season and the Texans were 6-2 in road games, a record they could certainly repeat with this year's road slate, even with some tough games early in the year.
Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .473
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (four home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,654
Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
Primetime Games: 4 (one Thursday, Two Sunday night, One Monday)
Indianapolis Colts: After the Colts went 11-5 last season for a great turnaround behind rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, there will be many projecting a division championship this season. By 2012 winning percentage the Colts have the third weakest schedule in the NFL and there are only six games against 2012 playoff teams. There is some significant travel on this slate however with three road trips to the western part of the country in addition to long trips to Jacksonville and Houston. The AFC South plays the AFC West teams which is certainly an advantage and the Colts draw Denver at home in what will obviously be a game that captures the nation's attention with Peyton Manning returning. The second place schedule brings tougher than they might sound games with Miami and Cincinnati however, compared with the fourth place slate the Colts dealt with last season in the turnaround.
The coaching staff also loses Bruce Arians who led Indianapolis for most of last season while Chuck Pagano battled leukemia. That storyline certainly helped to bring the team together last season and not having that focus could be a possibility this year. Indianapolis was 11-5 despite being -30 in point differential last season as this was a team that won nine games by seven points or less and this was not a particularly impressive statistical team. Luck was asked to do a lot last season and while he delivered in some big 4th quarter moments his overall numbers were not efficient and he could face a sophomore slump with the league having a whole off-season to break down his film. This division draws the very tough set of NFC West teams and the Colts will have a tough time going 7-1 at home again having to host teams like Seattle and Denver just in the first half of the season. The Colts are a good candidate to start strong however with home games the first two weeks and losing teams from 2012 in three of the first four games. The schedule in the middle of the season looks daunting and a slight step backward is likely in 2013 as this team was fortunate to win 11 games last year.
Indianapolis Colts 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .461
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (three home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,977
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 4 (one Thursday, two Sunday night, one Monday)
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars will certainly be spending some time in the air this season with several incredibly long trips adding to the challenges for a team with a new coaching staff, an unsettled quarterback situation, and coming off an ugly 2-14 season. Jacksonville opens the season with four of the first six games on the road with three of those six games in the western part of the country and all four games as a part of two back-to-back road trips. Jacksonville has winnable games in the first two weeks with Kansas City and then a trip to Oakland but it will be a great challenge in the next six games leading up to a week 9 bye. Jacksonville gives up a home game to play in London where they will face the 49ers and the only break in that scheduling is that San Francisco must make significantly further travel.
There are some opportunities in the second half of the schedule, playing Tennessee twice, as well as games with Arizona, Cleveland, and Buffalo. Even with the loss of the home game and the long travel this is a schedule that a contending team would envy with nine games against teams that had a losing record last season. Three of the final four games of the season are also at home and while the Jaguars are not expected to be in the playoff mix this is a team that could finish with some positive momentum. If the Jaguars fail to win in the first two weeks however things could get very ugly for this squad and by midseason placing a call to the Tim Tebow camp to sell some tickets might be a reasonable idea. It would not be a surprise if the Jaguars improve by several games this season however as there are a lot of games where Jacksonville should feel like they can win even for a team in transition.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .508
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (two home, four away, one neutral)
Miles Traveled for 9 road/neutral games: 15,748 (includes 3,996 miles to London)
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 1 (one Thursday)
Tennessee Titans: The Titans started out last season 1-4 to finish up 6-10 overall with no wins over teams that made the playoffs. This will be a critical third year for head coach Mike Munchak as well as quarterback Jake Locker as this team needs a rebound season. This is a division where a quick turnaround is possible as the Colts proved last year and Tennessee may be a candidate to take a positive step this season. The Titans do have a tough start to the season with back-to-back road games in Pittsburgh and Houston to open the year but then there are three straight home games against losing teams from 2012. Long trips to Seattle, Oakland, and Denver will be on this slate and the Titans have to play three straight road games late in the year with two of those games out west.
The Titans have five home games against losing teams from 2012 and getting to play four games against teams that made a coaching change could also provide opportunities. Having to play the Steelers and the Jets as part of the third place draw is less favorable than most years but overall this is a slate where the Titans can have some success. Improving in the division will likely make of break the team however after Tennessee went 1-5 in division games last season. The Titans will likely need to find a way to at least split with the Texans and Colts to have a shot at making a move upward this season. The early stretch of home games will be critical for the Titans as they host the Chargers, Jets, and Chiefs in succession starting in week 3. They need to win those games to offset very tough games in the rest of the first half schedule to make sure that the season does not turn into a disastrous one.
Tennessee Titans 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .488
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (three home, four away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,477
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3 (including a back-to-back-to-back set)
Primetime Games: 1 (one Thursday)
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-20-13 08:24 AM |
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CNOTES
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NFC South Outlook
June 12, 2013
The Hall of Fame Game to open the NFL preseason is just around the corner, less than two months away. The NFL draft and injury reports from mini-camps steal the spotlight in the summer, but the April release of the 2013 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC South this season. Atlanta ran away with this division last season, but all four teams look like potential playoff teams this season.
Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta had the best record in the NFL last season along with Denver and while the Falcons finally did win a playoff game, they will be remembered more for blowing a substantial lead in the NFC Championship game. All three NFC South opponents went just 7-9 last year, but all three Atlanta regular season losses came within the division. The NFC South figures to again be a very competitive division race after all four teams went 3-3 in the division last season. The Falcons alternated home and road games the entire way through last season en route to a great record and the top seed in the NFC, but this year they will face two sets of back-to-back road games and a couple of long trips late in the season with games in Phoenix, Toronto, Green Bay, and San Francisco. Being the only team in the NFC South that has to play Green Bay is certainly a disadvantage and the South will face off with the NFC West, meaning games with both Seattle and San Francisco. The AFC East draw does look promising at this point and the Falcons will face New England at home early in the season for a Week 4 Sunday night game.
The Falcons will only play two road games against teams that made the playoffs last season, but they are both late in the year in difficult circumstances. The final four weeks of the schedule are very difficult overall for the Falcons, so it is unlikely that this team will coast to a top seed in the conference this season. Atlanta also has an early Week 6 bye week which could magnify the difficulty of the December slate. The end results of the season for the Falcons will likely come down to the division games as they will not likely be able to produce a 10-0 mark outside of the division again with this schedule. Another 3-3 season in this division might mean missing the playoffs this year as the Falcons will play four games outside of the division against teams that would be considered in the top elite tier of the league. All signs point to a drop in record for Atlanta this season with a much tougher schedule in a division where there may not be much separation between the top and the bottom. Atlanta would still be a championship contender if they get into the playoffs but it will be a tougher regular season path.
Atlanta Falcons 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .504
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,317
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2 (includes a neutral site game in Toronto)
Primetime Games: 5 (one Thursday, two Sunday night, two Monday)
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers were a popular pick to make a big rise last season after a strong finish to the 2011 season in Cam Newton’s rookie year. Carolina opened the year 1-6 for a great disappointment, but with wins in the final four games of the season, Carolina did finish 7-9 to improve by one game from the previous season. In year three for Newton and head coach Ron Rivera, the expectations will be higher this season and a push towards the playoff might be needed to avoid some big changes. Carolina has been dealt the most difficult schedule in the league according win percentage from last year as they catch a tough break, technically finishing in 2nd place in the NFC South last season and drawing the Vikings and the Giants as opposed to the 3rd and 4th place teams that New Orleans and Tampa Bay will face.
Carolina does draw an early Week 4 bye week which does not look ideal, but it will split up a tough early schedule with three of the first five on the road and the two home games coming against the Seahawks and Giants. While Carolina is capable of a big step forward season, this is a squad that could again struggle early in the year and see the tide turn against itself internally. November will also be a brutal month for the Panthers with games against Atlanta, San Francisco, and New England in consecutive weeks. The Panthers will play five straight games against teams that did not make the playoffs last season after that, but it is far from an easy stretch as two of the games will be against New Orleans, a team that will be ready for Carolina after the Panthers took both games last season. Carolina will likely be an exciting team that can compete with anyone and will be capable of upsets, but another mediocre season is probably the most likely result with a difficult schedule and a division that is not getting any easier.
Carolina Panthers 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .543
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (three home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,996
Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
Primetime Games: 2 (one Thursday, one Monday)
New Orleans Saints: The Saints had a brutal off-season prior to last season and it showed with a 0-4 start to the year. The Saints were competitive the rest of the way and put up huge offensive numbers, but the defense allowed historic yardage numbers. New Orleans has made a lot of roster and administrative changes, but it should be a much smoother start to the season in 2013 with head coach Sean Payton back on the sidelines. The Saints also draw a reasonable starting schedule with only two games against 2012 playoff teams in the first 10 weeks of the season. There are some tough games on this schedule including road games at New England and at Seattle, but the third-place draw brings in Dallas and Chicago and the AFC East draw presents opportunities for wins. New Orleans is just two years removed from a 13-3 season, so this is a team that is capable of a quick turnaround back to the upper echelon of the NFC and while this is far from an easy schedule it might play out better than the slates that the chief division foes will face.
There are three sets of back-to-back road games on the schedule, including a brutal trip from Atlanta to Seattle in back-to-back weeks, but that difficulty is minimized a bit with the first game coming on a Thursday and the second game coming on a Monday. Overall, the road schedule is very difficult for the Saints as only one opponent finished worse than 7-9 last year. The Saints could get some early season momentum as they have perhaps the most favorable first half schedule in this division and they also have the latest bye week in the division. No slate in the NFC South is easy this season and ultimately New Orleans will need to improve in the divison, starting off with a huge opening game with Atlanta at home that could dictate the direction of the season. Overall, the Saints look like a serious threat to be in the playoff mix if they have a strong first month and can get quickly acclimated to the new defensive scheme.
New Orleans Saints 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .539
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,052
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 4 (one Thursday, one Sunday night, two Monday)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers made an early splash last season starting out 6-4, before losing five of the final six games of the season to fall to 7-9. Getting to 7-9 and a three-way tie in the bottom of the NFC South may prove to be a big advantage this season, as Tampa Bay earned the fourth-place schedule for the 2013 season through ‘losing’ the tiebreakers. That advantage is pronounced given the draws of Philadelphia and Detroit versus the teams the rest of the division has to face from the NFC North and NFC East. Tampa Bay will play a team that finished with a losing record last season in six of eight home games this season and while the road schedule is more difficult, five of the eight games will be against teams that had losing records in 2012. By last season’s records, Tampa Bay has by far the weakest schedule in this division, but they will need to keep pace with this strong group of teams as it will not be easy to go 3-3 in the division again like last season when they caught a few teams by surprise early in the year. Tampa Bay does draw both New England and Seattle on the road for long trips and difficult environments, but getting a more favorable set of home games as a result should pay dividends.
Tampa Bay made very aggressive moves to address issues in the secondary this offseason and in this division with three explosive offensive attacks that should be money well spent as an improved pass defense would be very beneficial. Tampa Bay was just -5 in point differential last season, as this was a team that scored more than 24 points per game. Seven of last year’s nine losses came by eight points or less, so this is a team with a serious dark horse possibility in the NFC picture. This should be the most favorable schedule in this group of teams in the NFC South, far from a sure sign of success, but the opportunity will be there for the Buccaneers to make some noise this season and play itself into the playoff mix. That said with all four teams looking viable, someone will fall short of those goals and the Buccaneers certainly have less stability in key spots than the other teams that play in this division.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .500
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,587
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 2 (one Thursday, one Monday)
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-20-13 08:25 AM |
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CNOTES
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NFC North Outlook
April 27, 2013
The NFL draft gets all the attention this week, but the recent release of the 2013 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC North in this schedule preview. The Minnesota Vikings made a big splash in the first round of the draft, but a daunting travel schedule is ahead for Minnesota this season. The Bears may have the most favorable schedule in the group, but a team in transition may not be able to take advantage. The schedule should point to a rise for the Lions and perhaps a small drop for the Packers in the NFC North, but time will tell if there will be enough of an impact to shake up the standings.
Chicago Bears: The Bears were 10-6 last season, but with another late-season collapse a bold coaching change was made. 57-year old CFL veteran Marc Trestman was certainly not a hire that many fell in love with and while he will inherit a team that can compete right away, there also will be elevated expectations for a first-year coach and a first-time NFL head coach, especially one that has been away from the NFL for almost a decade. Few 10-win teams get a 3rd-place schedule the following year, so the opportunity for the Bears to have early success is there. The 3rd-place games bring the Saints and the Rams and those are games Chicago will probably need to take if the playoffs are to be a reality as the NFC North draws the NFC East and AFC North teams for a rather difficult overall slate ahead.
Chicago will play four of the first six games at home, which could be very helpful for a team in transition. They will host 2012 playoff teams in the first two weeks, but Cincinnati and Minnesota are not as fearsome as some of the other playoff caliber teams in the league. The Bears are saddled with three separate sets of back-to-back road games this season, but compared with the rest of the division, Chicago has a favorable slate of road games with only one game outside of the division against a team that made the playoffs last season. Chicago also gets to play its Monday night game with Green Bay coming off a bye week and with a favorable late-season slate, another collapse is not likely this season. Chicago closes the season hosting Green Bay, but has Dallas, Cleveland, and Philadelphia in the three weeks prior to the finale. Chicago will not play a single game outside of the Eastern and Central time zones as the travel miles are among the lowest in the league. Overall, the Bears have the most favorable schedule in the NFC North and while repeating a double-digit win season in a coaching transition is a difficult task, Chicago has a good shot to move back into a playoff position this year if they can get off to another strong start.
Chicago Bears 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .502
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (four home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 3,476
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 3 (one Thursday, two Mondays)
Detroit Lions: With three 10-win teams from 2012 in the NFC North, the Lions are facing one of the toughest schedules in the league based strictly on last year’s results. After breaking into the playoffs in 2011, the Lions suffered a huge decline last season with a 4-12 record including losing each of the final eight games of the season. Despite being 4-12, the Lions were only outscored by an average of just four points per game and this is a talented team that could be a strong candidate for a rebound season. Given the climate in the locker room and the general sense of immaturity on the roster and starting with head coach Jim Schwartz, a scenario on the other end of the spectrum is certainly a possibility as well. Detroit failed to win a single game within the division last season, so that will be an obvious area where the Lions need to improve. Ford Field also saw the Lions go just 2-6 in home games despite an offense that was very productive, scoring over 23 points per game on average.
By finishing fourth in the division last year, the Lions are the only NFC North team that has Arizona and Tampa Bay on its schedule and that is certainly an advantage given the overall depth of the NFC and the teams that the rest of the division has to face in those match-ups. Detroit does have three sets of consecutive road games on the schedule this year and the Lions could know early how the season will turn out having to play four of the first six games of the season on the road. The late-season schedule is challenging with the Ravens, Giants, and Vikings in the final three weeks, but the Lions do get a bye week before their road meeting with the Bears and the three division home games come in relatively favorable spots on the schedule. Both of the big primetime games for the Lions will also be at home. The Lions certainly look like a team that should improve on last season’s ugly record, but whether they will improve enough to buy this coaching staff another season remains questionable in a very tough division.
Detroit Lions 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .539
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (four home, three away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 5,125
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 2 (one Thanksgiving, one Monday)
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings bolstered their roster with three first round picks and coming off a surprising 10-6 season and a trip to the playoffs, Minnesota might look like a team on the rise. The Vikings will be dealt one of the tougher schedules in the NFL, as they will play just seven home games by virtue of facing Pittsburgh in London. The road schedule is truly difficult as after the opening game at Detroit, Minnesota’s remaining seven road games will all be against teams that finished 8-8 or better last season. In the AFC North, draw the Vikings have road games against Baltimore and Cincinnati, the top two teams from that division last season and they will also have to play at Seattle in the second place NFC draw. There are winnable home games outside of the division with Cleveland, Carolina, and Philadelphia all visiting the Metrodome, but an early Week 5 bye could add to a challenging second half of the season schedule. Minnesota also plays its two biggest division road games, at Chicago, and at Green Bay in the second of back-to-back road games this season.
The Vikings open up with back-to-back road games in the division at Detroit and at Chicago and in late November, they have a brutal set of road games at Seattle and at Green Bay in back-to-back weeks. The home meeting with Green Bay will be a big Sunday night game for the Vikings, but it comes on the heels of a Monday night game in New York, giving the Vikings long travel and a short week for one of the biggest games of the season, while the Packers get to host the Browns leading up to that game. Minnesota went 4-2 in the NFC North last season and it will likely take a similar mark for Minnesota to flirt with the postseason again. With Chicago in a coaching transition and Detroit coming off a dreadful season, it is possible for Minnesota to maintain its place but the Vikings were a team that snuck out several narrow wins last season to sneak into the playoffs and a step-back season is probably a more likely scenario with this slate.
Minnesota Vikings 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .516
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 11,365 (includes 4,280 to London)
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 3 (one Thursday, one Sunday night, one Monday)
Green Bay Packers: The Packers will be the favorites to win the NFC North for the third straight season this year and Green Bay will likely be one of the popular picks to win the Super Bowl again. The Packers stumbled to an 11-5 finish last season and ending up in the #3 spot in the NFC playoff picture proved to be too difficult as Green Bay saw an early playoff exit for the second year in a row. Green Bay was the highest-scoring team in this division last season but in the playoffs the defense showed glaring concerns with an embarrassing loss at San Francisco to end the season. Green Bay will open the season where they left off with a Week 1 match-up at Candlestick Park, a contest they lost in during the opening week last season as well. Having to play San Francisco as well as Atlanta with the first-place schedule is certainly a challenge for the Packers and overall it is not an easy slate for the green and gold. The first four road games of the season will all be against 2012 playoff teams and Green Bay will only play one road game against a team that had a losing record last season, the division game at Detroit in early December.
In the AFC North draw, the Packers get road games against the Super Bowl champion Ravens as well as the Bengals and the Packers will also have to play a road game against another recent nemesis, the New York Giants. The Packers have gone 15-1 at home the last two seasons and that is a run that could continue with a relatively favorable home slate, though there are just four games against losing teams from 2012 on the schedule the whole season. Green Bay will not have to play consecutive road games at any point in the season which is a favorable break in the schedule, especially compared with the rest of the division but the closing schedule is tough with a gauntlet of big national games with Atlanta, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Chicago as the final four opponents. The Packers also will play four road games in the Eastern Time zone as well as the opener in the Pacific Time zone for some lengthy trips. Green Bay will have its work cut out for it this season and the door may be open for a surprise in the NFC North, although none of the other three teams appear poised to make that leap.
Green Bay Packers 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .533
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (three home, four away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 6,785
Back-to-Back road game sets: 0
Primetime Games: 5 (one Thanksgiving, three Sunday night, one Monday)
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-20-13 08:27 AM |
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CNOTES
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AFC North Outlook
May 8, 2013
The NFL draft steals most of the attention in April and May but the recent release of the NFL schedules is more telling factor in the potential results this season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC North in this schedule preview. This has been a competitive 3-team race in recent years and the North could again be a very competitive division with the Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers still standing out ahead of the Browns. The difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs could be very thin in this division and the schedules will play a pivotal role.
Baltimore Ravens: The defending Super Bowl champions will face a tough slate in 2013 drawing Houston and Denver outside of the division and also having to battle all four NFC North teams. The AFC East draw softens the slate a bit potentially but the Ravens have the fifth toughest schedule in the NFL based on the 2012 win percentage of its opponents and by far the toughest slate in the AFC North by that measure. The season opens with a huge Thursday night game in Denver in a rematch of the epic playoff game from last season and the Ravens have several big games early in the season, with games against the Broncos, Browns, Texans, Packers, and Steelers in the first seven weeks. Baltimore only plays two games outside of the Eastern Time zone and the travel overall is pretty reasonable relative to the rest of the league. While there are some tough games late in the season four of the final six games of the season are at home and the Ravens will only play one road games outside of the division against a team that made the playoffs last season.
In the NFC draw the two NFC North playoff teams (Packers Vikings) from last season will both visit Baltimore and the Ravens also get to host New England in the AFC East draw as those pairings worked out favorably. The Ravens were just 10-6 last season despite the championship run so this was not a team that dominated in the regular season and with this slate a similar record is more likely than a record that would propel the Ravens to the top of the AFC. A fall to outside of the playoff picture is also possible if the Steelers rebound for a better season and the Bengals remain a very tough foe in the division.
Baltimore went 4-2 in division games last season and it will be tough to do better than that given the strong rivalries and home fields in this group as the AFC North was one of just two divisions that did not feature a team with a losing home record last year. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh could make up some ground on the Ravens and a letdown season after the championship is certainly possible. Baltimore does benefit from having most of the toughest games at home however, unlike the situation for Pittsburgh.
Baltimore Ravens 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .535
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (five home, two away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 5,553
Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
Primetime Games: 4 (two Thursday, one Sunday night, one Monday)
Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals have busted into the playoffs the past two seasons though they have not picked up a playoff win since 1991 and Boomer Esiason was still under center. Cincinnati appears to be headed towards being a consistent playoff contender however after being a consistent doormat for many years with a great young nucleus of talent. Cincinnati actually had the best point differential in this division last season, better than the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens and sights on a division title are realistic. The schedule for the Bengals this season lines up most of the toughest games at home but it may be a slate that is more difficult than it looks at first glance.
The challenge for Cincinnati this season will be surviving the first month of the season as the early season schedule is very tough. The Bengals open at Chicago and while the Bears are in a transition season with a new head coach, expectations are high and the Bears have a lot to prove. The next two games are at home but the Bengals host Pittsburgh and Green Bay. In Week 4 the Bengals are at Cleveland in a big rivalry game and then in Week 5 the Bengals host New England. That could be a five-game set that derails the goals for the season or brings the Bengals to the forefront of the AFC. Cincinnati plays non-playoff teams in five of six games in the middle of the season and will get three of the final four at home to close the year.
Five of eight home games for the Bengals are against 2012 playoff teams and the road schedule may be more difficult than the numbers imply as the Bears, Steelers, and Chargers should be viewed as playoff caliber teams even though they missed the postseason last year. Cincinnati won five games by seven or fewer points last season and it may be a season of close calls again this year with the line between being back in the playoffs and missing out being a thin one in a very competitive division.
Cincinnati Bengals 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .508
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (five home, one away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 5,446
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 3 (one Thursday, one Sunday night, one Monday)
Cleveland Browns: In this division it will be tough for the Browns to move up and the 2013 schedule does not offer Cleveland great opportunities. Cleveland has gone 1-7 on the road each of the past two seasons and the Browns line up an incredibly difficult road schedule this season, facing five 2012 playoff teams. Two of the road games against non-playoff teams will come in the second of back-to-back road games and another 1-7 road season is certainly a possibility. The Browns are the only team in the division to draw Kansas City and Jacksonville which is certainly an advantage but the Chiefs could be a candidate for quick improvement and that matchup will also be a second straight road game for the Browns.
Cleveland will travel very few miles this season which could boost the chances of improving the season road record as the Browns won’t play a game outside of the Central or Eastern Time zones. Another edge the Browns may have in the schedule is that there is an opportunity for Cleveland to get off to a strong start this season with four of the first six games at home and three of those home games coming against fellow losing teams from 2012. A strong start could build some confidence for this team and the Browns won the home meetings with both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati last season as they may be able to take another step towards closing the gap in the division with the top three teams.
The Browns were just 5-11 last season but they were only outscored by just over four points per game on average for the season and the defense was respectable allowing 23 points per game. Cleveland has such a tough road schedule this season that major improvement seems unlikely but the Browns could produce a strong record at home with most of the favorable matchups coming in Cleveland. Getting into playoff position seems like a long shot but the Browns could be a team that sees a slight improvement and could even flirt with a .500 record should things fall favorably with the schedule being a factor in the improvement.
Cleveland Browns 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .492
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (two home, five away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 3,990
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
Primetime Games: 1 (one Thursday)
Pittsburgh Steelers: After a disappointing and injury filled 2012 season the Steelers seem like an appealing candidate for a bounce back season. Pittsburgh had one of the best defensive teams in the NFL last season but managed to go just 8-8 on the season, missing the playoffs and sliding into the third place slot in this division. Getting to play Tennessee and Oakland in the 3rd place draw is favorable and the Steelers will only play seven true road games with a trip to London in Week 4. Pittsburgh will play most of its toughest games on the road with a home schedule that only features two playoff teams, the two teams that made the postseason from the AFC North last season. Pittsburgh faces a slate that features the same 2012 winning percentage as Cleveland’s 4th place schedule which could make Pittsburgh a candidate to rise to the top of this division. Pittsburgh did lose three times at home last season but this is also a team that historically has been able to win on the road with some success as well.
Pittsburgh will have several very tough road matchups and the road games at New England and at Baltimore will both come in the second of back-to-back road games. Pittsburgh does close with three of the final four games of the season at home which could help a late playoff push if needed though a challenging
Week 16 game at Green Bay is ahead and that game follows up a possible Sunday night tilt with the Bengals. The road game at Baltimore is not only the second of back-to-back road games it comes on the heels of a division game with the Browns and will be on a short week with a Thursday night time slot so the Steelers might have a hard time improving on their 3-3 division mark from last season as several division games come in difficult spots on the schedule.
Pittsburgh is a team that could make a rise in the standings with improved health but there are some pieces missing from the great Steelers teams of years past. Another season teetering right on the edge of the playoffs either way is likely the result in 2013 again with the challenging road schedule ahead although this could again be a division where 10-6 is good enough to take the top spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .492
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 7 (two home, four away, one neutral)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,585 (Includes 3,725 to London)
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 4 (one Thursday, two Sunday night, one Monday)
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-20-13 08:28 AM |
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CNOTES
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NFC East Outlook
May 14, 2013
The NFL draft gets all the attention in the spring, but the recent release of the 2013 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC East this season. This group of teams will be featured heavily in primetime games as usual and another tight division race could be in store. This division has seen all four teams win a division title in the last four years and another change at the top is likely this year.
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have not had a winning season since winning the NFC East in 2009 and after back-to-back 8-8 seasons in the first two years under Jason Garrett, the stakes will be high this season. Dallas will face long travel as usual this season, playing in a division with no nearby geographical rivals, but overall the Cowboys have to like how the slate has lined up this season. The East teams will have to play a strong group of NFC North squads, but drawing the AFC West should be an advantage compared with the rest of the conference. Based on win percentage from last season, Dallas will actually draw the weakest schedule in the NFC East, but none of the four teams will play a slate that collectively features a winning record from 2012. Dallas only plays three teams outside of the division that made the playoffs last season and all three of those games will be at home.
Only once will the Cowboys have to play back-to-back road games and Dallas gets a late-season bye week which could help with some of the tougher games in the final weeks. Dallas has a bye week prior to a huge game with the Giants, while New York will play Sunday night with the Packers to set up a favorable situation for the Cowboys for that game and most of the divisional match-ups will line up somewhat favorably. There are certainly some tough games ahead, but there are many winnable road games although there is a bit of an advantage to the third-place slate with St. Louis and New Orleans on the schedule. Dallas has the slate it needs to break through with a winning season, but like last year, this division could be tightly contested and it will be difficult for a Wild Card to emerge from this group. Dallas was just 4-4 at home last season and that is a mark that needs to improve for the 2013 season to go better than the past two years.
Dallas Cowboys 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .480
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (four home, one away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,060
Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
Primetime Games: 5 (one Thanksgiving, Three Sunday Night, one Monday)
New York Giants: The Giants went from Super Bowl champions to missing out on the playoffs with a very inconsistent 2012 season. At times, New York looked like one of the elite teams in the NFL, but the Giants lost to several marginal opponents as well. New York finished +85 in point differential last season for by far the best mark in this division and New York will be a candidate for a rebound season. Finishing second in this division instead of first leaves Atlanta and San Francisco off the schedule and the games with Seattle, Green Bay, Denver, and Minnesota will all be at home. The Giants play six games against 2012 playoff teams, but only the division game at Washington is away from home as all of the toughest games will be at the Meadowlands. Given the recent track record with the Giants often performing better away from home, that may not be a great thing, but New York was 6-2 in home games last season and just 3-5 on the road.
New York opens the season with three of the first four games on the road and this team will feature some late night travel with three Sunday night games lined up. The Giants will log some miles with a notable game out in San Diego late in the season that might be taxing as it will be a second straight road game, but New York also catches some breaks, getting Minnesota on a Monday night after playing the previous Thursday, essentially getting almost a second bye week in that situation. This is a Giants team that scored at least 35 points six times last season and the scoring potential of this squad is near the top of the league. New York was 8-4 against NFC teams last season as the Giants struggled playing the AFC North last season and getting games with the AFC West is a break this year, especially with the Denver meeting coming at home. While New York took a lot of heat for its defense last season, the Giants allowed the fewest points in this division last season and this is a team that was not far away from the playoffs and will be a threat to rise back to an elite level this year.
New York Giants 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .480
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 6 (five home, one away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 7,999
Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
Primetime Games: 5 (one Thursday, three Sunday night, one Monday)
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are coming off a 4-12 season, but with Chip Kelly moving to the NFL, Philadelphia will be an intriguing team to watch this season. This has been among the most disappointing teams in the NFL the past two seasons, but there is talent on this squad and there will be opportunities to improve on an ugly 2-10 record in NFC games and a 1-5 mark in division games. Despite being the fourth place team in this division, the Eagles will be saddled with one of the tougher slates based on getting most of the toughest games on the road. Philadelphia opens with four of the first six games of the season away from home and they will have to play a dreaded set of three straight road games early in the year. Travel to Denver and Tampa Bay is involved in that set with a short trip to New York in the middle. The benefit of having a tough road schedule is that the Eagles will only play one home game all season against a team that made the playoffs the previous year and with the fourth place slate drawing Arizona and Tampa Bay is certainly better than the alternatives.
The Eagles do have to play in Oakland and Green Bay in back-to-back weeks for more long travel, but four of the final six games of the season will be at home. The bye week is in Week 12 comes in the last possible week and a late bye week may not be favorable for a team in transition. The Eagles also will play all three divisional home games in the span of five weeks in the middle of the season, which could be a challenging emotional stretch of games. Philadelphia also has a very tough early season schedule and for a team with a new offensive scheme and a lot of new players in key spots that could lead to another rough start to the season. The Eagles certainly are capable of improving on the 4-12 mark from last season, but a big jump to playoff contention is probably a reach with a schedule that is challenging. There are no easy road games on this slate and this is an Eagles team that went just 2-6 at home last season.
Philadelphia Eagles 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .496
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (one home, four away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,564
Back-to-Back road game sets: 3 (including one back-to-back-to-back set)
Primetime Games: 2 (one Thursday, one Monday)
Washington Redskins: The Redskins were a great story last season led by Robert Griffin III, who as a rookie took this team to playoffs with a division title. Washington paid a price for the success, however, with Griffin needing major surgery and his health is certainly a question mark entering the season. Washington was only +48 in point differential last season despite being 10-6 and the Redskins have to play a first place schedule which means games with Atlanta and San Francisco in addition to the tough draw with the NFC North. Washington has to play the two NFC North playoff teams from last season on the road as well as traveling to Atlanta. Washington has two western trips going to Oakland and Denver this season and overall there is a lot of travel involved on this slate. Washington does get to play the Eagles in Week 1, which might be in advantage with Philadelphia in a transitional year, but a tough early game at Green Bay waits in Week 2. Washington will have an early Week 5 bye, which may not be ideal for a team that was feeling the wear and tear of the season by the time the playoffs came around last year. Washington is drawing five primetime games this season and two Monday night games will create short weeks before critical home games with Chicago and New York.
The Redskins also close the season with two very tough road games with games at Atlanta and at New York in the final three weeks. Washington has some opportunities on the schedule early in the year with five of the first six games of the season against teams that did not make the playoffs last year, but Washington draws a road game at Denver in the AFC West draw and overall this looks like the toughest slate in this division. While Washington made great strides last season, this is a team that could be in line for a fall back to the pack after winning several close games last year and benefiting from a fourth place schedule to make that jump. If Griffin has trouble staying on the field it could even turn into a severe fall for the Redskins.
Washington Redskins 2013 Schedule Numbers:
2013 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .498
Games vs. 2012 Playoff Teams: 5 (one home, four away)
Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,888
Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
Primetime Games: 5 (one Thursday, two Sunday night, two Monday)
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-20-13 08:30 AM |
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CNOTES
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CFL
Dunkel
Montreal at Calgary
The Stampeders look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games in July. Calgary is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-7). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.
SATURDAY, JULY 20
Game 423-424: Montreal at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 109.531; Calgary 122.495
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 13; 48
Vegas Line: Calgary by 7; 52
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-7); Under
Game 425-426: Edmonton at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 106.521; BC 120.171
Dunkel Line: BC by 13 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: BC by 8 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: BC (-8 1/2); Under
SUNDAY, JULY 21
Game 427-428: Hamilton at Saskatchewan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 112.968; Saskatchewan 116.906
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 4; 60
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 6; 57
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+6); Over
CFL
Long Sheet
Week 4
Saturday, July 20
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MONTREAL (1 - 2) at CALGARY (2 - 1) - 7/20/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-0 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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EDMONTON (1 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (2 - 1) - 7/20/2013, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 7-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Sunday, July 21
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HAMILTON (1 - 2) at SASKATCHEWAN (3 - 0) - 7/21/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 47-25 ATS (+19.5 Units) in July games since 1996.
HAMILTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 4
Montreal (1-2) @ Calgary (2-1)-- Stampeders (+2) won 22-14 in Montreal last week, their fourth win in last five series games; Calgary outgained Alouettes by 118 yards despite six Montreal sacks. Five of last seven series games went over total. Road team won all three Montreal games; Als scored 11-14 points in home losses last two weeks, with both games staying under- they scored 38 in only win- they've been outscored in second half in every game so far. Calgary has been outscored 55-22 in second half of games. Six of last eight series games went over the total.
Edmonton (1-2) @ BCLions (2-1)--Hard to tell much about Eskimos, since their last two games were played in monsoons. Lions won seven of last eight games against Edmonton; under is 8-4 in last twelve series games; BC (-3.5) won 17-3 in Edmonton last week, with Edmonton getting shut out in second half. Lions allowed total of 19 points last two games, after giving up 44 at Calgary in their opener- they ran ball for 160-197 yards last couple of games. Favorites covered four of last six series games, only three of last nine played here. Eskimos had three takeaways in their win; they didn't have any in either loss.
Hamilton (1-2) @ Saskatchewan (3-0)-- TiCats (+3.5) upset Roughriders 35-34 here LY, their first win in Regina in at least a decade, just their third win in last 18 games against the Riders. Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six series games, 3-1-1 in last five played in Regina. Saskatchewan won its first three games, scoring 34.7 ppg, with all three tilts over the total; they've run ball for 173 ypg, and turned it over only once (+4). Hamilton gave up 147.3 rushing yards/game so far; they averaged over 11 yards/pass attempt last week, as they came from behind to beat Winnipeg for their first win this season.
CFL
Week 4
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Trend Report
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Saturday, July 20
7:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. CALGARY
Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing Montreal
10:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of British Columbia's last 7 games when playing at home against Edmonton
British Columbia is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Sunday, July 21
7:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Hamilton is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Hamilton's last 14 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Saskatchewan's last 14 games when playing Hamilton
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CFL
Week 4
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Alouettes at Stampeders: What bettors need to know
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Montreal Alouettes at Calgary Stampeders (-7, 49)
Veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn looked comfortable filling in for injured Calgary Stampeders starter Drew Tate in a 22-14 victory at Montreal last week. Glenn will try to repeat that performance when the Stampeders host the Alouettes on Saturday. Glenn, who started many games last year - including the Grey Cup final - in place of the oft-injured Tate, completed 22-of-28 passes for 268 yards and got help from running back Jon Cornish, who is second in the league with 304 rushing yards.
Montreal veteran quarterback Anthony Calvillo was limited to 205 passing yards as the Alouettes’ struggles on offence continued under new coach Dan Hawkins. Calvillo is completing less than 60 percent of his passes (58.6) for the first time since 2002 and is on pace for his lowest yardage total since 2007. Montreal’s bright spot is its defence, which recorded six sacks against Calgary last week and is led by linebacker Chip Cox, who is tied for the league lead in tackles with 24.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, TSN
ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (1-2, 1-2 ATS): Veteran offensive lineman Scott Flory is out for the rest of the season after suffering a torn bicep, weakening the already-questionable pass protection in front of Calvillo. Flory, a nine-time CFL all-star, is joined on the sidelines by guard Andrew Woodruff, who suffered a concussion last week. Montreal safety Kyries Hebert - nicknamed “Angry Bird” in reference to the team’s logo, the popular video game and his hard, high-flying hits - is tied with Stampeders defensive lineman Charleston Hughes for second in the league with four sacks.
ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): Brad Sinopoli made the transition from quarterback to receiver look easy last week, catching five passes for 81 yards in his debut, including a highlight-reel, one-handed grab in the third quarter. Sinopoli was added to the roster after Tate got hurt and was called on to start when wide receiver Maurice Price sat out with soreness in his knee. Defensive back Keon Raymond led Calgary with six tackles in his season debut after missing two games with an ankle injury.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Calgary.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Alouettes are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Calgary.
* Alouettes are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Stampeders K Rene Paredes was named Special Teams Player of the Week after converting 5-of-5 field goal attempts in Week 3 to stretch his streak to 25 consecutive field goals. The CFL record is 30.
2. Montreal released RB Chris Jennings, who had eight carries for 29 yards in Week 1 but did not play following the return of RB Brandon Whitaker from an ACL injury.
3. The Alouettes, who have lost two straight since opening the season with a victory, have not recorded three straight regular-season losses since the end of the 2011 campaign.
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CFL
Week 4
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Eskimos at Lions: What bettors need to know
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Edmonton Eskimos at B.C. Lions (-9, 47.5)
The Edmonton Eskimos will not have to worry about rain this week. After playing the past two weeks in downpours, the Eskimos visit the BC Lions on Saturday at BC Place, which has a retractable roof. The Lions held the Eskimos to three points in wet conditions at Edmonton last week - something quarterback Mike Reilly and the rest of the Eskimos offense would like to remedy in the rematch against one of the league’s deeper defenses.
BC’s defense held strong in its first week without linebacker Adam Bighill, who is expected to miss at least one more week with an ankle injury. The Lions were especially strong defending the run in the last two weeks, surrendering 115 yards on the ground following a rough Week 1 in which they gave up 200. BC quarterback Travis Lulay appeared to enjoy the rain, rushing for 82 yards last week and tossing two touchdowns in the third quarter to continue his strong start to the season.
TV: 10 p.m. ET, TSN
ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (1-2, 1-2 ATS): Reilly completed 44-of-80 passes for 492 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions in his first three games as Edmonton’s starter. While Reilly could use more help from running back Hugh Charles (177 rushing yards), his game needs to improve if he hopes to retain his first CFL starting job. Edmonton has 39-year-old quarterback Kerry Joseph (27,244 career passing yards) ready to fill in and provide veteran stability, but for a team looking to build for the future, Joseph represents a short-term solution.
ABOUT THE LIONS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): Cornerback Cord Parks is the only defender in the league with two interceptions, including one he returned 45 yards for a touchdown in Week 1. Running back Andrew Harris (292 combined yards) and wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux (206 receiving yards) are Lulay’s favorrite options on offense, while slotback Nick Moore (187 receiving yards) took the place of Geroy Simon in BC’s backfield. Slotback Shawn Gore is expected to play this week after missing a game with a concussion, adding another weapon to Lulay’s arsenal.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in BC.
* Eskimos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Eskimos are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in BC.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Edmonton LB JC Sherritt is tied for the league lead in tackles with 24. Eskimos LB Damaso Munoz is tied for fourth with 18.
2. The Lions, who won their home opener against the Toronto Argonauts in Week 2, were 8-1 at home last year.
3. Eskimos star SB Fred Stamps, who was a last-minute scratch in Week 3 with a leg injury, is questionable for Saturday.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-20-13 03:39 PM |
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wildcat76
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Comic-Con fans showed their love for a serial killer Thursday as longtime favorite Dexter made its final appearance at the fan convention.
The Showtime drama with one of TV's most unusual protagonists finished shooting its final season last week and the finale will run in September.
The panel was mostly laughs, but there were a few tears, as actors discussed the impending end.
Michael C. Hall, who plays Dexter Morgan, a blood-spatter expert with a gruesome sideline, said the ending will sink in about when it would have been time to return to shoot a new season.
"Our conscious minds are aware that it's over. Our bodies, five months from now, will start knocking on the door, wondering why we're not doing Dexter again," he said.
Clyde Phillips, who ran the show's production in its early seasons, recalled Dexter's growth in prominence at Comic-Con, where it occupied the convention center's biggest room Thursday. "The first time we were in this little room. Now, we're in the room that Iron Man gets."
The large panel featured actors whose characters had died during the show's run, including Julie Benz, Erik King and Lauren Velez. John Lithgow, who did a famed turn as The Trinity Killer, paid tribute via taped video.
"I wish I could be with you today but, as you know, I'm dead," he said, referring to his character's demise.
Hall said he took a number of mementos from the set, including Dexter's watch, his lanyard with his I.D. and a nine-foot piece of railing outside Dexter's apartment that he plans to put his his backyard.
He wanted to pick up some blood-spatter images in Dexter's laboratory, but someone grabbed them before him. Co-star Jennifer Carpenter's body language suggested she was the culprit, but she wouldn't confess to specifics.
"I took a lot," she said gleefully. "It was fun."
When Hall was asked what he does to get into character, he answered a different question, one that may have more resonance as the role fades into the past.
"I think I need to focus on some rituals to get out of character," he said.
With time left for more mayhem as the finale approaches, Hall recalled how his previous series ended its run.
"At the end of Six Feet Under, we all get to die," he said. "That was nice."
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07-20-13 03:45 PM |
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wildcat76
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Now officially known as Gates and Sons Bar-B-Q, this family owned business has grown from a single restaurant in 1946 (the original location no longer exists) to half a dozen around Kansas City. A world epicenter of excellent slow smoked barbecue, KC has two homegrown local chains of immense repute, Gates and the even more famous Arthur Bryant's, but having been to KC several times and having eaten at both, I can state that Gates is the hidden gem in this rivalry. I'm a Gates guy.
Gates' locations vary widely in appearance, from large standalone eateries to simple strip mall storefronts, but all have the signature red roof and the Gates logo prominently displayed, featuring a dapper man in tuxedo and top hat carrying a bag of takeout. Inside, what sets them apart is the menu, vast for a BBQ joint. Several locals I asked specifically recommend the strip mall location on 12th and Brooklyn, which features a large coffee-shop styled dining room of booths and tables, as well an attached but separated 50's-style bar/cocktail lounge. You order at a cafeteria-style counter where a plethora of dishes of sides and specials are on display, and then your food is brought to the table, served on black plastic oval plates and plastic trays with forks only and paper napkins.
GREAT AMERICAN BITES: Award-winning Kansas City BBQ at Oklahoma Joe's
GREAT AMERICAN BITES: Prime pork at Memphis' Bar-B-Q Shop
It's an inviting atmosphere -- on my last visit I was surrounded by professionals on lunch break, a three generation family gathering, and a kid's birthday party. The counter ordering process hints of mass-production or institutional cuisine, but this could not be farther from the truth. The staff at Gates is unerringly friendly and helpful, and it's the kind of place where those not steeped in all things 'cue will still feel right at home and be comfortable asking questions. Our waitress laid out their signature sauces on the table, explaining each, offered to pack the remains in doggie bags, while throwing in a lot of "hons". Every manager, cook, rib cutter, and sandwich maker employed by Gates attends the in-house "Gates College of Bar-B-Cue Knowledge," with a heavy focus on service, and this smiling, helpful, feel-good ethic comes through in droves. And the food is great.
Reason to visit: Ribs, burnt ends, sauces, baked beans, and for variety, less common smoked meat such as mutton, ham and turkey.
GREAT AMERICAN BITES: The best of Texas Hill Country BBQ
GREAT AMERICAN BITES: Texas ribs and brisket at The Salt Lick
The food: "It's like crack…though I've never actually tried crack," Missouri Congressman and former Kansas City Mayor Emanuel Cleaver II told The Wall Street Journal when describing his affection for Gates BBQ. The cafeteria style setup slings a far wider than typical variety of meats and sides, both of which have their standouts. The ribs are excellent, and like another of my favorites covered in this column, the Salt Lick outside Austin, they employ a less common hybrid method where they are slightly seared close to the live fire then moved away and slow smoked in a more traditional fashion. Most barbecue ribs are overcooked and too tender or mushy, but these are perfect consistency, tender but with enough bite so it doesn't fall apart, and very flavorful.
The use of dry rub is minimal by Kansas City standards, with more reliance on Gates' line of proprietary sauces, which you add at your discretion. The sauces come in varying degrees of heat, but all are tomato and vinegar based, tasty and delicious and not as cloying or sweet as common supermarket sauces. The popularity of the sauces has in large part been responsible of the growth and success of Gates, and they are now widely available in bottles nationwide.
GREAT AMERICAN BITES: Classic barbecue at Memphis' Cozy Corner
GREAT AMERICAN BITES: Best BBQ in Memphis?
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07-20-13 03:48 PM |
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wildcat76
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Spoiler: pro wrestling is fake!
Well, not fake, exactly. Men (and some women) are throwing one another around for real every week, and it for-real hurts. But pro wrestling is indeed predetermined, and we're not telling you anything you don't already know. Wrestling isn't about real competition, it's about spectacle and storytelling. (In other words, another spoiler: the ending of every movie you see this summer is also predetermined before you walk into the theater.) The art is in the showmanship, the performance of the story.
But what happens if we already know what's going to happen? That certainly seems to be the case over at Reddit's r/SquaredCircle forum, where a poster by the name of Dolphins1925 has been leaking the results of match after match ... and he's been right, every single time, 38 of 38 matches, including every single match of this past week's Money in the Bank Pay-Per-View.
So who is Dolphins1925? Insider? Observant worker? He's not tipping his hand: “I am just a WWE fan like everyone else, and I am getting my information from a source who has VERY credible inside information regarding the outcomes (win/losses) of the matches themselves," Dolphin1925 wrote. “Given that this information is out there, we both feel that I should continue to share this information until it garners the attention of WWE.”
Putting aside the dubious logic of drawing the attention of an organization where hitting people with chairs is an accepted method of conflict resolution, the move worked. WWE is taking a close look at exactly what's happening here, but refused to let the mask drop in a characteristic statement: "We may have a modern day Nostradamus on our hands. We might have to monitor these posts in advance of our next pay-per-view to see how good he or she really is."
Gambling on the WWE would seem to be a ridiculous proposition, but it does happen, with bets capped at low limits precisely because something like this could occur. Deadspin points out that each of Dolphins1925's picks, and the eventual victors, were the favorites going into matches, which might suggest that bookmakers have an informational edge as well.
WWE prizes secrecy, and you've got to figure that there will be some attempt to unmask either Dolphins1925 or the leaker, if in fact they're two separate people. And it'll probably end in a cage match, which is how all disputes should be resolved.
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07-20-13 03:49 PM |
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CNOTES
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2013 NFL training camp preview: New Orleans Saints
July 3, 2013 4:07 PM ET
In a season rocked by Bountygate fallout, the Saints finished 7-9 in 2012. In a season rocked by Bountygate fallout, the Saints finished 7-9 in 2012.
The Saints have their coach back. After a year banished by the league for his role in "Bountygate," Sean Payton is back on the sidelines.
He just might be the biggest acquisition in the NFL this year. Payton is the NFL's best play-caller, an aggressive, cocky coach who isn't afraid to take chances. Without him last year, the Saints seemed rudderless. Now Payton is back, refreshed and ready to get back to trying to win a Super Bowl.
Key changes
The defense will be different as well. Rob Ryan takes over for Steve Spagnuolo and will implement a 3-4 style, and a defense with a swagger. The only problem is that Ryan's defense requires good pass rushers off the edge and there is none that stand out on the Saints roster. Payton and Ryan will certainly amp up the attitude on the field, and at the team facility. That should help get them back to competing for the division title.
The Saints will still be a pass-first team with Drew Brees running the show, and most of the principles are back on offense. They do need to replace left tackle Jermon Bushrod.
The defense will have a lot of new faces starting, including free agent corner Keenan Lewis and rookie first-round pick Kenny Vaccaro at safety. The secondary really struggled in 2012, so those two could play huge roles.
Position battles
With Bushrod gone, the left tackle job will come down to Charles Brown and rookie Terron Armstead and former first-round pick Jason Smith. Brown has been somewhat of a disappointment since being a second-round pick three years ago and Armstead is from tiny Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Smith has impressed in his work with the team. He busted out for the Rams as a high first-round pick, but he has some ability.
Vaccaro will get on the field somewhere. So does he beat out Malcolm Jenkins or Roman Harper? My guess is that it will be Harper, who struggles in coverage. In Jenkins and Vaccaro, the Saints would have two rangy safeties.
Veterans Jonathan Vilma and David Hawthorne are expected to battle for one inside linebacker spot. Both battled injuries last season and Vilma had to deal with the fallout from his role in Bountygate.
New schemes
The change to the 3-4 will make for a much more aggressive approach to playing defense. Ryan has sometimes over-complicated things, which can put his defenders in some bad positions. But the Saints play with the lead a lot, which could play right into his aggressive style. Look for more attacking with linebackers and secondary people on blitzes.
Bubble watch
Even though both Will Smith and Harper took pay cuts, they are by no means assured a spot on the roster. They have to show something in camp. They aren't the type of players who go from starter to bench player. They would likely go from starter to getting cut.
Unheard-of-guy to watch
Second-year defensive tackle/end Akiem Hicks flashed some talent as a raw rookie in 2012. He has good size and is a powerful man who should play a huge role in the Saints trying to improve their run defense.
Biggest concern
It has to be the pass rush. Ryan's defense is keyed by the outside rushers and the Saints have already lost Victor Butler, who was expected to be a big part of the pass rush, to a season-ending knee injury suffered in OTAs. That means Junior Galette and Martez Wilson have to come up big as pass rushers.
Left tackle is also a big concern, no matter who starts. But the thing with Brees is that he is one of the best at feeling the pressure, so that will help whoever starts.
Something to prove
It's Payton. He has to show that the year off was good for him. He has changed his body and seems to be a changed man. He has to show that the year off is a good thing, and not something that will hurt the team.
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07-24-13 05:16 AM |
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CNOTES
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2013 NFL training camp preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
July 3, 2013 1:33 PM ET
Tampa Bay finished 2012 at 7-9, tied with the division-rival Panthers and Saints. Tampa Bay finished 2012 at 7-9, tied with the division-rival Panthers and Saints.
When Greg Schiano took over as coach of the Bucs last year, he instilled a culture of discipline and structure, something that was badly needed. But a young coach who has the rules and discipline he has must be careful that he doesn't continue to push too much. He might need to lax some of the things he did last year, even if he seems to have this team headed in the right direction.
The big issue now is quarterback Josh Freeman. He threw for team highs in touchdowns and yards last season, but he and Schiano don't exactly have a warm, fuzzy relationship. The team has not signed Freeman to a new deal, even though he's in the final year of his contract, which is telling. Freeman could be on a one-and-done year, especially with Mike Glennon being drafted in the third round.
Key changes
The Bucs spent big in free agency in 2012, but their big addition this year was a trade to land corner Darrelle Revis from the Jets. It's a risky move since Revis is coming off an ACL injury, but if he is healthy the Bucs will have a top-level secondary, especially with the free-agent addition of safety Dashon Goldson from San Francisco. But coming off an ACL, thinking Revis will simply be the same -- which was the best cover player in the league -- is just an assumption.
The Bucs also traded to get former first-round pick Gabe Carimi for their offensive line. He will add some depth.
One major staff change is John McNulty coming over as quarterbacks coach from Arizona. Schiano wanted to hire McNulty as offensive coordinator when he took the job, but the Cardinals declined his request to leave last year. So when the Arizona staff was fired, Schiano brought him in as quarterbacks coach. But there are some who think that could mean trouble for current offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan down the road. Is McNulty the next coordinator?
Position battles
Roy Miller was a big part of the Bucs' top-rated run defense in 2012, but he is now in Jacksonville. That means a battle to start will be waged by fourth-round pick Akeem Spence, Gary Gibson and Derek Landri. My gut is that Spence will find the way to win that job.
The battle for the strong-side linebacker spot will be fought by a handful of players including Dekoda Watson, Adam Hayward, Jonathan Casillas and Najee Goode. Quincy Black, who was the starter there, had to retire for medical reasons. Goode is a player who can run, which the Bucs love.
Bubble watch
Myron Lewis, a fourth-year corner from Vanderbilt, who looks the part but never has played to the expectations, could be the odd-man out in the secondary with the addition of Revis and Banks.
Unheard of Guy to Watch
Get to know Spence. He has a chance to be a special player. I was shocked that he lasted until the fourth round. Playing next to Gerald McCoy, he should get a lot of single blocks. Spence could be this draft's Geno Atkins. High praise for sure, but he is talented.
Biggest concerns
Who provides the pass rush is a common theme in the NFC South. But the Bucs have two young defensive ends in Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers. They just have to keep them on the field. Clayborn is coming off an ACL injury. His health will be guy to this team improving on defense.
Another key is the growth of Freeman. I think he has the talent to be a quality NFL starter for a long time. But he is not Schiano's guy. And sometimes coaches like their own guy. This is a huge season for Freeman.
Who plays tight end? Is it Luke Stocker or Tom Crabtree, who signed as a free agent from Green Bay? Neither is a great down-the-field threat, which will hurt the Tampa Bay offense. Dallas Clark gave them more in the passing game last season.
Something to prove
It's no doubt it's Freeman. He was the team's first-round pick in 2009 and has some good moments, but the inconsistency has impacted how the team feels about him. If he struggles early, it could go downhill quickly. Schiano has already said that Glennon is a guy he likes a lot.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-24-13 05:19 AM |
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CNOTES
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2013 NFL training camp preview: Carolina Panthers
July 3, 2013 3:01 PM ET
The Panthers have a solid quarterback, and must now complete on the rest of the puzzle. The Panthers have a solid quarterback, and must now complete on the rest of the puzzle.
Former offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski is the new head coach in Cleveland, which means quarterbacks coach Mike Shula takes over running the offense. Expect a more conventional approach on offense with Shula.
He will try and keep quarterback Cam Newton in the pocket more, which is the right thing to do. Newton has grown as a passer and he needs to be able to do more of it. Even as big as he is, he needs to be more of a pocket passer. He's more than capable of that.
Key changes
All 11 starters return on offense, which helps. To help liven up the passing game, the Panthers did sign veteran receivers Ted Ginn Jr. and Domenik Hixon as free agents. They will battle for the No. 3 receiver spot. Most of the new player additions will be on defense. First-round pick Star Lotulelei will be an immediate starter at defensive tackle, a position that really hurt the Panthers last year. In the secondary, the Panthers signed a group of veterans in corners D.J. Moore and Drayton Florence and safety Mike Mitchell. The pass defense has to be better, especially since they have such good edge rushers.
Position battles
The battles to see who starts at corner should rage all through training camp. Florence and Moore will be in the mix along with Captain Munnerlyn and Josh Norman, a second-year player the Panthers really like. It isn't a strong position -- no matter who wins the jobs.
The starting running back job will again be up for grabs in a fight between Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Both are overpaid for what they've given the team, but one has to start. Both have ability, but their numbers aren't as good as their paychecks.
Look for second-round pick Kawann Short to push Dwan Edwards for the starting job next to Lotulelei. Short is a powerful player with a lot of potential.
New schemes
A more conventional offense will mean less of the read-option for Newton, which makes sense. It's time for him to play in the pocket. Look for more push to throw the ball down the field and get away from all the gimmicky stuff.
Bubble watch
Safety Haruki Nakamura was a 13-game starter in 2012, but he lacks the range that teams need from their safeties nowadays. With the addition of some younger players, he could go from starter to off the roster, although he can help on special teams.
Unheard-of-guy to watch
Robert Lester was a starter on those good Alabama defenses that keyed their National Championships. But he was not drafted. He doesn't have great speed, which hurt. But he has done a decent job so far for the Panthers and could be in the mix to battle for the starting safety job opposite Charles Godfrey.
Biggest concerns
Who plays corner? Chris Gamble retired, which leaves an open competition heading to camp. Whoever starts has to be better than what was on the field last season. With two good rush ends in Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson, the secondary doesn't need to be great -- just better.
Can they transition to a more pass-heavy offense under Shula? I think they can. Newton has the tools and they have some good weapons outside. They do need a third receiver to step up, which is why Hixon could be key. Also keep an eye on Joe Adams.
Something to prove
Veteran linebacker Jon Beason has been plagued by injuries, playing just five games the past two seasons. When he's on the field, he's a heck of player. But he has to stay there. He has to show that the injury bug is behind him. He's had three surgeries in 17 months. That's a lot of overcome.
The Panthers regressed in 2012, but look for this team to be better in 2013 if they can improve on the defensive side of the ball. Newton could be ready for a huge season.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-24-13 05:22 AM |
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2013 NFL training camp preview: New Orleans Saints
July 3, 2013 4:07 PM ET
In a season rocked by Bountygate fallout, the Saints finished 7-9 in 2012. In a season rocked by Bountygate fallout, the Saints finished 7-9 in 2012.
The Saints have their coach back. After a year banished by the league for his role in "Bountygate," Sean Payton is back on the sidelines.
He just might be the biggest acquisition in the NFL this year. Payton is the NFL's best play-caller, an aggressive, cocky coach who isn't afraid to take chances. Without him last year, the Saints seemed rudderless. Now Payton is back, refreshed and ready to get back to trying to win a Super Bowl.
Key changes
The defense will be different as well. Rob Ryan takes over for Steve Spagnuolo and will implement a 3-4 style, and a defense with a swagger. The only problem is that Ryan's defense requires good pass rushers off the edge and there is none that stand out on the Saints roster. Payton and Ryan will certainly amp up the attitude on the field, and at the team facility. That should help get them back to competing for the division title.
The Saints will still be a pass-first team with Drew Brees running the show, and most of the principles are back on offense. They do need to replace left tackle Jermon Bushrod.
The defense will have a lot of new faces starting, including free agent corner Keenan Lewis and rookie first-round pick Kenny Vaccaro at safety. The secondary really struggled in 2012, so those two could play huge roles.
Position battles
With Bushrod gone, the left tackle job will come down to Charles Brown and rookie Terron Armstead and former first-round pick Jason Smith. Brown has been somewhat of a disappointment since being a second-round pick three years ago and Armstead is from tiny Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Smith has impressed in his work with the team. He busted out for the Rams as a high first-round pick, but he has some ability.
Vaccaro will get on the field somewhere. So does he beat out Malcolm Jenkins or Roman Harper? My guess is that it will be Harper, who struggles in coverage. In Jenkins and Vaccaro, the Saints would have two rangy safeties.
Veterans Jonathan Vilma and David Hawthorne are expected to battle for one inside linebacker spot. Both battled injuries last season and Vilma had to deal with the fallout from his role in Bountygate.
New schemes
The change to the 3-4 will make for a much more aggressive approach to playing defense. Ryan has sometimes over-complicated things, which can put his defenders in some bad positions. But the Saints play with the lead a lot, which could play right into his aggressive style. Look for more attacking with linebackers and secondary people on blitzes.
Bubble watch
Even though both Will Smith and Harper took pay cuts, they are by no means assured a spot on the roster. They have to show something in camp. They aren't the type of players who go from starter to bench player. They would likely go from starter to getting cut.
Unheard-of-guy to watch
Second-year defensive tackle/end Akiem Hicks flashed some talent as a raw rookie in 2012. He has good size and is a powerful man who should play a huge role in the Saints trying to improve their run defense.
Biggest concern
It has to be the pass rush. Ryan's defense is keyed by the outside rushers and the Saints have already lost Victor Butler, who was expected to be a big part of the pass rush, to a season-ending knee injury suffered in OTAs. That means Junior Galette and Martez Wilson have to come up big as pass rushers.
Left tackle is also a big concern, no matter who starts. But the thing with Brees is that he is one of the best at feeling the pressure, so that will help whoever starts.
Something to prove
It's Payton. He has to show that the year off was good for him. He has changed his body and seems to be a changed man. He has to show that the year off is a good thing, and not something that will hurt the team.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-24-13 05:23 AM |
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2013 NFL training camp preview: Atlanta Falcons
July 3, 2013 4:28 PM ET
The reigning AFC South champs could make another playoff run if they improve on defense. The reigning AFC South champs could make another playoff run if they improve on defense.
The Falcons were 10 yards away from a Super Bowl last year, but couldn't get it done in the NFC Championship Game late against San Francisco. But coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan won their first playoff games with the organization to help ease some of the pressure.
The Falcons were the top seed in the NFC, only to lose at home when they blew a big lead against the 49ers.
Key changes
The big change on offense will come with Steven Jackson coming over as a free agent running back to take over for the plodding Michael Turner. The Falcons are excited about Jackson's ability to amp up the running game and be more of a factor in the passing game than Turner was last season. The only other big changes on offense are on the offensive line. Right tackle Tyson Clabo was released, which means second-year player Lamar Holmes or Mike Johnson will step in and start. Holmes is a big, athletic player who has the tools. If he wins the job, Johnson could push Garrett Reynolds at right guard.
Second-year player Peter Konz moves from right guard to center to take over for veteran Todd McClure, who retired. Tight end Tony Gonzalez also said he was retiring after the 2012 season, but he was talked into returning for one more run. The defense, which was improved under first-year coordinator Mike Nolan last season, has replaced defensive end John Abraham with Osi Umenyiora, a signing from the Giants. Umenyiora had just four sacks last season, so he has to be better. First-round corner Desmond Trufant is expected to be an immediate starter, and they need better play from that spot this season. This is still a talented roster, one capable of pushing for a title again.
Position battles
The right side of the offensive line will be a camp battle all the way through. During offseason work, it was Johnson at right tackle and Reynolds at right guard. But I get the impression the Falcons would love to see Holmes win the right tackle job since Johnson is more of a guard.
The nickel corner job will likely be a battle between third-round pick Robert Alford and veteran Robert McClain, who played well in 2012. Alford has a ton of athletic ability, and flashed it during OTAs and minicamp, and the Falcons would love to get on the field. McClain is a fighter who won't go down easily.
The fourth and fifth defensive ends will be a camp battle all summer long. There are a lot of bodies in the mix, and the Falcons hope one or two can emerge as pass-rush threats.
New schemes
Don't expect a lot of change on either side of the ball. The offense, under coordinator Dirk Koetter, was much more aggressive in 2012 than in years past. Koetter likes throwing down the field, which plays to the strength of the team with Matt Ryan and his weapons. Jackson should help the passing game on early downs. He will get most of his action in the passing game, which is a change for that spot. On defense, Nolan is as creative a coordinator as there is in the league. He had to scheme up a lot of things to compensate for some iffy spots on defense. One thing he has to concentrate on more this year is the read-option. The Falcons play a lot of read-option teams in 2013. Also look for more 3-4 looks at times.
Bubble watch
Veteran corner Dominique Franks could be in trouble with the drafting of Trufant and Alford in the third round. Franks has also helped in the return game, but he didn't offer much. For the most part, this is an easy roster to figure out and not a lot of veterans will be in trouble come August.
Unheard-of-guy to watch
The Falcons let Abraham walk in part because they like second-year player Jonathan Massaquoi. He is a pass rusher from Troy who they think can have an impact on passing downs. He isn't big at 265 pounds, but he has good speed off the edge. He is expected to be in the rotation.
Biggest concerns
Even with the signing of Umenyiora and the drafting of two more defensive ends, the pass rush remains the biggest concern. How do they get to the quarterback on a consistent basis with their down four? Nolan loves to blitz, but he also was forced to do more of it than he would have liked last season. That led to some blown coverage in the two playoff games. They had particular trouble with the tight ends. The linebackers have to be better in coverage.
Something to prove
It's Umenyiora. He had double-digit sacks in 2010, but hasn't come close to that type of play the past two seasons. He has to give the Falcons something off the edge. If he can't get it going, the Falcons will have problems defending the pass. The Falcons have loved his work this offseason. He was the first guy in the workout room most days.
The Falcons were 10 yards from a Super Bowl, but you'd never know it by the preseason hype. Don't sleep on this team. They are talented and they have a quarterback who can get them to a Super Bowl. It all depends on the defense. Can it take an even bigger step forward?
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-24-13 05:27 AM |
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2013 CFL.ca Game Notes: A look at Week 5
TORONTO – With the bye weeks looming, the Week 5 will be an important one for teams looking to hit their breaks on a high note.
The action gets underway on Thursday, with the Eskimos traveling to Montreal to take on the Alouettes at Percival Molson Stadium.
On Friday, the red-hot Stampeders head to Winnipeg to face Justin Goltz and the Bombers. Twent-three-and-a-half hours later, the Roughriders invade Guelph, looking to extend their streak to five against the home-town Tiger-Cats.
Finally, a rare Tuesday night battle will see the Lions take on the Argonauts at Rogers Centre.
Equipped with the most up-to-date storylines, roster moves, stats, milestones and trends, the Week 5 CFL.ca Game Notes will provide you with everything you need for the upcoming week of football.
Calgary’s Comeback: In the history of Canadian football dating back to 1907, only one club has ever came back to win from being at least 21 points or 3 touchdowns behind after one quarter – and that was Calgary on July 20, 2013 when they trailed Montreal 24-0 after one quarter and won 38-27. They are one of only two clubs to have ever rallied from being 20 points down after one quarter to win (the other was BC in 2004 at Montreal), and only two have ever scored 24 points in the first quarter and NOT won. Hamilton scored 24 points in the first 15:00 on Oct 22, 1994 and lost to Winnipeg 46-44.
What is the all-time W-L record for teams that scored 20 or more points in the first quarter? Answer: It’s been done 102 times in more than 5,100 games, and those clubs won 91 of them (91-11). The oddity is that in 2013, two clubs have scored at least 20 in the first quarter and have both lost.
Ray and Durant: Ricky Ray’s completion mark of 75.4% is well above the league record held by Dave Dickenson of 74.0% in 2005. Only three quarterbacks have ever finished a season above 70% (Dickenson twice and Anthony Calvillo in 2009).
Darian Durant’s passer rating of 136.9, as well as Ray’s rating of 124.0 and Drew Tate’s clip of 124.5 are also well above the league record held by Dickenson.
Ray set an all-time CFL record last week completing 19 of 20 passes for a 95 per-cent completion rate (min. 20 atts).
Neither Ray nor Durant have thrown an interception to this point – it is the first time in Durant’s career that he has gone four starts in a row without throwing at least one. Ray has gone four games in a row once before but not in the same season.
Chasing Milt: Lions receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux has caught just 12 passes but has racked up an impressive total of 312 yards to rank third in the league. His average currently sits at 26.0 yards per catch and that threatens the league record set by Milt Stegall in 1997 at 26.5 yards (61 for 1,616 yards). Arceneaux leads the CFL with 5 receptions for 30 or more yards and has at least one in each of his four games thus far.
No turnovers Allowed: Saskatchewan has yet to turn the ball over on offence this year and have just one giveaway on a short kickoff and fumble. The CFL has published a highly detailed analysis of offensive possessions since 2008 and in that six-year span this run is the only time any one club went four games in a row without an offensive turnover.
QB Sacks Up: There has been an average of 5.6 sacks per game in 2013 compared to just 4.3 last year. Winnipeg registered only one last week but still leads with 19 and are on pace for 86 which would just edge the CFL record of 85 set by Calgary in 1986.
Clarifying Rene Paredes’ FG Streak: By rule, for a kicked ball to be considered either a legal punt or a field goal attempt, the ball must cross the line of scrimmage. The purpose of the rule is not merely statistical but was put in place in the 1970s to match play on the field. For example, a blocked kick that remains behind the line of scrimmage may be recovered and advanced legally by either team as in a fumble.
However, a ball that crosses the line of scrimmage is subject to downfield rules for no yards and may be recovered legally only by the kicker unless touched by the returning team. A good way to think of the attempt itself is the role of the defence: Through defensive effort they try to “prevent” yards from being gained or attempts from being made as in the example of a sack.
If a passer drops back and is attempting to pass and is sacked, therefore rendering him unable to get off an attempt, it is the same as a FG kicker who gets his kick blocked. So yes, Paredes was of course “kicking” the ball, sa me as Ricky Ray was attempting to pass but both were “prevented” from making a legal attempt by defensive effort. So in the end, “prevent” may well be a better term here than “block”.
Roster Moves:
There plenty of roster moves made this week, primarily in Toronto where the Argos saw major personnel movement.
On the injury front, the Argos might be without QB Ricky Ray, who suffered an undisclosed lower-body injury on in last week’s loss to Winnipeg. While Ray’s status remains up in the air, the Boatmen will be without tailback Chad Kackert for 4-6 weeks. He’ll be replaced by backup tailback Curtis Steele.
Also in Toronto, Brandon Isaac was released on Tuesday. However, Isaac wasn’t on the market too long, as the Tiger-Cats scooped him up on Wednesday.
In Winnipeg, Justin Goltz will make his first career start under centre, as Buck Pierce is still nursing an abdominal injury. Goltz will be without Winnipeg’s top receiver, as Chris Matthews is suffering from a back injury.
Preview: Edmonton at Montreal Wk. 5
Our west in Calgary, the QB situation is still up in the air, but it was made clear on Wednesday that Kevin Glenn will not start regardless if Drew Tate is healthy enough to go due to an elbow injury he suffered against the Alouettes in Week 4. If Tate is still unable to play, Bo Levi Mitchell is expected to get the nod.
Milestone Alert:
Kory Sheets has started the 2013 CFL season in spectacular fashion, leading the Riders to four straight wins to start the year for just the second time in club history. Sheets leads the CFL in yards from scrimmage with 621 and that puts him at 115.3 yards per game. Though just four weeks in, he is on pace for 2,795 yards from scrimmage which would easily eclipse the CFL record first set by Mike Pringle at 2,414 in 1994. He also threatens the league rushing record set by Pringle at 2,065 yards (115 per game) and Sheets’ average of 143 per game is well above that at this point.
Geroy Simon needs just nine receptions to become the third player to reach 1,000 and with 15,825 career yards is just 175 short of becoming the first to reach 16,000. His consecutive streak of at least one catch has reached 174 games.
J.C. Sherritt broke the CFL record for defensive tackles in one season by recording 130 last year. In 2013, he is having another great season (27, on pace for 122) but is only tied for second at this point. Montreal’s Chip Cox has 36 tackles in four games after getting totals of 9, 10 and then 12 last week. Cox is on pace for 162 defensive tackles in 2013 and has led the entire CFL in each of the last two weeks.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-25-13 05:57 AM |
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CFL Betting Notes - Week 5
July 23, 2013
The new CFL season is only four weeks old and the balance of power in the league has already shifted to the West Division with a combined straight up record of 11-5 as opposed to a combined 5-11 record in the East.
Last Friday night, Toronto beat Winnipeg 35-19 as a 3 ½-point road favorite in an East Division matchup but the following day Calgary stormed past Montreal 38-27 as a 7 ½-point home favorite in an inter-divisional showdown. British Columbia went on to hammer Edmonton 31-21 as a nine-point home favorite in this past Saturday’s second game.
Sunday’s game was another lopsided win for the West with Saskatchewan remaining undefeated on the year by posting a 37-0 shutout of Hamilton as a 7 ½-point favorite at home. The West is now a perfect 6-0 SU in inter-division matchups against the East this season.
The following is a brief betting preview for Week 5 of the CFL regular season with the opening pointspread and ‘over/under’ lines provided by TopBet.
Thursday, July 25
Edmonton Eskimos vs. Montreal Alouettes
Point-spread: Montreal -5
Total: 48.5
Edmonton’s loss to BC on Saturday in the back-end of a home-and-home series dropped its overall record to 1-3 both SU and against the spread. Its only win of the year was a 30-20 victory over Hamilton in Week 2 as a seven-point road underdog. The Eskimos have given-up the second most points in the West while scoring the fewest.
The Alouettes continue to struggle on offense as the loss of former head coach Marc Trestman to the NFL could be taking its toll. Montreal has now lost its last three games to fall to 1-3 SU and ATS on the year. The total has stayed UNDER in two of its last three games. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions in the first four games.
Montreal has won eight of the last nine meetings SU and is 7-2 ATS. It is a perfect 3-0 SU in the last three meetings at home including a tight 27-25 victory last October as a five-point favorite. The total ended as a PUSH on a closing line of 52 in that contest after going OVER in the previous two meetings.
ESPN2 will provide national coverage of this game at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Friday, July 26
Calgary Stampeders vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Point-spread: Calgary -4
Total: 56
Calgary is averaging 31.3 points a game which is the second-most in the CFL, but its defense has also allowed an average of 27.3 points in its first four games. The net result is a 3-1 mark both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in three of the four games. Quarterback Drew Tate remains questionable with a lingering arm injury, but Kevin Glenn has done a good job in relief.
The Blue Bombers have some injury concerns of their own with quarterback Buck Pierce listed as ‘doubtful’ with an abdominal strain. Last Friday’s loss to Toronto dropped them to 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in two of their last three games.
The Stampeders bring a seven-game SU winning streak over Winnipeg into this Friday’s matchup. However, they are just 3-5-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Calgary covered the spread in both games last season and the total has gone OVER in five of the last eight meetings in this series.
Saturday, July 27
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -4
Total: 56
The Roughriders will put their four-game winning streak both SU and ATS on the line this Saturday night. This followed a five-game SU losing streak (0-4-1 ATS) to close-out the 2012 season. The total has gone OVER in three of their first four games this season and they lead the CFL in scoring with a total of 151 points (37.8 PPG).
Hamilton is 1-3 SU on the year and it has failed to cover in all four games. It also failed to score a single point in the first game of this home-and-home series this past Sunday after averaging 26.3 points in its first three contests this season. The Tiger-Cats are now the lowest scoring team in the East Division while allowing the most points of any team in the CFL.
Saskatchewan has now won five of the last seven meetings SU and is also 5-2 ATS over the same stretch of games. The total stayed UNDER the 59 ½-point line in last Sunday’s game and it has stayed UNDER in three of the last five meetings between the two. One of the teams in this series has scored 30 points or more in six of the last seven meetings.
Tuesday, July 30
British Columbia Lions vs. Toronto Argonauts
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF
BC will get an extended break into early next week after this past Saturday’s win over Edmonton which should go a long way towards getting a few of its banged-up players off the current injury list. The Lions have won their last three games both SU and ATS after a disappointing 44-32 loss to Calgary on opening day as 3 ½-point road underdogs.
Toronto quarterback Ricky Ray leads the CFL in total passing yards with 1,203 while completing 75.4 percent of his throws. He has also tossed eight touchdowns against zero interceptions. The defending Grey Cup champs are 2-2 SU and ATS on the year with the total going OVER in three of the four games. Unfortunately Ray left last week’s game early with a knee injury and his status is ‘questionable’ for Sunday, which is why there is no early opening number on this matchup. Also injured last week for the Argos was running back Chad Kackert, who is ‘questionable’ as well for Week 5.
BC has won the last six meetings SU including a 24-16 victory on July 4 as a seven-point home favorite. It is 5-1 ATS during this run and the total has stayed UNDER in five of the last seven games. The Lions’ defense has allowed the second-fewest points in the league this season while the Argonauts come in as the highest scoring team in the East.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-25-13 07:52 AM |
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