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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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Champions League, EUROPA Mid Week Soccer

Let's start another full week ahead
GL

Old Post 11-30-20 10:30 PM
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msudogs
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"Sevilla haven’t tasted defeat in their last 7 with English sides (W3-D4), while the Blues have tasted victory in 1 of their past 10 against Spanish sides (W1-D5-L3)"

Old Post 12-01-20 11:28 PM
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Late winners for Chelsea and Sevilla set up dramatic wins for the two clubs last time out and also ensured both sides move through to the last 16 of the Champions League. There is however, still the small matter of top spot in Group E at stake with Chelsea and Sevilla locked on 10-points, Lampard’s team with the edge on goal-difference.

Whereas these two played out a tense, goalless stalemate in the reverse fixture, both can relax a little here with group supremacy the only thing at stake.

Krasnodar and Rennes each sit nine points adrift, with Chelsea and Sevilla tied on 10 points, but Frank Lampard’s men will stay top with a point ahead of the final round of fixtures.

Although both managers may elect to switch things around a bit given qualification is assured, Lampard will want to ensure first place and has a fully fit squad, so there won’t be wholesale changes to his line-up.

Julen Lopetegui is without goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, wingers Suso and Oussama Idrissi, as well as back-up striker Carlos Fernandez, but he should name a fairly strong side too as his team looks to keep momentum.

Lampard clearly learnt a thing or two under Jose Mourinho as a player and so perhaps it’s no surprise that their top of the table meeting on Sunday failed to ignite.

Although it ended a sequence of six straight victories, during which time Chelsea bagged 18 goals, it still leaves them unbeaten in 11 outings since the start of October.

The Blues’ defensive record last term left a lot to be desired, with the 54 league goals they shipped the worst amongst the top half of the table. However, the summer signings of Ben Chillwell, Thiago Silva and Edouard Mendy have improved their resolve.

They’ve now conceded just twice across their past nine appearances, with the partnership between the vastly experienced Silva and Kurt Zouma looing ever more solid, though Antonio Rudiger will likely come in to give one of those two a rest here.

Sevilla approach this fixture in good form as well with five victories on the trot. However, it’s worth noting that they’ve enjoyed a kind fixture list of late, with a pair of encounters against leaky Russian outfit Krasnodar and tussles with bottom-six outfits Osasuna, Celta Vigo and Huesca in La Liga.

They’ve actually conceded at least twice in five of their past six matches, despite the relatively weak opposition, so we’d expect Chelsea to pick up something from this game.

Chelsea haven’t won four Champions League matches in a row since 2012 when they lifted the trophy, but by the same token it’s been 11 years since Sevilla topped a group at this level.

The Spanish side have enjoyed tremendous success in the Europa League, but they’ve never gone unbeaten across their first five group stage matches in Europe’s top tier before.

Something has to give, but Chelsea’s 11-game unbeaten run and fully fit squad suggests they should stand the better chance of picking up the points.

However, Sevilla haven’t tasted defeat in their last seven meetings with English sides (W3-D4), while the Blues have only tasted victory in one of their past 10 against Spanish sides (W1-D5-L3).

The first seven of those were against either Barcelona or Atletico Madrid however, as they took four points from Valencia in last season’s group stages.

Sevilla rarely lose at home, doing so on just three occasions since the start of last season as they drew hosting the likes of Barcelona and Atletico last term, while going down 1-0 to Real Madrid.

They’re yet to face any of those sides at the Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan this season, while Chelsea have drawn encounters with Spurs (twice), Man Utd and Sevilla themselves in the current campaign, as their other top test saw them beaten by Liverpool after going down to 10 men. With that in mind, the draw feels like an inevitable outcome here.

Old Post 12-02-20 08:38 AM
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Manchester United come into their Champions League group stage five clash with PSG top of Group H and just a-point away from securing qualification through to the last 16. There is also still the small matter of nailing down top spot in the group which United can do with the win on Wednesday night.

United are in the driving seat as they look to claim a double over PSG, following on from previous success over the Parisians, with RB Leipzig also very much in the mix for qualification from Group H.

Solskjaer went 3-5-2 in the reverse fixture and it worked a charm as the extra protection helped stifle space for Neymar and Angel Di Maria out wide.

However, Luke Shaw and Axel Tuanzebe are unavailable and so Solskjaer is expected to revert to a back four here. Eric Bailly is rated doubtful and the likes of Phil Jones and Marcos Rojo were left out of United’s Champions League squad, so Solskjaer lacks the numbers to field that system here.

David De Gea may be replaced in goal after being forced off at half-time this weekend too and United’s selection problems don’t end there.

Alex Telles and Donny van de Beek both picked up knocks against the Saints and will need assessing before this clash, while Paul Pogba, Scott McTominay and Anthony Martial are all doubts as well.

The absence of Pogba may be a blessing in disguise, with the French World Cup winner only playing eight minutes across their last four matches as they won them all.

However, Edinson Cavani will be desperate to face his former club following his weekend performance and along with Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes, United will certainly carry a goal threat.

They’ve bagged 11 goals across their current winning run, though with just one clean sheet in six now (against West Brom) there should be chances for both sides here.

PSG certainly pack the necessary weaponry with Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and Angel Di Maria all expected to feature. They’ve found the net in all three of their recent encounters with Man Utd and although both teams to score is understandably on the short side, there could be value backing goals.

The last two head to heads each featured a minimum of three strikes, while four of Man Ut’s last five outings have now breached that threshold, with four goals or more in three of their past four.

Moreover, nine of PSG’s last 11 since start of October have seen Over 2.5 Goals land, with at least four goals in five of these, and given the group standings the visitors aren’t going to be content settling for a mere point here.

However, Thomas Tuchel isn’t without selection problems of his own. Presnel Kimpembe and Idrissa Gueye can return after sitting out matchday four through suspension, though key midfielder Marco Verratti has only just returned from injury and will be hard pushed to last the 90 minutes.

Juan Bernat, Julian Draxler and Thilo Kehrer all remain sidelined, and with PSG just W2-D1-L2 over their past five outings, and showing greater vulnerability this term with three defeats in Ligue 1 already, their hosts look more appetizing to get something from this encounter at the prices.

Old Post 12-02-20 08:44 AM
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Tottenham come into their group stage five Europa League clash with LASK knowing the win will guarantee them qualification and keep them in the hunt to finish top of Group J. Antwerp currently hold top spot on goal-difference and one expects Jose Mourinho will impress on his team to attack over the final two games.

Tottenham still have work to do in Group J with LASK just three points adrift in third, but they won’t lack for confidence after a hugely satisfying week.

Man City and Ludogorets were taken down by a combed 6-0 on home turf, while they registered their fourth clean sheet on the bounce in their top of the table clash at Stamford Bridge at the weekend to retain pole position.

Jose Mourinho’s men are now W12-D4-L1 in all competitions since an opening day defeat to an in-form Everton.

Goals have been easy to come by and although Harry Kane and Heung-min Son will get the night off, neither came off the bench against Ludogorets and only the Korean was utilized as a substitute in the reverse of this fixture.

Admittedly, he did find the net, but that was just adding gloss to the comfortable 2-0 lead established inside the opening half hour.

Tottenham have also sorted out their away form this season and aside from a surprise 1-0 defeat at Antwerp, they’ve won seven of eight unbeaten trips.

They scored at least three times on four occasions, most notably putting six past Man Utd, and with sky-high confidence we’d expect more of the same.

LASK also encountered English opposition in last season’s Europa League, but were soundly beaten by Man Utd in the knockouts.

The went down 5-0 at home in the first leg before a 2-1 defeat in a dead rubber at Old Trafford, with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer fielding second-string sides in both legs.

Mourinho will undoubtedly make numerous changes and trust in his reserves here, just as he’s largely done in previous matches so far.

That’s especially the case with a North London Derby to come at the weekend, while beyond that they still have to face the likes of Liverpool and Leicester this side of Christmas.

However, the squad runs a bit deeper these days and although we’d be put off backing them to win by great margins, they should get the job done.

It also helps them that LASK have a few absentees of their own, most notably joint-top scorer Marko Raguz and centre-back Petar Filipovic.

Old Post 12-03-20 08:22 AM
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With four wins from four in the Europa League, Arsenal come into their group stage five clash with Rapid Vienna already through to the next round and assured of finishing top of Group B.

For all of Arsenal’s troubles domestically they still sit at the head of this Europa League Group B with maximum points after Gameweek 4. Mikel Arteta has put his faith in the younger players to produce the results, and they have repaid him with their current position.

Rapid Vienna, on the other hand, have hit their worst form of their season with just one win from their last four outings across all competitions.

That one victory came against by far the weakest opponent Dundalk in this tournament, as they drew with both Salzburg and Austria Wien at home, and lost on the road at Ried.

That means they’ve now lost two of their last three when visiting opposition dating back to their defeat at Molde in late October, and as a result LASK have leapfroged them into second place domestically.

The Gunners have struggles of their own down in the bottom half of the Premier League table, having gone W4-D1-L5 from their 10 outings so far, while they only scored twice from their last six such matches.

However, that form hasn’t transferred over to the European stage against the weaker outfits, as they’ve scored at least twice in each of their four in this competition, and three or more in each of the last three, only conceding twice across them.

Indeed, both such home fixtures have resulted in three goal margin wins for Arteta’s men and considering the hosts have also won nine of their 11 European matches at Emirates over the last 24 months by an aggregate scoreline of 27-7, winning by two or more in seven, the younger players look likely to deliver again.

By contrast, the Austrian outfit haven’t had the best of records against the better sides they’ve faced in Europe.

They’ve lost all eight trips to Villarreal (twice), Hamburg, Porto, Leverkusen, Valencia, Athletic Bilbao and Inter dating back to the 2008/09 campaign, failing to score in any and losing by two or more in all but two.

In fact, their two such matches since the start of 2018/19 both saw them lose by four or more and this one could follow suit.

Arteta will be conscious of his North London derby at the weekend though, and he’s unlikely to risk too many of the first team.

That does make us slightly cautious of backing the ‘-2 Goal Handicap’, but at still a healthy price the ‘-1 Handicap’ still holds value for us.

Old Post 12-03-20 08:24 AM
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