Manchester, England, is the location for this week’s UFC 304 Edwards vs. Muhammad PPV event. The fourteen-fight production begins with early prelims on Saturday at 3:15 p.m. PT, prelims start at 5 p.m. PT, and then the main card drops at 7 p.m. PT. These fights transpire in the wee hours of Sunday morning in Jolly Ol’ England, so the crowd should be in ‘rare’ form for these bouts, ten of which feature English combatants.

Leon Edwards (champion) -250 vs. Belal Muhammad +210
Welterweight (170 pounds) Championship

Since these two fought to a no-contest in March 2021, each has performed brilliantly, defeating every challenger faced.

For Muhammad, unrelenting, forward-pressure wrestling is his fight foundation, and he complements that with extreme mental toughness, sheer determination, an improved striking/licking offense, and simple belief.

Since these two first tussled, Muhammad has improved his striking, but as opposed to piecing opponents up, he’s looking to strike only long enough to steal the opponent’s soul by forcing them to battle tooth and nail, second by second and inch by inch for a full twenty-five.

Muhammad believes that his calculated aggressiveness early in the fight will eventually allow him to clasp a hold of them and choke them out with a submission late in the fight.

Champion Edwards will be defending his belt at home. The southpaw is the younger man, the taller man and he’ll also hold reach advantages over Muhammad. Edwards has the ability to thrive anywhere a fight evolves, be it wrestling, grappling, striking, or kicking. His dexterity, his physical advantages, and the people he has competed against all force me to regard Edwards as the legitimate favorite in this fight.

On Muhammad’s side, it’s his focus, his unrelenting nature, and the fact he has been in the cage against Leon already. Muhammad understands exactly what he must do to accomplish this upset, and it begins and ends with sucking the cardio out of the champion and usurping his confidence.

What is intriguing is that almost every other English fighter on this slate is being bet aggressively by the betting public; however, in this main event, Edwards’s price has only moved slightly.

Current lines show respect for Muhammad, yet when I handicap the fight, it all comes down to whether Muhammad forces Edwards to succumb. That’s his path to the championship.

UFC Best Bet: At current pricing, I’ll take Muhammad +210 or better*.

*It won’t hurt to be patient and watch this line because a better price may arise.

Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -215

Tom Aspinall (champion) -355 vs. Curtis Blaydes +290
Heavyweight (265 pounds) Interim Championship

This is a rematch of a July 2022 fight. In it, Aspinall closed at a price of -140 over Blaydes after opening as a dead pick ’em.

Aspinall was injured early in the fight, which began the process of each man earning their way right back to a title shot. It just so happens that the location is Manchester. On Saturday, these two settle who will be the next heavyweight champion after Jon Jones defeats Stipe Miocic, then rides off into the sunset.

Blaydes’ resume is solid. He’s a world-class wrestling talent who has developed a better-than-average power-based strike arsenal into his offense, and that striking comes complete with kicks. His cardio is a strength; he is unbelievably strong, determined, and confident, yet not overly agile or nimble.

Blaydes has competed against the heavyweight elite over several years and surely sees this as his best opportunity to be crowned, but does that mean he’ll win the fight?

Curtis Blaydes has a single shortcoming—a glaring one. Unfortunately, Blaydes has the proverbial glass jaw. This is not to say he can’t take a punch or battle toe-to-toe, but since 2018, his three losses were all to worthy, power-based, legitimate heavyweight talents who, in exchange, were able to blast Blaydes and drop him cheek-first onto the floor.

This is the heavyweight division of the UFC, and trying to hide the inability to take one flush on the face is no secret, especially when the athlete is young, driven, and confident and does not believe he can be stopped despite past results.

I believe Blaydes is playing an extremely dangerous game against this Aspinall kid. I’ll also mention that Blaydes called this fight out.

For Aspinall, it’s simple. He’s smashed each opponent in front of him since these two first fought. Now he gets the opportunity to correct the blemish on his record that was put there after an injury in a fight that lasted 15 seconds.

Aspinall is slightly younger than Blaydes. He’ll be taller, more athletic and the faster man in the cage. Both of these men fight with a full arsenal of skill so it will be interesting to determine where this fight goes and who takes it there.

Blaydes must execute enough forward pressure to put Aspinall on the defensive and take this fight right to him. This strategy gives him his best chance to win. Likely, Aspinall’s agility, speed and precision striking will sooner than later force the more methodical Blaydes into attempting to wrestle. When that transition happens, and I believe it will, this fight will begin to open up like an aged Cabernet. If Blaydes is forced to apply wrestling, he leaves himself exposed to Aspinall’s forte—straight knees, power uppercuts, and leveraged crosses as he rushes inside to engage.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Under -166

Modestus Bukauskas -155 vs. Marcin Prachnio +135
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

These two fighters will each step into the cage on Saturday in must-win situations.

Bukauskas won his first two UFC fights before Vitor Petrino finished him in the second round last November. He is a durable, willing striking based fighter with decent wrestling, but his strike defense needs improvement.

Prachnio is the older fighter at 36, but he’s just as desperate for a win as Bukauskas, which enhances the volatility of this fight. Prachnio is 2-2 in the UFC since 2022. He has competed against worthy competition, and he enters this one off a win.

In my judgment, Prachnio is the more complete striker. He has more innate power than Bukauskas, and he’s been against a higher degree of pedigreed opponents. For that reason, I‘ll declare him a live underdog in a fight that is critical to each man.

Bobby “King” Green (-115) vs Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett (-105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)

Bobby Green is peaking in ability and popularity at age 37. He has won 3 of his last four fights and always puts on a show. He has a strike-first style with a wide karate stance and hands down at his waist. Speed and movement are his defense. His offensive striking can be categorized as fast, precise, and voluminous. He is in rare air in that he has landed 85+ significant strikes in 10 three-round UFC fights. For his 27-fight UFC career, he averages an astounding 6.45 significant strikes landed per minute. He also avoids 62% of his opponent’s significant strike attempts while maintaining a respectable ground game, landing on average 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage and defending 74% of his opponent’s takedown attempts. The slight on his recent record is that two of his three most recent wins were versus fellow old-timers Tony Ferguson and Jim Miller. Versus younger opponents, he landed a spectacular first-round knockout against Grant Dawson but was brutally KO’d against Jalin Turner in December 2023.

Bobby Green is by far the biggest test Paddy Pimblett has faced yet. Pimblett is a social media favorite because he has an entertaining personality and a great sense of humor. He also has an impressive highlight reel with 15 finishes in 21 professional victories. Additionally, he has three respectable defeats, all coming in Cage Warriors versus opponents who eventually made their way over to major MMA organizations. Most of the issues with Paddy don’t come from his losses but instead his victories. He is 5-0 in the UFC versus less than stellar competition. Additionally, he was awarded a decision victory versus Jared Gordon in December 2022, which he probably didn’t deserve (23 of 24 media scorecards at mmadecisions.com had Gordon winning, 11 didn’t even have Pimblett winning a round). On paper things are not great for Pimblett either, his significant strike defense rate is just 41%. He is a plodder and brawler with less-than-ideal head movement.

On paper, Paddy has three things going for him: a 2-inch reach advantage, a nearly full 9 years younger than Green, and a favorable crowd. But when it comes to actual fight metrics and ability, this one isn’t even close. If Green can avoid running into a big shot, he should be able to outclass Paddy until the fight reaches the final bell.

Christian Leroy “CLD” Duncan (-130) vs Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues (+110)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 (+135)

Don’t blink because this fight has the most two-way knockout potential on the card. All three of Duncan’s UFC wins have come via KO in the first two rounds. Five of Rodrigues’s six UFC victories have come via KO. Christian Leroy Duncan is a very highly thought-of prospect with crisp hands and the accompanying power to earn main card billing in just his 5th fight in the organization. He also has great physical tools at 6’2” and a 79” reach. At this point, his biggest liability is the relatively limited MMA skill set he has shown thus far in the octagon. His striking is very good, but to reach the top of this game, you need much more than that.

Fighting Gregory Rodrigues is like fighting a 6’3” fire hydrant with baseball bats for arms. He charges ahead, and eats shots to land harder ones. Generally speaking that has worked for him. Most recently he knocked out Brad Tavares, a guy who went the distance vs current middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis, and former champ Israel Adesanya.

The circumstances around this fight are what make it tough to handicap. Rodrigues is a replacement opponent for Duncan meaning he did not have a full camp prepare for this unique opponent. Duncan has never faced an opponent with Rodrigues’ power, and Rodrigues hasn’t fought a precision fighter quite like Duncan. That said, if this fight were under neutral circumstances, Rodrigues would likely be the favorite. Additionally, Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt, although we never see him use those skills in the cage. He could potentially lean on that experience in a fight where his opponent did not have a full camp to prepare for his full arsenal.