There will be men’s and women’s doubles tournaments, as well as mixed doubles, played at the 2024 Summer Olympics. However, the main attraction for tennis will be the men’s and women’s singles events.

We’ll see two 64-player tournaments to determine who will go home with gold, silver and bronze medals. Both tournaments will follow a best-of-three format, and all sets will be played with traditional seven-point tiebreakers (if necessary). To make matters better, the event will take place at Roland Garros. That means the top players in the world will be competing for their countries on one of the grandest stages in tennis: Court Philippe-Chatrier.

Men’s Tennis

Top Contenders

Carlos Alcaraz (+190)
Novak Djokovic (+275)
Jannik Sinner (+275)

This is the same group of contenders as every big tennis tournament. The new “Big Three” is responsible for the last eight Grand Slam titles. These three are surface-proof and are threats to win every time they step on a tennis court. That won’t be any different in Paris.

Alcaraz, who is representing Spain, won the French Open in June. That was an event played at this very venue, so he’ll come into this thing feeling like it’s his to lose. Alcaraz has the highest clay-court Elo rating of anybody in the men’s game right now, and his game is a perfect match for these conditions. Alcaraz is the fastest player on the planet, so it’s hard to get the ball by him on slower courts. He also has the ability to hit every shot in the book, but he’s especially strong when it comes to utilizing topspin. Combining that with his all-world baseline power and uncanny variety makes it understandable he’s the favorite.

Djokovic has had an up-and-down 2024 season, but he has won three majors at Roland Garros. The 24-time Grand Slam champion also happened to find his game at Wimbledon, looking as sharp as he has all year long. Djokovic might be 37 years old, but he keeps himself in tremendous shape. And his best level is capable of winning on any given day. Djokovic is precise with his serve; he’s one of the best returners of all time, and he’s arguably the most well-rounded baseline player in the history of the sport. Djokovic is also elite at the net. Not only does Djokovic have the game to win gold, but he also has the motivation. Nobody in the history of tennis has a better resume than Djokovic, but he has never won gold for Serbia. He’ll be eager to change that.

Sinner is the world No. 1 and has been the best player in tennis for most of 2024. And while clay-court success has eluded the Italian a bit, he has shown that he is very dangerous on this surface. Sinner nearly beat Alcaraz in the French Open semifinals, but he started to cramp up and really tailed off late in the match. That shouldn’t be much of a concern in best-of-three tennis. Sinner was actually one of the sharpest players on the ATP Tour early in the clay-court season, as he was able to serve through the conditions and bully people from the baseline. Sinner has also expanded his game to include some more spin, drop shots and net play. With that in mind, he’ll be very live to take home the gold here.

Casper Ruud (12-1)

Ruud suffered an early exit at Wimbledon, and people were quick to clown him for that, but he’s a two-time French Open runner-up and loves to play on clay. Ruud has the third-highest raw clay-court Elo rating in the men’s game, and he has won more matches than everybody but Sebastian Baez on this surface over the last 52 weeks. Ruud also had a real shot at making a third French Open final in a row this year, but he was dealing with an illness in his loss to Alexander Zverev in the semis. If he was healthy, he might have won that match. Ruud took the first set and looked like he was going to cruise to a victory.

Ruud’s game is just hard to beat in slower conditions, as he’s a solid server, hits powerful, topspin-heavy shots from the baseline and maneuvers himself around the court at an elite level. So, don’t rule him out when trying to figure out who will win the gold. Ruud just might sneak up on you and take it home for Norway.

Rafael Nadal (10-1)

It’s entirely possible that people will write Nadal off after his opening-round loss to Zverev at the French Open. However, I think Nadal represents the best value on the board in this tournament. The Spaniard skipped Wimbledon to focus solely on clay-court tennis, and he has been doing everything he can to get his body right. Well, if he’s able to avoid a setback, that should do him wonders. As the 14-time French Open champion gets further and further from the hip injury that derailed his 2023 season — and the start of his 2024 season — he should look more like a top-10 player. That said, don’t write off the King of Clay.

Nadal, who won a gold medal in 2008, is 112-4 in his French Open career. He has just been unbeatable in this venue. I know Father Time is coming for the 38-year-old, but Nadal hasn’t demanded much from his body in recent months. It also doesn’t hurt that this is a best-of-three tournament. Physically, he should be able to handle a deep run in a tournament with shorter matches.

Nadal will just need to find a way to keep things together on his serve. He still has an impressive baseline game, where he now goes a bit bigger to find winners because he can’t regularly grind out long rallies anymore. He’s also capable of getting into his opponent’s service games quite frequently. So, if he can rack up holds, he’s going to be as tough of an out as anyone. Nadal is going to give this tournament absolutely everything he has left.

Realistically, the winner will probably come from the group of Alcaraz, Djokovic and Sinner. But I don’t like the odds enough to back any of them in a tournament that could get a little wonky. I’d rather take a shot here.

Paris Olympics Tennis – Men’s Draw Analysis

Quarter 1: A potential second-round meeting between Djokovic and Nadal would be tremendous. This year’s Olympic Games can use a blockbuster matchup like that. However, Nadal does have a tough opening-round meeting with Marton Fucsovics. There’s no guarantee he wins that, even if he does end up playing through this new hamstring injury. The rest of the draw is headlined by Matteo Arnaldi, Arthur Fils and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Arnaldi and Fils will battle in the first round, but both can make runs here. And Tsitsipas is a very dangerous clay-court player. He’s fully capable of winning this quarter if Djokovic doesn’t look sharper than he did at Wimbledon.

Quarter 2: Alexander Zverev’s quarter looks extremely manageable. He’ll face Jaume Munar in the first round, the winner of Tomas Machac and Zhizhen Zhang in Round 2, and then he’s likely looking at a meeting with Nicolas Jarry after that. I don’t see him losing to any of those players, and I also think he’d take care of whoever comes out of the other portion of the quarter. That includes Lorenzo Musetti, Gael Monfils, Jack Draper and Taylor Fritz. Of course, Fritz beat Zverev at Wimbledon. But that was on grass. Zverev is a far superior player on clay.

Quarter 3: The third quarter in Paris feels like Casper Ruud’s to lose. The two-time French Open runner-up could get tested by Francisco Cerundolo or Ugo Humbert in his third match, but I’d like his chances to get by there. He’d then be looking at a meeting with Felix Auger-Aliassime or Daniil Medvedev after that. Both of those matches are extremely winnable for Ruud. He lost to Auger-Aliassime on clay earlier in the year, but that was in the high altitude of Madrid. These conditions suit Ruud a lot better.

Quarter 4: Alcaraz is going to like his draw quite a bit. The back-to-back Grand Slam champion likely won’t be challenged until he sees Alex De Minaur or Tommy Paul in the semifinals. And neither one of those opponents will scare him at this venue. Alcaraz just won a major at Roland Garros and finally looks like he’s ready to take the King of Clay baton from Nadal.

Paris Olympics Tennis – Women’s Draw Analysis

Quarter 1: Swiatek is going to have to play Irina-Camelia Begu, a good clay-court player, in Round 1. She also faces the winner of Nadia Podoroska and Diane Parry in Round 2. Parry could be a tricky opponent. Then, Swiatek is looking at either Linda Noskova or Diana Shnaider in her third match. Those are two really tough opponents. And if that’s not enough, how about Jelena Ostapenko or Daneille Collins after that? Ostapenko is 4-0 against Swiatek in her career. Overall, it’s a nightmare of a draw for Swiatek. But this is the Queen of Clay we’re talking about.

Quarter 2: With no Rybakina in the draw, this part of the bracket is wide open. I’d keep a pretty close eye on Karolina Muchova here. The 2023 French Open runner-up found her game in Palermo last week, so she could be ready to rock here. However, I can also see this being another deep run for Emma Navarro. She’s such a solid all-court player and her draw isn’t terrible. It’ll also be interesting to see what happens with Caroline Garcia. She hasn’t had a good season but steps into Rybakina’s draw and should be eager to perform at a high level in front of a French crowd.

Quarter 3: This is another quarter that can go a ton of different ways. Jasmine Paolini is the top-seeded player here, but she’s going to face talented players every step of the way. I wouldn’t be surprised if the back-to-back Grand Slam runner-up gets bounced somewhat early. The other interesting players in this quarter are Jessica Pegula, Barbora Krejcikova and Mirra Andreeva. I tend to think that Krejcikova is about to play some consistent high-level tennis in singles again. Her confidence is fully back after having won Wimbledon, and I don’t think a deep run can be ruled out here. She’s a former French Open champion and her tricky style of play makes her a terror to face on clay.

Quarter 4: Gauff is second on the odds board to win this tournament. I’m down on her overall on-court ability, as her forehand is a mess. However, the slow courts in Paris do help make up for that by giving her time to set her feet — and the ability to play with some more shape. If she can get by Ajla Tomljanovic in the first round, there’s not much preventing Gauff from reaching the semifinals. However, Maria Sakkari, Clara Burel and Marta Kostyuk are all talented players that can potentially break through and come out of this quarter. Even Yulia Putintseva needs to be taken seriously.

Benjamin Hassan vs. Christopher Eubanks

This is a pretty straightforward play for me. Hassan obviously isn’t a well known player, but Eubanks is 0-5 on clay over the last 52 weeks. The American is also just 1-7 on the dirt in his career. Eubanks’ massive serve is just a little easier to pick up on a slow-bouncing surface, and he’s one of the weakest baseline players on the ATP Tour. So, this is a great opportunity for Hassan to earn one of the biggest wins of his career. Hassan hasn’t been winning matches at an impressive clip lately, but he has at least played six clay-court matches in a row. He’ll be ready to go on the dirt, while Eubanks’ last nine matches have been played on grass.

Sumit Nagal vs. Corentin Moutet

The last time we saw Moutet at Roland Garros, the Frenchman was putting a legitimate scare into Sinner after having already won his previous three matches. Moutet simply loves playing in front of his home crowd and I’d be shocked if he comes up short against Nagal. I know that Nagal is a decent clay-court player, but Moutet is capable of coming up with flashes of brilliance on these courts. And I can also just see him getting under Nagal’s skin, as Moutet has the ability to throw opponents off with his unique style. And the crowd is going to be rowdy in urging him on, which won’t make for a pleasant atmosphere for Nagal.

Bet: Moutet ML (-133 – 2 units)

Alexei Popyrin vs. Nicolas Jarry

The last few months have been rough on Jarry, but he’s still a player that can really get hot on clay. Jarry can absolutely bomb first serves, but he also has a good all-around game for a bigger player. And overall, that makes it hard not to like him to handle his business against Popyrin. I like Popyrin’s ability to rack up easy holds, and he’s definitely one of the most dangerous servers on tour. But Jarry is just a better player in every other aspect of the game, and he’s a lot more comfortable on the dirt. Jarry also tends to get a good amount of crowd support wherever he goes, so I can see him having a little extra adrenaline here.

Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Alex De Minaur

I’m a little skeptical about how De Minaur will look after having injured himself at Wimbledon. If he’s any bit short of 100% health, he won’t be able to grind from the baseline the way he normally does. This is also a tough matchup for the Australian. Struff is a very good clay-court performer, as his booming serve is dangerous on any court. However, the clay makes him a little better as a returner, and he’s also very good at the net. His straightforward style of play is an asset on this surface. I also thought De Minaur was fortunate to beat Struff at the French Open. The German was rolling before a rain delay took them off the court. When they came back out, he looked flat and De Minaur steamrolled him. That isn’t likely to happen again.

Bet: Struff ML (-125 – 1.5 units)

Angelique Kerber vs. Jacqueline Cristian

Kerber comes into this match with a bit of momentum, as the 36-year-old was able to knock out Naomi Osaka in the opening round. The three-time major champion, who is playing in her final tournament, will now look to prolong her career a bit longer. The problem is that Osaka really isn’t much of a clay-court player. So, Kerber was able to win that match by finding the court and relying on her superior rally tolerance. That likely won’t work against Cristian, who is 11-6 on clay over the last 52 weeks and is in the prime of her career.

Cristian is an absolute grinder out there. She covers the court at a very high level and she is really good at extracting errors out of her opponent’s racquet. But Cristian is also capable of flipping the script and going on the offensive when she’s feeling it. And this just feels like a match in which she should be ready to go. Kerber wants to try and grind down her opponents, but Cristian is probably better suited to do that at this point in both of their careers.

The one thing that does worry me here is that the crowd will be pulling for Kerber in her final tournament. But Cristian looked relatively unbothered in her match against Caroline Garcia, who had the full support of the French crowd. So, I trust her to handle her nerves here.

Bet: Cristian ML (-111 – 1.5 units)

It feels a little weird to be getting a second-round matchup between legends like Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, but that’s exactly what we’ll be treated to at the Paris Olympics on Monday, July 29th. Unfortunately, Father Time is coming for both of these players, but he has a bigger bone to pick with the 38-year-old Nadal. Many believe this will be the final time that the Spaniard will compete at singles at Roland Garros, where he has won 14 French Open titles. Nadal has tried to downplay any talk of this being “the last dance” between him and Djokovic, as he insists that he’d be open to playing in 2025 if his health allows it. However, it certainly feels like this could be the last matchup between these longtime rivals. With that in mind, the 60th career head-to-head battle between these two should be fun to watch, even if Djokovic is a heavy betting favorite.

Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic Odds
Moneyline: Djokovic -700, Nadal +475

Spread: Djokovic -4.5 Games (-149), Nadal +4.5 Games (+105)

Total: Over 20.5 Games (-111), Under 20.5 Games (-128)

Only one year separates Nadal and Djokovic, but you wouldn’t know it based on looking at them — or their results over the last few years. Nadal’s body hasn’t held up nearly as well as Djokovic’s, which is why the Serbian is a massive favorite here. When these two met at Roland Garros in the quarterfinals of the 2022 French Open, Djokovic was only a -250 favorite. Of course, Nadal ended up winning that match 6-2, 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 (4) and going on to claim his 14th French Open title. But the Spaniard has continued to deteriorate since then, while Djokovic remains a top-five player in the world. The past few weeks have encapsulated that rather perfectly.

Djokovic went under the knife for meniscus surgery in early June, but he was hardly bothered by it. Just a few weeks later, the Serbian reached the Wimbledon final. Meanwhile, Nadal took the grass-court season off to focus on his Olympics preparation. That looked like it was going to pay off, as the Spaniard made a clay-court final in Bastad a little over a week ago. But as that tournament went on, Nadal got worse and worse. His Performance Rating of 8.1 (from TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations) in his opening-round match against Leo Borg was quite strong. Had Nadal continued to play like that, he might have had a real shot at winning this event. But that number dipped as he played more matches, even though he continued to find ways to win. The Spaniard also picked up a hamstring injury that left his status for the Olympic Games in doubt. Djokovic continues to shrug things off, but Nadal hasn’t been able to do the same. Every time Nadal has a little momentum, something gets in the way.

Looking at this match, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Nadal hangs around. The 38-year-old barely beat Marton Fucsovics in his opening-round match, and his serve has been extremely worrisome lately. Nadal’s hold percentage is down at 77.0% since the start of the 2024 season. In his prime, Nadal was in the mid to high 80’s there. Unless he has an out-of-body serving experience against Djokovic, this could get ugly. Djokovic is one of the best returners in the history of the sport.

Nadal’s baseline game isn’t where it needs to be either. The Spaniard is no longer capable of simply grinding opponents down and ending rallies with his vicious topspin forehand. Instead, he looks to rip shots earlier in rallies to preserve his legs. The problem with that is that Nadal has been spraying more unforced errors than usual. That’s not going to cut it against Djokovic, who will likely go into “lockdown mode” and focus on finding the court as much as possible. If he keeps rallies alive long enough, this version of Nadal will eventually make mistakes.

Overall, this just feels like a match that could get out of hand. It wouldn’t shock me if Nadal finds a way to win a set, but that’d likely be 7-5 or 7-6. What would shock me is if Djokovic doesn’t win at least one lopsided set. Djokovic is nowhere near the peak of his powers either, but he was stronger in Wimbledon than he was at any point in the 2024 season. He’s capable of hitting his spots as a server and handling his business in racking up holds. And I think there will be at least one set in this match in which he’ll pounce all over Nadal’s serve. That’s why I’d suggest laying the games with Djokovic, who is 30-29 in 59 career meetings with Nadal and has a chance to stamp a winning record against his rival once and for all.

Mariano Navone vs. Lorenzo Musetti

This match isn’t going to attract casual tennis fans quite as much as the meeting between Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. However, this is one that the tennis sickos are going to be excited about. Musetti is up to 16th in the live ATP rankings and you’d be hard pressed to find 10 players that are better than him right now. The 22-year-old has always had a world of talent, as he can punish shots from both wings, gets good topspin on his forehand and also has a beautiful backhand slice. He’s also rock solid as both a server and a returner. Musetti is just finally putting things together mentally, and the timing is perfect after a horrendous start to the 2024 season. My only concern is that Musetti could be extremely fatigued, and a matchup with Navone on clay isn’t great for that.

Musetti has played as much tennis as anyone lately. He had a lot of success in the short grass-court season, which is obviously a great thing. But at the same time, that’s a portion of the season in which most players are getting some solid rest. He was going deep into tournaments and even went to the Wimbledon semifinals. Then, Musetti went all the way to the final in Umag, where he lost a long, physical three-set match against Francisco Cerundolo on Saturday. He then had to quickly hop on a flight for a Sunday match against Gael Monfils. Fortunately for Musetti, he earned a quick 6-1, 6-4 victory there. But he has just put a ton of mileage on his body, and he was a little banged up at Wimbledon. At some point, I think that’s going to catch up to him — even though he’s in peak form right now.

If Musetti is a drop short of 100% health, Navone will give him a match. This is a player that is 15-9 on clay over the last 52 weeks. He’s really, really good on this surface, where he combines a grinding mentality with the ability to also play aggressively. Navone is great at finding angles on the court, and he can be a terror to compete against when he’s feeling it from the forehand side. Navone is also one of the best clay-court returners in the world, so he’s going to put a lot of pressure on Musetti’s serve.

All in all, I don’t think it’s smart to rule out Musetti winning. He’s the superior player and is favored for a reason. But I’d be surprised if the Italian wins this in straight sets. There’s a dip in level coming and Navone can bring it out of him.

Bet: Navone +1.5 Sets (-150 – 1.5 units)

Marta Kostyuk vs. Donna Vekic

Vekic has played some incredible tennis over the last couple of weeks. She’s coming off a run to the Wimbledon semifinals, where she nearly beat Jasmine Paolini to book a spot in the final. That came directly after a runner-up finish at Bad Homburg. Vekic also beat Coco Gauff in straight sets in her last match, and she hasn’t yet dropped a set at the Olympics. That makes it pretty easy to understand why she’s a favorite, and I wouldn’t blame anybody that wants to bet her. Vekic actually beat Kostyuk when the two met at the French Open a few months ago. However, I can’t quite shake the fact that I think Kostyuk is a better player.

The last match at Roland Garros was a 7-5, 6-4 win for Vekic, so it really could have gone either way. And I think that if these two played 10 matches against one another, Kostyuk would win either five or six. It’s really close to a 50-50, so I’m putting a small play on Kostyuk at plus-money odds.

Kostyuk actually went into the French Open on a poor run of form, so it wasn’t surprising to me that she was bounced pretty early. But Kostyuk is an absolute ball basher and can display flawless ball-striking when she’s confident. Well, straight-set wins over Lulu Sun and Clara Burel helped her build that confidence, and she then came through with a three-set win over Maria Sakkari last round. So, I think we’re seeing a much sharper version of the Ukrainian in Paris this time around. I also just like that Kostyuk’s break percentage is up at 37.0% in 2024. She has been relentless as a returner, which is only turned up a notch on slower clay. She’s going to constantly put pressure on Vekic’s serve.

It’s also supposed to be hot and humid at Roland Garros on Wednesday. That’s another difference between the French Open and the Olympics. It’s a lot hotter and grittier at this point in the summer. And Kostyuk should be able to deal with that a little better. Vekic had some issues physically later on in Wimbledon.

Bet: Kostyuk ML (+110)

Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz was able to erase a 5-2 second-set deficit to beat Tommy Paul in straight sets. The Spaniard came away with a 6-3, 7-6 (7) victory, but he was pushed hard and noted that he was a little drained from a tough week. Well, Alcaraz is going to need to find his legs quickly in order to advance to the final. I know I liked Casper Ruud to beat Auger Aliassime in the quarterfinals, but the Norwegian was a little off and the Canadian played a solid match. The reality is that Auger Aliassime is benefitting from the fact that the conditions at Roland Garros are a little quicker now than they were at the French Open. For a player with a big serve and straightforward power game, that’s absolutely massive. We have seen Auger Aliassime have a lot of success on quicker clay courts, and I think the small change in conditions will give the Canadian a chance to keep this close.

Alcaraz is undoubtedly one of the best returners in the world, but Auger Aliassime is locked in and should be able to rack up holds. Honestly, Ruud had no business even winning the second set against him, but Auger Aliassime played one sloppy service game and let him back into the match. I don’t think we’ll see a loss of focus from Auger Aliassime at all here. He knows the task at hand and he can’t afford any mental lapses.

Alcaraz did beat up on Auger Aliassime the last time they played, earning a 6-3, 6-3, 6-1 win at the French Open. Alcaraz has now won three matches in a row against Auger Aliassime. However, the Canadian has earned three wins against him and knows that he can compete when he’s playing his best tennis. Well, we have seen the very best of Auger Aliassime at the Olympics, which isn’t surprising considering how well he tends to play when competing for his country. He’s a different player when donning that Canada red. With that in mind, I’m rolling with Auger Aliassime to cover a 4.5-game spread. I think he can get to a tiebreaker here, which would then make the lift quite easy in the other set. But I’m also playing the Canadian to win a set. I just don’t think it’s crazy to believe that he can win a tiebreaker. Alcaraz is also fully capable of playing a sloppy set.

Bet: Auger Aliassime +4.5 Games (-110 – 2 units) + Auger Aliassime +1.5 Sets (+140)

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic

Musetti and Djokovic just met one another at Wimbledon. That match featured Djokovic picking up a straight-set victory. But Musetti was very competitive in those three sets, and that match was played on Djokovic’s favorite surface. Musetti was also coming off a couple of very physical matches, while Djokovic had barely played any tennis in London. So, moving back to clay should help Musetti quite a bit in this matchup. He had took two sets off Djokovic when the two met at the French Open a few weeks earlier. Musetti should also benefit from them being a little more even in time on court than they were at the All England Club.

Musetti’s court coverage allows him to grind out points against Djokovic, and he also has the firepower required to move the Serbian around the court. The latter is really important when looking at this specific match. After beating Stefanos Tsitsipas on Thursday, Djokovic said he felt some pain in the knee he had surgically repaired after withdrawing from the French Open. I know Djokovic is desperate to win Olympic gold, but this is not going to be an easy match for him if he’s injured. Musetti has been scorching hot throughout the course of the summer, and it’s hard to find many players that are playing better than he is right now. So, as long as Musetti doesn’t beat himself mentally here, I like the Italian’s chances of making this match. I also think he has a real shot at winning it.

Bet: Musetti +1.5 Sets (-125 – 1.5 units) & Musetti ML (+225 – 0.5 units)

Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Moneyline: Alcaraz -225, Djokovic +180

Spread: Alcaraz -3.5 Games (-105), Djokovic +3.5 Games (-140)

Total: Over 22.5 Games (-120), Under 22.5 Games (-120)