Spain and France meet in Munich for a heavyweight clash in the Euro 2024 semifinals.

Spain got a 119th-minute goal against Germany to knockout the tournament hosts and they are now the favorite to win Euro 2024. Spain's match against Germany was the first time they have been tested by a team of their caliber in a long time and despite winning, they really weren't that impressive. They are dealing with a few key suspensions as well, so they really are vulnerable here against France.

France survived a full 120 minutes with Portugal and eventually won the match on penalties. They have shown throughout this tournament that even though it doesn't look pretty they are battle tested at major international tournaments and can progress in a multitude of ways. Spain will be the best team they have faced all tournament, but they also will be the best matchup for them as well.

When Spain went ahead against Germany we saw what they are like trying to defend a lead against an elite opponent, and it wasn’t a pretty sight. Germany hadn’t even created 0.5 expected goals through the first 50 minutes and then by the time extra time was over they had created 2.1 expected goals. In the end, Germany had 45 touches in Spain’s penalty area and had completed a whopping nine crosses into the box. The problem for Spain is they have no elite box defenders and now that Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normad are both suspended it’s only going to make it worse.

So, Spain have a choice. They can play their normal style, control a majority of the possession, try to break down the best defensive team in this tournament and leave themselves vulnerable to direct counterattacking opportunities for the best transition team in world, or they can try what they did against Germany and hope that France don't find the back of the net.

Their decision in that regard will have a massive impact on the trajectory of the match.

France have been flying kind of under the radar at these Euros and have gone through a monumental level of underperformance. They have not been able to score a goal themselves from non-penalty situations. What hasn’t been talked about enough though is how good they have been defensively.

France have not conceded a non-penalty goal and their opponents have only created 3.7 npxG in five matches, which is the lowest of anyone left in the tournament. Saliba and Upamecano have also proven to be the best center back pairing in this tournament because of their elite box defending and ball winning ability.

This is also the perfect type of match for them because Spain are going to control a majority of the ball. Every team in this tournament has basically not allowed France to hurt them in transition and has done everything possible to make sure when they lose the ball they have defensive cover or flat out let France build out of the back without much pressure.

I really do not think Spain should be the favorite here. Both teams are coming off extra time with no rest advantage, Spain are dealing with two crucial suspensions in their back line and quite frankly they are going to struggle to create high quality chances against the best defensive team in this tournament.

You combine that with the fact that to play their very best they are going to have to be aggressive when they are in possession and with their counter-pressing when they lose the ball, which is going to give France transitions to punish them. Otherwise, they have to play more passively out of possession, which was not pretty against Germany.

Spain vs. France
Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. ET

Spain broke the hearts of a nation in the quarterfinals of Euro 2024 as substitute Mikel Merino headed past Manuel Neuer with just 90 seconds of extra time remaining to knock out the hosts Germany. As a result, ahead of the semifinals, the Spanish are now the new favorites at +200 to lift the trophy.

That is justified. They are the only side to have won all five of their fixtures, albeit needing that extra 30 minutes against the Germans. Luis de la Fuente’s side have thrilled going forward, scoring a tournament-high 11 goals. Most importantly, they have been rock solid on defense, conceding just twice—one of those being a goal.

They meet a France side that have disappointed many with their turgid performances at this European Championship and needed a penalty shootout to scrape past Portugal in the last eight. However, soccer is never that simple, especially when you are deep into an international tournament.

Didier Deschamps comes in for criticism, given he has a star-studded squad at his disposal. Claims are he is too cautious and doesn’t let his attacking players express themselves freely. What is certain is that he knows how to get the job done. If his side wins here, he will have made a fourth major final in six attempts, all based on a water-tight defense.

It is just as well given Les Bleus continue to struggle going forward. Other than Kylian Mbappé’s penalty against Poland, they have failed to score with any of their other 86 shots in the tournament, beating both Austria and Belgium 1-0 via own goals.

They can take great comfort in their elite defense. Keeper Mike Maignan is yet to be beaten from open play, having only conceded a twice-taken penalty, and William Saliba has shown why many regard him as one of the best defenders, if not the best, in the world.

Only four goals have been scored in France’s five Euro 2024 matches, two penalties and two own goals. As Mbappé continues to struggle with his broken nose, the focus will once again be on not conceding, as it was against the dangerous Portuguese.

That game ended 0-0 and that forms part of a two-pronged attack for me in this fixture. A bet that comes in at a juicy +550, and I am supplementing that with under 2 Asian Total at -110, which cashes with either zero or one goal, gives a refund if there are two goals, and only loses if there are three or more.

Netherlands vs. England
Wednesday, 3:00 p.m. ET

Here we go again. It’s the semifinal stage of Euro 2024, and I am still writing about England, who, despite fierce criticism, are one game away from a second consecutive European Championship final.

As I have previously mentioned, there is no denying my Three Lions have been dreadful. A side containing the Bundesliga top goalscorer supplemented by La Liga and Premier League players of the year obviously aren’t going to showcase their undeniable potential, but they continue to find a way to get the job done.

The latest making the host of penalty shoot traumas I have suffered in yesteryear a distant memory—all after falling behind on 75 minutes against Switzerland before equalizing almost immediately with their first shot on target. Those five perfect penalties against the Swiss mean Gareth Southgate has now guided his team to the semifinals in a major tournament for the third time in four attempts.

There was certainly improvement in that quarterfinal with a change of system giving the side more balance. They played higher up the pitch and especially in the first half with more intensity. It’s not perfect, but it could be enough.

I can’t pull the trigger on England winning this in 90 minutes – or even after extra-time, but I am taking them to make it to the final in Berlin on July 14th. After all, they play a Netherlands side here that finished third in their group behind Austria and a hugely disappointing France.

Yes, Ronald Koeman’s side has threats, but their best player has been Cody Gakpo, who has struggled to nail down a starting place at Liverpool. Their game-changer is Championship side Burnley’s Wout Weghorst a much-ridiculed figure when he made a half-season loan switch to Manchester United, where he scored the grand total of zero goals in 17 Premier League outings.

In short, there is little to fear. Especially if this does go all the way with the ice-cool display England’s penalty takers put on a few days ago.

Reports of heavy rain for the game today. Now if we could just figure out who drake is on? The rain is a problem for the keepers as the ball is going slip and slide around the goal. Me thinks that points towards a couple unexpected goals vs clean sheets all day