Beatriz Haddad Maia vs. Danielle Collins

This is a match in which I genuinely feel like the wrong player is favored. I know Collins won the Miami Open and was almost unbeatable for a good two months. However, Collins is just 8-8 on grass in her career, and the quicker conditions really don’t help her. Collins has so much power that she doesn’t need any help hitting winners. What the American needs is a bit of a higher bounce to give her time to track down balls. She’s not going to have that on the grass, where her weak serve is also a bit of an issue. Collins has won a lot of matches this year by holding at a decent clip and excelling as a returner. But it’s way harder to break good servers on this surface, and Haddad Maia holds at almost 80% on grass.

Haddad Maia is also at her very best on grass, despite having a reputation as a clay-court player. The Brazilian is actually 21-10 on this surface, and she has won two grass-court titles since 2022. Overall, her ability to win quick points here is big, but she’s also capable of getting low to dig out balls as a defender. And she’s tremendous at the net, where her high-level doubles career really helps her.

This is just a match that I believe Haddad Maia should win, so I’m going a little bigger on it. I thought I was going to be dealing with some juice when I first saw this matchup.

Bet: Haddad Maia ML (+155 – 2 units)

Alejandro Tabilo vs. Taylor Fritz

This is a matchup that will probably fly a little under the radar, but this could end up stealing the show on Saturday. Both of these players won grass-court titles before heading over to London, as Tabilo won a tournament in Mallorca and Fritz won in Eastbourne for the third time in his career. All in all, both of these players are extremely dangerous on grass. Sure, Tabilo went into this year known for his clay-court prowess, but he has proven to be an all-court performer. Now, the lefty will look to try and push Fritz in a lengthy match, which is exactly what I think this will be. Fritz might win a lot of matches on this surface, but he also plays a lot of long sets. He’s just not very sharp as a returner. With that in mind, Tabilo should be able to force a tiebreaker or two here. And he’s talented enough to best Fritz in one of them, which was something the American’s opponents couldn’t do in Eastbourne. Overall, I’d be stunned if we don’t see at least a set from both of these guys. This one could honestly go five.

Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-159)