NRFI -120 (Play to -135)

Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs. Cole Ragans (KC)

There's a lot to like about the NRFI here with a total of 7.5 and two strong starting pitchers.

The one thing I don't like is the Guardians' splits against lefties — they rank sixth in MLB with a 117 wRC+. However, that concern is mitigated by Cole Ragans' excellent numbers this year.

His overall ERA and ERA indicators are in the low threes or better, with even stronger early game numbers. His first time through the order ERA is 2.23, with a 2.45 xFIP.

With even less risk on the Royals' side, that makes this a strong edge

Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. Tylor Megill (NYM)

Tylor Megill is a tough pitcher to project with an ERA in the upper fours, a similar xERA, but considerably better FIP and SIERA numbers thanks to a high strikeout rate.

However, his first time through the order ERA is a dreadful 6.39, which is a good sign for the Astros early on in this game.

Framber Valdez is a mid-to-high threes ERA pitcher by pretty much any metric, and that includes his first time through the order splits. He's not a pitcher we'll go out of our way to target, but he's beatable under the right circumstances.

Especially against a team like the Mets, who have a top-five wRC+ against lefties. Houston ranks top five against righties, giving the edge to the offense on both sides here.

That makes this a solid pick at even money (or close to it) with an 8.5-run total.

NRFI -120 (Play to -135)

Starting Pitchers: Jake Irvin (WAS) vs. Aaron Civale (TB)

A lot of this projection is based on the numbers of Aaron Civale. He comes into the game with an ugly 5.20 ERA, but there's more to that number.

All of his underlying metrics are considerably better, with a 4.00 xERA and even lower SIERA and xFIP. More importantly for our purposes, he has a 2.48 ERA and 3.51 xFIP the first time through the order.

He also has a favorable matchup with the Nationals, who have a below-average offense. Their starter Jake Irvin also has solid numbers by any metric.

With a 7.5-run total, that makes this an obvious NRFI bet.