Switzerland vs. Italy
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET

Switzerland have been surprisingly good so far in this tournament and came within a couple of minutes of beating Germany and topping Group A. In hindsight, that is probably the best goal they have conceded as it means they are now in, by far, the easiest half of the draw.

That game showed us just how well the Swiss can defend. They were aggressive and well-organized, keeping the tournament’s top scorers at arm’s length for 92 minutes.

Other than their opening match defeat of a disappointing Hungary, they have struggled in attack. They mustered only four shots against the Germans and needed a wonder strike from Xherdan Shaqiri after a defensive howler to score against Scotland.

Italy left it even later to grab their place in the last 16, needing a Mattia Zaccagni goal with 98 minutes on the clock to earn a draw against Croatia.

They, too, are struggling in attack, starting the first two group games with a striker who has scored just once in 19 international appearances. Against Croatia, Mateo Retegui was given the chance to lead the line and extended a barren run that has seen him score only once in his last 13 appearances for club and country.

This game screams Under, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see it go all the way to penalties. These two sides were in the same World Cup qualifying group in 2021 and drew 0-0 and 1-1. The Swiss have drawn six of their last 10 internationals with eight seeing Under 2.5 goals, while it’s six of the last eight Italian fixtures that have seen two or fewer goals.

Euro 2024 Best Bet: Under 2.25 goals at -150.

The Euro 2024 round of 16 opens on Saturday with an intriguing clash between one of Europe's traditional powers and one of its most consistent performers when Switzerland face Italy.

The Italians are the defending champions, but they are also undergoing a generational change and required Mattia Zaccagni's very late equalizer against Croatia to progress from the group stage. Add in a failure to qualify for the last two World Cups, and this is not the perennial contender most of us know.

Meanwhile, the Swiss program is among Europe's most consistent in the last couple decades, qualifying for six consecutive major tournaments and reaching the knockout phase in the previous five. But none of those tournament runs lasted beyond the quarterfinals, and only one got that far.

You may remember Italy hammering Switzerland 3-0 in their Euro 2020 group stage. But since then the sides have played a pair of draws in 2022 World Cup Qualifying that helped the Swiss qualify at the Italians' expense.

Switzerland's group phase performance was impressive because it demonstrated an ability to earn results either as a team that dictates the game or one that counterpunches.

Murat Yakin's side was at its best in the opener against Hungary, taking a 2-0 lead at half and sealing the game late through Breel Mbolo's stoppage-time goal on the counter.

But a 1-1 draw against Germany was impressive in a different way. While Dan Ndoye's opening goal came against the run of play, the Swiss defended their lead resolutely while also offering a credible threat attacking threat for most of the 90 minutes. Nicolas Fullkrug pulled Germany level late, but the gap of about 1.0 in expected goals owed more to Germany chasing the game than any lack of Swiss quality.

This group's only quarterfinal appearance in their last Euro appearance came after dumping France out of the tournament on penalties following a thrilling 3-3 draw in the second round.

Italy's dramatic late show against Croatia was the time of moment that can inject a previously underperforming team with the self-confidence to make a deep run. And frankly, that had better be the case or else this version of the Azzurri won't be in Germany much longer.

Mattia Zaccagni's strike at the death snapped a scoreless stretch of 253 minutes for Luciano Spalleti's group, during which they frankly didn't deserve to find the net.

After their two early goals against Albania, the Azzurri created only 2.02 expected goals over that barren stretch. More damningly, Spalleti's side hasn't created a single "big chance" across those 90 minutes, defined as one with 30% or greater chance of conversion.

In particular, it's been a tournament to forget for Atalanta's Gianlucca Scamacca, who has only generated 0.2 total xG across 161 minutes of play at his center forward role.

The first thing you might notice looking at the three-way line is how expensive the draw is. Welcome to the Euro knockout phase.

While +190 odds and an implied 34.5% probability might feel high, the 90-minute draw has cashed in 44.6% of knockout phase matches since the tournament expanded first to 16 teams in 1996 and then 24 teams in 2016. That includes eight out of 15 games in Euro 2020.

Add Italy's struggles to create chances and these teams' recent history, and it's the draw that probably has the moneyline value.

However, the second part of the equation is the installation of Italy as a favorite when nothing we've seen so far in this tournament suggests that's reasonable. The Swiss are a seasoned tournament team and, aside from goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, this Italian group is unproven at this stage. Maybe the Swiss shouldn't be favorites. But I'm unconvinced they should be decisive underdogs on a draw-no-bet line.

Germany vs. Denmark
Saturday, 03:00 p.m. ET

Germany showcased a variety of positive attributes in winning Group A. They were thrilling and ruthless as they hammered Scotland 5-1 on the opening night, clinical and efficient in defeating Hungary 2-0 and then showed their resilience as they dug deep to snatch a draw from the jaws of defeat against the Swiss.

That draw also illustrated Julian Nagelsmann has the tools to impact things from off the bench. Niclas Füllkrug has played just 73 minutes as a substitute so far this tournament and scored two goals. The Germans have created more chances, taken more shots, and scored more goals than any other nation after the group stage.

They face a Denmark side that were the only team to automatically qualify out of their group without winning a game. Only finishing above third-placed Slovenia on yellow card countback.

Germany have far too much firepower for the Danes. Having won nine of their last 11 major tournament first knockout games, they will be confident of making that 10 of 12 here in Dortmund. The atmosphere will be white hot, and the hosts will be roared on to win by at least two goals, which is what we need to cash this bet. We have the safety net of a full refund should they only win by one.

Euro 2024 Best Bet: Germany -1 Handicap at +114.

Most bet (tickets) Italy-Switzerland props at BetMGM

1. Italy to qualify (-140)

2. Over 2.5 goals scored (+160)

3. Both teams to score (Yes +110)

4. Under 9.5 corners (-140)

Italy-Switzerland betting at BetMGM

Italy open +125, now +150
▪️ 54% of bets, 60% of money on Italy

Tie open +220, now +185
▪️ 18% of bets, 21% of money on Tie

Switzerland open +240, now +225
▪️ 28% of bets, 19% of money on Switzerland

Most bet (tickets) Germany-Denmark props at BetMGM

1. Under 2.5 goals (-120)

2. Both teams to score (Yes -110)

3. Germany over 1.5 goals (-140)

4. Germany to qualify (-350)

Updated Germany-Denmark betting at BetMGM

Germany open -135, now -160
▪️ 81% of bets, 90% of money on Germany

Tie open +260, now +280
▪️ 8% of bets, 7% of money on Tie

Denmark open +360, now +450
▪️ 11% of bets, 3% of money on Denmark

England looks to progress to the quarterfinals when they take on Slovakia.

England was once again unimpressive against Slovenia drawing them 0-0. In the end, they did win Group C and put themselves in a really good position to make a deep run in this tournament. While there are clear concerns in front of net, they have been the best defensive team in this tournament, which could take them all the way to the finals.

Slovakia's upset win over Belgium in the first match of the group stage proved to be enough to get them to the knockout stage for the second time in the country's history. They weren't very impressive though during the group stage and got dominated by Portugal in qualifying. Unless they pull off a great defensive performance, it looks unlikely that they will pull off the upset.

England once again struggled in possession and quite frankly looked completely disjointed. Coach Gareth Southgate started Connor Gallagher alongside Declan Rice in the midfield, but it clearly wasn’t working, so he subbed Kobbie Mainoo on at half time.

The issues that had against Slovenia’s 4-4-2 low block were very similar to the problems they had in their first two group stage matches as well. There is no onus or clear plan to play through the middle of the pitch.

Jude Bellingham is floating around trying to find space, Harry Kane keeps dropping deep, but there is either no space or the opposition has a numerical advantage in the middle, so they can’t play through.

When England faces low blocks, which they are going to again against Slovakia, their ball rotations and passing around the defensive block are incredibly slow. It ends up allowing their opponents to easily stay compact and live with England trying to beat them in wide areas.

At one point against Slovenia, only 16% of their attacks were coming through the middle of the pitch. What's weird as well is England seems to be refusing to settle for crosses too, because they've attempted the fourth fewest so far this tournament and seem to be just relying on individual quality to play through the opponents defensive structure.

Slovakia is going to sit in a 4-5-1 defensive structure and like the three teams England has already faced, dare them to break them down. The spine of their team is actually pretty good and will make it very difficult for England to play through the middle with the likes of Feyenoord’s Dávid Hancko and PSG’s Milan Škriniar along with a great central midfielder in Napoli’s Stanislav Lobotka.

They really haven't been that good defensively during this tournament conceding 4.5 expected goals through three matches, but this is a much more conservative team they're playing and they conceded most of those chances when they were leading against Belgium and Ukraine. Naturally, they conceded possession of the match to try and protect their lead.

There really isn't anything to this attack though. Even though they scored in all three of their group stage matches, they only created 2.3 expected goals and have completed just 13 passes into the penalty area, which is third lowest in this tournament.

Not to mention, they're almost completely reliant on set pieces and transition attacks as their main two ways to create chances, which is simply not going to be successful against England's defense.

Even with all of their problems though, England has been the best defensive team in this tournament allowing only 1.2 expected goals. They do not allow you to play in transition or create chances off of set pieces, which are basically the only two methods Slovakia creates chances.

Slovakia is going to do exactly what Denmark, Serbia, and Slovenia did against England: sit deep, deny space space through the middle, and dare them to beat them from outwide.

Even if England goes ahead in this match, they have proven under Southgate that they will take the most conservative approach possible to protect their lead, so I think we have another low event type of match on our hands.

England vs. Slovakia
Sunday, 12:00 p.m. ET

England have been coming in for all kinds of stick after their first three performances. But they topped the group and are still the favorites in the futures market to win the whole thing at odds of +350.

One thing they certainly have working well is their defense, Jordan Pickford has only been beaten once, and it took an unstoppable strike that flew in from 30 yards. From solid foundations games and tournaments are won while it is surely only a matter of time before a side containing Harry Kane, Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham click in the final third.

Gareth Southgate’s opponents in the last 16 are Slovakia, third-place finishers in Group F. Fortunate shock winners on match day one against a Belgium side who had numerous chances and two goals ruled out via marginal VAR decisions. They were then beaten by Ukraine before drawing their final group game versus Romania, a result which was favorite pre-kickoff, as it meant both sides progressed.

The Three Lions have won five of their last six games against the Slovaks and will get the job done again here, while keeping a clean sheet. Variations of England “win-to-nil” are England win and Both Teams to Score = no or England win and under 0.5 Slovakia goals.

Euro 2024 Best Bet: England to win to nil at +100.

Spain looks to get past Georgia for a spot in the quarterfinals.

Spain was once of the most impressive teams during the group stage, winning all three of their matches in dominant fashion in what was supposed to be the group of death. Spain faced Georgia twice during qualifying and dominated them in both meetings.

In their first ever major international tournament, Georgia did the unthinkable and upset Portugal at 8/1 underdogs to make it to the knockout stage. Stories like this are what makes the Euros such a special tournament and while it's an amazing achievement, the clock is about to strike midnight for this underdog.

Spain and Georgia meet again after facing off twice during qualifying and let’s just say neither match was particularly close.

The first match in Georgia, Spain won 7-1 and dominated Georgia in all areas of the pitch. Georgia tried to play a compact defensive structure, but Spain is the best team in the world at passing in tight spaces and opened them up easily for the first goal. After that, the dam broke and goals kept coming.

Spain is about the worst team in the world to play when you're trailing. They held over 70% of the ball in their two matches against Georgia and kept playing right through them in all areas of the pitch. That same thing can happen here again because as Georgia has shown in this tournament when they conceded over three expected goals to both Czechia and Turkey, they're not a team built to play aggressively out of possession.

Spain has one of the most balanced build up structures you will see with the aim and first and foremost creating overloads in the middle of the pitch. Yet, they are versatile and will look to get the ball out wide to their talented wingers to create chances via crosses as well. They've completed the second most crosses so far this tournament, so they're really set up well to thrash Georgia once again.

A theme with Georgia in this tournament is how brave they were against the three teams in their group by not just sitting back and trying to play attacking football. Well, that ended up with them allowing 7.9 expected goals during the group stage — by far the most of anyone in the tournament.

Good pressing teams will punish you if you aren’t good at building out of the back or don’t do it with regularity. Czechia forced 28 high recoveries, Portugal and Turkey both forced 18, so what do you think the best pressing side in this tournament is going to do?

That is exactly what led to multiple goals in that 7-1 thrashing in Georgia. Once they fell behind they kept trying to play out of the back and Spain ended up with 26 high recoveries, leading them to create 4.8 expected goals.

The other problem that Georgia had was because they were playing such a compact structure, it often left them in 1-v-1 situations out wide against Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams — both who consistently were beating Georgia’s fullbacks and creating chances.

Spain dominating Georgia in both qualifying matches is not something we should gloss over. In both matches, Georgia came out with the most passive approach that they could do and still got ripped apart. So, if they are going to play as aggressively as they have been throughout this tournament that is only going to give Spain more space to operate while in possession.

While Georgia making it to the knockout stage is a nice story, they're the worst defensive team in this tournament. If they get into a negative game state here against Spain, things are going to get just as bad as they did in their previous two meetings in qualifying.

Spain vs. Georgia
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET

Spain is the only side to have won all three of their games so far. They still looked impressive when they made 10 changes for the fixture against Albania. Spain may have only scored five goals, but that defeat of Italy was one of the most one-sided 1-0 victories I have ever seen.

Luis de la Fuente has his side playing a more direct and energetic style than we are used to seeing from them. They play with real width which allows their creative midfielders the space to pick out key passes, and the head coach knows tournament soccer well. He led the Spanish to victory in the Nations League last summer and oversaw the Under 19 and Under 21 national teams when they won their Euro titles.

What a great watch opponents Georgia have been. The 74th-ranked team in the world were expected to finish bottom of their group in their first major international tournament, but they have massively overachieved with their effective, exciting counter-attacking style. In Georges Mikautadze, they have the current top goalscorer in the competition.

However, I make no apologies for ending the fairy tale I am here to cash winning tickets. Over 2.75 goals is a massive play here at -112.

These two nations shared the same qualifying group. Spain won while hitting the back of the net 25 times in their eight games which saw an average of 3.75 goals per fixture. Georgia actually finished fourth and had to qualify via the back door, but their games averaged exactly the same.

Large contributors to those totals were when the two nations met. Spain won both meetings, a 3-1 victory on home soil was overshadowed by an incredible 7-1 victory in Georgia. Just three goals will get us a half-stake win here, but four or more will cash the ticket in full.

Euro 2024 Best Bet: Over 2.75 goals at -112.

After a difficult group stage, France look to turn the tides when they face off against Belgium.

France were the overwhelming favorites to win Group D, but they were able to win just one of their three group stage matches to finish in second and it put them on the difficult side of the bracket. However, France have been one of the best teams in this tournament at creating chances, even with Kylian Mbappe missing one match.

Belgium were throughly unimpressive during the group stage, finishing in second in the easiest group possible. Because of that, what was supposed to be a favorable path to the semifinals is now incredibly difficult. They will need to have a much improved performance if they want to hang with France.

France have struggled during this tournament, but I think you will see a much different lineup with a lot better structure against Belgium.

Deschamps will most likely go back to the lineup he had against Austria and he should really bring on Camavinga for Rabiot. Everyone can overreact to France not even scoring a goal themselves from open play in those first three matches, but the reality is they were incredibly unlucky to not do so. France created 5.1 expected goals from non-penalty situations, but somehow they couldn’t find the back of the net, which was the third-most of anyone in the group stage. Not to mention, France have 107 penalty box touches through three matches, which is 12 more than anyone else.

Mbappe is back in the lineup after missing the match against the Netherlands and looked good against Poland. They created over two expected goals against a team that is used to sitting in a passive defensive structure and now they are going to face a team that isn’t very comfortable in that type of scenario.

For the entire group stage, Belgium have been the ones controlling possession and they have been good in that type of role when you look at xG. However, their back line has not been tested really at all and quite frankly, it isn’t talented enough to stop the attackers France have.

A back four of Wout Faes, who was terrible when Leicester were in the Premier League, Artur Theate, who is inexperienced playing at the highest level, Jan Vertongen, who is now 37 years old, and Timothy Castagne, who is more a ball progressing left back, is not going to stop one of the best attacks in the world.

I know that because the one instance during qualifying when they had to defend deep was against Austria, and they ended up conceding 2.49 expected goals on 14 shots.

It's also pretty clear that Belgium don't have another consistent attacking option other than Romelu Lukaku. He's the one that has taken a high percentage of their shots and even though he's been unlucky not to score, they need someone else to step up and be a goal scoring threat.

France have shown that they are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. They have only allowed 1.6 non-penalty expected goals so far this tournament, which is second-best to only England. They have a center back pairing that can deal with Lukaku and as Belgium have shown, outside of him there really isn’t much of the threat in this attack, plus Dodi Lukebakio is suspended.

Belgium have been favored in almost every single match outside of one against Austria in qualifying (the one where they conceded 2.49 xG), so this is new territory for them and honestly it's not a matchup that suits them. Their press has been terrible and if they can't close down the ball, France are going to play right through them.

In addition to that, Belgium's best defensive players and ball stoppers are in the middle of the pitch, but France are going to want to get the ball out wide to Dembele and Mbappe, who are going to destroy Belgium's fullbacks.

France vs. Belgium
Monday, 12:00 p.m. ET

It was a shock to see France fail to win their group for the first time since the European Championship of 2012. They do enter the knockout stages unbeaten, and but for a twice-taken penalty for Poland, they would have topped Group D.

Kylian Mbappé also scored his first Euros goal and proved he can still hit the target whilst wearing his protective mask. He can add to his tally here against a Belgium defense that consists of 37-year-old Jan Vertonghen and Wout Faes, who always looks like he has an error in him. The French captain’s pace can exploit those weaknesses.

In a similar way to Gareth Southgate for England, there is dissatisfaction with the soccer Didier Deschamps has his star-studded side playing. Let us remember, though, that under him, Les Bleus have reached the final in three of the last four major tournaments. They look great value at -110 to win this one.

Domenico Tedesco’s side were booed off by their own fans after the 0-0 draw against Ukraine, which sealed their place in the knockout stages as Group E runners-up. As well as another frustrating performance, those fans also knew that meant a Round of 16 clash with the French, and the end of their tournament was around the corner.

Aside from the odd flash of brilliance from Kevin De Bruyne, there has not been much to get excited about for Red Devils supporters. High hopes were had of Jeremy Doku, but his final ball has often left lots to be desired, while the luckless but goalless Romelu Lukaku has cut an ever-increasingly frustrated figure.

France’s rock-solid defense has not conceded a goal from open play in over 7.5 hours and can shut out the misfiring Belgium attack. Expect them to do just enough to make it to the last eight once more.

Euro 2024 Best Bet: France Moneyline at -110.

Portugal vs. Slovenia
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET

Portugal claimed their place in the last 16 at the earliest possible opportunity after winning their opening two fixtures. Don’t read too much into the defeat to minnows Georgia with their work already done as guaranteed group winners and Roberto Martinez giving the majority of his starting lineup the night off.

With their stars returning fresh for this clash, that gives them even more of an edge against Slovenia who have qualified for the knockout stages of the European Championship for the first time. One star name who did start against Georgia was Cristiano Ronaldo, who went unsuccessfully in search of what would have been a goal in a sixth successive Euros. He at least has the consolation of providing a tournament all-time record seventh assist when creating Bruno Fernandes’ goal in the 3-0 defeat of Turkey.

It will be interesting to see if he starts again here, but the fact that is a question highlights the incredible depth Martinez has in his squad. Diogo Jota, Goncalo Ramos, and Joao Felix all wait in the wings but offer great bench options if faith is kept with the 39-year-old captain.

Along with Denmark, Slovenia are one of only two sides in the final 16 who have yet to win in this year’s tournament. While the Portuguese cruised to the knockout stages, they had to sweat it out before being confirmed as the fourth and final best of the third-place finishers. Actually, ending on less points than Ukraine who were eliminated after finishing bottom of group E.

Only five nations conceded more shots at their goal than Matjaž Kek’s men which is a recipe for disaster against a Portugal side with goals throughout the team. Top scorers in qualifying and with the meanest defence a win by two or more goals is the way in here for a side that are priced up as high as -278 on the Money Line. With this bet, if Portugal only win by one goal, we only lose half our stake.

Euro 2024 Best Bet: Portugal -1.25 Handicap at -102.