NRFI -125 (Play to -135)

Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker vs. Zach Eflin

Mitchell Parker has been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals this year, his rookie big-league campaign. He comes into Friday with a 3.30 ERA and similar ERA predictors through 13 starts.

That ERA drops even more his first time through the order to 2.70, and he's taking on a Rays team without a true standout hitter in the top three of their lineup.

Even with that said, Tampa is still the more likely team to score in the first inning, due to similar numbers for Zach Eflin and a weaker opponent in the Nationals.

YRFI -113 (Play to -120)

Starting Pitchers: Marcus Stroman vs. Yusei Kikuchi

After opening at 8.0, the total in this game has seen steady upward pressure, and as of early Friday morning is at 8.5 with slightly higher juice on the over.

That's a good sign for how the market views the overall scoring environment in this one, with the Yankees specifically likely to have their runs produced by their first three hitters.

Due to injuries, New York's lineup features two of the top three hitters in baseball in their first three lineup spots, followed by a slew of barely MLB-level hitters behind them.

Both pitchers also have reverse ERA splits, with higher ERAs their first time through the order than overall.

On top of that, Stroman is due for some general regression, with a low-threes ERA (both first time through the order and overall) but xFIP numbers more than a run higher in both scenarios.

NRFI -130 (Play to -140)

Starting Pitchers: Bailey Ober vs. Logan Gilbert

The game has a total of just seven runs, which is driving a lot of the projection. It also has one elite pitcher in Logan Gilbert, who has a 2.75 ERA and 3.08 xFIP his first time through the order.

There is the issue Twins starter Bailey Ober. His ERA is 4.50 overall this year, and 4.54 his first time through the order. However, he's been better than that based on his ERA indicators.

His xFIP numbers (both overall and early) drop by about half a run, with his SIERA close to a full run. He gets a big upgrade in Park Factor by virtue of this game being in Seattle, the best park for pitchers in baseball. Relative to home games for Ober, runs are 17% lower at T-Mobile Park.

Plus there's the Mariners offense, which is about average overall against righties but with a league-high 28% strikeout rate. That should help Ober, a moderately high strikeout pitcher.

See you at the window !!!

Thank you sir