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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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Market Moves 6/27

7:45 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-140, 7.5)

The Reds (37-43) just dropped two of three against the Pirates, losing yesterday’s series finale 6-1 as -135 home favorites. On the flip side, the Cardinals (41-38) just took two of three against the Braves, winning the second game of yesterday’s doubleheader 4-1 as +105 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Reds hand the ball to lefty Andrew Abbott (6-6, 3.40 ERA) and the Cardinals go with righty Miles Mikolas (6-6, 4.68 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -130 home favorite and Cincinnati a +115 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Cardinals laying modest chalk at home, steaming St. Louis up from -130 to -140. The Cardinals are receiving 63% of moneyline bets, indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. St. Louis has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Cardinals are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .269 with a 3.70 ERA. The Reds are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .237 with a 4.34 ERA. St. Louis is 22-16 at home. Cincinnati is 17-20 on the road. Mikolas has a 2.49 ERA in four June starts, allowing 7 runs in 25.1 innings pitched. The Cardinals are 6-2 in Mikolas’ last eight starts.

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