red-hot Manchester United continues their campaign for a top-four finish on Monday at Old Trafford as they host Southampton. With Chelsea’s loss to Sheffield United on Saturday, Manchester United can leap into the top four with a win on Monday.

Southampton, on the other hand, have reached the coveted 40-point mark, which will keep them in the Premier League for another season. So, realistically, they have nothing to play for in this match.

Manchester United
The Red Devils are the hottest team in England at the moment. Since the restart United has grabbed 13 of a possible 15 points, while outscoring their opponents 15 to three in those matches. Bruno Fernandes, Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood have been the men in form for United since the restart.

Over their last five matches, the trio has combined for 13 goals and four assists. They’ve also maintained a combined 1.47 xG per 90 minutes scoring rate.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

At Old Trafford this season, the Red Devils have been dominant, winning on average by 1.13 xG per match (1.97 xGF, 0.84 xGA). In fact, they’ve been red hot over their last four matches at home, dominating the expected goals battle 9.71 to 2.51.

With matches against Chelsea and Leicester looming on the schedule ahead, this is an amazing opportunity for the Red Devils to take some pressure off themselves heading into those matches and qualify for the Champions League.

Southampton
The Saints have been in great form since the restart, grabbing 10 of a possible 15 points and posting a +5 goal differential. Those results, however, are a bit deceiving as the Saints have lost the expected goals battle, 8.41 to 7.07 in those matches, although most of that difference was due to their match against Man City, in which they lost the expected goals battle 0.70 to 3.53.

Southampton has been one of the best road teams in the Premier League this season. The Saints rank fifth in expected goals for per match (1.58), sixth in expected goals against per match (1.37) and boast a +3.54 xG differential when playing on the road. They’ve been especially hot over the second half of the season on the road, winning six of their last nine matches.

The Saints are no strangers to pulling off major upsets. This season Southampton has beaten both Chelsea and Leicester on the road, and most recently upset Man City at home just over a week ago. With a match against Chelsea looming on Saturday, Man United must stay focused or Southampton could pull off another upset.

Recent Form
Norwich became the first team to be relegated from the Premier League after they were dismantled 4-0 by West Ham at Carrow Road. In fact, they’ve been defeated by that exact scoreline twice this month already, as the wind has been completely knocked out of their sails.

Top-flight football just seemed a little too challenging for them, even if they did enjoy a promising start to the campaign.

Chelsea, meanwhile, were hammered 3-0 by a Sheffield Utd outfit whose season looked to be petering out, but they should be much more encouraged now they’re returning back to Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea To Win To Nil
Frank Lampard’s men have now won each of their last five domestic matches at this stadium dating back to late February, impressively defeating Spurs, Liverpool, Everton, Man City and Watford.

They also conceded just two goals across those games, though something we have seen creep into their recent matches across all venues is an abundance of final-third action, with a minimum of three goals being seen in all four matches this month and as many as five in half.

The Canaries, having scored 24 goals across the opening 24 gameweeks of the season, have scored just twice in the 11 subsequent matches.

It’s no surprise that since the goals have dried up so have their results and indeed, they went W1-D1-L9 across those matches, losing each of the last seven including all six since the return from the covid break.

That hardly encourages us that they’re capable of putting up a challenge against a Blues side gunning for Champions League football again next season following the Citizens’ UEFA ban being lifted.

Chelsea vs Norwich | Tuesday 14th July 2020, 3:15

Norwich had their fate sealed at the weekend after a shambolic 4-0 loss at home to West Ham. The Canaries were bad before the break but have come back with a worrying lack of form and a disappointing air of inevitability about their relegation.

Daniel Farke said after the weekend game that they had a 5% chance of staying up, I’m sorry but I’m not having that. They won the championship title last season lets not forget; it’s about the belief and ability to be competitive. Look at Sheffield United, if they can be in the running for Europa League what’s stopping Norwich from being at least in with a chance of survival. They’ve just rolled over. It's been embarrassing.

Farke has seemingly managed to avoid any criticism, something I’m baffled by. I’ve never known a manager of a team with 24 defeats to his name get such a free pass!

Fair enough, Norwich didn’t spend a boat load in the summer and some have said that’s good and clever management but they’re bottom of the league, it’s not. There were obvious defensive flaws in their promotion campaign and they seriously thought they could get away with that in the Premier League?

Chelsea, on the other hand, have largely been decent on the return to the Premier League since Project Restart. They have had impressive wins against Manchester City and Watford but have chucked in a few poor results against West Ham and Sheffield United.

There’s still defensive issues for Frank Lampard to clear up but that shouldn’t be too much of an issue here. Matteo Kovacic and Callum Hudson-Odoi could come back into the team to freshen things up. I expect the Blues to knock in a few goals here but I wouldn’t rule out a Norwich goal given the lapses of concentration at the back.

You have to stretch to a -2.5 Asian Handicap to get anything odds against on Chelsea here and that’s not really my bag. Instead, I’ll head to the BetBuilder market on Bet365 and combine a home win with Over 2 Goals and Norwich to have Over 0 Cards, that brings about a nice 4/5 shot.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth | Wednesday 15th July 2020, 1:00

Manchester City host Bournemouth on Wednesday evening as the Cherries look to build on their stunning 4-1 win against Leicester on Sunday.

Losing 1-0 at half-time having been comprehensively outplayed, Eddie Howe’s side were staring yet another defeat and the likelihood of relegation in the face. However, two errors from Kasper Schmeichel and a red card for Caglar Soyuncu helped turn the game in their favour in a dramatic second-half.

The bookmakers don’t fancy them to pull off another shock victory at the Etihad, though, pricing Bournemouth at 16/1 to win and 15/2 to nick a point, with City 1/7 to win.

Indeed, it’s always tough to find value on Pep Guardiola’s side when they face a bottom-half side at home, but there are a few bets I like the look of here.

David Silva is 4/5 (Betfair) to have 1+ shot on-target. The Spaniard was rested at Brighton, so I expect him to start here before dropping back to the bench for the FA Cup semi-final against Arsenal at the weekend (but of course it may be sensible to wait for team news before placing any player specific bets).

Silva has had at least one shot on-target in all four of his league starts since the restart, with two in both of his last two starts (scoring vs Newcastle) making the 4/1 on offer for him to have 2+ tempting, too. He will want to sign off his illustrious City career in style and this is his penultimate home game, albeit without the fandom in the ground a player of his productivity and longevity deserves.

Another player prop I can’t resist is Jefferson Lerma to be carded at 7/4 (bet365). The Colombian has been booked in 11 of his 28 starts this season, and it would likely have been much more than that had he not been one yellow card away from a two-match ban for several of those starts.

Those fears are gone now with the threshold removed, and he will lead the aggression and bite in Bournemouth’s midfield. 13/2 (also bet365) on him to be the first player carded also looks a good price given it has landed in six of his 28 starts, including against Tottenham last week.

At a similar price, I like the look of Man City to win 4-0 or 5-0 at 6/1 (Betfair). Since the restart, they’ve won 5-0 three times and 4-0 once. 5-0 looks a very big price at 16/1, and might be worth a small play, with 4-0 shorter at 9/1.

Recent Form
After beating Wolves 2-0 near the beginning of the month, Arsenal were again the better team when facing both Leicester and Spurs, but any immediate optimism has been squashed by taking just one point from those two outings.

The Gunners looked dangerous going forwards in the North London derby, but defensive frailties were still evident, with Jose Mourinho’s side able to suck up the pressure for long periods and particularly in the second half.

Mikel Arteta needs fresh faces at the back, but if his current options can’t get the basics right there’s no point entertaining hopes of a clean sheet when welcoming the new league champions.

Liverpool’s sharp shooters will prey upon any mistakes like Sead Kolasinac’s pass back to David Luiz, or the failure to pick up Toby Alderweireld from a set piece, so we’d expect Jurgen Klopp’s side to grab at least a couple of goals.

Both Teams To Score
Liverpool had their own disappointing result at the weekend as their 24-game winning streak at Anfield came to an end, though a stalemate with a solid, hard-working Burnley outfit having already lifted the title is a hardly a major concern.

It does however further hint that the new champions are taking their foot off the gas a little and the Reds now hold just three clean sheets from 12 appearances across all competitions.

In the league alone they’ve made concessions to the likes of weaker outfits West Ham, Watford, Bournemouth, Brighton and Burnley, as well as receiving a 4-0 hiding by Man City at the Etihad.

Arsenal have kept just one clean sheet in nine matches against the top five in the table this season. They’ve also found the net themselves in four of the five that have come under Arteta, as the exception came on the road at Man City.

Manchester City got some huge news on Monday when the Court of Arbitration in Sport overturned their two-year Champions League ban. The ruling shouldn’t have any impact on the field, but it’s a big break for Pep Guardiola’s side.

Now City can focus on wrapping up second place in the Premier League with a win over relegation-threatened Bournemouth on Wednesday.

The Cherries are three points from safety and will need to get something from this game to boost their chances for survival.

Manchester City
City’s offense looks unstoppable at the moment. The Cityzens are coming off back-to-back 5-0 wins and are creating 3.72 expected goals per match over their last four contests. Raheem Sterling has been the form man of late, scoring five goals in his last four appearances.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

City have been especially scary at home, where they’ve won their last four matches by a combined score of 19-0. In fact, Manchester City haven’t conceded a goal at The Etihad since Jan. 18.

Man City have an outstanding home record against the bottom half of the table. Pep’s men are have a +2.42 expected goals differential (3.16 xGF, 0.74 xGA) in eight matches against teams ranked 11-20 in the EPL.

Manchester City are no strangers to running up the score, as 13 of their 23 wins this season have come by 3+ goals.

Bournemouth
The Cherries were able to keep their season alive with a 4-1 upset over Leicester City on Sunday. It was Bournemouth’s first Premier League win in over five months.

That win likely just delayed the inevitable as Bournemouth have been terrible of late and their road woes this season paint a bleak picture for Wednesday’s match. Bournemouth are currently on an eight-game road losing streak and their -7.28 xG differential (8.84 xGF, 16.12 xGA) in those matches tells you that Bournemouth have been thoroughly outplayed.

Bournemouth rank 15th in the Premier League in expected goals against, so it’s hard to trust them to slow down a red-hot Manchester City.

Sampdoria are almost certainly safe from relegation but a win for Claudio Ranieri’s side on Wednesday afternoon would put all worries to bed. The Blucerchiati are six points above 18th-place Lecce and there are a handful of teams in between them, but a loss to Cagliari would turn up the heat just a little bit on Sampdoria.

Cagliari have nothing to gain from Wednesday’s match. The Islanders are safe from relegation but have no chance at qualifying for European Football.

Cagliari won two of their first three matches after the break to ensure they would stay up, but they’ve stumbled since then, scoring just once during a four-game winless streak (one loss, three draws).

Cagliari may have the better record between these two sides, but Sampdoria boasts the stronger statistical profile. In fact, according to Understat’s expected points (xPoints), these two teams should flip spots in the table.

That being said, it’s actually Cagliari who have the better underlying metrics since play resumed.

With three wins and eight goals scored from their last four matches, Sampdoria may look like they are clicking at the moment but those results are a bit misleading. Sampdoria’s expected goal differential over their last four matches is just +0.47 while their actual goal differential sits at +4.

Even though Cagliari don’t have anything to really play for, I have a tough time backing Sampdoria as an odds-on favorite in this match. Their recent form may look strong on paper, but it’s inflating their price against a team that is being perceived as a lame duck.

West Ham vs Watford | Friday 17th July 2020

Watford make the short trip south to take on West Ham in a Friday night encounter which could have massive ramifications in the battle to avoid relegation.

Both the Hammers and Hammers currently sit on 34 points, hovering three points above the relegation zone knowing that a win here would not only give their opponents a nervous last two games but also all but seal their own survival in the top-flight.

Both these teams should be higher up the Premier League table than they currently are but identity crises, poor defending and injuries to key players have blighted their squads this campaign.

Although a point apiece here would be convenient for both, it’s likely Watford who will need the points from this more given their final two fixtures of Manchester City at home and Europe-chasing Arsenal away.

Odds on the draw have been shortening since results a week ago went very much against Bournemouth and a stalemate can be found at best price 21/10 with SkyBet.

With the Cherries picking up three points against Leicester last weekend however and showing some spirit in their defeat in Manchester, a draw perhaps appeals less now than it did a week ago but I still wouldn’t turn anyone away from backing it at this late stage of the season.

Given the expected nature of the game, I’m happy to back unders for shots. It perhaps goes against the grain for recent matches involving these teams but if the intensity does drop off and there’s less attacking out of the fear of losing, the Under 22.5 Shots with Bet365 has a good chance of landing. I’m going to have a one point play on it.

The other angle I want to explore is Watford passes, specifically Etienne Capoue. The Frenchman has averaged 44 passes this season so the over 45.5 line with Bet365 appeals, priced at 5/6 at the time of writing. The reason I like this line so much is the opposition and the way West Ham have been playing under David Moyes.

Since he arrived just before the new year, West Ham’s possession average has dropped by an average of 10% per game – 48.5% under previous boss Pellegrini to 38.6% in Moyes’ more conservative approach with the ball.

Recent Form
Champions League qualification may be all important for both sides, but don’t expect either Frank Lampard or Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to field weakened teams with the prospect of silverware on the horizon – even if United have had a couple of days less to prepare.

Man Utd will be seeking to keep up momentum as they remain unbeaten in 19 outings since late January, winning 13 of these in normal time.

In fact, their extra-time winner against Norwich in the previous round of this competition is the only occasion in their last seven where they’ve failed to score at least twice in 90 minutes.

Even limited to the best teams they’ve faced over this period (Man City, Wolves, Chelsea, Spurs and Sheffield Utd), they’ve won an impressive four out of six.

The Blues can point to a record of eight wins from 10 since March, though both defeats came away from Stamford Bridge, while the defence has registered just three shutouts in eight fixtures now.

Those were picked up against a Leicester side that made a poor restart to action, as well as relegated Norwich and a Watford side still battling the drop. Shipping three goals at both West Ham and Sheffield Utd must be of concern however, while even low-scorers Palace managed to hit two past Kepa Arrizabalaga.

United certainly have the attacking tools to give Chelsea problems. Indeed, their sustained form is all the more remarkable when considering Paul Pogba and Marcus Rashford were absent for a large chunk of that run as they didn’t return until June.

The signing of Bruno Fernandes and the emergence of Mason Greenwood, as well as the successful returns of that injured duo, leaves us sceptical of Chelsea’s clean sheet prospects. Indeed, the Blues have conceded more league goals than any other top-half team this term.

Manchester United Draw No Bet
Having won four of six unbeaten clashes since the start of last season, United will point to recent head-to-heads to offer encouragement too, especially as they’ve won all three this term where Solskjaer and Lampard have met in the dugout.

Although the opening day 4-0 annihilation at Old Trafford shouldn’t be repeated here, United did win both their Carabao Cup trip to the Bridge as well as the reverse fixture in the league.

This clash will take place at Wembley, a familiar arena for both sides, so we wouldn’t put too much emphasis on the duo’s results away from Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge respectively.

However, when considering Man Utd’s lengthy unbeaten streak, their attacking prowess and Chelsea’s vulnerable rearguard, they appear worth siding with draw no bet at the prices.

Cagliari vs. Sassuolo | Saturday 18th July 2020, 1:30

In-form Sassuolo travel to the Sardegna Arena on Saturday to take on a Cagliari side who’ve struggled in recent weeks.

Roberto De Zerbi’s guests are in a purple patch at just the right time as they aim to finish in a European spot. Coming off of the back of a thrilling 3-3 home draw to champions elect to Juventus, they enter this fixture with their tails up and hunting three points against a side who’ve little to play for.

Cagliari look as though they’re already winding down and merely awaiting the season’s conclusion. They’ve tasted victory just once at home in their last eight games.

Walter Zenga has said his side are struggling with mental fatigue as opposed to physical and he also expressed that other players must take on different responsibilities with key man Radja Nainggolan out through injury.

Key stats
Cagliari:

Commit on average 14.1 fouls per game when playing at home.
Receive on average 11.6 fouls per game when playing at home.
Have seen 2+ cards in 8/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 5/8 occasions.
Have scored in 5/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
Have conceded in 8/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
Sassuolo:

Commit on average 13 fouls per game when playing away.
Receive on average 16 fouls per game when playing away (most in the league).
Have seen 2+ cards in 7/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 8/9 occasions.
Have scored in 6/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
Have conceded in 6/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
Key facts:

Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet against Cagliari in three of their last five Serie A games.
Cagliari have won just one of their last eight home games.
Sassuolo have won their last three away games, they could make it four for the first time in the top flight.
Cagliari have failed to score in their last two home games.
Analysis
Sassuolo are in fine form going into this one and if result go their way and they can pick up another win on the road, they may just find themselves late comers into the battle for a European spot.

Cagliari, on the other hand, have been dismal. They’ve won just ONE of their last EIGHT home games and have failed to score in the last two of those. They can be forgiven for a lack of motivation as they have nothing else really to play for but that could spell bad news given how strong the Neroverdi are at this present moment.

When these two play, cards are usually shown in abundance and I expect that to be true here.

Given the motivations of both sides, I’d expect Sassuolo to get a result and put the pressure on those above them.

Norwich vs Burnley | Saturday 18th July 2020, 12:30
Rewind to the first game of the season; Norwich took part in a thrilling match at Anfield and despite leaving empty-handed in terms of points, fans and pundits were equally optimistic that they could beat the drop.

The game was slick yet open, Teemu Pukki opened his Premier League account and Todd Cantwell impressed on his top-flight debut. The Canaries went toe-to-toe with the bookies second favourites for the title; they were bested on the night but were dubbed for survival if they could emulate the quality and endeavour they showed during the Premier Leagues curtain raiser.

Fast forward to their penultimate game however and they are already relegated, 10 points adrift at the foot of the league. Despite an early flurry, Pukki's goals dried up and since the turn of the year so have the points. Daniel Farke remained naively loyal to the style of play that saw Norwich rise to the EPL as champions of the second tier, a fatal decision that ultimately cost them as they continued to leak goals.

Due to their sealed fate, it is difficult to say exactly what XI Farke will name, however, I can confirm that Sam Byram, Grant Hanley, Christophe ZImmerman and Moritz Leitner are all ruled out.

Burnley and Sean Dyche, on the other hand, continue to defy expectations as a win Carrow Road would keep their hopes of a spot in the Europa League alive, mathematically at least…

With a slim hope of European football, Dyche won't be resting on his laurels and I expect him to name as stronger side as his has at his disposal. Jack Cork, Ashley Barnes, Ben Mee, Mathew Lowton and Charlie Taylor have all been recently ruled out, however, Jay Rodriguez has been deemed fit enough to be within contention to start.

This means that the Burnley team should be the following; Nick Pope; Phil Bardsley, Kevin Long, James Tarkowski, Erik Pieters; Johann-Berg Gudmundsson, Ashley Westwood, Robbie Brady, Dwight McNeil; Rodriguez and Chris Wood.

Arsenal and Manchester City travel to London’s Wembley Stadium on Saturday for the first of two FA Cup semifinals. The Gunners and Cityzens meet for the third time this season and Arsenal are still looking for their first goal in the matchup.

When the sides met at Arsenal in December, City posted three goals in the first half and cruised to a 3-0 win. The teams faced off again in Manchester to restart the Premier League season in June, and again, City won 3-0 after Arsenal center back David Luiz was sent off.

The matchup has largely been one-way traffic since Pep Guardiola took over in Manchester. City have won each of their last seven matches by multiple goals, scored at least three times in six of the seven games and held Arsenal scoreless in five. The collective aggregate score of those seven meetings is City 20, Arsenal 2.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Arsenal have been in good form of late though, winners of five of their last seven in all competitions including a critical 2-1 upset win against Liverpool in the league on Wednesday.

The Gunners’ defense had been much improved since switching to a back three, but they’ve also benefited from a fortunate run of poor finishing from opponents, according to expected goals models.

Arsenal lost the xG battle to both Tottenham and Liverpool, and were the beneficiaries of two Liverpool defensive errors that led to goals.

The Gunners back three was effective in neutralizing the attacks of Norwich, Southampton, Wolves and even Sheffield in the FA Cup, but the last two matches against better attacking units, cracks have started to appear.

Arsenal conceded 1.8 xG to Spurs and 2.6 xG to Liverpool, their second- and third-highest allowed since the restart. The only match where Arsenal allowed more scoring chances was the 3.6 xG Manchester City created on June 17.

Arsenal’s defensive numbers appear to have improved but they still have struggled immensely against teams who apply ball pressure to their back three, which Manchester City is sure to do.

The Cityzens, save for a performance blip against Bournemouth in the midweek with half the squad rotated, have been in dominant form. In the six matches since the restart prior to Wednesday in the Premier League, City averaged 2.95 xGF per game, the highest in the PL.

Gabriel Jesus has become an xG monster and he now leads the league in non-penalty expected goals for this season despite sharing minutes with Sergio Aguero. His finishing has been poor, but if he continues to get into good spaces to score, the goals will start piling up.

Both Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez are first and second this season in expected assists, and De Bruyne is first in xA since the restart as well.

Don’t be fooled by Arsenal’s recent run of good results, focus on the performances. And the performances suggest that Arsenal is a mid-table team, while City is the best in the Premier League.

I’ll back the Cityzens to reach the final and win by multiple goals. Much has been made of City’s defensive issues all season long, but with Aymeric Laporte in the side, they are much sturdier defensively, which is why they’ve kept clean sheets in six of their nine matches since the restart.

Roma vs Inter Milan | Sunday 19th July 2020, 3:45

What a way to end the weekend as the entertainment factory that is Serie A serves us up what looks like being a cracker in the capital.

By picking up only two points from the last nine available, league leaders Juventus left the door slightly ajar for their nearest rivals to stay in the title hunt ahead of their game with Lazio on Monday evening.

Atalanta surprisingly didn’t capitalise, spurning a 1-0 lead to take just a point from their trip to Verona, now it is over to Inter Milan to try and close the gap at the top of the table just to three points as they travel to fifth placed Roma.

Paulo Fonceca’s hosts have their own agenda though as they look to secure a return to European football, off the back of three straight wins they sit four points clear of seventh-placed Napoli but only one point ahead of in-form Milan in sixth, albeit with a game in-hand.

Both sides come in to this full of confidence and needing to claim all three points which really should make for a fascinating watch, so I am looking to combine a few markets to put a bet together at good odds.

Goals
The Giallorossi have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 10 of their last 12 league games while their opponents’ last eight Serie A games have also crossed that line, and when meeting here at the Stadio Olimpico, four of the last five have seen three or more goals – the last two of which had four, ending 2-2 and 1-3.

With both sides also combining to have 70% (46/66) of their total games this season feature more than two goals it’s with confidence I can add Over 2.5 Goals to the bet.

Sunday morning’s match between Bournemouth and Southampton has major implications in the relegation battle.

Watford’s loss to West Ham on Friday has given Bournemouth hope and the Cherries could pull level with Watford on points going into the final day of the season.

Watford have to play Manchester City and Arsenal to close out their schedule, so if the Cherries can take four points from their final two matches, they will likely stay up for another season.

Southampton have nothing to play for in this match, other than pride, as they have guaranteed themselves another season in the Premier League and can’t qualify for a Europa League spot.

Bournemouth
The Cherries got their first win at Vitality Stadium in over five months beating Leicester last Sunday. Even though they lost 2-1 to Manchester City in the mid-week, they won the expected goals battle 1.87 to 0.59 in the match, so things are starting to turn around for the Cherries.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Home-field advantage hasn’t been a thing for Bournemouth this season, as the Cherries sport a -3.39 expected goal differential and have earned just 21 points from 18 matches at the Vitality Stadium.

Their main issue has been their defense, which lets in 1.65 xG per match overall and 1.52 xG per match at home.

With the Saints bringing a red-hot offense to town, Sunday could be difficult day for the Cherries defensively.

Southampton
The Saints have been in good form since the restart, grabbing 12 of a possible 21 points and posting a +5 goal differential. If you throw out their performance against Manchester City, in which they lost the expected goals battle 0.70 to 3.53, the Saints have been dominant, winning on average by 0.57 xG per match (1.75 xGF, 1.18 xGA).

Southampton’s offense is starting to heat up too, as they are averaging 2.14 xGF in their last three matches.

Southampton have been one of the best road sides in the Premier League this season, ranking sixth in both expected goals for per match (1.60) and expected goals against per match (1.38) away from home.

They’ve been especially hot since the restart, going unbeaten in their last four away matches, with a +3.06 expected goal differential.

Even with nothing to play for, I think Southampton will be motivated to keep up their good run of form.

Leicester City visits Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday with European places fully up for grabs. The Foxes sit in fourth place, clinging to the final Champions League place, while Spurs sit in seventh, looking to breach into the top six and guarantee themselves Europa League football when the new season kicks off in less than two months.

While the performances haven’t exactly matched up, Spurs’ recent results have actually been fairly solid. In seven matches since the restart, only Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea have taken more points than Spurs’ 14.

Since getting thrashed at Sheffield United, Spurs notched a critical and deserved win last Sunday over Arsenal in the North London Derby, and followed it up with another solid attacking performance and a 3-1 win at Newcastle on Wednesday. It was the first PL match all season where Spurs won by multiple goals on the road.

Leicester have been the victims of both injuries and expected goals’ regression for the better part of the second half of the season. Since the restart, the Foxes sit 12th in the actual table with nine points, but fourth in the expected goal difference table.

Injuries to fullbacks Ben Chillwell and Ricardo Pereira, along with attacking midfielder James Maddison and the suspension of center back Çağlar Söyüncü has left Leicester City limping to the finish line and in desperate need of points entering the final two matches of the season against Spurs and Manchester United.

After a 4-1 collapse at Bournemouth where the Foxes finished with 10 men, Leicester rebounded at home on Thursday, rolling over Sheffield United in a 2-0, must-win performance.

The resurgence of Tottenham striker Harry Kane – who looked dead on his feet in back-to-back matches against Everton and Bournemouth – is the main reason why Tottenham’s attacking numbers have seen such a significant uptick.

Since Kane has been able to run in behind, get touches on the ball in the box, and looks healthy, the Spurs attack has transformed from a side who managed less than one xG combined in two matches vs Everton and Bournemouth into one that has now posted 1.82 vs. Arsenal and 1.75 vs. Newcastle.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Kane’s 0.68 xG/90 since the restart of the Premier League in June is a sign that he’s feeling healthy and getting into good scoring positions again. He ranks fourth in total xG created since the resumption and if Spurs are going to create big scoring chances, he’s likely to be on the end of them.

One concerning trend for Leicester City — who will be without three of its top four defenders — is its recent defensive issues on its travels. The Foxes haven’t won any of four road games since the restart, drawing two and losing two. They’ve allowed at least 1.2 xG in every away match since the restart, and generated at least one xG in attack.

Even though Real Madrid have already been crowned champions, there is still a ton to play for in heading into the final day of La Liga action. It’s Matchday 38, with seven of 10 matches kicking off at 3 p.m. ET.

There are a lot of scenarios to watch on Sunday, so here’s what’s on the line:

Atletico needs at least a draw to secure third place in the table and avoid having to qualify for the Champions League.

Sevilla needs a win and Atletico Madrid loss to avoid having to qualify for the Champions League, as Atletico holds the tiebreaker over them.

Villarreal can secure a Europa League spot with a win and or a Getafe/Real Sociedad draw or loss.

Getafe, Real Sociedad, Valencia, Granada, Athletic Bilbao, and Osasuna are all still alive for the final Europa League spot.

If Real Soceiedad finishes in sixth place and beats Athletic Bilbao in the Copa Del Rey Final, the seventh-place team in the table will earn a Europa League qualification spot.

Leganes are in the relegation zone, one point behind Celta Vigo. Since Celta Vigo holds the tie breaker over them, they need to beat Real Madrid and have Celta Vigo lose or draw against Espanyol to survive relegation.

Sevilla vs. Valencia
3 p.m. ET, beIN Sport Connect

Sevilla is pretty much stuck in the fourth place spot unless they win and Atletico Madrid loses to Real Sociedad. As for Valencia, if they are going to qualify for the Europa League, they need a win and a lot of help.

Sevilla
Sevilla has been one of the better sides during the second half of the La Liga season. Los Nervionenses are unbeaten in their past 14 matches and have outscored their opponents on average by 0.48 xG per match (1.61 xGF, 1.13 xGA).

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium has been been a fortress for Sevilla defensively, where they are allowing only 0.89 xG per match this season. They’ve also been dominant against teams below them in the table at home, going 9-5-1 and outscoring their opponents 24-to-12 in those matches. Sevilla also rested their star attackers for the first half against Sociedad on Thursday, so I expect them to put out their best lineup on Sunday.

Valencia
Valencia has been abysmal on the road this year, earning just 13 points in 18 matches. In terms of expected goals, Valencia has lost on average by 0.95 xG per game (0.95 xGF, 1.90 xGA), which ranks in the bottom five of La Liga.

As of late, they’ve been extremely poor on the road, picking up just two points in their past nine matches. They’ve been terrible on both ends of the pitch in those matches, losing the expected goals battle 17.72 to 4.96.

Analysis
With Sevilla needing a win to try and avoid Champions League qualification, I think they will be going all out trying to win this match. In my opinion, the current line provides a lot of value for the home side. Therefore, I am going to back Sevilla to grab all three points in this match

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Sociedad
3 p.m. ET, beIN Sports Connect

Atletico can sit back and play for the draw in this match, but three points would guarantee them third place in the table and spot in the Champions League next year. Therefore, I think they will be giving this match their full attention and will be going for the win.

Real Sociedad has two shots at qualifying for the Europa League, if they win Sunday or in the Copa Del Ray final, they are in. If they lose or draw they will need some of the teams below to stumble on the final day.

Atletico Madrid
Atletico has turned around their season since the restart. They entered the break in sixth place, but have since vaulted themselves up into third place by going unbeaten in their past 10 matches. In those 10 matches, Atletico has been their usual dominant selves defensively allowing only 1.01 xG per match. In fact, they’ve allowed just three goals since the restart against teams not named Barcelona.

Atletico has also been good offensively since the restart, averaging 1.53 xG per match, which ranks third behind Real Madrid and Barcelona. I think they will assert their dominance over Real Sociedad in this match and grab all three points.

Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad has been poor since the restart. Going into the break, they were on the cusp of a Champions League berth, but now find themselves fighting for the final Europa league spot in the table.

Since the restart, Sociedad has earned only nine points from their last 10 matches and have struggled to find the back of the net averaging only 1.16 xG per match. If Real is going to miss out on European football this season, it will be due to their performances on the road.

Sociedad has a -6.14 xG differential on the road, which ranks in the bottom half of La Liga. If Atletico gives this match their full attention, I don’t see how Real Sociedad is going to get a result.

Espanyol vs. Celta Vigo
3 p.m. ET, beIN Sports Connect

Celta Vigo needs a win to secure their place in the top flight of Spanish football next season. They are fortunate to draw Espanyol in the final week of the season, as the home has already been relegated to the Segunda Division. Celta Vigo will no doubt be monitoring the Leganes/Real Madrid match throughout the match.

Espanyol
Espanyol has been the worst team in La Liga this season and the worst team since the restart, losing their past eight matches. It’s hard to find good things to say about Espanyol, as the underlying metrics are not pretty. Espanyol ranks in the bottom five of La Liga in expected goals for and against.

If there is one positive, it’s they are a tad underrated at home. Based on Understat’s expected points metric, the Periquitos should have 8.39 more points at home this season than they currently have.

Espanyol will want to make their last match in La Liga a memorable one for the fans, even if they can’t be in the stadium.

Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo’s performance on the road this season is why they are in the relegation battle. The Célticos have earned only 13 points from their 18 away matches, including only two wins. The underlying metrics are not pretty either, as they’ve only managed to generate 0.90 xG per match, while allowing 1.46 xG per match.

The Célticos have also been in a bad run of form recently going winless in their last six matches. In those six matches, they’ve haven’t been very competitive, losing the expected goals battle 6.59 to 9.07. Going up against Espanyol, should provide the Célticos with an easy victory, but their road form and recent form are cause for concern.

Analysis
Even though Celta Vigo is the only team with something to play for, I think they are severely overpriced in this match, so I am going to back the home side to get at least a draw

Levante vs. Getafe
3 p.m. ET, beIN Sport Connect

Getafe essentially needs all three points from this match and a little help to secure Europa League football next season. There are a couple scenarios where they could earn European football with a draw, but they would need a lot of help. Levante has absolutely nothing to play for in this match other than pride.

Levante
Even though they had nothing to play for in their last match against Celta Vigo, Levante came out firing, scoring to two goals in the first 30 minutes of the match, on their way to a 3-2 victory.

Levante has been in OK form since the break earning 13 of a possible 30 points. The underlying metrics show they’ve been a little better than their results have shown, winning the expected goals battle 12.17 to 11.66 in their last 10 matches.

Even though they have nothing to play for, their last match against Celta Vigo, Levante showed they are not a team that can be taken lightly.

Getafe
The restart has not been kind to Getafe, who was on the cusp of a Champions League berth before the world came to halt. Since then they have gathered only eight points from their past 10 matches and need some help if they are going to qualify for the Europa League.

The underlying metrics since the restart are not pretty for Getafe. In their past 10 matches, Getafe has struggled to find the back of the net, averaging only 0.86 xG per match, which is significantly lower than their 1.29 xG per match average before the break.

Getafe has also been struggling on the road recently, going winless in their last five matches and scoring only two goals in the process. Even though they are the only ones with something to play for in this match, it’s not a guarantee they’ll walk out of the Ciutat de València Stadium with three points.