Goldsheet NFL playoffs went 3-1 again last week, bringing total to 6-2 ATS for playoffs. This weeks picks are:


Atlanta 36-28

New England 27-17

What did the line open at? What's it at now? Is it mostly public or wiseguy action?

Michael Grodsky, vice president of marketing, William Hill US: We opened the line for the NFC Championship Game at Atlanta minus-4.5 (-110). For the last few days, the line has been at a steady Atlanta minus-5 (-110), and it has just now moved to Atlanta minus-5.5 (-110). We are expecting Green Bay money to come later on during the weekend before game time. For public/sharp money for these games, it is tough to say, since this is a highly bet and anticipated game that everyone is going to tune in to. Public money will be the majority with this game.

Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports, MGM Resorts International: Opened Atlanta minus-4, and it is currently minus-4.5. There have been a couple of sharp plays on the Falcons at minus-4, and a ton of public money on Green Bay.

Chris Andrews, sports book director, South Point Casino: We opened Atlanta minus-5; a wiseguy took it right away, and I went to minus-4. It has slowly crept up from there. I'm at minus-5, but I see it going higher with wiseguy and public action.

Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management, CG Technology: The line opened minus-4.5, and it is now minus-5.5. The public is betting Green Bay (both money line and spread), and the heavy pro action is on the Falcons.
What's the biggest bet you've taken?

Grodsky: The biggest bet so far for this game came in on Friday, and that was a $76,000 money line wager on Green Bay (plus-175) to win $133,000 ($209,000 total). We also took a $74,800 bet on Atlanta minus-4.5 (-110) on Monday to come away with $142,800 total.

Rood: Low six-figure.

Andrews: $50,000 on Falcons minus-4.5.

Simbal: $40,000.
Any prop bets that people are betting on?

Grodsky: We opened prop wagering on Friday. Taylor Gabriel scoring the first touchdown in the game (18-1) has been popular early. Good early two-way action on "Will there be a score in the first five minutes of the game?" with the YES minus-115 and NO minus-105 and "Will there be three unanswered scores by either team?" with the YES minus-190 and the NO plus-170. Largest early prop ticket is on the "total sacks" under 4.5 (+120).

Rood: Packers first to eight points at plus-115.

Andrews: Ryan's completions over. It opened 23.5 and is now up to 24.5.

Simbal: Yes, that Julio Jones will score a touchdown. Also whether Aaron Rodgers will hit the over in passing yards.
Which team will you be rooting for from your book's perspective?

Grodsky: From our side of things, we will most likely need Atlanta as we are expecting a large amount of Green Bay money to come in this weekend. Bettors will back the red-hot Aaron Rodgers. Right now, 62 percent of the total dollars wagered on point spread is on Atlanta, but Green Bay has 84 percent of the total dollars wagered on the money line. More point spread money will be coming in for Green Bay.

Rood: Falcons.

Andrews: Falcons, if they can beat the teasers.

Simbal: Falcons.

What did the line open at? What's it at now? Is it mostly public or wiseguy action?

Grodsky: The line for the AFC Championship Game opened at New England minus-5.5 (-110). Like the NFC Championship Game, the line has been steady for a few days. The line has been New England minus-6 for a few days, and that is the current line. Public/sharp money is similar to the NFC Championship Game as well. The public is all over this one, as it is tough to figure out the public/sharp action with the popularity of this game.

Rood: Opened Patriots minus-5.5, and it is currently minus-6 even. There's good two-way action on this game right now from both the public and sharps.

Andrews: Opened minus-5.5 and is now up to minus-6 with wiseguy and public action.

Simbal: Opened 5.5 and is now up to minus-6. Public action is split but slightly heavier on New England.
What's the biggest bet you've taken?

Grodsky: Our two biggest bets so far for both conference championship games are on New England. The biggest is a $110,000 ticket on the New England point line (minus-5.5, -110) to win $100,000.

Rood: Low-mid six figures.

Andrews: $20,000 on Patriots minus-5.5.

Simbal: $60,000.
Any prop bets that people are betting on?

Grodsky: We opened prop wagering Friday. Eli Rogers to score the first touchdown in the game (30-1) has been popular early. Largest of the early prop bets that we have taken is on the under (-110) for LeGarrette Blount's rushing yards: 61.5

Rood: Le'Veon Bell to score first touchdown at 5-1.

Andrews: Sacks under four. Opened four (minus-110) and is now at under four (minus-145).

Simbal: Brady to throw more than 2.5 touchdowns. Also that Blount will score a touchdown.
Which team will you be rooting for from your book's perspective?

Grodsky: As of right now, we will need New England to win but not cover, as we expect Pittsburgh money line to come in soon. There is overwhelming New England point spread money at the moment, so we will be cheering for Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. Currently, 84 percent of the total point spread dollars wagered are on New England, with 52 percent of the total money line dollars also on New England.

Rood: Kind of a hard game to predict our final position. I believe we will need Patriots to win but not cover. Teasers might change that, though.

Andrews: Hard to say, but probably Steelers.

Simbal: Steelers.

Beg Ben career as a playoff road underdog

+ 2.5 vs KC Win 18-16
+7 vs Den (23-16)*P*
+ 3 vs Denver (Won 34-17)
+9.5 vs colts (won 21-18)

Teasers have not been kind to the house lately. Order of how players teasing today
1. GB & NE
2. GB & PIT
3. NE & ATL
4. ATL & PIT

2/ Per @TheMirageLV Jeff S on GB-ATL: "All our liability is on moneyline on Packers. Moneyline ticket count 10/1 on Packers."

Three guys started with $300 and bet the pack ML since they were 4-6 in first 10 games.

They now have 28K and rolled it on the pack ML against Atlanta.

If they win they will roll it again.

Could be some of the action on the 10/1


burytheb

Wow. But I would be hedging now and lock in a profit.

guys did the same thing last season, when they had 6 put they collected , 3 didn't join this season

Vegas bettor started w/$300 on Packers to win game 8 weeks ago - LETTING IT RIDE each gm since - has DONE IT AGAIN.

47,963.10 to win 76,176.70

Patriots: 10-3-1 OVER last 14 home playoff games

Steelers: 16-6-1 OVER last 23 playoff games and 8-4 OVER last 12 games in this series.

NFL Championship round games 10-5-1 OVER in games with a posted total of more than 46 points

Brady is just 15-16-1 ATS in 31 career playoff games, that’s a success rate of 48.4 percent. Digging further, since the 2007-08 season, Brady is a bankroll-busting 7-10 ATS (41.2 percent) in the playoffs.

When Brady has been listed as a playoff favorite he is 11-13-1 ATS (45.3 percent), but it gets a little better when he’s at Gillette Stadium, where New England boasts a 10-8-1 ATS (55.6 percent) record.

On the other side of the ball, Roethlisberger is 11-6-2 ATS in 19 career playoff games - good for a profitable success rate of 64.7 percent. As a playoff underdog, like the Steelers will be this week, Big Ben is 4-3-1 ATS (57.1 percent) and he’s 4-1-2 (80 percent) as a playoff road team.

The Mirage LV ... on PIT-NE:


Opened 5.5, but at 6 since Monday night.

"The sharps haven't really gotten involved"

"We've taken 6-figure bets from casino players on Patriots -5.5 & Steelers +6"

"The game's pretty balanced. Ticket count 3/2 on Patriots, but money pretty much equal"

Brady & Patriots when favored at home have won 86% of their games outright & covered 59% (68% when under a TD) of the time

BetShare
NFL PITvsNE

Spread
HereWeGo (+6) 37%
Patriots (-6) 63%

ML
Steelers 33%
Patriots 67%

Tot (50.5)
Ov 65%
Un 35%

Ticket count for PITvsNE (82,223) now far exceeds GBvsATL (46,312).