Early Sweet 16 line movement at BetMGM


Spread:

Tennessee -4.5 to -5.5 vs. FAU
UCLA -1.5 to -2.5 vs. Zags
Alabama -6.5 to -7.5 vs. SDST

Total:

MSU-KSU 136.5 to 137.5
UConn-Ark 139.5 to 140.5
Tenn-FAU 132.5 to 131.5
Miami-HOU 138.5 to 137.5

Early public teams (+60% of bets) for Sweet 16 at BetMGM


70% of bets on UConn -3.5 vs. Arkansas
66% on Princeton +9.5 vs. Creighton
63% on Miami +7.5 vs. Houston

Early Sweet 16 betting at
BetMGM


Most bet games
1. Michigan St-Kansas St
2. Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee
3. Arkansas vs UConn

Most bet teams
1. K-State +1.5
2. UConn -3.5
3. Tennessee -5.5

Most bet teams $
1. UConn -3.5
2. K-State +1.5
3. Tennessee -5.5

8-seeds and 9-seeds in the Sweet 16 have gone 18-9 SU and 18-8-1 ATS L27

8. Arkansas +3.5 vs. UConn
9. FAU +5.5 vs. Tennessee

Last 2 years Sweet 16 games have gone 14-2 to the UNDER.

Since 2012, double-digit seeds vs. non-double-digit seeds in Sweet 16 have gone 13-4-1 ATS

Princeton +9.5 vs. Creighton.

Thursday Sweet 16 betting at
@BetMGM


Most bet games
1. Michigan State-Kansas State
2. Florida Atlantic-Tennessee
3. Arkansas-UConn

Most bet teams
1. Michigan State -1.5
2. K-State +1.5
3. UConn -3.5

Most bet teams $
1. UConn -3.5
2. K-State +1.5
3. Tennessee -5.5

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (641) GONZAGA vs. (642) UCLA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (GONZAGA) - excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games
(29-6 since 1997.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1 -0.1 units).

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (641) GONZAGA vs. (642) UCLA
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (GONZAGA) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game)
(30-7 since 1997.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1 -1.1 units).

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (639) ARKANSAS vs. (640) CONNECTICUT
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total (ARKANSAS) - in the "sweet 16" round of the NCAA tournament
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (639) ARKANSAS vs. (640) CONNECTICUT
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total (CONNECTICUT) - in the "sweet 16" round of the NCAA tournament
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (637) MICHIGAN ST vs. (638) KANSAS ST
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total (KANSAS ST) - in the "sweet 16" round of the NCAA tournament
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (637) MICHIGAN ST vs. (638) KANSAS ST
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total (MICHIGAN ST) - in the "sweet 16" round of the NCAA tournament
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (635) FLA ATLANTIC vs. (636) TENNESSEE
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total (FLA ATLANTIC) - in the "sweet 16" round of the NCAA tournament
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (635) FLA ATLANTIC vs. (636) TENNESSEE
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total (TENNESSEE) - in the "sweet 16" round of the NCAA tournament
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units)

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (641) GONZAGA vs. (642) UCLA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total (GONZAGA) - in the "sweet 16" round of the NCAA tournament
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (641) GONZAGA vs. (642) UCLA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total (UCLA) - in the "sweet 16" round of the NCAA tournament
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Over the past 15 years, Duke has been eliminated by 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament. Only three of the 12 went on to win its next game – 2017 South Carolina, 2013 Louisville and 2009 Villanova.

Sweet 16 Games
- Laying big points seems to be getting more & more risky in the Sweet 16 in recent years, as favorites of 5 points or more are 30-13 SU but just 17-26 ATS (39.5%) since ’11. (Against Creighton -10, Alabama -7.5, Houston -7, Tennessee -5.5)

- Sweet 16 favorites of 8 points or more are on a 26-7-3 UNDER (78.8%) the total run allowing 62.7 PPG (UNDER 140 CRE-PRI)

- Sweet 16 #1 and #2 seeds have taken care of business lately and combined are on a 34-9 SU and 27-15-1 ATS (64.3%) run over the last eight seasons. (Alabama -7.5, Houston, -7, Texas -4, UCLA -2)

- Sweet 16 round is usually the end of the line for double-digit seeds, however, they have been very competitive as underdogs, going 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) in that role since 2011. (Princeton +10)

- In Sweet 16 games between teams “both not supposed to be there,” or both seeded 5 or worse, the worse seeded team is 11-6 SU and ATS (64.7%) since ’01. (Princeton +10)

- Better-seeded teams playing as underdogs or pick 'ems in Sweet 16 games are on a 6-1 SU and ATS (85.7%) surge, with all but one of the last six games also going UNDER the total. (Kansas St +2, UNDER 137.5 KSU-MSU)

- Since 2010, in Sweet 16 games involving at least one non-major conference program, UNDER the total is 22-11 (66.7%). (UNDER 140 CRE-PRI, UNDER 137 ALA-SDSU, UNDER 138 HOU-MIA, UNDER 130.5 TEN-FAU, UNDER 145.5 UCLA-GON)

- Over the last 23 years, there have been 23 Sweet 16 games with totals of 128 or less, and UNDER the total is 16-6-1 (72.7%). (NONE – closest is 130.5 TEN-MIA)

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (639) ARKANSAS vs. (640) CONNECTICUT
Favoring: CONNECTICUT against the spread.
CONNECTICUT is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 82.5, OPPONENT 57.2 - (Rating = 5*)

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (639) ARKANSAS vs. (640) CONNECTICUT
Favoring: CONNECTICUT against the spread.
CONNECTICUT is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 84, OPPONENT 58.5 - (Rating = 5*)

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (639) ARKANSAS vs. (640) CONNECTICUT
Favoring: CONNECTICUT on the first half line.
CONNECTICUT is 10-0 (+10 Units) against the 1rst half line after 2 consecutive non-conference games this season.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 42.7, OPPONENT 26.7 - (Rating = 6*)

Thursday, 03/23/2023 (639) ARKANSAS vs. (640) CONNECTICUT
Favoring: CONNECTICUT on the first half line.
CONNECTICUT is 12-1 (+10.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after a non-conference game this season.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 41.2, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 5*)

Big 12
KANSAS ST (#3, EAST) vs. MICHIGAN ST (#7-Big Ten)

TEXAS (#2, MIDWEST) vs. XAVIER (#3-Big East)

Trends

- Favorites are 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS (68.8%) in the last 16 NCAA tournament games between the Big 12 and Big Ten. (Against Kansas St +2)

- Big 12 teams are just 10-12 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) in their last 22 NCAA tourney games vs the Big East, but have won five straight while going 3-2 ATS. (Against Texas -4)

NCAA Tournament
Michigan State vs Kansas State (@ MSG)
— Michigan State (21-12) ranked #24 by KenPom
— Tempo: #303
— Experience: #140
— Continuity: #107
— Michigan State won seven of its last ten games.
— Last 20 years, Michigan State is 6-3 in Sweet 16 games.
— Spartans have #69 eFG% defense in country.
— Spartans are 9-5 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Michigan State is 5-8 vs teams ranked in top 40.
— Michigan State’s schedule, to this point: #5
— bench minutes: #248
— Michigan State’s best win: 69-60 over #11 Marquette

— Kansas State (25-9) ranked #21 by KenPom
— Tempo: #41
— Experience: #30
— Continuity: #316
— K-State won six of its last eight games.
— K-State allowed 76+ points in seven of its nine losses.
— Last 20 years, Wildcats are 2-0 in Sweet 16 (2010/2018)
— K-State is 8-6 vs teams ranked in top 40.
— Wildcats force turnovers 20.8% of time (#52)
— K-State’s schedule, to this point: #21
— bench minutes: #324
— K-State’s best win: 116-103 at #5 Texas.

— This is the first #3-7 matchup in this round in four years.
— Last 10 years, #7-seed is 3-2 vs #3-seed in this round.

Arkansas vs UConn (@ Las Vegas)
— Arkansas (22-13) ranked #18 by KenPom
— Tempo: #50
— Experience: #263
— Continuity: #333
— Arkansas won three of its last four games.
— Arkansas was in Elite 8 each of last two years.
— Hogs have #24 eFG% defense in country.
— Hogs are forcing turnovers 20.3% of time (#63)
— Arkansas is 5-6 ATS as an underdog this season.
— Arkansas’ schedule, to this point: #19
— bench minutes: #297
— Arkansas’ best win: 72-71 over #9 Kansas.

— UConn (21-14) ranked #4 by KenPom
— Tempo: #213
— Experience: #115
— Continuity: #248
— UConn won 11 of its last 13 games.
— Huskies beat two mid-majors (Iona/Saint Mary’s) to get here.
— UConn is 1-5 in games decided by 6 or less points.
— UConn is in Sweet 16 since 2014, when Kevin Ollie was coach.
— Hurley is 2-3 in NCAA games; this is his first Sweet 16.
— UConn’s schedule, to this point: #35
— bench minutes: #216
— UConn’s best win: 82-67 over #2 Alabama

— Last 15 years, #8-seeds are 3-3 SU in Sweet 16 games.
— Last five years, #4-seeds are 3-9 SU in Sweet 16, 1-2 if favored.

Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee (@ MSG)
— Florida Atlantic (33-3) ranked #22 by KenPom
— Tempo: #143
— Experience: #148
— Continuity: #24
— FAU won its last nine games.
— FAU gave up 80-86-74 points in its three losses.
— Owls split pair of games vs SEC TY (loss to Ole Miss/beat Florida)
— Owls have #15 eFG% defense in country, #25 eFG% offense
— FAU is 7-1 against top 100 teams.
— FAU’s schedule, to this point: #125
— bench minutes: #15
— FAU’s best win: 50-46/66-62 over #32 North Texas

— Tennessee (25-10) ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #278
— Experience: #131
— Continuity: #114
— Last 14 games: 0-7 if they allow 60+ points, 7-0 if they allow less than 60
— Tennessee won five of its last seven games.
— Last 20 years, Vols are 1-5 in Sweet 16 games.
— Since 1997, Barnes is 3-4 in Sweet 16 games (0-1 since ’08)
— Barnes is 3-17 ATS in his last 20 NCAA tourney games.
— Tennessee’s schedule, to this point: #38
— bench minutes: #29
— Tennessee’s best win: 68-59 over #2 Alabama


— Last five years, #4-seeds are 3-9 SU in Sweet 16, 1-2 if favored.

Gonzaga vs UCLA (@ T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas)
— Gonzaga (30-5) ranked #7 by KenPom
— Tempo: #40
— Experience: #44
— Continuity: #18
— Gonzaga won its last eleven games.
— Last 7 tournaments, Gonzaga is 4-3 in Sweet 16 games.
— Zags are shooting 58.7% inside arc (#2), 38.4% on arc (#10)
— Zags have #245 eFG% defense.
— Gonzaga is 0-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Gonzaga’s schedule, to this point: #58
— bench minutes: #314
— Gonzaga’s best win: 100-90 over #2 Alabama

— UCLA (31-5) ranked #3 by KenPom
— Tempo: #245
— Experience: #107
— Continuity: #150
— UCLA won 11 of its last 12 games.
— Since 2009, Bruins are 1-4 in Sweet 16 games.
— In his career, Cronin is 1-2 in Sweet 16 games.
— UCLA forces turnovers 23.4% of time (#11)
— Bruins are 31-5 this year, but 2-3 in T-Mobile Arena
— UCLA’s schedule, to this point: #42
— bench minutes: #237
— UCLA’s best win: 82-73 over #10 Arizona.

— Gonzaga beat UCLA 93-90 in OT in national semi-finals two years ago.
— Last eight years, favorites are 4-4 ATS in #2-3 seed games in this round.
— Last 10 years, #2-seeds are 7-4 SU vs #3-seeds in this round
— Both teams played their conference tournament in Las Vegas two weeks ago.

Sweet 16 round since 2016...
favs 14-22-2 ATS