let's get back at it after the International Break

in the French Ligue today Lille/St Etienne we have 28% on the DRAW at +228 with the sides at 37/35

One of my favorites threads,always interesting reading. GL

The Premier League is back bright and early Saturday morning with Arsenal hosting Tottenham in the North London Derby, but here’s a quick look at the most recent results and season trends before getting to the Week 12 preview.

Week 11 Results:
Home 5 of 10 (+0.63 units)
Away 4 of 10 (+6.27 units)
Draw 1 of 10 (-6.74 units)

Season Results:
Home 50 of 110 (+2.34 units)
Away 35 of 110 (-4.66 units)
Draw 25 of 110 (-1.09 units)

Most Profitable Moneyline Bets:
Burnley +19 units
Huddersfield +10 u
Watford +6.5 u
Man City +3.56 u
Brighton +3.33 u

Least profitable EPL teams:
West Ham -7.05 u
West Brom -5.26 u
Everton -5.17 u
Swansea -4.82 u
Southampton -4.67 u

Title Odds via BetOnline:
Man City 1/6 (31 points)
Man Utd 14/1 (23 points)
Tottenham 14/1 (23 points)
Chelsea 16/1 (22 points)
Arsenal 66/1 (19 points)
Liverpool 66/1 (19 points)
Burnley 1000/1 (19 points)

Manchester City have won 9 consecutive Premier League games and BetOnline has placed +500 odds on them breaking Arsenal’s record win streak of 14 back in 2001-02. You can bet that they won’t achieve this feat at -800 odds.

This weekend’s marquee matchup is the North London Derby between Tottenham and Arsenal. This is arguably the biggest game of the season for both clubs, and the importance is even higher now that Tottenham have finally overtaken Arsenal in the table over the last 1+ year. We’ve seen some small line movement toward Tottenham since opening at Pinnacle, moving from +202 to +189. The betting breakdown has been pretty even so far with 40% of tickets on Tottenham, 30% on Arsenal and 20% on the Draw. I’m really tempted to take Arsenal to win at home here, but just can’t do it. I’m laying off this one and hoping the Gunners can at least get a point against their rivals.

This weekend isn’t going to be as exciting as Week 11 for value plays with big underdogs, but hopefully we’ll be even more profitable. The first value play I’ll be taking is the Swansea/Burnley Draw +212. This is the sweet spot for draws with a very low total of 2 goals and short 3-way moneyline. We’ve also seen a little bit of reverse-line movement on the draw from +218 to +212 since opening at Pinnacle. I’m still really low on Swansea this season which I say every time I bet on one of their matches, but this is one they have to at least get a point from. Hope for a 0-0 or 1-1 finish and take the draw at +212.

The other draw I really like is Brighton and Stoke City at +217. This is the final game of Week 12 and will be played on Monday afternoon, right before the Week 13 matches start. Again, this game is in the wheelhouse for the draw with a low total of 2 goals, and very close 3-way moneylines on the home side, away side, and draw. Bettors have been heavy on Brighton so far and the line has moved from +155 to +138, but I think that has just created more value on the draw +217.

Most Lopsided:
94% on Chelsea (-163) at West Brom
71% on Brighton (+138) vs. Stoke
71% on Watford (+113) vs. West Ham

Biggest Line Moves:
Bournemouth (+110 to -119) vs. Huddersfield
Crystal Palace (+168 to +139) vs. Everton

Arsenal have won their last 10 Premier League home matches, spanning from last April.

Arsenal went into the international break with a 3-1 loss to Manchester City, dropping them to sixth in the table. A win on Saturday would move the Gunners only one point behind their North London rivals, but their recent record against Tottenham is quite poor. Arsenal have not won against Spurs in the league since March 2014 and lost 2-0 in their last meeting.

Spurs’ victory over Crystal Palace before the international break sent them into third, behind Manchester United only on goal difference. They have not won at the Emirates since November 2010, but they have started well away from Wembley this season, with four wins and only one loss in their first five away matches.

TEAM NEWS

Arsenal will be without Olivier Giroud and Santi Cazorla for this match, but Danny Welbeck, Rob Holding, Shkodran Mustafi, and David Ospina could all be available, according to Physioroom.com.

Spurs will be without Toby Alderweireld, Victor Wanyama, and Erik Lamela with various long term injuries. They are likely to have Harry Kane, Dele Alli, Harry Winks, and Hugo Lloris back fit though, according to Physioroom.com.

TOTTENHAM: HARRY KANE

Kane has a phenomenal record against Arsenal with six goals in his last five league appearances against them. He’s started the season with eight goals in 10 league matches, and he’ll look to continue both of those records and get his first ever win at the Emirates Stadium.

PREDICTION

Arsenal have been unable to beat Spurs for a while now, but they are very good at the Emirates, so they likely won’t lose either. If they aren’t going to win and they aren’t going to lose, that leaves a draw as the result.

Prediction: 1-1 Draw

With all the World Cup 2018 pots decided and international friendly scores settled, international football takes a hiatus for four months and club football makes a return this weekend. It’s been more than three months into the season, but the Premier League season is not even one-third over yet. In the twelfth game-week of the season, Liverpool will host Southampton at Anfield on Saturday afternoon.

Jurgen Klopp’s team are sitting fifth on 19 points, within touching distance of Chelsea (22 points) in fourth. Before the November international break commenced, Liverpool had run into a bit of form winning the last three games and scoring 15 goals in the last five. Liverpool need that form to continue if they are to get back in to the top-four over the next few game weeks. They will also need that sort of a form to ensure that they can overcome Southampton, as under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool have only managed one win against the Saints. With some key players (Salah, Sturridge, Oxlade-Chamberlain) rested during the international break and a few others having come back from injuries (Coutinho, Lallana, and Henderson), Liverpool will be hopeful of ending their winless run against Southampton

Mauricio Pellegrino, who appeared for Liverpool 13 times between January and May 2005, now heads to Anfield as a rival manager. His side are currently 13th in the league with 13 points and while they are defensively good, the Saints have struggled to score goals this season. The Saints are in underwhelming form this season and on top of that, their top defender – Virgil van Dijk – is going to play against the club that chased him fervently during the summer and that still hope to sign him in January. They have scored only nine times in their eleven games thus far, while conceding eleven. Based on xG estimates, they should have about 15 points, which would have put them at least two places above their actual position.

INTERESTING STATS

Liverpool and Southampton have played 84 top flight league matches and the Reds have won 39, drawn 21, and lost 24. Liverpool have scored 124 goals (72 at home) against the Saints, while conceding 95 times (31 at Anfield).
While Liverpool’s record seems better in the last four years – 7 played, 3 won, 3 drawn and 1 game lost – with 10 goals from the Reds and 5 from the Saints, Liverpool have not beaten Southampton in the last five attempts in all competitions, not even scoring in the last four matches against Southampton.
Going by the Club Elo Ratings, Southampton have won the most Elo points – 198.3 – against Liverpool. This means that although the Saints have been traditionally a weaker team than Liverpool, they have upset the Reds the most.
Southampton are also one of Jurgen Klopp’s bogey teams. The German has managed seven games against the Saints but has only won once, losing thrice and drawing thrice. Klopp has managed against a Pellegrino side before though.

TEAM NEWS

Sadio Mane and Nathaniel Clyne will both be unavailable to face their former club but Adam Lallana, Dejan Lovren and Alex Oxlade Chamberlain will be fit to at least make the bench. Jordan Henderson also did not feature for England during the break and should be available for selection on Saturday. Philippe Coutinho’s back problems seemed to have gotten over as he lined up for Brazil against England. He too should be available for selection.

For Southampton, Mario Lemina has recovered from his ankle injury and should be available for Pellegrino to select on Saturday. All other players are available giving the Argentine manager a chance to put forward his best eleven.

THE VERDICT

Last season, Southampton were one of those sides that provided the template for effective defensive organization against Liverpool. They did not give away a single goal in four games last season. But this season, the Saints’ defense is a bit leaky (xGA of 13.39). Further, Liverpool have added Salah to their firepower and also shown the ability to break down stubborn defenses this season. With Southampton constrained in their scoring and Liverpool confident in theirs, Saturday’s game should end in a win for Liverpool, even if they are made to work hard for it.

Liverpool 2 – 0 Southampton

Manchester United welcome Newcastle United to Old Trafford this weekend in one of the most iconic fixtures of the Premier League history. The Magpies may not be the force they once were in the early 2000s, but they still attract attention and this match will be one to look forward to for the neutral. An extra layer of intrigue has been added this season as it will see Jose Mourinho go up against one of his long-term rivals in Rafa Benitez. The latter may not be at the top of the European game at this point, but it is difficult to argue with the job he is doing at St James’ Park and if a takeover does happen in the next few weeks, the potential of the club will only increase.

It is important that Manchester United take the points this weekend as they are currently trailing their rivals by eight points and they can’t afford to let that gap grow any further. After some tricky fixtures of late, they will look at Newcastle as a team that they should be beating and a more attack-minded performance is likely. Romelu Lukaku has had a difficult last few weeks for his club and he will see this as a great opportunity to return to scoring ways.

Newcastle United have lost their last two Premier League fixtures after a promising start, which has caused relegation fears to return to the fan-base. It is difficult to see them getting pulled into real trouble, but it is crucial that they deliver a fighting performance on Saturday to show a reaction. They haven’t had a lot of luck at Old Trafford down the years, but they did manage to secure a win there in 2013 and they will use that as motivation for this weekend.

INTERESTING STATS

Romelu Lukaku has scored five goals and contributed four assists in his eight meetings with Newcastle.

If Newcastle United win at Old Trafford on Saturday, Rafa Benitez will become the first manager to win at the ground with three different clubs.

Spurs head into the weekend third in the table, but with an eight point gap to leaders Manchester City they will be eager to prove they are genuine contenders for silverware against their big rivals.

Arsene Wenger’s side are a further four points behind Spurs and desperately need a victory to boost their chances of a top four finish this season.

Pochettino faces a late selection dilemma, with a number of key players struggling with injuries.

Harry Kane and Dele Alli both pulled out of the England squad for the games against Germany and Brazil, although the pair should be fit to face Arsenal.

Hugo Lloris and Jan Vertonghen are also likely to be available for selection, while Harry Winks could be in contention for a place on the bench. Toby Alderweireld, Michel Vorm and Victor Wanyama are still sidelined.

Olivier Giroud is a big doubt for Arsenal after suffering a thigh injury while playing for France. Santi Cazorla and Rob Holding have been ruled out of the match.

Arsenal are marginal favourites to win the game, although Spurs can take plenty of heart from their recent record against the Gunners.

Pochettino’s side have won two and drawn four of their last six league meetings with Arsenal and their record away from home throughout 2017 is also excellent.

No side has won more Premier League away games during the calendar year than Spurs (10), while they have also scored a league-high 37 goals on the road in 2017.

Despite their recent struggles against Spurs, Wenger’s side head into the game full of confidence. The Gunners have won their last ten league games at the Emirates Stadium, including five out of five this season.

With Spurs taking just nine points from a possible 48 from games against last season’s top six sides since Pochettino was appointed in 2014, the home side could be worth backing to come out on top this weekend.

Spurs have already lost against Chelsea and Manchester United this season and unless that record improves quickly it seems unlikely that they will mount a serious title challenge.

BetShare
ARS/TOT

Spread
ARS (0 & -0.5) 20%
TOT (0 & +0.5) 80%

ML
Arsenal 23%
Tottenham 32%
Draw 45%

Tot (3)
Ov 62%
Un 38%

i'll take the bait here as this side $'s is getting action

[202418] FSV MAINZ 05 -102

YTD
23-16-2 +12.60

these two have drawn 5 times in L10 gms combined.

SOC Karpaty DRAW +195

glta

Mainz is creeping up after lineups and a wager shift

after the lineups the Bayern Munich/Augsburg total has flipped

BetShare
LEI/MCI

Spread
LEI (+1.5) 37%
MCI (-1.5) 63%

ML
Leicester 28%
Man City 37%
Draw 35%

Tot (3.5)
Ov 58%
Un 42%

[202418] FSV MAINZ 05 -102.........W

YTD
24-16-2 +13.60