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CNOTES
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Hilltoppers best-kept betting secret in college football?
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are tied as the second-most profitable team in FBS college football. They covered in their first five games this season and each of their final nine games last season and they put the incredible 14-game money streak on the line Thursday against the Troy Trojans.
So, are they the best-kept betting secret in college football?
“From a value perspective, unfortunately, I think the ship has already sailed when it comes to the Hilltoppers,” cautions Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “They were an under-the-radar team early this season, but upset road wins against Kentucky and Arkansas State have brought them some attention, and now we find them favored away from home for just the second time in program history at the FBS level. Troy is coming off a miserable 2011 campaign, but looks to be on its way back up here in 2012. All things considered, this is a tough spot to lay points with WKU against a proven Sun Belt performer.”
But not all of the Covers Experts share the same opinion. Ted Sevransky says the smart money is pouring in on Troy this week and he wouldn’t be “completely shocked if the Hilltoppers go off.” Most books opened WKU as 2.5-point road favorites, but that number has now been bet down to just a single point.
Here are five things bettors should know about the Hilltoppers heading into their Week 7 tilt with the Troy Trojans:
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Troy Trojans (1, 54)
1. WKU picked up its first-ever victory over Troy last season, closing out the 2011 campaign with a 41-18 win over the Trojans in Bowling Green. The Hilltoppers will now look for their first win on Troy's home field, as the Trojans have won four of the five previous meetings on their home field, with the other contest resulting in a tie. Troy leads the all-time series 8-1-1.
2. Hilltoppers QB Kawaun Jakes will wear a left knee brace for Thursday's game. Jakes was hurt in WKU’s 26-13 victory at Arkansas State on Sept. 29 and was sidelined in the second half. The results from an MRI last week were negative but Jakes has been limited to mostly individual drills in practice this week.
3. The Hilltoppers have won eight consecutive Sun Belt Conference games dating back to last season. That is the longest active conference-game winning streak in the Sun Belt and the third-longest active run in the nation.
4. WKU is 11-2 in its last 13 games, with the only two losses coming at the hands of the No. 1-ranked teams - LSU last season and Alabama earlier in 2012.
5. WKU junior RB Antonio Andrews established a new career high for rushing yards for the third consecutive week as he ran for 215 yards on 29 carries at Arkansas State.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-12-12 01:16 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Navy Under Friday Night Lights At Central Michigan
A pair of 2-3 college football teams might not sound like an exciting matchup, and it seems an unlikely one to get prime-time treatment from the self-anointed "worldwide leader in sports." But Friday night's contest at Central Michigan between the Chippewas and Navy Midshipmen could turn out to be one of the more entertaining games of the week for fans and bettors alike.
It already qualifies as one of the more interesting games on the Week 7 betting board in terms of early movement. The opening spread was all over the place with Navy -2½ at some sports books charted by Don Best's Pro Odds, other locales having it a pick 'em and a few shops offshore starting Central Michigan at -1½. It has since settled with the Chippewas laying 2-2½ and a 60-point total that has shot up since beginning at 57.
One reason for what has been a 2-4 point swing into Central Michigan's favor is the status of Navy quarterback Trey Miller. The junior pivot was in a walking boot at practice on Monday after injuring his left ankle in the final quarter of last week's overtime win over Air Force, and his availability for Friday's game should be known by Wednesday. Miller leads the Midshipmen in rushing and had 110 yards on the ground while completing all three of his passes at the time of the injury.
Freshman Keenan Reynolds relieved Miller and guided the Midshipmen (2-3 straight up, 2-3 against the spread) back from a 21-13 deficit at Air Force with around 10 minutes remaining in regulation.
The early movement in the Chips' direction isn't anything new this year. Three of their games – at Iowa and Toledo, home vs. Michigan State – saw spreads move towards Central Michigan (2-3 SU) who is 1-4 ATS in 2012 after going 1-11 at the betting windows in 2011.
The Falcons shot themselves in the foot with three turnovers to help Navy along last week, and while head coach Ken Niumatalolo was obviously pleased with the outcome, expect him to run Navy through practices this week as if the Middies lost the game. Air Force's top-ranked ground attack literally ran roughshod over Navy for 507 total yards of offense (363 rushing), and they're going to face a different animal this week with CMU preferring to put the ball in the air behind senior QB Ryan Radcliffe who is well on his way to a third consecutive 3,000-yard passing season.
Navy hasn't allowed a lot of yards through the air this year (146 per game, 30th in nation), but that has been a product of playing several teams who like to keep it on the ground. Radcliffe, who has received good protection from his line all season, should have time to throw and challenge the Midshipmen in what very well could be a 'who scores last' affair.
The key to the game, however, will be Central Michigan's ability to at least slow Navy's option or force Miller/Reynolds to make mistakes the few times they do throw. If oil flowed as easily from underground formations as points are put up on the Chippewas, gas would be going for about 89¢ a gallon. Only four teams have been scored upon more than Central Michigan (40.8 ppg), and the Chippewas rank 103rd in total defense (457 ypg) with more than half of that coming via the ground.
There isn't much as far as series history for bettors to consider, but what's there is pretty recent. Navy has won the only two other meetings (2003, 2010), splitting at the window while the 'over' cashed each time. The collision in 2010 went down to the wire in Annapolis before the Middies pulled off a 38-37 win by stopping CMU's 2-point conversion try with only a few ticks left on the clock. Navy was a 2-TD favorite in that game.
The current weather forecast for Mount Pleasant on Friday is a good one – upper-40s and clear at kickoff from Kelly/Shorts Stadium which is set to come a little past 8:00 p.m. (ET) on ESPN2. Navy will return home to host the Indiana Hoosiers on Oct. 20 while the Chippewas get back to their MAC schedule and host Ball State the same day.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-13-12 12:59 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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NCAAF
Friday, October 12
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Navy at Central Michigan: 9 things bettors should know
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Navy Midshipmen at Central Michigan Chippewas (-2, 60)
7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU
1. This line opened with Navy as a 3.5-point road favorite and moved to Central Michigan -2 by Thursday afternoon - a significant line move of 5.5 points.
2. Navy will have freshman quarterback Keenan Reynolds start Friday night, the first time a frosh will start at QB for Navy since 1991. Reynolds was unfazed last Saturday when he replaced Trey Miller on the road with the Midshipmen trailing Air Force 21-13 in the fourth quarter. Reynolds led Navy to a touchdown on his first drive and the Middies pulled out a 28-21 win in OT.
“All any of us could say was, ‘Wow.’ I mean that was big-time," Navy Coach Ken Niumatalolo told the Washington Post.
3. The 'over' is 3-0-1 in Chippewas games this season. They've allowed 105 points over their past two games and average 40.8 against per game. That's fifth-worst in the nation out of 124 teams.
4. Navy runs an option offense where they run the ball 70 percent of the time. They rank second in the nation in rushing with 390.8 yards per game. Central Michigan ranks 117th in the nation at stopping the run with 233.2 yards against per game.
5. CMU coach on Navy's defense: “They’re a 3-4 defense that does different things out of their defense that we don’t see a lot,” Enos told Central Michigan Life. “So, not only are we playing a football team that is well coached, with guys that play with great effort, you’re also challenged with those different schemes as well.”
6. The Chippewas' 50-35 loss to Toledo as 11.5-point dogs was closer than the score indicates. CMU threw two late interceptions that ended up being too costly to overcome. QB Ryan Radcliffe threw for 337 yards and four TDs.
7. Sixty-one percent of Covers Consensus players were on CMU as of Thursday afternoon.
8. The under is 3-0-1 for Navy this season. Before last game against Air Force, they scored just 17 points in three games against FBS opponents. Their 12-0 loss to San Jose State on Sept. 29 marked the first time the team had failed to score in six years.
9. Should be a beautiful night for football on Friday at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with clear skies and low winds.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-13-12 01:11 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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College football odds: Week 7 opening line report
It’s all about damage assessment today as three teams with national championship aspirations deal with the carnage left over from Saturday. Third-ranked Florida State, No. 4 LSU and fifth-rated Georgia are all licking their wounds and hoping to find a way to soldier on after difficult defeats that sucker-punched their title aspirations.
Florida State paid the price for getting into a taffy pull with North Carolina State and lost in the final seconds when it couldn’t get off a punt. The special teams disaster led to a short field goal for the Wolfpack, who were 17-point dogs but came out with a 17-16 SU victory.
Bettors grew suspicious of LSU after the Tigers were forced to play a full 60 minutes against Towson. On Saturday, it became apparent that the doubts were legit – LSU faded again, going scoreless in the second half and sputtering all day without a TD in a 14-6 loss to Florida. Why the Gators were +2 in that one is anyone’s guess.
Georgia, meanwhile, is still trying to get the plate number of the truck that ran over them in Columbia. Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks (-1) went wire-to-wire in a 35-7 win, and the old ball coach’s team should be ranked somewhere in the top four when the new ratings come out.
Here’s an early look at some of the biggest games this coming weekend, with an assist from Peter Korner, founder of the Las Vegas-based oddsmaking firm The Sports Club:
Alabama Crimson Tide (-17) at Missouri Tigers
“My team had this one as low as 15 and as high as 20,” said Korner, “so we settled on 17.”
That number is Alabama’s lowest spread of the year. The Crimson Tide will need to get used to playing on the road as they have only one game at home in October, though four of their final five are in Tuscaloosa.
No. 1-ranked Alabama had this past weekend off, and Missouri is still dealing with the effects of the one-game suspension of five players for allegedly getting caught blowing dope. Only one of the miscreants, WR Dorial Green-Beckham, had been seeing serious playing time. He’ll be back against Bama, but Missouri will still have trouble moving the ball against the country’s best defense.
West Virginia Mountaineers (-4.5) at Texas Tech
Has any team ever given up 35 points a game through the first half of season and been 5-0? Given their defensive indifference, the Mountaineers have no option but to score. A lot.
“This seems to me like a pretty close game,” said Korner, “but to me it’s a bit more than a field goal. We had this game as low as 3 and as high as 6, so we settled at 4.5.”
Tech actually has a decent defense, but it’s doubtful the Red Raiders will see the likes of WVU Heisman favorite Geno Smith anywhere else on their schedule.
Stanford Cardinal (+7.5) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Korner advises Stanford backers to hang on before moving on this game – “I just see the number going up,” he says. “The [betting] public is results oriented.”
Notre Dame is 5-0, headed upward in the polls and seems to be hitting its stride after a 41-3 victory over Miami. ND’s defense has been solid all season, and the Cardinal have been sloppy with the ball (four fumbles, two lost) over the last two games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-13-12 04:27 AM |
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543
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Saturday, October 13, 2012
Texas vs. Oklahoma, 12:00 ET
Texas: 16-6 ATS off 3+ Overs
Oklahoma: 11-24 ATS away after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Iowa at Michigan State, 12:00 ET
Iowa: 1-8 ATS off a win
Michigan State: 9-2 Under in the first half of the season
North Carolina at Miami FL, 3:30 ET
North Carolina: 4-18 ATS off BB games scoring 31+ points
Miami FL: 8-0 Under at home after scoring 9 points or less
Miami OH at Bowling Green, 3:30 ET
Miami OH: 8-1 Under off BB Overs
Bowling Green: 1-5 ATS off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
Kent State at Army, 12:00 ET
Kent State: 12-3 ATS off ATS wins in 3 of their last 4 games
Army: 8-0 Over vs. MAC opponents
Akron at Ohio U, 2:00 ET
Akron: 1-8 ATS vs. conference opponents
Ohio U: 5-1 ATS at home off a conference win
Toledo at Eastern Michigan, 1:00 ET
Toledo: 14-5 ATS vs. conference opponents
Eastern Michigan: 12-4 Under after allowing 300+ rushing yards
Maryland at Virginia, 3:00 ET
Maryland: 0-7 ATS off a conference game
Virginia: 34-17 Under in October
Duke at Virginia Tech, 12:30 ET
Duke: 5-15 ATS off 3+ ATS wins
Virginia Tech: 10-2 ATS at home off BB losses
Wisconsin at Purdue, 12:00 ET
Wisconsin: 0-6 ATS away off BB conference games
Purdue: 8-1 Over in home games
Northwestern at Minnesota, 12:00 ET
Northwestern: 26-12 ATS away after allowing 37+ points
Minnesota: 12-3 Over as a home underdog of 7 points or less
Syracuse at Rutgers, 12:00 ET
Syracuse: 0-6 ATS in road games
Rutgers: 9-2 Under off a win
Boston College at Florida State, 5:30 ET
Boston College: 2-9 ATS in the first half of the season
Florida State: 18-6 Under as a favorite
Temple at Connecticut, 1:00 ET
Temple: 10-2 Under in road games
Connecticut: 14-3 ATS at home off a conference loss
Louisville at Pittsburgh, 11:00am ET
Louisville: 7-0 ATS off BB Unders
Pittsburgh: 13-3 Over at home after scoring 14 points or less
Memphis at East Carolina, 4:30 ET
Memphis: 19-35 ATS off a home win
East Carolina: 34-17 ATS off a loss by 17+ points
Florida at Vanderbilt, 6:00 ET
Florida: 2-9 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 points or less
Vanderbilt: 9-0 ATS in home games
Air Force at Wyoming, 7:00 ET
Air Force: 13-3 Under away after allowing 125 or less passing yards
Wyoming: 6-16 ATS off BB games forcing 3+ turnovers
Western Michigan at Ball State, 3:00 ET
Western Michigan: 4-12 ATS off an ATS win as a favorite of 10+ points
Ball State: 10-2 Over in home games
Buffalo at Northern Illinois, 3:30 ET
Buffalo: 1-8 ATS off an Over
Northern Illinois: 20-7 ATS at home in October
Idaho at Texas State, 7:00 ET
Idaho: 3-13 ATS off a home conference win
Texas State: * No Trends Available *
Kansas State at Iowa State, 12:00 ET
Kansas State: 6-0 ATS in road games
Iowa State: 32-17 Under off a road game
Auburn at Mississippi, 12:20 ET
Auburn: 0-8 ATS away off BB conference losses
Mississippi: 16-6 Under off a conference loss by 6 points or less
UAB at Houston, 12:00 ET
UAB: 1-9 ATS off BB games scoring 31+ points
Houston: 13-4 ATS as a favorite
Illinois at Michigan, 3:30 ET
Illinois: 7-0 Under off BB conference games
Michigan: 1-11 ATS off an Over
Fresno State at Boise State, 3:30 ET
Fresno State: 6-0 ATS in all games this season
Boise State: 0-7 ATS at home off a win by 17+ points
USC at Washington, 7:00 ET
USC: 6-0 ATS after winning 4 of their last 5 games
Washington: 14-30 ATS off a road conference loss
Oregon State at BYU, 3:30 ET
Oregon State: 8-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
BYU: 1-9 ATS at home off BB home games
Alabama at Missouri, 3:30 ET
Alabama: 6-0 ATS away off a win by 17+ points
Missouri: 8-0 Over at home off a SU loss as a favorite
Stanford at Notre Dame, 3:30 ET
Stanford: 8-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Notre Dame: 7-0 Over off 4+ Unders
Utah State at San Jose State, 4:00 ET
Utah State: 6-0 Under away off an ATS win
San Jose State: 9-0 ATS off a non-conference game
Kentucky at Arkansas, 7:00 ET
Kentucky: 0-6 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
Arkansas: 7-0 ATS at home off a conference win
Tennessee at Mississippi State, 9:00 ET
Tennessee: 24-9 ATS away in October
Mississippi State: 6-0 Under off 3+ wins
South Carolina at LSU, 8:00 ET
South Carolina: 7-0 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
LSU: 20-42 ATS at home off a road game
California at Washington State, 10:30 ET
California: 12-32 ATS as a road favorite
Washington State: 19-8 Over off a SU loss / ATS win
West Virginia at Texas Tech, 3:30 ET
West Virginia: 8-1 Over off an Over
Texas Tech: 15-5 ATS off a home conference loss
TCU at Baylor, 7:00 ET
TCU: 9-2 Under off a SU loss as a favorite
Baylor: 8-1 ATS in home games
Southern Miss at Central Florida, 8:00 ET
Southern Miss: 13-2 ATS off BB games scoring 17 points or less
Central Florida: 5-1 Under off a combined score of 60+ points
Oklahoma State at Kansas, 3:30 ET
Oklahoma State: 10-2 ATS in road games
Kansas: 6-21 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points
Ohio State at Indiana, 8:00 ET
Ohio State: 1-8 ATS off a home win
Indiana: 9-1 Over vs. conference opponents
SMU at Tulane, 1:00 ET
SMU: 4-12 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 points or less
Tulane: 7-3 Over after scoring 14 points or less
Texas San Antonio at Rice, 3:30 ET
Texas SA: 3-0 ATS in road games
Rice: 29-10 Over off a road loss
Nevada at UNLV, 3:00 ET
Nevada: 6-1 Under off 4+ games scoring 31+ points
UNLV: 10-2 ATS as a home underdog
Colorado State at San Diego State, 6:30 ET
Colorado State: 1-8 ATS away off an ATS loss
San Diego State: 8-0 Under off a conference win by 21+ points
Utah at UCLA, 3:00 ET
Utah: 28-13 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
UCLA: 8-1 Under at home off a loss
New Mexico at Hawaii, 11:59 ET
New Mexico: 8-1 Under in road games
Hawaii: 0-7 ATS off a conference game
Added Games
Florida Atlanta at Louisiana Monroe, 8:05 ET
Florida Atl: 3-15 ATS vs. conference opponents
LA Monroe: 27-13 Over off an ATS win
South Alabama at Arkansas State, 7:00 ET
South Alabama: 4-0 ATS in road games
Arkansas State: 19-8 Under playing on artificial turf
Middle Tennessee State at Florida International, 6:00 ET
Mid Tenn State: 1-8 ATS off a conference loss
Florida Int: 8-1 Under off a conference game
Texas A&M vs. Louisiana Tech, 9:00 ET
Texas A&M: 0-9 ATS away off BB games gaining 450+ total yards
Louisiana Tech: 7-0 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents
(TC) = Time Change
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-13-12 04:30 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 7
If you're looking to get some action down but only have a few minutes to handicap, let our Top-25 cheat sheet help you out. We grabbed some quick-hitting betting info on each of the Top 25 matchups with odds available in Week 7 of the season:
(16) Louisville at Pittsburgh (3, 48.5)
Louisville (5-0) is off to its best start since 2006 as it opens Big East play at Pittsburgh. The Cardinals have scored on 22 of their 23 trips into the red zone, a major reason for their impressive start. The Panthers have relied heavily on a defense that has allowed an average of 13.7 points over their last three games and ranks 22nd in the nation in total defense. Louisville has failed to cover in each of its last five meetings with Pittsburgh.
Syracuse at (19) Rutgers (-7, 45)
Rutgers will try for its first 6-0 start since 2006 when it hosts Syracuse. Sophomore RB Jawan Jamison rushed for his sixth straight 100-yard game in a 19-3 victory over Connecticut last week. But the defense is the real story behind the school’s success so far. The Rutgers stop unit ranks 15th in total defense at 296.8 yards per contest, fifth in points allowed (10.8) and second in rushing yards allowed (60.6). The Scarlet Knights have won each of their games by at least nine points and have outscored the opposition 38-3 in the third quarter this season. The under is 4-1 in their last five meetings.
(15) Texas at (10) Oklahoma (-3.5, 60.5)
Texas QB David Ash has 11 touchdowns against only one pick and ranks third nationally in passer efficiency for an offense that has produced an average of 46.8 points per game. This will mark only the third game in five weeks for Oklahoma, which bounced back from its only loss with a strong performance in a 41-20 victory at previously undefeated Texas Tech last week. The under is 5-1 in the Sooners’ last six games overall and the Longhorns have lost seven consecutive games to ranked opponents.
(5) Kansas State at (25) Iowa State (6.5, 49)
The Wildcats are second in the conference and ninth in the nation in rushing offense at 264.8 yards, sparked by RB John Hubert and speedy QB Collin Klein. Iowa State (4-1) is off to its best start since 2002 and cracked the national rankings this week for the first time in 10 years. Defense has ignited the Cyclones’ early season rise. Senior linebacker Jake Knott leads the conference with 32 solo tackles and senior strong safety Durrell Givens has recovered three fumbles in five games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
(14) Oregon State at BYU (-6, 37.5)
Oregon State got dealt a not-so-pleasant surprise when starting QB Sean Mannion discovered he will likely miss 2-to-4 weeks with torn cartilage in his knee despite not missing a snap in last Saturday’s 19-6 home victory over Washington State. Junior Cody Vaz will get his first start since high school Saturday at Brigham Young, which hasn’t surrendered an offensive touchdown in 13 consecutive quarters. The Cougars have played under the total in their last five home games.
(1) Alabama at Missouri (21, 43.5)
Alabama leads the nation in total defense (191.6 yards per game) and scoring defense (7.0 points per game) and will be an even greater challenge for Missouri without starting quarterback James Franklin (knee). Redshirt freshman Corbin Berkstresser will make his second career start in Franklin's place. The Crimson Tide is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.
Fresno State at (22) Boise State (-7, 57.5)
Fresno State has lost 10 of its last 11 matchups against Boise State while being outscored 108-7 over the past two games. Boise State hasn’t lost a game in October since 2001, winning 45 straight. The favorite is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
(17) Stanford at (7) Notre Dame (-7.5, 44.5)
Notre Dame is 5-0 for the first time since 2002 and has already beaten ranked squads from Michigan State and Michigan this season. The Fighting Irish defense has gone three straight games without allowing a touchdown for the first time since 1980. Stanford senior QB Josh Nunes earned Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week honors by passing for 360 yards and accounting for five touchdowns (two passing, three rushing) in the win over Arizona last week. Notre Dame has played under the total in its last four games.
(4) West Virginia at Texas Tech (3.5, 77.5)
West Virginia QB Geno Smith showed his mettle against Texas last week as he passed for 268 yards (a season-low) and four touchdowns while being harassed all night by a hostile Longhorns’ defense. The senior has 24 touchdowns and zero interceptions, including 12 TDs in the last two games, and leads the nation in passing efficiency (202.3). The Mountaineers have to outscore opponents because their defense, which switched to a mixture of 3-4 and 4-3 fronts, hasn't stopped anyone this season (allowing 460.0 yards per game).
Boston College at (11) FSU (-27.5, 55.5)
The Seminoles fell from No. 4 to No. 11 in the USA Today Coaches Poll - and saw their national championship aspirations take a serious hit - when they were outscored 17-0 in the second half en route to a stunning 17-16 loss at North Carolina State last week. Despite the loss, Florida State is the only team ranked in the top 10 in eight statistical categories - five on defense. The Seminoles are just 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games.
(6) Florida at Vanderbilt (8.5, 40.5)
No. 6 Florida seeks its 22nd consecutive victory over Vanderbilt when the teams square off in Nashville on Saturday. The Gators upended LSU 14-6 last Saturday and are the only team in the country that hasn’t allowed a single fourth-quarter point this season. Vanderbilt defeated Missouri last week for its first SEC win of the season, but has lost 15 consecutive games against ranked opponents. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
(23) TCU at Baylor (-9, 68.5)
Suspended QB Casey Pachall will leave Texas Christian for an inpatient rehab facility and will not play again in 2012, coach Gary Patterson announced Tuesday. So redshirt freshman Trevone Boykin will get his second start against Baylor on Saturday. The Bears have won nine straight at home, including last year's 50-48 season-opening victory against TCU. Baylor has one of the nation's most prolific offenses, but is still licking its wounds a bit after allowing 807 yards and 70 points in a loss to West Virginia two weeks ago. The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
(9) USC at Washington (12.5, 54.5)
After three straight games with less than 300 yards, Trojans QB Matt Barkley completed nearly 77 percent of his passes for 303 yards in a come-from-behind win at Utah last week. USC RB Curtis McNeal and WR Robert Woods appeared to suffer head injuries against Utah, but are expected to play Saturday. The Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings with Washington.
Fordham at (20) Cincinnati (-40.5)
Bearcats RB George Winn is averaging 111.5 yards per contest to help Cincinnati extend its winning streak to seven games overall. The Bearcats have outscored their opponents 44-6 in the first quarter this season and have won 23 straight non-conference games at home.
(3) South Carolina at (8) LSU (-2.5, 40.5)
The Gamecocks have moved into championship contention because of a vast improvement on the defensive side of the ball as they rank fourth in the nation in points against. The eighth-ranked Tigers have taken a dip due to an offense that has totaled 18 points in its first two conference games. Going up against the Tigers’ second-ranked pass defense, South Carolina will likely look to Heisman candidate Marcus Lattimore. The junior RB has at least one touchdown in every game this season and has rushed over 100 yards in each of the last two contests. The Gamecocks have covered the spread in each of their last five games.
Tennessee at (18) Mississippi State (-2.5, 57)
Tennessee brings its high-powered passing offense on the road to Mississippi State on Saturday night, looking to extend its winning streak against the No. 18 Bulldogs to seven games. The Bulldogs have scored at least 25 points in their first five games, something they’ve never accomplished in the program’s 113-year history. Tennessee has allowed five touchdown runs of more than 50 yards in the last three games. Head coach Derek Dooley will coach from the press box after undergoing hip surgery this week. The Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
(21) Texas A&M at (24) Louisiana Tech (7.5, 80.5)
This game, originally scheduled for Aug. 30 but postponed because of Hurricane Isaac, features two of the three teams in the FBS that rank in the top 30 nationally in rushing, passing, total and scoring offense. The Bulldogs, winners of 12 straight regular-season games, matched the 1975 team for the best start in school history with a 58-31 victory over UNLV last week while Texas A&M overcame six turnovers to win 30-27 at Mississippi. Texas A&M is 10-0 all-time against the Bulldogs, but only one of those games has been played in Shreveport. The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-13-12 04:33 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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Posts: 10543
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Road Warriors
October 10, 2012
Deep Six Angle
With the season approaching the mid way point, let’s take one final look at expanding our bankroll with college football teams in Game 6 situations.
Our well-oiled database reports a turning point for 3-2 or better teams that take to the road when playing off one-loss exact. They win and continue with the prospects of donning bowling shirts, or they lose and begin entertaining visions of staying home for the holidays. Thus these become pivotal games on each team’s schedule.
These Game Six travelers, playing off one-loss exact, respond with vigor in the Game Six scenarios going 89-59-2 ATS in all games since 1980.
That’s represents a rock solid 60% wining spread mark.
This week finds qualifying three teams taking to the road, namely Middle Tennessee State, TCU and Tennessee.
Middle Tennessee State at Florida International
TCU at Baylor
Tennessee at Georgia
Better yet, when priced as dogs in competitive situations (+10 or fewer points) they improve to 38-18-1 ATS (68%).
The best role occurs when these same visitors take on a foe sporting a winning record as they improve to 27-10-1 ATS (73%) in these spirited contests.
TCU (+8) and Tennessee (+3) look to be ‘devilish’ sides on this week’s card. Good luck…
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-13-12 04:50 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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ACC Report - Week 7
October 10, 2012
Last week, my positive cash streak in the ACC was put in serious, serious jeopardy. If you bet Clemson, and didn't see the final minute, you should be very pleased. The Tigers were laying 10 1/2-11 points, and were up nine with just about 50 seconds remaining. They had the ball first and goal at the Georgia Tech 5, and the Yellow Jackets had no timeouts. Had the ball been at the 50, or inside Clemson territory, etc. - they likely would have knelt and ended the game.
However, the Tigers had some difficulty handling the ball inside the 5 earlier in the game, and in past weeks, so unorthodox head coach Dabo Swinney kept his offense on the field to get game-time red zone practice. Clemson ended up punching it in, albeit with reserves, to go up 16, thus covering the number. Thankfully that happened, because I was duped into believing Miami had a chance against Notre Dame, and easily lost that one.
Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 10/10/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 15-7-0 ( 68.2% , +720)
PICK DETAILS
Week Record Total
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2 Won (+80)
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1 Won (+80)
Saturday - North Carolina at Miami (Fla.) (ESPNU, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game
The Tar Heels are coming off an impressive home win against Virginia Tech, squaring their ACC record at 1-1. As such, they need this game badly, as the Hurricanes are sitting pretty at 3-0 atop the Coastal Division despite an awful thumping at the hands of Notre Dame last weekend. The Tar Heels are just 1-5 ATS in their past six road games, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning record. On the other side, while the Hurricanes have been absolutely thrashed, failing to come close to covering in two marquee non-conference games against K-State and ND, they are 5-1 ATS in their past six conference games, including a perfect 3-0 ATS mark against ACC foes this season. Remember, though, that the Tar Heels are 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, and the underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight battles between the sides. Basically, all of these line trends scream stay away. However, playing the total might make more sense. The over is 5-2 in UNC's past seven games overall, and 4-0 in their past four October contests (including last week). The over is 4-1 in Miami's past five games, and 8-3 in their past 11 conference battles. In addition, the over has cashed in four of the previous five meetings.
Saturday - Duke at Virginia Tech (Gameplan/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game
The Duke Blue Devils are starting to look for real, or they have just taken advantage of a semi-soft schedule. We'll definitely get a better feel for Duke this weekend against a damaged, yet still dangerous, Virginia Tech team at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg. Duke winning at Virginia Tech looked like a pipe dream earlier in the season, but they legitimately have a shot, especially if QB Sean Renfree (elbow) can get back to 100 percent. The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their past four games since being thumped by Stanford on the road earlier this season. However, while at home Duke has been the play, they are just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips away from Wallace Wade Stadium. However, the Hokies are a dismal 1-4 ATS in their past five conference games, including a pasting at UNC last week. They are just 3-13 ATS in their past 16 games on grass, and 0-3-1 in their past four games against teams with a winning record. Could Duke really go to Virginia Tech and win? If so, they'd become bowl eligible for the first time since appearing in the 1994 Hall of Fame Bowl (now the Outback Bowl) against Wisconsin.
Saturday - Boston College at Florida State (ESPN2, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game
Poor Boston College. They will be walking into a hornet's nest in Tallahassee Saturday afternoon, facing a very angry Seminoles team that was neutered in Raleigh last Saturday night by N.C. State. The 'Noles blew a 16-0 lead, and fell 17-16 in one of the biggest upsets of this season, likely losing all hope of a national championship in the process. What looked like an almost impenetrable defense early in the season allowed the Wolfpack to march downfield for a late game-winning touchdown, leaving most garnet and gold supporters to wonder what might have been. As for BC, well...they just stink. They are 0-2 on the road this season, including a setback against Army last week. If they were to turn their season around, they needed to win at West Point last weekend. If they couldn't handle Army, one has to think they're going to have a whale of a time trying to stop FSU's skill players. The line is just 27.5, and that could easily be erased by halftime. While BC has a semi-respectable offense, led by QB Chase Rettig, their defense is just poor. FSU should mash them in their bounce-back week. If you're brave enough, BC is 9-4 ATS in their past 13 road games, while FSU is 1-4 ATS in their past five ACC battles. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven battles, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. However, I am not touching Boston College with a 20-foot-pole, twice as long as the pole I usually use to avoid teams.
Saturday - Maryland at Virginia (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game
It's hard to believe Maryland is 3-2 overall on the season, as this team is just not good. But they find a way to win. Overall, though, they're a hard team to figure. They are 2-3 ATS this season, barely scraping by William & Mary, before pasting Temple on the road. They were dropped by UConn at home, then stayed with West Virginia in Morgantown, losing just 31-21. Then, last week, they beat Wake Forest, but failed to cover in a low-scoring affair. They have gone under in two straight, including a very rare under for West Virginia, after a pair of overs earlier. Virginia, on the other hand, isn't hard to figure at all. They're just bad. They have dropped four straight games, including a 42-17 pasting at Duke last week. The Cavaliers are 0-5-1 ATS this season, including five straight non-covers. The over has also connected in three of their past four games. However, the Terps are just 1-4 ATS in their past trips to Charlottesville, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five battles. If you're considering Maryland, those numbers are confusing. It's best to stay away from this one, as it is tough to predict, other than it is almost a certainty bad football will be played. The under might be the play. The total has gone under in four of the past five meetings between these teams. For UVA, the under has connected in 14 of the past 20 games, and is 8-1 in Virginia's past nine home games. For Maryland, the under is 4-0 in their past four road games against teams with a losing record, and 13-6 in their past 19 October games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-13-12 04:56 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Big Ten Report - Week 7
October 12, 2012
Wisconsin and Purdue match-up this week in the Big Ten's marquee game. Surprisingly this meeting between the Badgers and the Boilers could decide the Leaders division representative in the Big Ten title game. ASA has the full preview for that game, as well as every other match-up (includes Michigan State-Iowa & Minnesota-Northwestern). Get all the answers inside!
Purdue (-2.5) vs. Wisconsin - (Big Ten Network, 12:00 p.m. ET)
PU: Last week vs. Michigan: L 13-44
UW: Last week vs. Illinois: W 31-14
With Penn State and Ohio State ineligible for the postseason, and Illinois and Indiana not showing many signs of life, this game could decide the Leaders Division representative for the Big Ten championship. Motivation shouldn't be a factor here as both coaches know how big this game is. Wisconsin's win over Illinois looked to be a cakewalk by the look of the final score (31-14), but it definitely wasn't. It was 7-7 at halftime and Wisconsin put a couple of late touchdowns on the board to pull away. The defense put in another solid performance, holding the Illini to just 284 yards and 15 first downs. Offensively the Badgers still can't seem to find their rhythm as this unit ranks 107th in yards per game and 91st in points per game.
No Big Ten team disappointed more in week six than Danny Hope's Boilers. Purdue spotted Michigan a 25-point lead midway through the 2nd quarter and never really challenged the Wolverines. The Boilers managed just 213 yards on offense while turning the ball over four times. The defense has taken significant steps backward the past two weeks, allowing 41 points to Marshall and 44 points to Michigan in two home games. There's a bit of a quarterback controversy as Caleb TerBush has struggled recently. Robert Marve may be the better option, despite a torn ACL. Coach Hope stated that TerBush will remain the starter, but coaches will decide later in the week how to integrate Marve into the game.
Recent history: Wisconsin is 6-0 SU & ATS in the last six straight meetings, winning by an average of 23 points per game (average score of 35-12). Last year the Badgers piled on 605 yards and 62 points in a blowout at home. Montee Ball rushed for 223 yards and three scores.
Trends: The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog. Purdue is 1-5 ATS in its last six Big Ten games.
Injury report: Purdue RB Ralph Bolden finally could return this week. After rushing for 935 yards and tallying 11 total touchdowns in 2009, Bolden didn't play in 2010, played sparingly in 2011 before another knee injury, and hasn't played at all this year yet.
Michigan State (-10) vs. Iowa - (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
MSU: Last week at Indiana: W 31-27
UI: Last week: BYE
It's ridiculously early, but the Hawkeyes are tied for the Legends Division lead. A win here over the sporadic Spartans could further shake up the division race. Iowa had a week off to prepare for this road trip to East Lansing. The Hawks had a morale boosting win over rival Minnesota two weeks ago. Offensively the Hawks got another strong performance from walk-on RB Mark Weisman, who now has now rushed for 507 yards (7.0 YPC) and seven touchdowns the last three games. QB Vandenberg continues to struggle, however, as he's completing less than 59% of his passes with just two touchdowns and two interceptions (threw for 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions last season). This offense will face their stiffest test of the season against this Spartans defense that ranks 11th against the run and 25th against the pass.
Michigan State hasn't had a complete performance since a September 8th win over Central Michigan. Since then they scored three points in a loss to Notre Dame, struggled to beat a bad Eastern Michigan team, lost to Ohio State at home, and barely beat Indiana on the road last week. Sparty was down 14-27 at Indiana last week. The defense shut down the Hoosiers in the 2nd half and MSU survived a four-point victory. Offensively the Spartans rank 100th in points per game and things won't get any easier against this Hawkeye defense that seems to be improving every week.
Recent history: Iowa is 4-2 SU over the last six meetings and & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including a win & cover the last time here in East Lansing. MSU took a 31-7 lead into halftime of last year's meeting at Iowa. The Spartans cruised to a 37-21 win.
Trends: Iowa is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games and 1-11 ATS in its last 12 following a straight up win. Michigan State is 9-17-1 ATS its last 27 Big Ten home games.
Injury report: Michigan State tight end Dion Sims will miss Saturday's game against Iowa, leaving the Spartans without their leading receiver (24 receptions, 313 yards). Iowa will have top cornerback Micah Hyde on the field at Michigan State. Hyde was arrested during the weekend for public intoxication and interfering with official acts. Because he's a first-time offender, Iowa's student-athlete conduct policy doesn't require him to miss a game.
Minnesota (+3.5) vs. Northwestern - (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
UM: Last week: BYE
NU: Last week at Penn State: L 28-39
Another virtual division elimination game as the winner will stay alive in the Legends race, while the loser is probably done. Both squads are off of their first loss of the season; Northwestern at Penn State last week and Minnesota at Iowa two weeks ago. Minnesota QB Max Shortell struggled under center against the Hawkeyes, throwing for just 197 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. As coach Jerry Kill said, the Gophers really need top quarterback MarQueis Gray to get healthy. Also unsettling was the play of Minnesota's defense, which couldn't stop Iowa's rushing attack Weisman. Northwestern brings one of the top rushing offenses in the nation here, averaging 232 yards per game (17th nationally).
Despite a sluggish offensive day overall (247 total yards), Northwestern put itself in position for a win at Penn State last week. The Wildcats led 28-17 midway through the 4th quarter before allowing 22 unanswered points to the Nittany Lions. The Wildcats couldn't get any pressure on PSU QB McGloin and he threw for 282 yards and two touchdowns while they notched 161 rush yards. That's not promising considering that the PSU offense ranks in the bottom half of all major defensive categories. Minnesota ranks similar offensively to Penn State, so this will be an interesting matchup if Northwestern can bounce back.
Recent history: Northwestern has won four of the last five overall, but Minnesota has covered seven of the last nine overall. The Wildcats jumped out to a 21-7 first quarter lead last season and not much happened after that. Northwestern won 28-13 but failed to cover as the 16-point favorite.
Trends: Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Wildcats are 5-13 ATS in the last 18 conference games.
Injury report: Minnesota quarterback MarQueis Gray participated in Sunday's light practice and will be on the field this week when the team begins its prep for Northwestern. Coach Jerry Kill is "cautiously optimistic" Gray has a chance to play against the Wildcats.
Michigan (-23.5) vs. Illinois - (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
UM: Last week at Purdue: W 44-13
UI: Last week at Wisconsin: L 14-31
Illinois is struggling in all facets. It ranks 102nd in yards per game and 104th in points per game. Their QB Scheelhaase has three touchdowns and five interceptions this season while their leading rusher has just 227 yards. Defensively the Illini are allowing more than 40 points per game against its past four FBS opponents. They have had particular trouble slowing down spread teams, which is evident in the 45 points allowed to Arizona State and the 52 allowed to Louisiana Tech. That could mean a big day for Denard Robinson and this Michigan offense that put up 44 points at Purdue a week ago.
Off it its bye week, Michigan got its best performance of the season against Purdue. The defense recorded four takeaways (returned one for a score) and allowed just 213 yards. QB Denard Robinson rebounded well after his disastrous game against Notre Dame. He tallied 235 rush yards and one passing touchdown and didn't throw any interceptions. Overall they ran for 304 yards and that allowed Michigan to hold the ball for +12.5 minutes time of possession. Michigan can't afford a letdown here by looking ahead to its home showdown against Michigan State next week.
Recent history: Michigan is 8-2 SU the last 10 meetings, but Illinois is 4-2 ATS in the previous six meetings. Last season Michigan held Illinois to just 214 total yards, including 37 rush yards on 33 carries. It was an ugly game that featured six total turnovers and Michigan won and covered, 31-14.
Trends: Illinois is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games and 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. The Illinis are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a 20+ point underdog (5-0 ATS run). Michigan is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 conference games.
Injury report: Illinois cornerback Terry Hawthorne, who left the field last Saturday at Wisconsin in an ambulance, has recovered well but still must pass a concussion test before playing again. Redshirt freshman Eaton Spence will start in Hawthorne's place if he can't play.
Indiana (+17) vs. Ohio State - (Big Ten Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
UI: Last week vs. Michigan State: L 27-31
OSU: Last week vs. Nebraska: W 63-38
Ohio State has to avoid a letdown here on the road at Indiana after its big win against Nebraska last week. The Buckeyes saw what almost happened to MSU in Bloomington a week ago so they won't be taking the Hoosiers lightly. OSU put on a scoring clinic last week against the Huskers. The Bucks tallied 371 rush yards (7.7 YPC average) and six touchdowns, Braxton Miller threw for one touchdown, and they scored on an interception return and a punt return. Defensively the Bucks allowed a lot of yards and 38 points, but they forced four turnovers and were able to get constant pressure on the quarterback. Expect more big numbers for the offense this week against Indiana's 95th ranked defensive unit.
Indiana is much improved from a year ago, though its progress has merely translated into agonizing losses against Ball State, Northwestern and Michigan State. Still, it's a promising development that the Hoosiers are actually competitive this season. It looked as though they would record their first signature win of the Kevin Wilson era last week. They dominated the first half against Michigan State and sliced through the Big Ten's top defense with their up-tempo attack. They led 27-14 at halftime but didn't record another point. QB Coffman threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns, but he will likely split time with QB Sudfeld this week - according to coach Wilson.
Recent history: Ohio State has won 17 straight games over Indiana and they are 11-4-2 ATS over that span (average win margin of 22.2 points per game). The Hoosiers hung with the Buckeyes in Columbus last year, trailing 20-27 heading into the 4th quarter. OSU tallied 346 rush yards with three players recording over 100 yards each.
Trends: Ohio State is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 Big Ten road games. OSU is also 12-6 ATS its last 18 road games as a double-digit favorite.
Injury report: Indiana coach Kevin Wilson expects to play both of his top quarterbacks -- Cameron Coffman and Nate Sudfeld -- Saturday. Coffman made his third consecutive start last week against Michigan State and played brilliantly in the first half. Sudfeld has practiced a bit better than Coffman this week and both will see the field.
Nebraska - BYE
UN: Last week at Ohio State: L 38-63
After a strong first quarter against OSU, Nebraska's defense fell apart. The Huskers allowed six consecutive touchdown drives and 371 rush yards. They were killed by the big play as OSU scored six touchdowns of 16 yards or more. QB Taylor Martinez committed four turnovers, including an interception returned for a touchdown. Nebraska still has a shot at the division title, but it will need to fix a lot of problems this off week as it prepares for a key three game stretch against Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State.
Injury report: RB Rex Burkhead should be fine for the team's next game at Northwestern, coach Bo Pelini said. Burkhead injured his left knee in the third quarter against Ohio State and didn't return.
Penn State - BYE
PSU: Last week vs. Northwestern: W 39-28
Penn State has bounced back after an 0-2 start to win four straight games. The Lions rallied to beat Northwestern after an 11-point fourth quarter deficit. Quarterback Matt McGloin continues his strong play with two more touchdowns and no picks. He now has 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions this season. The defense has been very opportunistic and seems to get better and better every week. Last week they allowed just 247 yards to one of the better offenses in the Big Ten. They have a ton of momentum heading forward as they prepare for a road game at Iowa on October 20th.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-13-12 04:59 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Pac-12 Report - Week 7
October 12, 2012
Saturday - Stanford at Notre Dame (NBC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game
The Cardinal and the Irish hook up in South Bend in one of the more anticipated games of the weekend. The brutal schedule for Notre Dame continues, but at least they play at home. That's fine with Stanford, though, as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 road games, and 9-4 ATS in their past 13 games against teams with a road record. Digging deeper, however, we find Stanford is just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games aginst Independents. Hmm. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is an impressive 4-1 ATS in their past five games, including a 41-3 blasting of Miami last weekend in Chicago. If you had heard the Notre Dame defense was pretty good, they were right. But we learned that the Irish have a little something going on offensively, too. In this series, there are no skewed trends in favor of one team or another, but the under has cashed in five of the past six meetings. The under is also 17-5 in Notre Dame's past 22 home games, and 5-2 in Stanford's past seven road games.
Saturday - Southern California at Washington (FOX, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game
The Trojans haven't exactly been cover kings this season, hitting the number just once in five games this season. However, they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven against Pac-12 opponents, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven games against teams with a winning record. The Huskies pulled off a signature win at home against Stanford a few weeks ago, but they were unable to carry that momentum to Eugene, losing 52-21 last week. Still, Washington is 2-1 ATS in their past three games, and those two covers came at home. Remember this, the Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their past seven meetings with U-Dub, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Seattle. The underdog, presumably, without looking, Washington every time, is 5-2 ATS in the past seven battles between these sides.
Saturday - Oregon State at Brigham Young (ABC/ESPN3, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game
This game had the look of a marquee game until last week. The Beavers ended up losing QB Sean Mannion (knee) for at least two to four weeks due to torn cartilage in his knee, meaning QB Cody Vaz will make his first collegiate start. Going up against the vaunted BYU defense, which has allowed 10 total points over their past three games, it is a tall order for Vaz. It's also reason why there is a rare college total under 40 (currently at 37). The Cougs have problems of their own under center, as they lost versatile QB Taysom Hill (knee) to a knee injury last Friday. He is done for the season, and will be replaced, most likely, by former starter QB Riley Nelson. This game has the look of a slog, but under 37 is still a risky proposition. The Beavers are 4-1-1 ATS in their past six games, and the public apparently likes that. However, you have to remember Mannion is out, and this will look like a completely different offense against a stout D. The Cougs are 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games.
Saturday - Utah at UCLA (FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game
The Bruins are a difficult team to figure. They come into this game with a still impressive 4-2 record, but they were punished in Berkeley last week, 43-17. Really, they never win at Cal, but the Bears are not good this year, and the Bruins have looked better. Guess not. Suddenly, UCLA is just 1-2 ATS in their past three games, and they need to get untracked. Utah would seem like the perfect team to pick it up against, but they were spanked by the Utes 31-6 in the last meeting. Utah is 0-2 this season away from Rice-Eccles Stadium, however, so it will be an uphill climb. Utah is just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home record, and the Bruins are 5-1 ATS in their past six home games. If you don't have a sour taste in your mouth from past UCLA failures, and can look at this objectively, UCLA looks like the clear-cut play. However, keep in mind UCLA is just 7-16 ATS in their past 23 Pac-12 games, and 3-13 ATS in their past 16 games in the month of October.
Saturday - California at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game
California was a struggling 1-4 club, but they got well last week and whaled on UCLA 43-17. All of a sudden, things are looking up for head coach Jeff Tedford's bunch. This team can run the football with authority, and they could keep things going in the right direction with a win on the Palouse. The Bears are just 3-9 ATS in their past 12 road games, however, although they are an impressive 5-2 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games. WaZu is 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games in the month of October. They are also 8-3 ATS in their past 11 meetings with Cal. However, the road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings, so be careful with the line. The over has cashed in five straight home games for Washington State, but the under is 11-4 in Cal's past 15 games. This game is a good idea to stay far away from.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-13-12 05:01 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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South Carolina at LSU
October 12, 2012
South Carolina announced itself as a legitimate national-title contender last weekend. As for LSU, it lost for the first time and is now in desperation mode as the Gamecocks come to Baton Rouge to face the Tigers on Saturday night.
As of Friday afternoon, most books had LSU (5-1 straight up, 2-4 against the spread) installed as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 39 ½ for ‘over/under’ wagers. Gamblers can take the Gamecocks to win outright for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125).
South Carolina took Georgia behind the woodshed last Saturday night in Columbia, cruising to a 35-7 win as a one-point home favorite. The 42 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 54 ½-point total.
Steve Spurrier’s squad raced out to a 21-0 lead midway through the first quarter thanks to a pair of Connor Shaw touchdown passes and a 70-yard punt return for a score by Ace Sanders.
Shaw completed 6-of-10 throws for 162 yards and two TDs without an interception. The junior signal caller also scored on a seven-yard run. Marcus Lattimore posted the third 100-yard game of his career against Georgia, rushing 24 times for 109 yards and one TD.
For the season, Shaw is connecting on 75.7 percent of his passes for 733 yards with a 7/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Shaw is first in the SEC in passing efficiency (184.7). He has also rushed for 281 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
Lattimore has rushed for 549 yards and nine TDs, averaging 4.7 YPC.
South Carolina leads the SEC in sacks with 25. Sophomore defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is second in the SEC in sacks (6 ½) and tackles for losses (11 ½). With Clowney, senior DE Devin Taylor, sophomore DT Kelcy Quarles and junior DE Chaz Sutton, the Gamecocks have one of the nation’s premier defensive lines.
That’s not good news for LSU, which has issues on its offensive line. Starting OT Chris Faulk went down with a season-ending injury a few weeks ago, and now two other starters could be out. Junior OG Josh Williford sustained a concussion last week and is ‘doubtful,’ while OT Alex Hurst left the team earlier this week for personal reasons and is considered ‘questionable.’
Also on the injury front, LSU will most likely be without LB Kwon Alexander, who is ‘doubtful’ with a sprained ankle.
Les Miles’s team had won 18 consecutive regular-season games until Florida won a 14-6 decision over the Tigers as a three-point home underdog. LSU led 6-0 at intermission and it was clear that points were going to be at a premium in the second half.
Florida finally got going offensively behind the between-the-tackles running of senior RB Mike Gillislee, who scored a pair of touchdowns for the Gators. LSU’s offense couldn’t get anything going whatsoever and when it did make a big play, Odell Beckham fumbled inside the red zone when he was stripped by UF safety Matt Elam.
Despite the defeat, everything remains on the table for LSU. In other words, as long as the Tigers take care of their business, they can still win the SEC and probably get into the BCS Championship Game. With that said, another loss most likely eliminates all of the aforementioned goals.
In his first season as a starter, LSU junior QB Zach Mettenberger is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,174 yards with a 6/3 TD-INT ratio.
LSU is led in rushing by sophomore RB Kenny Hilliard, who has 382 yards and six TDs on 58 carries for a 6.6 YPC average. The Tigers are deep in the backfield with Spencer Ware (4.6 YPC) and Michael Ford (5.7 YPC).
During Les Miles’s eight-year tenure, LSU has limped to an 18-28-1 spread record as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are 12-8-1 against the spread as road underdogs on Steve Spurrier’s watch.
South Carolina hasn’t played in Baton Rouge since 2007 when LSU won a 28-16 decision as a 17 ½-point underdog. In the last head-to-head meeting in 2008, LSU overcame a halftime deficit to capture a 24-17 victory as a 1 ½-point road ‘chalk.’
The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for LSU, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in its three home games that had a total. Totals have been a wash for South Carolina both overall (3-3) and in its road assignments (1-1)
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Toledo junior QB Terrance Owens is enjoying a sensational year to date. The southpaw has thrown for 1,503 yards with a 9/1 TD-INT ratio. Owens has also rushed for 164 yards and three touchdowns. He’s been the catalyst behind the Rockets’ 5-1 start. They are 15-point favorites Saturday at Eastern Michigan.
--La. Tech QB Colby Cameron has 13 TD passes without being intercepted. The Bulldogs take on Texas A&M in Shreveport on Saturday night.
--Dating back to 1998, Boise St. owns a 10-1-1 spread record in 12 games as a single-digit home favorite. The Broncos host Fresno St. on Saturday as seven-point favorites.
--Nevada QB Cody Fajardo has been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ Saturday at UNLV. Fajardo suffered a lower back injury in last week’s 35-28 home win over Wyoming. He has passed for 1,465 yards and rushed for 521. Fajardo has a 9/3 TD-INT ratio and seven rushing scores.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-13-12 05:04 AM |
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