we have an action packed weekend ahead, let's start with a nice set of matches on Friday
GL

Nottingham Forest vs Derby | Friday 23rd October 2020, 2:45

The East Midlands Derby often resembles a significant space in the footballing calendar for both Nottingham Forest and Derby, and whilst Friday night’s encounter won’t include either passionate fanbase, you can bet your bottom dollar that this is a big game. It has seemingly been the case in recent seasons that one or both clubs heading into this match is in some kind of mini-meltdown and Derby very much hold that tag on this occasion.

Reason being is that whilst Mel Morris might say that Phillip Cocu is not under pressure of losing his job, they have since lost back-to-back matches since he said that, without scoring in reply. Talisman Wayne Rooney sat out the midweek 1-0 loss at Huddersfield due to self-isolating, and he won’t make the trip to the City Ground either.

Good news is that Martyn Waghorn made a return off the bench on Tuesday to return from injury, meaning the Rams will finally have a recognised striker on their books. Veteran Colin Kazim-Richards has also been recruited, but the reality is that Derby have struggled big time without Rooney on the pitch. I just wonder where the goals are going to come from.

Nottingham Forest removed Sabri Lamouchi a few weeks ago, and whilst many from the outside may feel as though that was harsh, the fact he almost lost his job in the off-season meant that starting this campaign poorly was never going to end well for him. They remained in a hangover from their end of season collapse last season and couldn’t shrug that off.

Bringing Chris Hughton into the club will help do that given he is a fresh voice and will demand instant respect considering his standing in the game. He began with a fine 1-0 away win at Blackburn Rovers, and a midweek home draw with Rotherham United stunk of the sort of result they would have suffered last season. They’ll be keen to bounce back against their big rivals, so therefore both teams head into this with something to prove in a way.

Being in bad form means Derby won’t necessarily relish this game. They’ve began the league run losing five of their first six, and their only win was a bit of a smash and grab at Norwich a few weeks ago, when Rooney bailed them out with a last-gasp free kick. That was one of only two goals they’ve scored this season and they’ve shipped ten in reply.

Aston Villa vs Leeds | Friday 23rd October 2020, 3:00

The in-form Aston Villa play host to Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds in the first Friday night game of the Premier League season. This match has the potential to be an absolute cracker with Leeds often an entertaining watch and Villa boasting a 100% record whilst playing some very good stuff.

The loan signing of Ross Barkley has looked a very shrewd one and has helped Villa create more and become less reliant on talisman Jack Grealish. They also have a more reliable striker in Ollie Watkins, who they hope will be able to hit the 15-20 goal mark this season.

Leeds paid the price for not finishing their chances against Wolves and came out 1-0 losers in a game where they should have been one or two up at half time.

The first angle I like is a price boost on Betfair or Paddy Power which represents really good value. Barkley and Bamford 1+ shot on target each at 23/10.

Barkley has played in the number 10 role in his two games for Villa and has scored in both games, looking like he is really enjoying his football again. He is also pushing for a spot in the Euros squad next year and will be doing everything he can to impress Gareth Southgate.

Bamford has managed seven shots on-target in five games this season, managing at least one in each game. I expect there to be plenty of chances for both teams like there is in most Leeds games so at 23/10 this price looks very appealing.

I also expect this to be a feisty side to this game as this two teams have previous history from the last match. Bielsa famously instructed his team to allow Villa to stick the ball in the back of the net after his team pretended to kick the ball out of play for an injury only to carry on playing and score. Tensions rose quickly and there was plenty of cards shown.

For a team that was staring down the barrel of relegation last season, who would have thought that Aston Villa would be unbeaten and second in the table coming into week six of the Premier League, and with a game in hand! Villa take aim at a fifth consecutive win on Friday night when they welcome Leeds knowing the three points will not only see them reel off five straight wins but move them to the top of the Premier League standings.

Aston Villa are on a roll having won each of their four games to date, while across all competitions they’re now a highly impressive W8-D2-L1 since mid-July stretching back into last season.

Their last two outings have seen them deservedly down Liverpool (7-2) and Leicester (1-0), so at odds against are a tempting price for all three points on home turf.

Leeds are certainly no pushovers however and although they’ve only taken one point from encounters with top-half outfits Liverpool, Man City and Wolves, they’ve won their other clashes with the current bottom two sides, Fulham and Sheffield Utd.

None of their games have been settled by more than one strike by either team though, so we’d be surprised if this one isn’t also decided by fine margins.

Last term, Dean Smith’s side were heavily reliant upon captain and local boy Jack Grealish for attacking impetus, but the England midfielder now enjoys a better support cast following the signings of Ollie Watkins and Ross Barkley.

However, the most remarkable feature of Villa’s upturn in fortunes has to be at the back, with summer signing Emiliano Martinez impressing between the sticks and the partnership between centre-backs Tyrone Mings and Ezri Konsa looking solid.

Indeed, the turnaround is made all the more startling by the fact that only rock-bottom Norwich shipped more goals than Villa last season.

However, going into the back end of last term, they’ve now registered five clean sheets in eight league matches, with Liverpool the only side to put more than a single goal past them in that humiliating defeat.

Given 10 of Villa’s 14 games since the restart in June have featured fewer than three goals, as all but one of the exceptions came against high-quality opposition in Chelsea, Man Utd and Liverpool, that market commands a particular interest here.

In fact, the other occasion saw them put three goals without reply past a Fulham side that have shipped goals left, right and centre as they look out of their depth at this level.

Leeds under Marcelo Bielsa initially looked set to thrill at every turn, especially after their opening two games saw them go down 4-3 to Jurgen Klopp’s men and then beat the Cottagers by the same scoreline.

However, with just four goals across their last three outings in total, under 2.5 goals has to come into play, which has actually landed in five of six head to heads between these two since 2016/17.

Aston Villa FC
+111

glta

would lean U3

EPL 10/23
Aston Villa FC
+111

The world is in the middle of a global pandemic, but betting on this match should also come with a public "wealth" warning as it looks an impossible puzzle to solve.

Manchester United are the 136 favourite to win the match in 90 minutes and if it's the United team that travelled to France and beat Paris St Germain in the French capital on Tuesday night, then they make appeal at the prices on offer. But and there is a BIG but, if it's the United that have lost their only two home matches against Crystal Palace 3-1 and Tottenham 6-1 then you can forget their chances of them registering their first home win of the new season.

Chelsea are also unpredictable and can they be trusted at 175?

The Blues conceded three goals last weekend at home to Southampton in a 3-3 draw and they were held again on Tuesday in a boring 0-0 Champions League draw at home against Sevilla, a match where neither side managed a shot on target.

Both of these teams need to get their domestic season on track -- and fast -- and with both facing their second Champions League match in midweek it really wouldn't be a surprise to see this end in a draw, which is available at a nice looking 260.

When there is just nothing between the two sides the draw is always the biggest priced outcome on the match result and that is because bettors hardly ever bet the draw (tie) and it's always a great result for the books, so be one of the few that cash if the match ends in a tie after 90 minutes a strategy that has proved profitable to over the years.

Under 2.5 goals looks decent odds at 120 and for more speculative bettors maybe a small play on the match to finish 1-1 as a correct score play at 600

Following their 6-1 thrashing at the hands of Spurs a few weeks back, Manchester United seem to be finding some form and winning momentum coming into their massive clash with Chelsea at Old Trafford on Saturday. A comprehensive 4-1 win over Newcastle followed by a superb 2-1 Champions League win over PSG in Paris, sets them up nicely ahead the visit of Frank Lampard’s team. The visitors form is questionable after reeling off consecutive draws against Southampton and Sevilla midweek, and a loss at Old Trafford might ramp up the rumour mill about Lampard’s future.

Both sides were in action on Tuesday as Chelsea were held to a goalless stalemate with Europa League winners Sevilla and Man Utd stole a late victory in Paris.

The managers will have been pleased to see greater defensive resolve from their charges, with United only conceding once up against Neymar and Kylian Mbappe, while Edouard Mendy demonstrated his first-choice credentials.

However, we’d expect the attacks to come out on top here with at least two goals in all seven meetings over the past two seasons.

United won this fixture 4-0 on the opening day last term but the head to heads have typically been tighter affairs in recent times, though United definitely hold the upper hand.

The Red Devils won three of four meetings last season as they met in both domestic cups and are W4-D2-L1 going back another year, with Chelsea failing to register a single clean sheet over this spell.

That hasn’t just been a problem for the Blues in this fixture and in fact, only five teams have conceded more than them so far in the new campaign.

They were similarly porous last term as they held the worst defensive record amongst the top half of the table, with only Burnley at the bottom of that pile coming close to the 54 they conceded.

Meanwhile, Man Utd only possess one clean sheet from six matches this season when excluding lower division opposition, coming against Brighton in the League Cup.

United have now won five of six matches since an opening day defeat to Palace in all competitions, and even if each victory came on the road they scored at least three times on four occasions. Even if the exception was a 6-1 humiliation by Tottenham, the manner of their triumph midweek will have eased concerns.

Moreover, they rarely fail to score at Old Trafford and since the start of last season, they’ve found the net in 10 of 11 matches when facing the top eight finishers at home or at Wembley, as both teams scored in over half of these.

Chelsea’s current form isn’t so great and they’ve only won two of seven matches in all competitions since an opening day win at Brighton, while even one of those came against Championship strugglers Barnsley.

Their recent record against the top sides hasn’t been fantastic either as they’ve lost three of five winless matches with Arsenal, Bayern, Liverpool, Spurs and Sevilla since August. With that in mind, we’d have to get behind the Man Utd but take some cover draw no bet.

Whereas Frank Lampard is only without youngster Billy Gilmour, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be without the suspended Anthony Martial, there’s fitness doubts surrounding Harry Maguire and Mason Greenwood, while Edinson Cavani will be lacking in match sharpness.

However, Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford have scored five times in United’s last three games between them and will carry the threat, while Maguire hasn’t enjoyed a stellar start to the campaign and may not be missed in any case.

West Ham vs Manchester City | Saturday 24th October 2020, 7:30

Buzzing from their improbable comeback at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, David Moyes’ Hammers will try their luck against a Manchester City side who have won the last 11 straight head-to-head meetings, on the early kick-off this Saturday.

Jubilant from scoring three goals from the 82nd minute onwards to rescue a point from North London, the spirit in the hosts’ camp will be optimistic of the challenge that lies ahead.

Pep Guardiola’s men grabbed an important 1-0 win against Arsenal last time out, their second clean sheet in three games, a much improved state of affairs having conceded six goals from their opening two games of the campaign. The 2019/20 runners up are strong favourites to continue their procession of victories over West Ham United.

No let-up from Raheem Sterling
Raheem Sterling’s creative output has dropped off slightly in the last two seasons, but in doing so has made way for the 25-year-old to become a prolific Premier League forward. Not typically thought of in the same breath as Eden Hazard or Fernando Torres who he has already surpassed in terms of league goals, now just 16 behind ‘household name’ Didier Drogba.

Furthermore he has slammed home 55 in the last three seasons combined, a tally that top end central strikers would be proud.

The England international has delivered four of City’s last five goals, coming in the last three and looks a great punt, odds against to score at anytime (11/10 Betfair).

The betting angles
Despite the gut wrenching and breathtaking Manuel Lanzini strike, which counted for 0.01 xG, a goal probability of one in 100, ruining my tip last weekend, siding with City and Both Teams To Score looks the way to go, just as it did with Spurs.

The Hammers have scored in 10 of their last 11 league outings and have created chances equating to 9.8 xG, the fourth most in the division so far, City sit 11th for that statistic.

Though Spurs deserve their plaudits for racing into a 3-0 lead inside 16 minutes, West Ham’s defending was desperate to say the least. A complete lack of concentration, as a player in Harry Kane, who is not blessed with great speed, managed to pull them all over the shop and drift into the area relatively untraced to bag the third.

City dispatched of the Hammers to an aggregate score of 7-0 last term, so it is a nice fixture as they look to climb back into the top four. Sterling scored a hat-rick in a 5-0 win at the London Stadium last August against a similar backline that will lineup on Saturday afternoon, expect goals.

Manchester City has accumulated all 24 points against West Ham from there last eight Premier League meetings with an aggregate goal count of 25:3.

West Ham have lost their last 9 games against Man City, including 5 of 6 winless outings here against the Citizens by an aggregate 20-3.

Clubs hoping to find their respective ways go at it Saturday when Fulham hosts Crystal Palace in Premier League action at Craven Cottage.

Both sides find themselves looking for answers in the early part of their campaigns, with the Cottagers having the worst go of it thus far. Fulham is at the bottom of the table among the 20 teams playing in England’s top flight.

On the other side, Crystal Palace is only slightly better in the standings, currently positioned in 14th place.

A victory here would surely do both a ton of good at the moment, so expect both to come out chasing all three points in this showdown.

Fulham
Things could not be going worse for Fulham, which has one measly point through five matches. The only plus for the Cottagers is the fact that lone point came in a 1-1 draw against Sheffield United in its most recent game.

Obviously, Fulham is going to want to build on that performance, with the hope of getting itself clear of the relegation zone. Something else to keep in mind is the fact Fulham played an awfully good match in a 1-0 loss against Wolves, which is tied for fourth (but is actually sixth due to the tiebreaker) on the table, just two fixtures back.

Manager Scott Parker has a relatively healthy side that didn’t pick up any new knocks in that Sheffield draw, so you could see him send out a similar Starting XI in search of its first victory.

The Cottagers are not as bad you’d think when it comes to the numbers, sitting on a subpar 5.3 expected goals and a very poor 7.7 expected goals against this season. That results in a -2.4 xGDiff and -0.49 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Crystal Palace
Meet the hardest team to get a read on in the entire league.

Crystal Palace opened its campaign with a 1-0 shutout win against Southampton before pulling off a shocking 3-1 win against Manchester United at Old Trafford. However, the Eagles are 0-2-1 since that effort and can’t seem to regain that early-season magic.

Wilfried Zaha has led the Crystal Palace line, racking up four of its six goals in league play . Zaha clearly needs help in the Eagles’ offensive third, largely due to the fact clubs continue to step up their defending on the team’s lone, true scoring threat.

When comparing its statistical data against Fulham, Crystal Palace is surprisingly worse in every category. Wolves has 3.5 expected goals and 7.9 expected goals against, resulting in a -4.4 xGDiff and -0.87 xGDiff/90 minutes.

If there was ever a time Fulham could secure all three points, this would be it.

The Cottagers were arguably the better side against Sheffield United and deserved a better outcome. As previously mentioned, Crystal Palace is winless since that victory against Manchester United, which doesn’t give me much confidence in the side to land all three points in this spot.

The first instalment of El Clasico for the 2020/21 La Liga season takes place at the Camp Nou on Saturday when Barcelona welcome bitter rivals Real Madrid. The hosts have been well off the pace on the domestic front with just the two wins from their opening five, although they did put in a 5-1 win midweek in the Champions League, albeit against Hungarian league side Ferencvárosi. After a decent start to their La Liga title defence, the rails have come off for Los Blancos following a 1-0 defeat to Cadiz, and a 3-2 home loss midweek in the Champions League to a Shakhtar Donetsk team that had 10 of their main squad in quarantine due of Covid. Speculation is already mounting around the future of Zidane and one expects losses to Barca on Saturday and Gladbach next week in the Champions League could spell the end for the Frenchman

Neither side have quite started the season as they might have liked. Barcelona kicked off with convincing wins over Villarreal (4-0) and Celta Vigo (3-0), while last time out they downed Ferencvaros (5-1) in Europe, but in between they were held to a draw at home by Sevilla and tasted defeat on the road at Getafe.

Real Madrid fared a little better initially as they opened with three wins from four unbeaten games, but home defeats to promoted Cadiz and then a depleted Shakhtar Donetsk have raised question marks.

Thibaut Courtois was a busy man in those two outings, where Los Blancos conceded four times, and given the manner of those defeats another here would practically be considered a crisis in Madrid.

However, Sergio Ramos is expected back for El Clasico, having suffered a minor knee injury against Cadiz and then not featured at all in the shambolic midweek effort.

The vastly experienced centre-back has been missed in big games previously in Europe including losses to Juventus, Ajax, PSG and Man City all since 2017/18, so we’d expect the visitors to be more solid at the back upon his return.

Zinedine Zidane will be without Eden Hazard, Mariano Diaz, Martin Odegaard and Dani Carvajal, while Alvaro Odriozola is also a doubt, but most of those players aren’t regular starters.

He has Nacho to cover for Carvajal at right-back, while Hazard has often been missing for Madrid in any case as injury has prevented him from taking off.

Ronald Koeman isn’t without any concerns of his own as Marc-Andre ter Stegen and Samuel Umtiti are yet to feature this season, with the former amongst the best in the world in his position, while Jordi Alba is still a doubt.

Although Barca could face an issue in defence, Sergino Dest has performed admirably at left-back and Neto, Clement Lenglet and Gerard Pique have some experience playing together now.

Despite their transition state the Catalans will still be able to call upon the likes of Lionel Messi, Antoine Griezmann, Philippe Coutinho and Ansu Fati in attack, while other youngsters Trincao, Pedri and Ousmane Dembele – who is till only 23 – provide options from the bench.

We’ve become accustomed to explosive head to heads with at least three goals in 23 of 26 clashes from the 2011/12 season to the end of 2018. However, only one of five subsequent matches have seen three strikes and at least one team has failed to score in each of the past four meetings.

Given nine of Real Madrid’s 13 league matches since late June have featured no more than two goals, including four of five this season, as well as how damaging a defeat for either side would be, we can see this one falling a bit flat.

Barcelona +104

5-2 +4.86

double order of $5 footlongs ......

1 parlay of 2 Teams
Risk: $10.00 Win: $26.17

Yes
-107
will both teams score crystal palace fc vs fulham fc

FC Barcelona
-115

glta

Barcelona +104 L

5-3 +3.86

Liverpool vs Sheffield United | Saturday 24th October 2020, 3:00

A depleted Liverpool, without a win in their last two Premier League games, will be hoping to return to winning ways when they welcome Sheffield United to Anfield for the final action of Saturday.

Despite their last league win coming back on the 28th September, the Reds will be confident they can claim all three points. The visitors are yet to register a win in any competition this season and the odds are stacked against Chris Wilder’s outfit.

The shot-shy Blades travel to Merseyside having lost 19 of their last 23 visits in the top-flight. Things do not get any easier for them either, with Man City and Chelsea on the horizon in a daunting build-up to the next international break.

With Liverpool as short as 2/9, backing the draw at half-time and home win come full-time may be the best way of squeezing some value out of a Reds victory. This is exactly what happened the first time these sides met at Bramall when a Gigi Wijnaldum goal 20 minutes from time was the only thing that separated the sides.

This did not land when they met at Anfield as Salah scored after four minutes, however, given Liverpool's injuries and busy schedule they may be slower out of the blocks tomorrow.

Sheffield United's troubling a start to this season should see them try to cling on to the point for as long as possible which suits this angle. This bet has landed in the Blades three most recent defeats and it would have been four barring a late Billy Sharp penalty that rescued a point in their last game vs Fulham.

Southampton vs Everton | Sunday 25th October 2020, 10:00

Southampton host unbeaten Everton at St Mary’s this Sunday in what should be a competitive affair with both teams believing they can nick the three points.

Saints got off to a shaky start this campaign, picking up zero points in their first two matches but have since collected seven in their last three. The hosts possess quality all over the pitch so it’s no surprise to see them get the rub of the green in their most recent fixtures.

There were questions arising before the season as to whether all of Everton’s new signings could gel together and put on a cohesive performance and so far they’re proving the doubters wrong. With 13 points from a possible 15, the Toffees are sitting nicely at the top of the table coming into this match.

Everton will be without a few key players, however, with Richarlison suspended after picking up a red card in the Merseyside derby, and James Rodríguez, who remains a doubt after picking up a knock last weekend. Seamus Coleman is also ruled out which is a big blow in the back line.

Although they’ve been churning out positive results, the Toffees have scored three or more goals away from home in just one of their last 25 away league matches – coming against relegated Watford. With a potential five assists removed from the squad, the service to in-form striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin may be hard to come by this time round.

Given that the match should stay competitive, I’m happy to add a card for each team to Everton to score Under 3

Wolves welcome Newcastle to Molineux on Sunday looking for a third consecutive win after victories over Fulham and Leeds. Steve Bruce will be looking for more consistency from his team after two wins, two losses and a draw from their opening five.

Wolves managed to find a way through against a tricky Leeds side on Monday night, even if it did come via a large deflection, and propel them up to sixth in the table. it’s the second 1-0 victory on the bounce for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side as they now have the second lowest goals per game figure in the league, continuing their trend from the previous two seasons.

Newcastle have had a rollercoaster start to the season, beating both West Ham and Burnley by two goal margins, drawing to Spurs though have been comfortably beaten by Man United and Brighton, so it’s difficult to say which Magpies side are going to show up for this encounter.

What we wouldn’t expect is for the hosts to run riot here. Newcastle have seen two goals in both of their away games so far against Spurs and West Ham, and considering Wolves have scored just two goals at home so far this season in three games across all competitions, we’re not convinced by their ability to put teams to the sword.

The losses of Diogo Jota and Matt Doherty have clearly taken their toll on a Wolves side that were generally limited in terms of output as it was, averaging 1.29 gpg in their two seasons since returning to the premier league, with only Brighton, Southampton, Burnley, Crystal Palace and Newcastle themselves managing less per game from sides that have avoided relegation in both seasons.

This all points to an ‘Under 2.5 goals’ bet, though at such a short price there’s value to be found elsewhere in the market.

While the midlands side have been unconvincing, they’ve still managed to grind out results and clean sheets in three of their five matches so far, and the win to nil is very much on the cards again here.

However, the multibet provides much better value a the same price considering Newcastle have managed to find the net in seven of their eight outings so far this season in all competitions, and with the attacking potency of Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin we wouldn’t surprised if they netted here, though Wolves should have enough about them to grind out another result.

Things get started bright and early Sunday at the St. Mary’s Stadium, where Southampton hosts unbeaten Everton in Premier League action.

The Saints, who sit in 12th place and are currently tied with four other clubs on seven points, hope they can put the first defeat on their opponent’s record.

Everton has been all class at the start of the campaign, which has it top of the table on 13 points. The Toffees are level on points with local rivals Liverpool, after the Reds defeated Sheffield United on Saturday, but have an advantage with a plus-seven goal difference.

Southampton
It has been a tale of two seasons for Southampton thus far.

The Saints opened their campaign with losses against Crystal Palace and Spurs before reeling off shutout wins against Burnley and West Bromwich Albion. In their most recent match, Southampton rallied twice against Chelsea to earn a 3-3 draw at Stamford Bridge.

Danny Ings has led the way for Southampton’s attack, recording a team-leading four goals this season. If the Saints are going to have any success against a talented Everton side, they need to get more contribution from their supporting cast.

The Saints are pretty solid when it comes to the numbers, sitting on 6.4 expected goals and 5.8 expected goals against this season. That results in a +0.6 xGDiff and +0.11 xGDiff/90 minutes. Those stats put them in the middle of the Premier League

Everton
Will he or won’t he play?

That is the question lingering around star James Rodriguez, who picked up a knock in Everton’s 2-2 draw against Liverpool in the latest chapter of the Merseyside Derby last weekend at Goodison Park.

First, it was reported the Colombian international would miss the match, but his appearance at Friday’s training session and subsequent comment from manager Carlo Ancelotti, stating his marquee player was “definitely not out,” has many believing he will be ready for this fixture.

Getting Rodriguez on the pitch would be a huge coup for Ancelotti, who is already going to be without left winger Richarlison, who is serving a suspension after picking up a red card against Liverpool.

When comparing its statistical data against Southampton, Everton is far superior and boats some of the best overall numbers in the league. The Toffees have 9.9 xG and 5.1 xGA, resulting in a +4.8 xGDiff and +0.95 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Everton’s xGDiff and xGDiff/90 minutes are only second to Liverpool (+4.9 xGDiff and +0.97 xGDiff/90) and somehow second in xGA to lowly Burnley (5.0 xGA), which is 12 points behind it in 18th place in the relegation zone.

There have been at least three goals in the Toffees’ last four league tilts, which has me confident in this angle. What gives me even more confidence? Southampton has seen at least three goals in five of its last six home matches against Everton across all competitions.