NFL Week 4 betting at BetMGM

Most bet games
1. Steelers-Colts
2. Jaguars-Texans
3. Rams-Bears

Most bet teams
1. Steelers -1.5
2. Jaguars +6
3. Rams +3

Most bet teams $
1. Steelers -1.5
2. Bengals -4.5
3. Jaguars +6

Popular (+60% of bets) NFL Week 4 bets at BetMGM

75% on Steelers -1.5
73% on Bengals -4.5
69% on Bills +2.5
69% on Rams +3
68% on Lions -3.5
65% on Jaguars +6
62% on Patriots +10.5
62% on Eagles -1.5

NFL Week 4 betting at BetMGM

Most bet games
1. Steelers-Colts
2. Jaguars-Texans
3. Rams-Bears

Most bet teams
1. Steelers -1.5
2. Jaguars +6
3. Rams +3

Most bet teams $
1. Steelers -1.5
2. Bengals -4.5
3. Jaguars +6

Broncos @ Jets (-7.5)
Broncos (1-2)
Denver is 2-0 ATS as a road dog TY; visitor is 3-0 ATS in their games.
Broncos outscored last two opponents 12-3 in second half.
Denver is only 11-43 on third down conversions.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1

Under Payton, Denver is 4-5 ATS as a road underdog (2-0 TY)..
Denver held last two opponents to 251/223 yards.
Rookie QB Nix hasn’t thrown TD pass yet, has four INT’s.
Broncos are 8-16 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Under is 16-10 in their last 26 road games.

Jets (2-1)
Jets won last two games, giving up 2 TD’s on 19 drives.
Jets have converted 21-37 third down plays.
Jets last two opponents were 7-23 on third down.
Team total: over 2-0-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1

Under Saleh, Jets are 12-15 ATS at home
Since 2021, Jets are 6-11-1 ATS coming off a win.
You’re reading armadillosports.com
Rodgers is 161-86-1 as an NFL starter.
Under is 12-6 in their last 18 home games.

Jets’ OC Hackett was 4-11 as Denver’s coach in ’22, quickly got fired.
Jets won 31-21/16-9 at Denver the last two years.
Broncos are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to the Garden State
Over is 6-4 in last ten series games.

Vikings @ Packers (-2.5)
Vikings (3-0)
Minnesota won first three games, giving up three TD’s on 31 drives.
Vikings have outscored opponents 41-10 in first half.
Last six years, Vikings were 8-10 ATS in NFC North road games.
Team total: over 3-0
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0

QB Darnold is 24-35 as an NFL starter, 3-0 with Vikings.
Vikings are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
Under O’Connell, Minnesota is 4-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Vikings are 13-10-3 ATS in last 26 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Minnesota has two takeaways in all three games (+2 turnovers)

Packers (2-1)
Sounds like QB Love might be back under center this week.
Packers won last two games, giving up 3 TD’s on 19 drives.
Green Bay outscored last two foes 30-7 in first half.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1

First three games, Packers ran ball for 163/261/188 yards.
Green Bay is 21-13-1 ATS in last 35 games as a home favorite.
Last five years, Green Bay was 10-5 in NFC North home games.
Former Boston College HC Hafley is Green Bay’s new DC.
First two games, opponents are 9-32 on third down.

Teams split last eight series games.
Vikings are 3-3-1 SU/3-4 ATS in last seven visits to Lambeau.
Under is 2-0-1 in last three meetings.

Saints @ Falcons (-2.5)
Saints (2-1)
Saints scored 47-44 points in wins, lost 15-12 at home LW.
New Orleans has outscored opponents 68-19 in first half.
Saints are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 games as a road underdog.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0

Last six years, Saints are 12-5-1 ATS in AFC South road games.
First two games, Saints ran ball for 180/190 yards; LW, only 89.
Last five years, New Orleans is 19-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB Carr is 74-89 as an NFL starter.
Under is 16-10 in their last 26 road games.

Falcons (1-2)
Atlanta is 0-2 at home, scoring three TD’s on 18 drives.
Falcons were in red zone last two drives LW, didn’t score on either one.
Falcons are 6-27 on third down, opponents 20-44.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0

Atlanta is 4-14-1 ATS last 19 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 8-11-1 ATS last 20 games coming off a loss.
Last two years, Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in NFC South home games.
New QB Cousins is 78-72-2 as an NFL starter.
Raheem Morris is 22-40 as an NFL head coach.

Saints won nine of last 12 series games.
Falcons covered four of last five meetings.
Saints won five of last six visits to Atlanta.
Over is 4-2 in last six series games.

Eagles (-2.5) @ Buccaneers
Eagles (2-1)
Eagles’ three games were decided by total of nine points.
Eagles didn’t score on first 6 drives LW, scored TD’s on last 2 drives.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1

Philly is 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 7-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Hurts is 38-21 as an NFL starter.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 16-17-2 ATS coming off a win.
Opponents have converted only 11-33 third down plays.

Buccaneers (2-1)
First three games, Tampa Bay gave up 138-139-136 rushing yards.
Last two games, Bucs were held to 216-223 total yards.
Bucs are 5-21 on third down their last two games.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1

Last three years, Bucs were 1-4 ATS a home underdog.
QB Mayfield is 44-49 as an NFL starter, 12-10 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is 10-8-2 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 7-3 in last ten Tampa Bay home games.
Bucs are 4-10-2 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.

Tampa Bay (+3) beat Philly 32-9 in playoffs last year.
Buccaneers won five of last six series games.
Eagles are 1-3 SU/ATS in last four visits to Tampa.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.

Bengals (-6) @ Panthers
Bengals (0-2)
Bengals are 0-3, losing by 6-1-5 points.
Bengals scored 25-33 points last two games (6 TD’s on 16 drives).
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: under 1-0-1

Bengals are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite.
QB Burrow is 34-27-1 as an NFL starter.
Last 4+ years, Cincinnati is 17-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Washington scored on every drive against them last week.
Bengals are 7-2-2 ATS last 11 games vs NFC opponents.

Panthers (1-2)
Carolina scored 36 points LW, scored 10-3 points in weeks 1-2.
Switching to veteran QB Dalton made a huge difference.
Dalton is 84-82-2 as an NFL starter, mostly with Cincinnati.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1

Carolina outgained Las Vegas 437-331 last week.
Panthers are 7-5-2 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.
Last 3+ years, Carolina is 6-11 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Panthers are 7-34 on third down, opponents 19-40.
Dalton averaged 7.8 yards/pass attempt LW (3.9/2.5 weeks 1-2).

Dalton was 70-65-2 as Cincy’s QB from 2011-19.
Cincinnati is 3-1-1 in last five series games.
Bengals lost two of last three visits to Charlotte.

Jaguars @ Texans (-4.5)
Jaguars (0-3)
Jaguars lost first three games, scoring four TD’s on 29 drives.
In three games, Jaguars are 7-32 on third down.
Last two games, Jaguars were outscored 47-6 in first half.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1

Jacksonville has been outscored 22-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
First three games, Lawrence averaged only 5.8/5.8/2.9 yards/pass attempt.
QB Lawrence is 21-34 as an NFL starter.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 10-10 ATS as an underdog.
Last two years, Jaguars are 4-2 ATS in AFC South road games.

Texans (2-1)
Last two games, Texans scored two TD’s on 22 drives.
Houston’s two wins were by 2-6 points.
Last two games, Texans ran ball for 75-38 yards.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1

Texans are 4-12 ATS last 16 games as home favorites.
Under Ryans, Houston is 5-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 12-8 as an NFL starter.
Last two years, Texans were 2-4 ATS in AFC South home games.
Houston is 5-12-1 ATS in last 18 games vs NFC opponents.
Last two games, Texas converted 8-28 on third down.

Texans won 10 of last 12 meetings.
Jaguars won 24-21/31-3 in last two visits to Houston.
Road team won last four meetings.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.

Steelers (-2) @ Colts
Steelers (3-0)
Steelers won first three games, allowing two TD’s on 27 drives.
Pittsburgh is +4 in turnovers in its first three games.
All three Steeler games stayed under the total.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0

Steelers have only three TD’s on 30 drives (10 field goals).
QB Fields is 13-28 as an NFL starter (3-0 with Steelers).
Pittsburgh is 11-6-1 in its last 18 games coming off a win.
Steelers are 14-6-1 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Last 3+ years, Steelers are 3-1 ATS as a road favorite.

Colts (1-2)
Colts got their first win week LW, after losses by 2-6 points.
First three games, Indy was outgained by 82.7 yards/game.
Indy has averaged 9.5/5.7/7.4 yards per pass attempt.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1

Indy is 16-16 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Richardson is 3-4 as an NFL starter.
Under Steichen, Colts are 5-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Steichen, Colts are 9-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Last two weeks, Colts ran ball for 140-150 yards.

Pittsburgh won eight of last nine series games.
Steelers are 4-1 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Indy.
Last four meetings went over the total.

Rams @ Bears (-1.5)
Rams (1-2)
Rams got first win LW, rallying back from early 14-0 deficit.
Rams have been outscored 48-13 in first half of games.
Under McVay, Rams are 29-35-2 ATS coming off a win.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1

Rams have been outrushed 531-234 in three games.
Rams are 12-35 on third down, opponents 19-43.
LA is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a road dog.
Rams are 2-6-2 ATS in last 10 games with spread of 3 or less points.
QB Stafford is 29-20 as Rams’ QB (was 74-93-1 with Detroit).

Bears (1-2)
Bears scored three offensive TD on 32 drives in first three games.
Chicago was outscored 40-13 in first half of those games.
Bears outscored opponents 40-17 in second half of those games.
Team total: under 2-0-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0

Under Eberflus, Bears are 3-3-1 ATS as home favorites.
Chicago converted 9-21 third down plays LW (8-30 first two games).
Bears are 4-8-2 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Rookie QB Williams averaged 3.0/3.0/5.9 yards/pass in his three games.
Bears scored TD’s on pick-6, blocked punt in their only win.

Rams won last three meetings, all by 10+ points.
Rams lost last three visits to Chicago (last visit, 2018)
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.

Commanders @ Cardinals (-5.5)
Commanders (2-1)
Short week/long travel for Commanders after Monday nite win.
Washington won last two games, scoring 21-38 points.
Last two games, Commanders scored 5 TD’s, kicked 8 FG’s on 13 drives.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1

Commanders are 7-3 ATS last ten games as a road underdog.
Washington converted 12 of last 23 third down plays.
Commanders are 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
Washington OC Kingsbury was Cardinals’ head coach from 2019-22.
Opponents converted 19-31 third down plays.

Cardinals (1-2)
Arizona lost 20-13 LW, after scoring 7 TD’s in first two games.
Cardinals ran ball for 77 yards LW (124-231 first two games).
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1

QB Murray is 29-39-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Last 2+ years, Cardinals are 2-1 ATS as a home favorite.
LW, Arizona converted 1-9 on third down (14-24 first two games).
Arizona is 15-11 ATS in last 26 games coming off a loss.

Washington won three of last four series games.
Commanders lost three of last four visits to Arizona.
Last four meetings stayed under the total.

Patriots @ 49ers (-10.5)
Patriots (1-2)
Patriots have scored only three TD’s on their first 28 drives.
New England has averaged 4.8/4.2/1.8 yards/pass attempt.
Patriots are 30-41 since Brady left town.
Team total: over 1-1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1

New England is 10-13 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
New England gave up 23-24 points in losing their last two games.
Patriots were 8-27 on third down in those games.
Patriots are 0-5-1 ATS in last six games vs NFC teams.
Patriots QB Brissett is 19-32 as an NFL starter.

49ers (1-2)
49ers lost their last two games, giving up 23-27 points.
49ers outgained Rams 425-296 LW, but their special teams got riddled.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0-1

49ers are 9-7 ATS in last sixteen games off a loss.
QB Purdy is 22-7 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 11-6 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite.
49ers are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
49ers have averaged 6.9/7.1/9.3 yards/pass attempt.

Road team won last four meetings.
Patriots won 30-17/30-21 in last two visits here.
Under is 3-2 in last five series games.

Browns @ Raiders (-3)
Browns (1-2)
Cleveland scored 17-18-15 points in its 1-2 start.
Browns are 8-43 on 3rd down so far, 7-11 on 4th down.
Browns have gained 230-297-217 yards in their three games.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1

Browns won their only road game; visitors are 3-0 ATS in their games.
QB Watson is 38-33 as an NFL starter, 9-6 with Browns.
Cleveland is 11-3-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Browns have averaged 2.74.8/3.3 yards/pass attempt. .

Raiders (1-2)
Raiders have given up 22-23-36 points in their 1-2 start.
Las Vegas is 14-18-1 ATS in last 33 games following a loss.
Raiders have converted only 12-37 third down plays.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1

Last 2+ years, Raiders are 9-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Raiders are 10-6-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.
First three games, Las Vegas was outrushed by 72 yards/game.
Las Vegas is 14-18-1 ATS in last 33 games following a loss.
QB Minshew is 16-24 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.

This is teams’ first meeting wince 2021.
Raiders won last four meetings (3-1 ATS)
Browns lost three of last four visits to Oakland.
This is Browns’ first visit to Las Vegas.
Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.

Chiefs (-7.5) @ Chargers
Chiefs (3-0)
Chiefs won their first three games, by 7-1-5 points.
Kansas City wis 3-0 despite being minus-4 in turnovers.
Chiefs were down 16-10/14-13 at halftime of last two games.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1

Last 4+ years, KC is 14-16-1 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Mahomes is 92-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 9-6 ATS in last 15 AFC West road games.
Last two weeks, Chiefs converted 7-22 third down plays.
Over is 16-10 in their last 26 road games.

Chargers (2-1)
QB Herbert re-injured his ankle last week; check status.
Backup QB Heinicke is 13-15-1 as an NFL starter.
Bolts are 17-25-2 ATS in last 44 games coming off a loss.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1

Last 5+ years, Chargers are 5-7-1 ATS as home underdogs.
Chargers outrushed first three opponents, 456-275.
Chargers are 6-4 ATS in last 10 AFC West home games.
QB Herbert is 32-34 as an NFL starter.
Under is 3-0 in their first three games.

Chiefs won 17 of last 20 series games.
Chiefs are 10-0 SU/8-2 ATS in last ten road series games.

Jacksonville at Houston (-6; 44.5)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Jacksonville was embarrassed on Monday Night in Buffalo and are one of only three winless teams remaining in the NFL.

Nevertheless, the market has come in on the Jaguars ( it was +3.5 during the summer) largely due to the Houston offensive struggles. The Texans are just 31st in early down success rate and 29th in EPA/play and are clearly missing Joe Mixon (questionable for Sunday) in the running game.

In addition, CJ Stroud is starting to regress in the turnover department, having thrown two picks last week. He had the fewest interceptions of any signal caller with 400+ dropbacks last season, but he ranked only 11th out of 25 such quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate, per PFF. In Week 1, only Kirk Cousins and Jalen Hurts had a higher rate of turnover-worthy throws than Stroud. There looks to be more turnover regression coming for last year’s Rookie of the Year.

NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3-points or more, going 8-19-2 SU but 20-8-1 ATS (71.4%) in their last 29 tries.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5; 47) vs. Carolina Panthers
Who would have thought this would be a monster game for the Bengals just four weeks ago, but here we are. After the loss on Monday night, this is a must-win spot for Cincinnati, and they drew a great matchup versus the market darling Panthers. We saw the Bengals offense we wanted to see on Monday, but the defense could not control Daniels. This opponent is easier on both sides of the ball this week. Carolina’s defensive line is a mash unit, and the offense, while better under Dalton, is now banged up as well. Diante Johnson was added to the injury report on Thursday with a groin issue, but he is expected to play. Without Thielen on the field, Johnson’s ability to be 100 percent becomes even more of a focal point.

The Bengals should be able to pick a score on offense. The question is, can the defense get stops?

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5; 41.5)
1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Saints’ offensive line was considered bottom five in the NFL before the season started. They played way over their skis in Weeks 1 and 2 but came crashing down to earth against the Eagles in Week 3. A large part of that was due to injuries, and it does not look like it will get much help this week. They lost their center to the IR, and Cesar Ruiz has been ruled out this week as well. Derek Carr’s splits when protected and under pressure are extreme. He needs his offensive line to be intact to have success. Kamara was a surprising add to the injury report as well. The Eagles also gave the NFL the script on how to slow down this Saints running game by consistently having five down linemen. I would expect Atlanta to copy that this week.

The Falcons’ offense is also facing injuries on the offensive line, but they have looked better each of the last two weeks with Kirk Cousins to get healthier as the season progresses. I expect they will have enough success to win a lower-scoring game.

Updated NFL Week 4 betting at BetMGM

Most bet games
1. Steelers-Colts
2. Bengals-Panthers
3. Vikings-Packers

Most bet teams
1. Steelers -2
2. Bengals -4.5
3. Rams +3

Most bet teams $
1. Vikings +3
2. Steelers -2
3. Bengals -4.5

Sunday’s Week 4 NFL lopsided sides (by total bets) at ESPNBET


80% on Bengals -4.5 (at CAR)
67% on Vikings +3 (at GB)
63% on Rams +3 (at CHI)
63% on Browns -2.5 (at LVR)
62% on Bills +2.5 (at BAL)
61% on Commanders +3.5 (at AZ)