Scheffler will lead the field this week in Fort Worth, Texas, at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he finished third in 2023 and second (playoff loss to best friend Sam Burns) in 2022. Scheffler is +280 this time to go one place better.

Morikawa (14-1) also lost in a playoff here in 2020.

Jordan Spieth is a former winner (2016) and three-time runner-up (2015, 2017, 2021) at Colonial Country Club and shares a 22-1 price tag with Max Homa.

Tony Finau (35-1) finished runner-up here in 2019 and was on the first page of the leaderboard most of last weekend before eventually finishing T-18.

Brian Harman has three top-10 finishes at Colonial and is part of a large group of players priced at 40-1, including Harris English, Min Woo Lee, Si Woo Kim and Sungjae Im.

Defending champion Emiliano Grillo, who won for us last year, is 150-1 while Adam Schenk, who lost in the playoff to Grillo, is 100-1.

Other former Colonial champions in this week’s field include 2014 winner Adam Scott (50-1), 2018 winner Justin Rose (60-1), 2015 winner Chris Kirk (66-1), 2020 winner Daniel Berger (70-1), 2010 and 2012 winner Zach Johnson (300-1), 2017 winner Kevin Kisner (1500-1) and 2007 winner Rory Sabbatini (2500-1).

The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club was initially established in 1946 and is the longest non-major event to be held at the same site on the PGA Tour. Much like the Memorial Tournament is for Jack Nicklaus and Bay Hill is for Arnold Palmer, the tournament at Colonial is associated with the late Ben Hogan, who was a resident of Fort Worth and won this event five times (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959).

Annika Sörenstam played in the 2003 tournament and became the first woman to play in a PGA Tour event in 58 years since Babe Zaharias made three cuts as an amateur in 1945. Sörenstam’s participation drew high media attention, but she shot 71 and 74 and missed the cut by four strokes.

Due to its invitational status, the Charles Schwab Challenge field is just 132 players, with 65 players and ties making the weekend cut. In 2020, the tournament was held June 11-14 as the first PGA Tour event staged since the interruption of the regular schedule in mid-March because of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the interests of maximum health and safety, the event had no spectators, a PGA Tour first.

Charles Schwab took over as the title sponsor beginning a deal in 2019. Previous sponsors were Dean & Deluca (2016-2017), Crowne Plaza (2007-2015), Bank of America (2003-2006), MasterCard (1996-2002) and Southwestern Bell (1989-1994).

Many of golf’s legends have won this tournament, including Ben Hogan (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959), Sam Snead (1950), Cary Middlecoff (1951), Roberto Di Vincenzo (1957), Tommy Bolt (1958), Julius Boros (1960, 1963), Arnold Palmer (1962), Billy Casper (1964, 1968), Gene Littler (1971), Lee Trevino (1976, 1978), Ben Crenshaw (1977, 1990), Fuzzy Zoeller (1981), Jack Nicklaus (1982), Lanny Wadkins (1988), Nick Price (1994, 2002), Tom Watson (1998) and Phil Mickelson (2000).

Colonial Country Club was opened in 1936 by Marvin Leonard, and the course was designed by John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell with a Keith Foster redesign in 2008. The most recent redesign was done last year by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner. It is in Fort Worth, Texas, just five minutes northwest of Texas Christian University. The course is nicknamed “Hogan’s Alley” in honor of Ben Hogan, who won five times on his home track. Colonial is a classical par-70 tree-lined parklands design that plays at 7,289 yards. It has played at a scoring average of 70.42 (+0.42) and has ranked as the 10th-most-difficult course on the PGA Tour over the last five years.

What makes Colonial difficult are the tight fairways (27.5 yards average fairway width — fourth narrowest on tour) and the smaller greens (5,000 square feet — fifth smallest on tour).

The fairways and rough (2.5-3 inches) are Bermudagrass and the greens are Bentgrass. The greens will roll fast at around 12.5 on the stimpmeter.

Power and distance are not necessarily much of an advantage here. Players will also tee off in a different direction after every hole. Colonial is a much tighter course off the tee than what we see out of other Maxwell designs like Augusta National and Southern Hills. Gil Hanse redesigned Southern Hills for last year’s PGA to rave reviews. Colonial Country Club is hoping for the same thing as Hanse will begin the renovation here after this past year’s event.

Four water hazards are in play on six holes along with 64 bunkers. Twelve of the 18 holes are doglegs. Long-term history shows that the best way to win here is to hit the fairways, be precise with the irons, be able to shape shots in multiple directions and putt the lights out as this is seen as a “ball strikers’ course.”

Colonial opens with a par-5 and a short par-4 that are the two easiest holes on the course. Then, the “Horrible Horseshoe” (holes 3-5) begins, and those are three of the toughest holes on the layout. Since 2003, this is the second-most-difficult three-hole stretch on tour and plays at a combined 0.49 shots over par.

The two par-5s are the first (565 yards) and the 11th, measuring over 635 yards, often playing as a three-shot hole to reach the green.

The four par-3s are all on the longer side and are one of the more difficult par-3s on tour.

In terms of the Hanse $21 million renovations, most of the greens have been lowered, and some have shifted slightly back or to either side a few yards and could be more receptive targets. Several barrancas, which are dry streambeds to channel water during rain periods for better drainage, have been added to the course on holes 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 15, 16, 17 and 18.

Furthermore, many trees and 20 bunkers were removed. The removal of trees brightens the course a bit as Hanse felt it was too dark, but it also allows potential windy conditions to play even more of a factor.

The course was also lengthened by 89 yards.

Correlated courses to Colonial include Harbour Town, Sedgefield, Innisbrook, Pebble Beach, Southern Hills, TPC Sawgrass and Waialae.

Tournament Trends

Age is more than just a number

Other than Sam Burns in 2022, Daniel Berger in 2020 and Jordan Spieth in 2016, 17 of the last 20 winners at Colonial have been over age 30.

Experience matters

Of the last 14 winners, only Burns in 2022, Berger in 2020 and then-World No. 1 Adam Scott (2014) had fewer than three career starts at Colonial.

You have to go back to 2001 for the last time a player (Sergio Garcia) won his first PGA Tour title at Colonial.

Four of the last eight winners posted a T-14 finish of better at Colonial the season before their win.

Incoming form

Each of the last 11 winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge has posted a top-8 finish within their six most recent starts heading into Colonial.

Tony Finau (35-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Finau never made a move on the weekend at the PGA Championship, settling for a T-18 finish. However, he did the lead the field at Valhalla for Strokes Gained: Approach and was sixth for Greens In Regulation.

He also has had some previous success at Colonial with a runner-up in 2019 and a fourth in 2022.

It has been a little over a year since Finau last won at the Mexico Open, but this looks like a good spot to get on track as there is good history for him in Texas, not only at Colonial but also with a 2022 victory and a runner-up earlier this season at the Houston Open.

Brian Harman (40-1, SuperBook Sports)

Harman has eight top-30 appearances in 11 appearances at Colonial, including three top-10 finishes.

He was in the top 10 last week at the PGA Championship for Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a sign of good ball-striking form.

On a shorter and positional course like Colonial, Harman’s iron play and driving accuracy off the tee should put him in contention.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (50-1, BetMGM)

Bez has finished 15th and 21st at Colonial the last two years.

While he missed the cut last week at the PGA by one stroke, he had also finished top 30 or better in six consecutive starts leading into last week.

The South African is an excellent putter and scrambler, and his deficit off the tee is mitigated this week on a shorter course.

Keegan Bradley (55-1, Circa Sports)

Bradley makes his first appearance in four years at Colonial (T-32 in 2020).

He ranked fifth last week at the PGA for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking behind only Schauffele, DeChambeau, Hovland (the top 3 finishers at the PGA) and World No. 1 Scheffler. Furthermore, he ranked first in last week’s field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and second for Driving Accuracy.

Bradley has not putted as well as last year, but he hits greens regularly (third over the last 36 rounds) and should give himself some chances.

Charles Schwab Challenge betting at BetMGM

Favorites
▪️ Scottie Scheffler +275
▪️ Collin Morikawa +1200
▪️ Jordan Spieth +2200

Highest Ticket%
▪️ Scheffler 13.4%
▪️ Morikawa 9.2%
▪️ Max Homa (+2200) 6.5%

Highest Handle%
▪️ Scheffler 30.0%
▪️ Morikawa 9.9%
▪️ Spieth 6.7%