NRFI -105 (Play to -120)

Starting Pitchers: Cooper Criswell vs. Zack Littell

This is a fair price for a game with an eight-run total that features two roughly league-average offenses.

Both lineups are fairly balanced from top to bottom, so I'm not projecting the runs to be especially likely to come from the top of the order.

What puts the NRFI over the edge is the pitching matchup.

Tampa's Zack Littell has a 3.17 expected FIP and 3.00 ERA his first time through the order, both better than his overall numbers. Cooper Criswell — albeit in a smaller sample size — has just a 1.29 ERA as a starter his first time through the order (using Criswell's combined stats between 2023 and 2024).

NRFI -110 (Play to -120)

Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Clarke Schmidt

I can't recall taking any Yankees NRFIs this season — and frankly, I don't love it — but I'm trusting my model over my intuition here.

The most significant factor is the splits on Seattle's Bryan Woo. He's made just two starts in 2024, but throughout his career (20 starts dating back through last season), he has a 2.00 ERA his first time through the order, with a 3.22 expected FIP.

Given the somewhat limited threat posed by the Mariners against Schmidt — who has a 0.87 ERA his first time through the order this season — the NRFI is worth playing at reasonably low juice.

YRFI -140 (Play to -150)

Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton vs. Javier Assad

I debated whether this one was worth the juice, but it more than qualifies based on my model projection, which implies a fair value of around -170.

The game has a 10-run total, features one of my favorite YRFI teams in Atlanta, and two pitchers whose underlying numbers are relatively higher than their ERAs. That points to some regression for both starters, which should come today against two solid offenses.

But what ultimately forced me to play the YRFI was the weather at Wrigley.

The forecast is for winds out to left field up to 25 mph and temperatures in the mid-80s. That combination should boost scoring generally, but especially early in the game before temperatures fall.

If you don't want to drink the juice, this pick is also a solid parlay piece. You could also take the Braves team YRFI line at +205 on DraftKings.