YRFI -105 (Play to -130)

Starting Pitchers: Ronel Blanco vs. Marcus Stroman

Two of my favorite YRFI teams meet in this series, with some of baseball's best hitters getting guaranteed first inning at bats.

The total is somewhat low at 8.5 runs, thanks to both pitchers coming into the game with low ERAs.

However, both have been worse overall based on xERA and xFIP. Crucially, their first time through the order xFIPs are much less impressive at 4.68 (Stroman) and 5.79 (Blanco), respectively. Some of that ERA regression should hit today based on the difficult matchups for both pitchers.

NRFI -113 (Play to -130)

Starting Pitchers: Ben Lively vs. Erick Fedde

This is another game where we have a slight risk on one team, and the other is extremely unlikely to score in the first inning.

The unlikely-to-score team is of course the White Sox, who have the worst offense in baseball. Not a single hitter in their lineup has an above average wRC+ this year.

Cleveland is the riskier side, but it's implied for just over four total runs in the game and has a somewhat difficult matchup against Erick Fedde. Since returning from overseas this season, Fedde has a 3.46 ERA with similar xERA and xFIP numbers. His ERA also gets much better his first time through the order, dropping to 1.20.