Good luck everyone. Trader, I am probably going to lay off MLS until after the WC, unless I see something that really jumps out at me.

Finally caught one of these folks comps. I think they are 6-2 last 8 or so comps. I have backed Nigeria a couple of times already and got burned and now that they have scared me away I am sure they will give a titanic effort and beat Iceland.But I dont trust them.

twitter.com/LpwSports
1* World Cup Nigeria/Iceland Over 1.5(-190)

365737101
SOC Brazil -1.75 -105 X2 .. .... winner

WC 8-13 -180

Continuing the synthetic WC parlay with #3:

Iceland is a very tough nation to beat these days, playing out of a strong organization and discipline. While boring to watch, that type of team foundation is ideal for tournaments (where the formula beats teams with star players on teams that lack foundation). Nigeria is not nearly as strong in this department of organization and discipline.

It's a slippery tournament so far, so I continue to build in room for error with Iceland to win and draw at about -220.

365753284
SOC Nigeria +195

glta

Gl with this Gary. If Nigeria can somehow find back of net,you could get this.

Gary,nice work today,I didnt have big enough set to take Nigeria.I am going with this largely because so many of these games over last week should have been draws and statistically we are almost bound to have a few Draws this weekend.

6-22 World Cup

3* Serbia vs Switzerland Draw +190

365770097
SOC Serbia +172

365770730
SOC Serbia DRAW +202

glta

WC 9-13 +15

we were robbed TP !!! shoulda been a 2-2 draw



365770097
SOC Serbia +172

365770730
SOC Serbia DRAW +202

glta

WC 9-15 -185

lol. Gary , it has been the story of WC for me.Still plenty of games left .

Belgium vs. Tunisia, 8 a.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
Belgium -237
Tunisia +814
Draw +388
Bet to Watch
Belgium -1.25 (-117)

If you just looked at the scoreline from Belgium’s 3-0 win over Panama, you’d think it went as expected. But the truth is that it took some time — and some magic — for the Red Devils to break down Los Canaleros. Dries Mertens’ wonder-volley just after halftime was the stroke of brilliance the Belgians needed to relieve the pressure and from there they cruised.

The same logic can be applied to Tunisia’s 2-1 loss to England in their opening match. On the surface it may look like England were lucky to get a stoppage-time winner to get by the Eagles of Carthage, but in truth Tunisia was lucky not to lose by four or five goals. Tunisia created just 0.1 expected goals (plus the penalty) against England while allowing 3.1. This was a comprehensive win by England, despite the scoreline.

Truthfully, it was a disappointing performance by Tunisia. They weren’t expected to win, but they should have been more organized and harder to break down than they were, and that doesn’t bode well heading into a match against another attacking dynamo.

In fact, Belgium’s group of attackers is probably more prolific than England’s. Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Mertens all bring something different — and dangerous — to the table. They are a handful and Tunisia didn’t show the ability to cope with that handful against England.

This isn’t to say that Tunisia won’t adjust and improve, but they will need to win this match if they have any intention of playing in the next round. That will force the North African side to play a more open style and make them ripe for the picking. It may take Belgium some time to figure it out, but that’s no reason to worry. As they showed against Panama, the goals will come in bunches for these guys.

Mexico vs. South Korea, 11 a.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
Mexico -144
South Korea +479
Draw +262
Bet to Watch
South Korea +.5 (+125)

Mexico announced their presence with authority in a 1-0 victory over Germany, one of the tournament’s favorites. But, in that match, they played as a counter-attacking side. They ceded most of the possession to Germany and then attacked the favorites with speed, taking advantage of a midfield constructed to have the ball rather than one built to stop attacks. Mexico picked an attacking trio of Javier Hernandez, Hirving Lozano and Carlos Vela specifically to exploit that weakness.
It would be dangerous to read too much into Mexico’s victory, though. Manager Juan Carlos Osorio is an inveterate tinkerer and likes to change both personnel and tactics to exploit specific matchups against particular opponents. The fact that his plan against Germany worked doesn’t mean all that much when it comes to evaluating what will likely be a different plan and different personnel against South Korea.

In the lead up to the World Cup, Osorio started 12 different attackers across three friendlies. It’s entirely possible he will field a completely different attacking corps to take on South Korea than he did against Germany.

Mexico should expect to have lots of possession against a weaker South Korea side. They’re also a team that has recently struggled to turn extended stretches of possession into dangerous attacking opportunity. They have a reputation of playing down to their opponents because their ability to dominate a game has a nasty habit of not actually extending to scoring goals. South Korea’s defense is weak, but Mexico are not great at breaking down even mediocre sides that are committed to defending.

That’s even before factoring in that a draw wouldn’t hurt Mexico’s chances of qualifying much at all. A conservative, possession-based approach will serve Mexico well and leave the door open for the first 0-0 draw of the World Cup. Mexico’s win against Germany was a great result, but it shouldn’t make anybody too confident about them beating a weak South Korea side.

Germany vs. Sweden, 2 p.m. ET, FOX
Germany -204
Sweden +665
Draw +347
Bet To Watch
Over 2.5 goals

It hasn’t been a great start for favorites at the World Cup. Germany will try to turn that around on Saturday in Group F action against Sweden. The Germans commanded 61% of possession and had nine shots on target against Mexico but lost 1-0, and it actually could have been worse despite the stats advantage.

Sweden, on the other hand, are off to a perfect start this World Cup after beating South Korea, 1-0, in the opener. They were stifling all game and didn’t allow a shot on target. But that will be nearly impossible to replicate against Germany.

Timo Werner should be the main man up top for Germany although other lineup changes could be in store, such as Marco Reus for Thomas Muller. They need to be quicker with the ball to break down Sweden, but I expect them to adapt and adjust. Although the starting lineup hasn’t been announced yet, it’s hard to imagine head coach Joachim Löw sticking with the status quo.

Public perception plays a big role in sports betting, and it’s been very successful to fade the public in this World Cup because matches are so heavily bet. This goes for spreads and totals, in addition to moneylines, due to the influx of wagers.
For Germany-Sweden, 68% of public bettors have taken under 2.5 goals, but juice has started trending toward the over. Square bettors are remembering Sweden’s defensive effort and Germany’s inability to score, but sharper money is going the other way.

The German attack should be a lot more organized and fluid, so this is a unique contrarian spot to root for goals and the over.

Belgium vs. Tunisia, Group G
8 a.m. ET

Belgium were perhaps the most impressive World Cup favorites in the opening week of action, as they dismantled Panama 3-0. However, odds have shrunk from -400 to -260 vs. Tunisia over the past few days even though Belgium are garnering 78% of moneyline bets.

This is a solid indication that sharps are back on plucky underdogs Tunisia to get a result.

As for the total, nearly 70% of bets have come in on over 2.5, but juice is yet again moving toward the under.

South Korea vs. Mexico, Group F
11 a.m. ET

Everyone — and I mean everyone — is betting on Mexico (-138) to beat South Korea. The public has a ton of confidence in the Mexicans after they handed Germany a 1-0 loss in the opening group match, and they’re receiving an absurdly high 88% of moneyline tickets vs. South Korea. Do sharps feel the same way?

Not quite. Since Tuesday, Mexico’s odds have actually come down from -200, signaling smarter money on South Korea/Draw. Just 8% of tickets have come in on South Korea (+490) and only 4% on the draw (+273).

Germany vs. Sweden, Group F
2 p.m. ET

In the third matchup Saturday afternoon, Germany (-200) are expected to beat Sweden, and nearly 75% of public bettors feel the same way. The betting story around this game is the total, though, and there’s a great opportunity to capitalize.

The majority of bettors love the under, which is rare, and it’s accounted for 68% of O/U tickets. The over (2.5) has attracted just 32% of bets, but that’s where the juice keeps trending this week. This is a fantastic spot to fade the public and go contrarian with the over.

let's go as the action is heating up on this one

SOC [225306] TOTAL u2½-108 (TUNISIA vrs BELGIUM)

WC
2-0-1 +2.00

getting it now for the reasons above

SOC [225309] TOTAL o2½-102 (SWEDEN vrs GERMANY)



SOC [225309] TOTAL o2½-102 (SWEDEN vrs GERMANY)

SOC [225306] TOTAL u2½-108 (TUNISIA vrs BELGIUM)

WC
2-0-1 +2.00

Belgium -1.5 +115
Germany/Sweden O2.5 -117

Parlay
Belgium/Mexico/Germany 1 to win 2.5

Hedge:
Sweden +540 risk .5
South Korea +480 risk .5

Add

Mexico -137