Eagles @ Tigers
Hanwha Eagles (12-38):
BSKim is 1-1, 4.35 in two starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-5 Team in first 5 innings: 1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-2 Totals: 1-1

— Hanwha lost 11 of its last 14 games.
— Eagles lost 14 of their last 16 road games.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine road games.
— Eagles are 4-13 in series openers, 2-7 on road

Doosan Bears (29-21):
Alcantara is 2-0, 2.14 in his last three starts, 2-1, 3.12 in four starts here.
Teams’ record in his starts: 7-2 Team in first 5 innings: 8-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-9 Totals: under 4-1 last five

— Bears lost five of their last seven games.
— Doosan lost four of its last six home games.
— Over is 7-2 in Bears’ last nine games.
— Doosan is 10-7 in series openers, 3-4 at home

Tigers @ Dinos
Kia Tigers (26-21):
Gagnon is 2-0, 5.19 in his last three starts, 3-2, 4.29 in six road starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-4 Team in first 5 innings: 4-4-1
Allowed run in first inning: 4-9 Totals: over 3-1-1 last five

— Tigers are 10-6 in their last 16 games.
— Kia lost four of its last five road games.
— Under is 5-1 in last six Tiger games.
— Tigers are 11-6 in series openers, 6-3 on road

NC Dinos (34-15)
SYChoi is 0-0, 9.82 in two starts, allowing 8 runs in 7.1 IP. Dinos scored 20 runs in the two games.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-0 Team in first 5 innings: 2-0
Allowed run in first inning: 1-2 Totals: over 2-0

— NC won seven of its last ten games.
— Dinos won five of last seven home games.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Dinos are 11-6 in series openers, 5-4 at home

Twins @ Lions
LG Twins (28-22)
Wilson is 1-1, 4.30 in his last four starts, 3-1, 3.38 in his last five road outings.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-4 Team in first 5 innings: 2-4-3
Allowed run in first inning: 3-9 Totals: under 6-3

— Twins lost nine of their last 12 games.
— Twins won six of their last seven road games.
— Under is 5-1 in Twins’ last six games.
— Twins are 10-7 in series openers, 4-3 on road

Samsung Lions (27-24):
JHBaek is 2-0, 2.00 in his last three starts, 1-2, 6.75 at home.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-3 Team in first 5 innings: 2-4
Allowed run in first inning: 1-6 Totals: over 3-3

— Lions won eight of their last ten games.
— Samsung is 9-3 in its last 12 home games.
— Under is 9-4-1 in Lions’ last 14 home games.
— Lions are 8-9 in series openers, 5-4 at home

Wyverns @ Giants:
SK Wyverns (14-36):
Pinto is 1-1, 4.09 in his last four starts, 0-3, 11.17 in four road starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-5 Team in first 5 innings: 4-3-2
Allowed run in first inning: 4-9 Totals: 4-4-1

— Wyverns lost 13 of their last 15 games.
— SK lost 10 of its last 11 road games.
— Wyverns’ bullpen is 3-13 this season.
— Under is 12-4-1 in Wyverns’ last 17 games.
— SK is 5-12 in series openers, 2-6 on road

Lotte Giants (23-25)
Sampson is 2-3, 5.81 in five starts, 1-1, 4.36 at home.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-3 Team in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-5 Totals: over 3-2

— Giants lost eight of their last 12 games.
— Lotte won eight of its last 10 home games.
— Under is 7-3-1 in Giants’ last 11 home games.
— Lotte is 9-8 in series openers, 6-2 at home

On Thursday, in Korea, both the Hanwha Eagles (12-38) and SK Wyverns (14-36) lost again — bringing their respective losing streaks to four and five games — as both teams pace for record-setting 100-loss seasons in the KBO.

In Japan’s Central League, the Hanshin Tigers (2-10) are also pacing for a 100-loss season through two weeks of play, and they are already setting records in futility. The Orix Buffaloes (2-10) have a matching record in Japan’s Pacific League.

Bad baseball teams substantially underperform relative to their projections – just as good teams overperform those projections over the course of a full season. Think about the Marlins, Orioles, and Tigers as compared to the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees.

Typically, you can find betting value on these bad teams on almost any given day — whether playing their moneyline or trying the over on their team totals — but you need to be selective with your plays.

All three clubs I mentioned at the top appear to be in the midst of an offensive funk – but the Buffaloes (80 wRC+ in 2019), Eagles (78 wRC+), Tigers (80 wRC+ in 2019), and Wyverns (75 wRC+) should be scoring more frequently than they are; they just don’t cash in with two outs or runners in scoring position, while their opponents do.

Unfortunately for bad teams, this is a feature – not a bug.

LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions
Twins moneyline: -121
Lions moneyline: -106
Over/under: 9.5
Time: 5:30 a.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Probable Pitchers: LG Twins (Tyler Wilson) vs. Samsung Lions (Jung-hyun Baek)

The Twins (28-22) are 3-7 in their past ten games while the Lions (27-24) are 8-2, closing the standings gap between these two teams to 1.5 games, as the Lions have pulled within one game of the final playoff spot.

The season series between these two teams is tied 3-3, and all three games in this weekend’s series will be crucial. On Friday, Tyler Wilson (4.38 FIP) will face the Lions for the second time this season (7 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 6 K on May 2), while Jung-hyun Baek will hope to avenge a rough start against the Twins from June 4 (4 IP, 11 R, 14 H, 0 BB, 3 K).

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

The 32-year old Baek only managed 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) in 2019 (career 7.5 K/9) with a 1.46 strikeout to walk ratio (career 2.08 K/BB) – but his metrics have rebounded in 2020 (7.1 K/9, 3.00 K/BB) over a seven start sample.

In fact, after that rough outing against the Twins in early June, Baek has settled in nicely – allowing just four runs over his past four starts (24 IP, 15 H, 8 BB, 18 K).