let's close out the month on a good note
GL

Pool DNB

3 games tonight, going over teams, lines, etc.

BE CAUTIOUS! Teams are starting to lose players for the world cup. I know on the friendly match broadcast of LAFC/Dortmund they said 4 LAFC players are leaving for the WC and they are starters.

LMK thoughts.

Agree with Eagleseye. I am laying off until the WC

I am thinking about playing a few u3.5/3s but man i hate those.

i do however like:

MLS (Friday)
Houston/NYFC o3


Saturday
Champions League Final

Game over 3
1st Half o1.5 +120

NYFC has only had 2 games go under 3, opening game against a defensive S KC and another right right after. They have subs that can score too and just feel 3 is a good number here.

EE

eagleseye13,GL on that one, I lean over as well there.

Friday MLS

2* FC Dallas +300 vs Toronto

Toronto still not dominant with just 2 multi goal wins in 10 games this season and I think FC Dallas will compete strongly here. This game could easily go 1-1 deep into 2nd half and at +300 I will take my chance Dallas can pull of road win.

FC Dallas at Toronto FC (8 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Toronto FC -124, FC Dallas+358, Draw +272
Total: 3 goals (u-128)

Despite Toronto FC’s place in the table, they’re still one of the MLS Cup favorites (+1400) and are coming off a much-needed 2-1 home win over Orlando City. They’ve been getting healthier, especially in central defense, and will have Giovinco back on the roster following a red-card suspension.

FC Dallas have been the toughest team to beat this year with just one loss, but that hasn’t always translated into wins. Their five draws are a league-high, including four at home, and they squandered a late two-goal lead to Vancouver last weekend. They’ve played only three road games all season and will be very fortunate to get a point in Toronto Friday night.

Oddsmakers opened Toronto FC anywhere from -125 to -135, and the line quickly rose to -145 at some sportsbooks, such as 5Dimes. After the initial line movement toward Toronto FC, there was buyback on both FC Dallas and the draw to bring the odds down. Public bettors have actually taken the road side to win/draw, so it’s a great opportunity to go contrarian on the home favorite.

As much as I like FC Dallas this year, this is just a great spot at a short price to back Toronto FC . The lack of travel for two weeks gives the home side a big advantage, and FC Dallas are basically unproven on the road this season. I agree with the early line movement toward Toronto FC and love that they’re available at the original odds of -124 again.

New York City FC at Houston Dynamo (8:55 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Houston +115, NYC FC +222, Draw +279
Total: 3 goals (o-125)

The Dynamo have been tough to figure out this season as they’ve beaten some of the best (Atlanta) and lost to some of the worst (Minnesota). They’ve also found a way to go unbeaten in their last three matches (two wins, one draw) despite conceding multiple goals in each.

New York City FC have been blown out twice on the road by good teams this season (3-0 at Portland and 4-0 at NY Red Bulls) but are unbeaten in their 10 other matches. With 24 points, they’re just one behind Atlanta United for tops in the Eastern Conference and entire league.

For Friday’s matchup, Houston opened at +122 odds, implying a 45.05% chance of victory. The line has slightly moved in the Dynamo’s direction to +115 (a 46.51% win probability), which surprised me because they’re the inferior team. Even though Houston is at home, I don’t think it will be able to contain NYC FC. A high total of 3 and juice on the over suggests that goals will be scored, and I can see the road side coming out with a 2-1 or 3-1 victory. I love the value on NYC FC (+222) to secure all three points.

San Jose Earthquakes at Los Angeles Galaxy (11 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: LA Galaxy -151, San Jose +395, Draw +321
Total: 3 goals (o-123)

The drama continues for the LA Galaxy as they’ll be without Zlatan Ibrahimovic due to a red card for slapping an opponent. The Galaxy did find a way to beat the Impact that day, 1-0, after Ibra was sent off, so they can perhaps use that as a positive. However, the win came against the worst team in the league, and LA had previously lost three straight games by a 3-2 scoreline. They’re still outside of a playoff spot and have already lost three home matches.

San Jose wasn’t expected to do much this season and the Earthquakes haven’t. A 3-1 home loss to DC United last week may be the low point so far as they faced a 3-0 deficit within 37 minutes. They’re now the worst home team in all of MLS and are probably looking forward to getting out of San Jose for Friday night. They did beat LA twice last season and could use that as a confidence boost.

LA opened -150, and pubic bettors have had no problem laying that number. Despite the heavy action on the Galaxy, most sportsbooks haven’t budged. Although there are a few that have increased to -160/-165. LA is almost always publicly backed, so it’s no surprise that some books can get away with shading the lines.

The Earthquakes aren’t good, but I still can’t trust the Galaxy defense with or without possession. It’s a buy-low, contrarian situation, and I like the value on San Jose (+0.5 goals) at +130 odds.

The domestic football season is finishing this weekend with one of the greatest spectacles in the sport. The UEFA Champions League final is being contested between Real Madrid and Liverpool in Kiev. Between them, these two clubs have lifted the trophy an impressive 17 times. It is the Spanish side that has dominated the competition with 12 of those wins and they have been the team to beat recently. Zinedine Zidane’s men are looking to win the trophy for a third successive season and they head into Saturday as favourites to do just that.

Liverpool have surprised many across the continent this season with their entertaining brand of football. Jurgen Klopp has now reached the final of this competition with two different clubs, but he will be hoping to go one better with the Reds. This is his third European final and he has lost his previous two, the first in the Champions League with Borussia Dortmund and the second with Liverpool in the Europa League. He will believe that he has a point to prove and knows that his squad have enough about them to overcome Real Madrid on Saturday.

The La Liga season was one to forget for Real Madrid as they didn’t put up much of a fight as Barcelona romped to the league title. However, Zidane and the current players thrive in the Champions League. On their route to the final, they have had to beat PSG, Juventus and Bayern Munich, a much harder run of ties than Liverpool. They aren’t perfect, but they are difficult to live with, in Europe. Unlike their opponents, they have lots of experience of winning major trophies and that will give them the edge in Kiev.

INTERESTING STATS
James Milner has got eight assists in this season’s Champions League. If he gets another on Saturday, he will have recorded the most assists in a single campaign.
Cristiano Ronaldo is the competition’s top scorer with 15 goals. If he scores a brace on Saturday, he will match his own record in the Champions League of 17 goals in a single campaign.

KEY MEN
Salah


This season will be remembered for the record-breaking exploits of Mohamed Salah in the Premier League. The Egyptian arrived during the summer and many had doubts about his ability to break into this Liverpool team, but he finishes the campaign as the club’s most important player. In the Champions League, he has ten goals and four assists. It would take a brave man to back against him having an impact on Saturday. He will certainly have been marked out as the main danger by Zidane and his coaching staff. The reason Salah is so difficult to defend against is his close ball control and low centre of gravity. He seems to brush past opposition players with ease and thrives in tight spaces. There are likely to be goals on Saturday and if the 25-year-old is at his best, Liverpool have a fantastic chance of causing a surprise.

Ronaldo

There is only one choice to be the key man for Real Madrid and that is Cristiano Ronaldo. The Portuguese superstar continues to dominate European football, despite reaching the age of 33. Another Champions League triumph would see him emerge as the leading candidate to win a third Balon D’Or award. It would mark the fifth time that he had lifted the trophy and further reinforce his position as one of the greatest players in the history of the sport. As mentioned above, Ronaldo has scored 15 times in this season’s competition and he is going to finish as the leading scorer for another campaign. As he has progressed in age, the forward has had to adapt his game. He now makes fewer runs, but his movement is intelligent and he regularly finds a yard of space in the final third. In previous years, Ronaldo has stepped up a level in the final. Zidane will be hoping that theme continues on Saturday.

TEAM NEWS
James Milner and Emre Can have both been passed fit for the final. It would be a risk to start the latter considering he has barely kicked a ball in anger during recent months. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Joe Gomez won’t be available for the Premier League team as both are injured.

Real Madrid are expected to have a fully fit squad to select from on Saturday. Lucas Vasquez is expected to start for the Spanish team with Gareth Bale having to make do with a place on the bench.

VERDICT
This is a very difficult game to predict, as both teams have plenty of goals in their teams and question marks at the back. It is more than likely that there will be action at both ends and it would be a surprise if either keeps a clean sheet. An entertaining score draw followed by a crushing Ronaldo winner in extra time would be a horrible way for the season to finish for Liverpool, but it is a scenario that could play out.

Liverpool 2-3 Real Madrid (After Extra Time)

Aston Villa and Fulham will contend the last place in the Premier League at Wembley on Saturday in the Championship play-off final, a clash often described as the richest match in world football.

Aston Villa secured their travel to Wembley after Mile Jedinak scored the only goal of their two-legged semi-final clash with Middlesbrough, who failed to register a single shot on target in the second leg. Steve Bruce's men have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 matches. Six of Villa’s last seven games have ended with under 2.5 goals. The Villans recorded a 2-1 victory over Fulham when the sides met at Villa Park in October, but the Cottagers gained revenge in February (2-0).

Villa are without Neil Taylor and Axel Tuanzebe. Egyptian right-back Ahmed Elmohamady is a major doubt, with James Bree likely to replace the former Hull City man. Alan Hutton should continue to deputise at left-back due to Neil Taylor’s hamstring problem. Lewis Grabban is expected to spearhead the attack, with the likes of Robert Snodgrass, Albert Adomah, Jack Grealish and Conor Hourihane favourite to play behind him in a 4-1-4-1 formation. Mile Jedinak will anchor the midfield while Jason Terry and James Chester will form the centre-back duo.
Fulham best Championship team in 2018

Fulham fought back from a 1-0 first-leg deficit at Derby County to win 2-1 on aggregate. The Cottagers have been one of the best sides in Championship in 2018. They have won 22 and drawn six of their last 32 Championship matches and missed out on automatic promotion on the last day of the season. They recently had an amazing 23-match unbeaten streak that was broken on May 6 when they suffered a 3-1 defeat at the hands of Birmingham City.

Sheyi Ojo is out and while Floyd Ayite is back from a hamstring problem, Aboubakar Kamara is likely to feature from the off. Lucas Piazon will also be in contention for a start. The other two spots in attack will be occupied by Ryan Sessegnon and Aleksandr Mitrovic. The likes of Kevin McDonald, Tom Cairney and Stefan Johansen will play from the off in midfield while Matt Targett, Tim Ream, Denis Odoi and Ryan Fredericks will form the four man backline.

The stage is set for the most lucrative game in world soccer this Saturday — and no, I’m not referring to the final of the UEFA Champions League between Real Madrid and Liverpool.

While the winner of that clash will earn the game’s greatest accolade, it’s the English Championship playoff final that offers the biggest financial reward going by a huge margin.

In fact, the victor at Wembley between Fulham and Aston Villa this weekend will pocket a minimum of £160m ($213 million USD) in TV revenue by winning promotion to the Premier League, according to Deloitte.

That sum is spread over three years and could rise significantly still to roughly £280m ($373 million USD) should the promoted side avoid the drop in their first season back in the top flight. While the Champions League trophy will go down in a club’s history, the financial disparity between winning and losing prize funds from UEFA is only around £4m. Lifting the Championship playoff trophy, meanwhile, would go a long way toward helping either Fulham or Villa build a better future.

So what of the game itself? Well, for all intents and purposes, this is the chance that both clubs have deserved this season, having disposed of sides below them in the table in the semifinals.

Setting the Stage

Fulham, who just missed out on an automatic promotion spot, are favored to win the match at +143 (5Dimes). Villa are currently priced at +244. Keep in mind if you are betting on soccer that these lines are for regulation only. If the game is tied after 90 minutes, the draw (+210) cashes.

Fulham finished third and eventually sawed off sixth-placed Derby after a first-leg defeat, while Aston Villa ended fourth and dumped out the team directly below them in the form of Middlesbrough courtesy of just one Mile Jedinak goal across their two meetings.
It’s the nature of those two semifinal doubleheaders that has fed into the understandable narrative ahead of the finale and made the teams so difficult to separate in the odds.

Contrasting Styles

Fulham unquestionably play the more attractive football, but questions linger about their ability to cope with such a big occasion. The opposite is the general feeling toward Villa, who at times adopt a relatively pragmatic and defensive approach in matches such as these but have a coach — veteran manager Steve Bruce — and squad packed with experience when it comes to getting the result they need.

Six players in Bruce’s likely starting 11 have not only played in a playoff final at one level or another, but all six have playoff wins under their belt. Two more players have been promoted from the Championship, while two of the three remaining players are billed as the side’s most important if they are to secure the victory.

John Terry, the captain, has played out World Cups and won both Premier League and Champions League titles, while academy graduate Jack Grealish is the reformed character who has pulled the strings and been instrumental in helping his boyhood club book their place at Wembley.

Fulham, by contrast, don’t have a single playoff winner on their squad but do have star quality and a very definitive style of play that made them unbeatable for half of the regular Championship season, embarking on a 23-game run without defeat before losing at Birmingham on the final day. That loss will concern the Cottagers’ fans, however, given that when Fulham needed the victory that would have sealed automatic promotion, they ultimately crumbled against a side that was equally desperate for a win — with the Blues fighting a relegation battle.

Nevertheless, the circumstances in which Fulham came back to dispose of Derby in the last round will have given them a huge and much-needed boost. The Cottagers were just 45 minutes away from playoff heartache once again, but Slavisa Jokanovic’s men scored the two second-half goals required in their second leg to ensure that they would not miss out on this opportunity.

Finding the Right Angle

With all of that in mind, it makes finding the right bet more difficult in many ways. However, it also helps to narrow any search for a top tip and focus in on the right markets.

With little to separate the teams anyway, the intensity of the situation and what’s at stake will almost certainly lead to a cagey start to the match. Fulham will no doubt see the lion’s share of possession, but early on they are unlikely to take too many risks with their passing that would allow Villa to counter. The latter, meanwhile, will look to keep things tight, and as is usually the case in games of such magnitude — played at a neutral venue — getting to grips with the opposition and playing surface takes some time.

While it may seem irrelevant to look back at games that neither of these sides were involved in, the significance of the occasion on such matches is important to take into account. Therefore, the fact that excluding a three-year spell between 2010 and 2012, 15 of the last 18 Championship playoff finals have ended with one or other of the sides failing to score is worth considering.

The odds vary significantly amongst UK bookies on the “Both teams to score = No” bet, with Bet Victor offering the best price at a tempting 1.90 (-111). My tip for this one, however, would be on the scoreline staying at 0-0 come halftime, with Sky Bet posting odds of 2.62 (+162) on such an eventuality.

The games have been goalless in four of the last five playoff finals, and while this is an occasion not to be missed given the incredibly high stakes, it may well be a match that doesn’t really ignite until the latter stages.

Real Salt Lake at Seattle Sounders (Saturday, 5 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Seattle -169, Real Salt Lake +493, Draw +311
Total: 3 goals (u-123)

Real Salt Lake are rapidly sliding down the standings in the MLS and they find themselves as big road underdogs in Seattle. RSL have given up an unhealthy number of shots on target this season and are winless in their last 10 road games dating back to last season.

The Sounders aren’t doing much better and are stuck at the bottom of the MLS table. On a positive note, along with D.C. United, they’ve played the fewest number of matches (nine) in the league so there’s time to make up ground. They also have the advantage of extra rest, home-field advantage and complete ownership of Real Salt Lake at home since 2013 (winning all seven games).

On the negative side, they’ve managed to score just seven goals this season and have been shut out in six of nine games.

Seattle opened as big -162 favorites and took all early action to push the line up to -185/-190. At that point, the market received buyback on Real Salt Lake and the draw, so odds are now back to the opening numbers.

Both teams desperately need to improve, but Seattle really can’t afford to drop any points at CenturyLink Field against a weak opponent. The Sounders should win at home, but I’m not sure they’re healthy enough to warrant the high line of -169

Philadelphia Union at New York Red Bulls (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: NY Red Bulls -200, Philadelphia +547, Draw +357
Total: 3 goals (o-125)

Both clubs are coming off impressive victories last weekend with the Union demolishing Real Salt Lake, 4-1, and the Red Bulls beating Atlanta United on the road, 3-1.

New York has steadily become one of the top teams in the league and now listed at 10-1 to win the MLS Cup. Philadelphia, despite some recent success, is still a huge long shot at 80-1, but that’s a lot better than the 150-1 odds from just last week.

For Saturday night’s matchup in New York, the Red Bulls opened -200 and quickly dropped down to -180 before trickling back up to -200. Public bettors are having no problem laying the big number but I wouldn’t be so quick to count out Philadelphia on the road.

The Red Bulls have yet to draw a game all season, but I think that streak ends this weekend. By betting against NY, you’re going contrarian and selling very high since they’ve been one of the best teams in the league lately. Most bettors think this will be an easy home victory, especially since they just beat Atlanta, but this feels like a ‘trap’ game. I think Philadelphia will surprise people this weekend and like the value on the draw (+357).

Saturday MLS
3* RSL vs Seattle O 2.5(-151)

Good spot for Seattle attack to find back on net as they get one of worst defensive teams in MLS heading in this afternoon. Not crazy about the -151 here, but these two teams have averaged 3 Goal per game in last 10 meetings and RSL is allowing close to 3 in road affairs this year.I wouldnt be surprised to see Seattle burst out with 3 goals here like they did last month at home vs Minnesota. GL

2* Chicago vs Orlando City Draw +298

Chicago had only multi goal win in this series when they beat Orlando 4-0 last year.Orlando City has largely had tight games at home this year with exception of 3-1 win over RSL. These 2 sides look fairly evenly matched to me as 4 of last 7 between these 2 have ended in a Draw. GL

I did not play it, but good calls on the O3 in the Dynamo/NYFC. After giving up an early goal, the Dynamo completely dominated the game and ended up winning 3-1. It was a very entertaining game to be at

Houstonfan, I faded Toronto last night but not sure how much longer there will be value in doing such.Even with injuries they had some great shots that FC Dallas goalie outright robbed them from. If not for goalie play,it could have been a 2-1,3-1 Toronto W.

Current Odds

Fulham +146
Aston Villa +230
Draw +218

Total 2 (o-123)

It’s the final day of the calendar as far as European club soccer is concerned this Saturday, with two of the continent’s heavyweights aiming for one last knockout in the Champions League final in Kiev, Ukraine at 2:45 pm ET.

Setting the Stage
The usual suspects in the form of Real Madrid (+123) are the favorites, that’s for sure, but Liverpool (+211) are a rejuvenated giant relishing their underdog status. The Spaniards are aiming for an unprecedented third consecutive title, while the Reds are hoping to spoil the party and reclaim the crown after a 13-year wait since that remarkable night in Istanbul.

Will Cristiano Ronaldo or Mohamed Salah live up to their reputations as the real match winner for either side, or could a teammate step into the spotlight on the biggest stage in club soccer? It’s a contest that promises entertainment and goalmouth action galore.

Odds History
Liverpool’s highest odds to win the title reached +3500 in late September while Real Madrid peaked at +800 in late January.

How They Got Here
While Real Madrid may be the bookmakers’ choice to win this weekend, their path to Ukraine hasn’t run as smoothly as their opponents’. Zinedine Zidane’s men have lost twice in this season’s tournament and very nearly let a big first-leg advantage slip in their quarterfinal with Juventus. Los Blancos also tasted defeat to English opposition in the form of Tottenham in the group stages.

That will certainly give Liverpool confidence, and while many have labeled Madrid fortunate to have made it this far based on a few controversial decisions, the same can’t be said of Jurgen Klopp’s side. Barring a couple of shaky displays in the group stages, they’ve steamrolled every defense that they have played this far, scoring three or more goals in a game against each of their seven opponents.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, have found the net in all 12 of their matches to this stage, and two prolific offensive lines will certainly be confident of causing real problems for the fallible defense of their competitors.

Tactics
Tournament finals don’t always offer intriguing matchups, but in this case, Liverpool and Real Madrid have styles that are likely to make this fight an entertaining one.

Madrid are one of the few top teams in the world that aren’t invested in pressing the ball defensively, and are in fact surprisingly easy to pass through. They depend on their central defenders, Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane, often shielded by defensive midfielder Casemiro to do the bulk of the defending. Liverpool, on the other hand, are an enthusiastic midfield pressing machine. They look to force their opponents to turn the ball over in midfield and then create chances quickly against an exposed defensive underbelly.

If Liverpool fail to achieve that objective and Madrid are able to push them back and force them to defend in their own half, then Klopp’s backup plan will be to try and unleash Salah on the counterattack. Salah has been an exquisite attacking player this season, and most teams would leave the fullback tasked with defending his side in reserve, but Marcelo is an important attacking influence for Madrid. If Madrid force Liverpool back, it will effectively turn the match into a race. Will Madrid, with Marcelo creating for Ronaldo, be able to score before Liverpool are able to make them pay with Salah on the counterattack?
Metrics to Know
After an early-season shooting slump, Real Madrid’s numbers recovered to reflect the incredibly potent attacking side that everybody knew they were. They scored 94 goals, trailing only Barcelona’s 99 in La Liga; nobody else had more than 66. They actually led the league in expected goals with more than 91. The worry for Madrid remains on the defensive side of the ball. They conceded 44 goals, which was only the sixth-best total in Spain. That was roughly in line with expectations, as their expected goals conceded was just over 45, the fourth-lowest total in the league. Madrid is a phenomenal high-scoring team, and a merely average defensive one.

Liverpool aren’t quite the attacking side that Madrid are. They scored 84 goals, the second-most in the Premier League, but their expected goal total was slightly worse at roughly 77.5. That total, while still good for second-best in England, is significantly behind what Madrid put up over the course of their season. But on the other side of the ball, Liverpool’s strategy of pressing to cut down on opponent’s scoring chances makes them quite a bit stingier than Madrid. While they conceded 38 goals, tied for fourth in England, expected goals predicted that they should have given up a little under 36, the third-best total in the Premiership.

A team’s underlying numbers over the course of a season don’t necessarily always tell an accurate story of how a team plays. But in both Real Madrid and Liverpool’s case, the numbers are a faithful representation of what the teams do well. Madrid score a ton to cover up for some defensive vulnerabilities. Liverpool, while also extremely potent in attack, aren’t quite at Madrid’s level, but they make up for it with a more cohesive defense.

Market
Odds for the final have been available for three weeks, leaving plenty of time for bettors to place their wagers. Real Madrid opened +127 on the moneyline at Pinnacle, where it’s now +123, implying a 44.8% chance of victory in regulation. However, odds did fluctuate to as low as +119 and as high as +131 throughout the month. Here’s a look at consensus market odds over that span:

The high total of three goals (o-135) is a very exciting aspect to look forward to, especially for the casual fan. More than 80% of bettors have taken the over, and the entire market has increased the total (3 to 3.25) or the juice on the over (-130 to -135).
While there’s been plenty of support for Real Madrid, bettors around the market have also taken Liverpool to pull off the upset. Each side is getting a bit more than 40% of moneyline bets, while the draw is unsurprisingly the contrarian angle with just 17% of tickets. That’s where I tend to lean for finals, and I don’t see any reason to stray from that strategy in this one. It’s also not the worst thing to root for an extra 30 minutes of play between two of the best teams in the world.