Ravens (-3.5) @ Buccaneers
Ravens (4-2)
Baltimore won/covered last four games, scoring 28-35-41-30 points.
Ravens have outscored opponents 92-55 in first half.
Ravens have run ball for 205.3 yards/game.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1

Ravens are 9-4 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 64-25 as an NFL starter.
Baltimore is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Ravens are 10-4 ATS in last 14 games vs NFC teams.
NFC North teams are 12-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Ravens won their first Super Bowl on this field, 24 years ago.

Buccaneers (4-2)
Buccaneers scored 33-30-51 points in last three games.
Bucs had 24 points at halftime in all three of those games.
Tampa Bay scored 13 TD’s on its last 32 drives.
Bucs are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2

Since 2021, Bucs are 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Bucs are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
QB Mayfield is 46-50 as an NFL starter, 14-11 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay’s last three games went over the total.
Bucs are 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
NFC South home teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.

Baltimore won last five series games (3-0-2 ATS)
Ravens won last three trips to Tampa by combined 102-39 (34-13 average)
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.

Chargers (-1.5) @ Cardinals
Chargers (3-2)
Chargers scored 22-26-23 points in wins, 10-10 in losses.
Last three games, Chargers were outscored 39-3 in 2nd half.
Bolts are 14-17-1 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1-1

Chargers are 7-3-2 ATS last 12 games as road favorites.
Chargers are 10-7-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs NFC teams.
Chargers are 3-11 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less points.
QB Herbert is 33-35 as an NFL starter.
Under is 4-1 in their first five games.
AFC West road teams are 6-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

Cardinals (2-4)
Arizona lost three of last four games, scoring 13-14-13 in losses.
Cardinals are 16-12 ATS last 28 games coming off a loss.
In its two wins, Arizona outscored foes 31-7 in second half.
Team total: over 3-3
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3

QB Murray is 30-41-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 7-5 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Last four games, Arizona converted 12-40 on third down (14-24 first two games).
Last four games, opponents are 28-47 on third down.
Over is 4-2 in Arizona games this year.
NFC West underdogs are 1-7 ATS in non-divisional games.

Chargers won five of last six series games.
Bolts split last two visits here, both decided by a single point.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.

Michael Wilson (ARI) over 30.5 receiving yards vs Chargers (-125)

Last 5 games:
hit in 4/5
avg 46.4 / 52.8 in overs
+15.9 edge / +22.2 in overs

Not having Joey Bosa against a mobile quarterback like Kyler Murray stings, but Los Angeles really should be able to win this game. The Chargers are third in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.160) this year. They have been the best rushing defense in the league, while also being a top-five passing defense. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball, but they’re averaging only 22.2 points per game this year. And they scored 69 total points in the first two weeks of the year. Since Week 3, Arizona is 25th in the league in EPA per play (-0.078), and the Cardinals would be 26th in the league in that statistic if that was their mark over the course of the entire season. With that in mind, I find it hard to believe Arizona will be able to consistently march down the field against Los Angeles.

The Cardinals also happen to be 23rd in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.027) this year. That’s troubling against a Chargers team that loves to pound the rock. Los Angeles might not have any star running backs, but this team is going to be persistent in using the run to set up Justin Herbert and the passing game. And I’d be surprised if Herbert doesn’t take advantage of the Cardinals’ weak rushing defense by making some big throws over the top.

Los Angeles is simply a much better defensive team than Arizona, and I’m not sure the Cardinals are better than the Chargers on offense. So, even though this is a road game for Jim Harbaugh’s group, I’d be stunned if Los Angeles doesn’t find a way to pull this out. In Harbaugh’s coaching career, his teams are 17-3 straight-up as road favorites of 7 or less. And while a lot of that winning took place in San Francisco, this year’s team is 2-0 in that situation. Harbaugh is also 16-9 SU in games with lines of +3 to -3 in his career. He’s a winner and he gets the best out of his teams in situations like these.

Chargers vs. Cardinals Player Props
J.K. Dobbins Over 76.5 Yards (-113)

Dobbins has been one of the best stories of the season. The oft-injured running back has rushed for 438 yards and three touchdowns already, and he should be able to turn in a big game against the Cardinals. That said, I’m playing Dobbins to rush for at least 77 yards. That’s obviously a pretty high number, but Dobbins has rushed for at least 96 yards in three of the five games he has played this season. And Dobbins is now going up against arguably the worst rushing defense he has seen all year. I’m expecting him to flirt with 100 or so yards in this one, even with some other running backs likely to mix in for Los Angeles.

Chargers-Cardinals touchdown betting at BetMGM

Anytime TD
1. JK Dobbins -130
2. Marvin Harrison +150
3. Derius Davis +900
4. LAC Defense/Special Teams +600
5. James Conner -105

1st TD
1. Dobbins +550
2. Harrison +900
3. Conner +600
4. Kyler Murray +1100
5. Trey McBride +1400

Most bet (tickets) Chargers-Cardinals player props at BetMGM

1. J.K. Dobbins over 79.5 rushing yards

2. Marvin Harrison Jr. over 49.5 receiving yards

3. J.K. Dobbins over 16.5 longest rush

4. Justin Herbert over 194.5 passing yards

Chargers-Cardinals betting at BetMGM

Chargers open -2.5, now -1.5
▪️ 67% of bets, 54% of money on Chargers

Total open 43.5, now 44
▪️ 70% of bets, 73% of money on Over

Cardinals open +115, now +100
▪️ 47% of bets, 52% of money on Cardinals

Ravens-Buccaneers touchdown betting at BetMGM

Anytime TD:

1. Derrick Henry -200
2. Mike Evans +105
3. Lamar Jackson +140
4. Chris Godwin +115
5. Zay Flowers+150